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BUSH COURTS AZERBAIJANI PRESIDENT AS PART OF BUILD-UP AGAINST IRAN
By Simon Whelan
World Socialist Web Site, MI
April 27 2006
Azerbaijani president Ilham Aliyev is to meet President George W.
Bush on April 28 in Washington. The surprise invitation extended to
Aliyev is wholly due to Azerbaijan's geographical proximity to Iran,
Washington's next likely military target.
Aliyev presides over one of the most corrupt economies in the world.
An ongoing fraud trial in New York has provided evidence of enormous
bribes and shakedowns at SOCAR, Azerbaijan's state oil company, in
the late 1990s. Aliyev was the vice president of SOCAR at the time
of these alleged scandals.
The ruling Aliyev clan, first under the presidency of Heidar Aliyev,
and then since 2003 his son Ilham, has yet to preside over a free and
fair election. Since their failure to win the corrupt 2003 election,
Azerbaijan's political opposition has hoped the Aliyev regime would
be weakened by its international pariah status. By inviting Aliyev to
Washington the Bush administration has burst these presumptions. The
invite was extended just one month after a US State Department report
strongly criticised the suppression of human rights in Azerbaijan
under Aliyev.
Whilst the Azerbaijani ruling elite has rejoiced at the invite,
some commentators in Baku have suggested that Aliyev is less than
delighted-not least because he is likely to be told in no uncertain
terms that his government must side with Washington in hostile
actions against Iran. The Eurasia Daily Monitor posed the question,
"Aliyev's Invitation to the White House: A Blessing or a Curse?"
whilst C.J. Chivers suggested in the New York Times that the visit
meant that for Washington "Oil and location trump all other concerns."
Since it came to power in the early 1990s the Aliyev clan has been
courted by both the Clinton and Bush administrations. Not only does
the country possess considerable reserves of oil and gas, but its
proximity to the Middle East, Central Asia and the Caspian Sea makes
it especially valuable. The recently opened Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan
oil pipeline which transports Caspian oil to Western markets
circumnavigates both Russia and Iran at the insistence of Washington.
A similar route is followed by a gas pipeline currently in construction
and close to completion.
Domestically, Azerbaijani government officials have sought to ridicule
suggestions of their recruitment into a military coalition against
Iran. Azeri Foreign Minister Araz Hasanov recently told television
reporters, "The reports are untrue. Moreover, how can this happen in
the absence of such a coalition?"
But Azerbaijan has little room for manoeuvre. Aliyev's ministers speak
reassuringly of the Azerbaijani and Iranian peoples sharing a common
Shia Muslim culture, but regional political analyst Zafar Guliyev
told the Day.az web site just after the invite was made public, "I
think they [the Americans] will try to get Azerbaijan's approval for
using their territory against Iran. To get Azerbaijan's participation
in the coalition is as important as it was during the Iraq campaign."
Guliyev explained, "For the time being, the Azerbaijani government
did well balancing in its foreign policy, but there are moments when
choice is inevitable."
In March, Assistant US Secretary of State Daniel Fried stated
that Washington was feeding the Azerbaijani government information
concerning their plans for Iran "because Azerbaijan has the right
to be aware about it." Fried added that he looked forward to the two
countries reaching consensus on the issue.
The Azerbaijani government already cooperates with Washington's
so-called war against terror by providing troops for the occupation
of Afghanistan, Iraq and Kosovo. The Aliyev regime has supported the
military encirclement of Iran by granting US forces over-flight rights
above Azeri territory. The Azerbaijani authorities are also assisting
American armed forces with a Pentagon-sponsored modernisation of a
former Soviet airfield that could be used by the US when completed.
Former United Nations weapons inspector Scott Ritter suggested in an
article for Al Jazeera last summer that the US military is setting up
the infrastructure for an enormous military presence in Azerbaijan
that will be utilised for a land-based campaign designed to capture
Tehran. He believes CIA paramilitary operatives and US Special Forces
are training Azerbaijani forces into special force units capable of
operating within Iran and mobilising the large Azeri ethnic minority
within Iran.
The Azeri minority is based predominately in the country's northwest,
what is called the Northern Tier of the Middle East, where Iran shares
borders with Turkey and with the South Caucasus states of Azerbaijan
and Armenia. The term Azerbaijan was the name given to the geographical
area on either side of the Araxes River long before the designation
of a distinct Azeri ethnic group.
While estimates vary, it is widely believed that the number of ethnic
Azeris living in Iran is at least double the population of Azerbaijan
itself, which numbers approximately 8 million. Sources close to Tehran
speak of 15 million, while Azeri separatists claim 30 million.
