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ANALYSTS SAY IRAN WILL TOP AGENDA FOR AZERBAIJANI PRESIDENT'S U.S. TRIP
Aida Sultanova
AP Worldstream
Apr 24, 2006
As the starting point for a pipeline that will pump 1 million barrels
of oil a day to Western markets, the former Soviet republic Azerbaijan
has long ranked as a strategic foothold for the United States in the
Caspian Sea region.
But it's the shared border with Iran, where up to 30 million ethnic
Azeris live, that has earned Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliev an
invitation to the White House this week, analysts say. Aliev leaves
Tuesday for a three-day visit on the invitation of President George
W. Bush.
"The Iranian problem will doubtless form the background to this
visit," said Ilqar Mammadov, an independent analyst. "The United
States probably wants to get some clear position from Azerbaijan on
this question, so that bearing this position in mind it can build
its further strategic plans."
Azerbaijan has sought to balance its aspirations for closer cooperation
with the United States with its former imperial master Russia and
its volatile neighbor Iran. Now the nation of 7.9 million faces the
question of whether it should attempt a role as mediator _ and what it
could respond to any request by Bush to join a coalition to pressure
Tehran to abandon its alleged nuclear arms program.
On a visit to the Azerbaijani capital, Baku, last week, Iranian
Defense Minister Mustafa Mohammad Najjar suggested Aliev could use his
Washington visit to "explain to the Americans, so that they correctly
understand a series of questions" concerning Iran. And Washington,
which cut virtually all relations with Iran 27 years ago, could send
a message to the Iranians through Aliev, should he choose to deliver
it next week when Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is due to
visit Baku for a regional economic conference.
But the more likely scenario is for U.S. officials to ask for support
from Azerbaijan.
"For America, it is important to announce that a Muslim country
is also taking part in the anti-Iranian coalition," said analyst
Zardushta Alizade. "This is the role being prepared for ...
Azerbaijan, although it doesn't answer the interests of the Azerbaijani
people since the proximity with Iran makes any willingness to cooperate
with the United States on this question very dangerous."
For Aliev, the top item on his Washington agenda will be the
grinding, 18-year-old conflict with Armenia over the enclave of
Nagorno-Karabakh. At least 30,000 people were killed and 1 million made
refugees during six years of war that ended with a shaky cease-fire
in 1994. Ethnic Armenian forces occupy the enclave inside Azerbaijan.
The United States, together with Russia and the Organization for
Security and Cooperation in Europe, is trying to mediate a resolution.
"We not only expect but demand that the United States ... exert
pressure on Armenia," said Ali Hasanov, a senior aide to Aliev.
Opposition leaders said they considered it unrealistic for Aliev to
expect any progress on Nagorno-Karabakh from his Washington visit.
And they complained that by hosting Aliev, the White House was turning
a blind eye to his government's democratic shortcomings, including last
fall's parliamentary elections that foreign observers said did not meet
international standards. The country's weak opposition was shrunk by
arrests and many campaign rallies were broken up with police beatings.
There has been "no development in the area of democratization" since
those elections, much less the allegedly fraudulent 2003 election that
cemented Aliev's hold on power following the death of his strong man
father, Geidar Aliev, said Ali Kerimli, the leader of the opposition
Popular Front of Azerbaijan. "So for us, this visit is as unexpected
as it is strange."
Even before the Iranian crisis heated up, U.S. criticism of Aliev's
domestic policies was muted, due in large part to Baku's role in
supplying the West with Caspian Sea oil through the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan
pipeline. The first shipments are due this June, and in the fall the
new Baku-Tbilisi-Erzerum gas pipeline will provide a new source of
energy for the Turkish market.
In addition to Bush, Aliev is scheduled to meet with Vice President
Dick Cheney, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, Energy Secretary
Samuel Bodman and National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley.
Aida Sultanova
AP Worldstream
Apr 24, 2006
As the starting point for a pipeline that will pump 1 million barrels
of oil a day to Western markets, the former Soviet republic Azerbaijan
has long ranked as a strategic foothold for the United States in the
Caspian Sea region.
But it's the shared border with Iran, where up to 30 million ethnic
Azeris live, that has earned Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliev an
invitation to the White House this week, analysts say. Aliev leaves
Tuesday for a three-day visit on the invitation of President George
W. Bush.
"The Iranian problem will doubtless form the background to this
visit," said Ilqar Mammadov, an independent analyst. "The United
States probably wants to get some clear position from Azerbaijan on
this question, so that bearing this position in mind it can build
its further strategic plans."
Azerbaijan has sought to balance its aspirations for closer cooperation
with the United States with its former imperial master Russia and
its volatile neighbor Iran. Now the nation of 7.9 million faces the
question of whether it should attempt a role as mediator _ and what it
could respond to any request by Bush to join a coalition to pressure
Tehran to abandon its alleged nuclear arms program.
On a visit to the Azerbaijani capital, Baku, last week, Iranian
Defense Minister Mustafa Mohammad Najjar suggested Aliev could use his
Washington visit to "explain to the Americans, so that they correctly
understand a series of questions" concerning Iran. And Washington,
which cut virtually all relations with Iran 27 years ago, could send
a message to the Iranians through Aliev, should he choose to deliver
it next week when Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is due to
visit Baku for a regional economic conference.
But the more likely scenario is for U.S. officials to ask for support
from Azerbaijan.
"For America, it is important to announce that a Muslim country
is also taking part in the anti-Iranian coalition," said analyst
Zardushta Alizade. "This is the role being prepared for ...
Azerbaijan, although it doesn't answer the interests of the Azerbaijani
people since the proximity with Iran makes any willingness to cooperate
with the United States on this question very dangerous."
For Aliev, the top item on his Washington agenda will be the
grinding, 18-year-old conflict with Armenia over the enclave of
Nagorno-Karabakh. At least 30,000 people were killed and 1 million made
refugees during six years of war that ended with a shaky cease-fire
in 1994. Ethnic Armenian forces occupy the enclave inside Azerbaijan.
The United States, together with Russia and the Organization for
Security and Cooperation in Europe, is trying to mediate a resolution.
"We not only expect but demand that the United States ... exert
pressure on Armenia," said Ali Hasanov, a senior aide to Aliev.
Opposition leaders said they considered it unrealistic for Aliev to
expect any progress on Nagorno-Karabakh from his Washington visit.
And they complained that by hosting Aliev, the White House was turning
a blind eye to his government's democratic shortcomings, including last
fall's parliamentary elections that foreign observers said did not meet
international standards. The country's weak opposition was shrunk by
arrests and many campaign rallies were broken up with police beatings.
There has been "no development in the area of democratization" since
those elections, much less the allegedly fraudulent 2003 election that
cemented Aliev's hold on power following the death of his strong man
father, Geidar Aliev, said Ali Kerimli, the leader of the opposition
Popular Front of Azerbaijan. "So for us, this visit is as unexpected
as it is strange."
Even before the Iranian crisis heated up, U.S. criticism of Aliev's
domestic policies was muted, due in large part to Baku's role in
supplying the West with Caspian Sea oil through the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan
pipeline. The first shipments are due this June, and in the fall the
new Baku-Tbilisi-Erzerum gas pipeline will provide a new source of
energy for the Turkish market.
In addition to Bush, Aliev is scheduled to meet with Vice President
Dick Cheney, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, Energy Secretary
Samuel Bodman and National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley.