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BAKU: Sabina Freizer: "US Should Think Of NK Conflict Settlement"

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  • BAKU: Sabina Freizer: "US Should Think Of NK Conflict Settlement"

    SABINA FREIZER: "US SHOULD THINK OF NK CONFLICT SETTLEMENT"

    Today, Azerbaijan
    April 27 2006

    "Energy and security issues are likely to dominate the 28 April meeting
    of President Bush and President Ilham Aliyev. It will be Aliyev's
    first visit since becoming Head of the oil-rich state bordering both
    Russia and Iran; and Teheran's nuclear ambitions are undoubtedly one
    of the main reasons Aliyev has been invited to the White House."

    As APA reports, International Crises Group Caucasus project leader
    Sabina Freizer has told that while expressing her attitude to
    Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev's visit to the US. Sabina Freizer
    stated that if the U.S. is keen to protect its energy and security
    interests, the main issue on the table should be the unresolved
    conflict in Nagorno Karabakh. For more than a decade, only a shaky
    cease-fire has kept Armenia and Azerbaijan from resuming their
    full-scale fighting over the small mountainous territory wedged
    between them and Iran. The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline and soon
    to be completed Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum gas pipeline, which Washington
    sees as critical to the West's energy security, pass within 30 miles
    of this flashpoint.

    In the past months, President Aliyev has intensified his bellicose
    rhetoric, threatening to withdraw from peace talks and to militarily
    recapture all territories currently occupied by Armenian backed
    forces. He doubled the 2005 military budget to $600 million in 2006,
    over 16% of Azerbaijan's total budget. He has also pledged to make
    military spending equal to the entire state budget of Armenia, and,
    propped up by oil revenues, the Azeri leader's threat is very real.

    In Washington President Aliyev should be told clearly that a military
    resolution to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is unacceptable.

    Instead, the US Government should - while making clear that it will
    be pressing Armenia equally strongly - push Azerbaijan to accept
    now the principles of a comprehensive peace deal which would include
    the renunciation of the use of force, the incremental withdrawal of
    Armenian-backed forces from all occupied territories around Nagorno
    Karabakh, the safe and voluntary return of all displaced persons,
    the reopening of all transport and trade routes closed as a result
    to the conflict, and a guarantee that the people of Nagorno Karabakh
    will be given the right to self-determination based on a referendum
    to be held after clear conditions are met.

    This is close to what the Organization for Security and Cooperation
    in Europe proposed in February, but there was little international
    pressure on Armenia and Azerbaijan to encourage them to sign the
    deal. As a first step President Aliyev should allow people-to-people
    contacts between the Armenian and Azerbaijani sides.

    Until now, the Bush Administration has claimed to have a
    three-dimensional approach to Azerbaijan, focusing on security,
    energy, and freedom through reform. President Aliyev was not granted
    an earlier visit to the White House because the 2003 presidential
    elections were considered to be seriously flawed and were followed by a
    violent crackdown on the opposition. The 2005 Azerbaijani Parliamentary
    Elections were another disappointment, which should have precluded an
    invitation to Aliyev less than six months after they were held. Some
    of the three dimensions are clearly more important than others.

    Even as democratic reform was lagging, Secretary of Defense Donald
    Rumsfeld traveled to Baku three times in 2003-2005. Most observers
    in Baku consider these visits to be cementing the relationships that
    could ease the way for the possible deployment of American troops
    in Azerbaijan to be used in actions against Iran. Today's invitation
    may be part of the Bush Administration's attempts to ratchet up the
    pressure on Tehran. Interestingly, however, Aliyev is preparing to
    welcome Iranian President Ahmadinejad in Baku in May, the second such
    meeting in Azerbaijan after the two countries signed a non aggression
    pact last year.

    According to Sabina Freizer, if US wants to ensure Azerbaijan's
    long-term support of its policies towards Iran, and overall regional
    security, its best bet is to first focus on securing a peaceful
    resolution of the existing Nagorno Karabakh conflict. While the
    Nagorno-Karabakh conflict remains unresolved, Azerbaijan can ill
    afford to undermine its improving relations with Tehran. At the same
    time, if Azerbaijan makes good on its threat to take military action
    against Nagorno-Karabakh, close to Iran's northern borders, it will
    undermine U.S. energy and security interests and cause the flight
    of foreign investment from Azerbaijan. The volatile South Caucasus
    region, plagued also by unresolved conflicts in Georgia, risks being
    completely destabilized, dragging into the fight neighboring Russia,
    Turkey and Iran. This perilous scenario is worth talking to Aliyev
    about as much as the threats of a nuclear Iran.

    URL: http://www.today.az/news/politics/25552.html

    From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
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