Azerbaijanis are easily the largest ethnic minority inside Iran,
outnumbering Kurds, Arabs, Turkmen and Baluchis. They are also
considered by regional commentators to be the best integrated ethnic
minority in Iran, sharing with ethnic Persians Islamic Shia beliefs.
Iran's supreme religious leader Ayatollah Ali Khameni was born in
Khamenah, a city in the Iranian West Azerbaijan province. Khameni is
half Azeri by birth and speaks the language.
Large sections of the Tehran bazaar are controlled by Iranian Azeris
and in the upper ranks of the military ethnic Azeris are numerous.
However, nationalist and separatist sentiment was given a large boost
by the formation of an Azerbaijani nation state in 1991 when capitalism
was restored in the former Soviet Union. Not wishing to see an Azeri
state flourish and thereby bolster separatist Azeri tendencies within
Iran, Tehran set out to destabilise Azerbaijan by supporting Armenia
and maintaining the war of attrition in Nagorno-Karabakh.
This tilting towards Yerevan by Tehran pushed the government in Baku to
more firmly move into Turkey's orbit and encouraged both anti-Russian
and anti-Iranian policies. The Popular Front administration of
Abulfaz Elcibey which ruled briefly between 1992 and 1993 pushed
Tehran further in an anti-Azerbaijani direction by making pan-Azeri
noises and claiming that Iran was a "doomed state."
Relations between Azerbaijan and Iran improved somewhat when Ilham's
father, Heidar Aliyev, pushed out Elcibey. However, recent altercations
between the two states over the carve-up of Caspian oil and gas have
set relations back once again.
An Azeri separatist movement exists in Iran in the shape of the
National Liberation Movement of South Azerbaijan (NLMSA). But it is
unclear just how much influence or support it has.
A further advantage of using Azerbaijan for an assault upon Iran is
the short flight distances for US military aircraft. Ritter believes
that by flying out of Azerbaijani bases, American military forces
can maintain a round-the-clock dominance of Iranian airspace.
A coastal road running alongside the Caspian Sea extends all the
way from Azerbaijan to Tehran. In this regard, Ritter explained how
US military planners have already begun war games calling for the
deployment of multi-divisional forces into Azerbaijan. In addition
logistical planning is at a well advanced stage regarding basing US
air and ground forces within Azerbaijan.
By Simon Whelan
World Socialist Web Site, MI
April 27 2006
Azerbaijani president Ilham Aliyev is to meet President George W.
Bush on April 28 in Washington. The surprise invitation extended to
Aliyev is wholly due to Azerbaijan's geographical proximity to Iran,
Washington's next likely military target.
Aliyev presides over one of the most corrupt economies in the world.
An ongoing fraud trial in New York has provided evidence of enormous
bribes and shakedowns at SOCAR, Azerbaijan's state oil company, in
the late 1990s. Aliyev was the vice president of SOCAR at the time
of these alleged scandals.
The ruling Aliyev clan, first under the presidency of Heidar Aliyev,
and then since 2003 his son Ilham, has yet to preside over a free and
fair election. Since their failure to win the corrupt 2003 election,
Azerbaijan's political opposition has hoped the Aliyev regime would
be weakened by its international pariah status. By inviting Aliyev to
Washington the Bush administration has burst these presumptions. The
invite was extended just one month after a US State Department report
strongly criticised the suppression of human rights in Azerbaijan
under Aliyev.
Whilst the Azerbaijani ruling elite has rejoiced at the invite,
some commentators in Baku have suggested that Aliyev is less than
delighted-not least because he is likely to be told in no uncertain
terms that his government must side with Washington in hostile
actions against Iran. The Eurasia Daily Monitor posed the question,
"Aliyev's Invitation to the White House: A Blessing or a Curse?"
whilst C.J. Chivers suggested in the New York Times that the visit
meant that for Washington "Oil and location trump all other concerns."
Since it came to power in the early 1990s the Aliyev clan has been
courted by both the Clinton and Bush administrations. Not only does
the country possess considerable reserves of oil and gas, but its
proximity to the Middle East, Central Asia and the Caspian Sea makes
it especially valuable. The recently opened Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan
oil pipeline which transports Caspian oil to Western markets
circumnavigates both Russia and Iran at the insistence of Washington.
A similar route is followed by a gas pipeline currently in construction
and close to completion.
Domestically, Azerbaijani government officials have sought to ridicule
suggestions of their recruitment into a military coalition against
Iran. Azeri Foreign Minister Araz Hasanov recently told television
reporters, "The reports are untrue. Moreover, how can this happen in
the absence of such a coalition?"
But Azerbaijan has little room for manoeuvre. Aliyev's ministers speak
reassuringly of the Azerbaijani and Iranian peoples sharing a common
Shia Muslim culture, but regional political analyst Zafar Guliyev
told the Day.az web site just after the invite was made public, "I
think they [the Americans] will try to get Azerbaijan's approval for
using their territory against Iran. To get Azerbaijan's participation
in the coalition is as important as it was during the Iraq campaign."
Guliyev explained, "For the time being, the Azerbaijani government
did well balancing in its foreign policy, but there are moments when
choice is inevitable."
In March, Assistant US Secretary of State Daniel Fried stated
that Washington was feeding the Azerbaijani government information
concerning their plans for Iran "because Azerbaijan has the right
to be aware about it." Fried added that he looked forward to the two
countries reaching consensus on the issue.
The Azerbaijani government already cooperates with Washington's
so-called war against terror by providing troops for the occupation
of Afghanistan, Iraq and Kosovo. The Aliyev regime has supported the
military encirclement of Iran by granting US forces over-flight rights
above Azeri territory. The Azerbaijani authorities are also assisting
American armed forces with a Pentagon-sponsored modernisation of a
former Soviet airfield that could be used by the US when completed.
Former United Nations weapons inspector Scott Ritter suggested in an
article for Al Jazeera last summer that the US military is setting up
the infrastructure for an enormous military presence in Azerbaijan
that will be utilised for a land-based campaign designed to capture
Tehran. He believes CIA paramilitary operatives and US Special Forces
are training Azerbaijani forces into special force units capable of
operating within Iran and mobilising the large Azeri ethnic minority
within Iran.
The Azeri minority is based predominately in the country's northwest,
what is called the Northern Tier of the Middle East, where Iran shares
borders with Turkey and with the South Caucasus states of Azerbaijan
and Armenia. The term Azerbaijan was the name given to the geographical
area on either side of the Araxes River long before the designation
of a distinct Azeri ethnic group.
While estimates vary, it is widely believed that the number of ethnic
Azeris living in Iran is at least double the population of Azerbaijan
itself, which numbers approximately 8 million. Sources close to Tehran
speak of 15 million, while Azeri separatists claim 30 million.
Azerbaijanis are easily the largest ethnic minority inside Iran,
outnumbering Kurds, Arabs, Turkmen and Baluchis. They are also
considered by regional commentators to be the best integrated ethnic
minority in Iran, sharing with ethnic Persians Islamic Shia beliefs.
Iran's supreme religious leader Ayatollah Ali Khameni was born in
Khamenah, a city in the Iranian West Azerbaijan province. Khameni is
half Azeri by birth and speaks the language.
Large sections of the Tehran bazaar are controlled by Iranian Azeris
and in the upper ranks of the military ethnic Azeris are numerous.
However, nationalist and separatist sentiment was given a large boost
by the formation of an Azerbaijani nation state in 1991 when capitalism
was restored in the former Soviet Union. Not wishing to see an Azeri
state flourish and thereby bolster separatist Azeri tendencies within
Iran, Tehran set out to destabilise Azerbaijan by supporting Armenia
and maintaining the war of attrition in Nagorno-Karabakh.
This tilting towards Yerevan by Tehran pushed the government in Baku to
more firmly move into Turkey's orbit and encouraged both anti-Russian
and anti-Iranian policies. The Popular Front administration of
Abulfaz Elcibey which ruled briefly between 1992 and 1993 pushed
Tehran further in an anti-Azerbaijani direction by making pan-Azeri
noises and claiming that Iran was a "doomed state."
Relations between Azerbaijan and Iran improved somewhat when Ilham's
father, Heidar Aliyev, pushed out Elcibey. However, recent altercations
between the two states over the carve-up of Caspian oil and gas have
set relations back once again.
An Azeri separatist movement exists in Iran in the shape of the
National Liberation Movement of South Azerbaijan (NLMSA). But it is
unclear just how much influence or support it has.
A further advantage of using Azerbaijan for an assault upon Iran is
the short flight distances for US military aircraft. Ritter believes
that by flying out of Azerbaijani bases, American military forces
can maintain a round-the-clock dominance of Iranian airspace.
A coastal road running alongside the Caspian Sea extends all the
way from Azerbaijan to Tehran. In this regard, Ritter explained how
US military planners have already begun war games calling for the
deployment of multi-divisional forces into Azerbaijan. In addition
logistical planning is at a well advanced stage regarding basing US
air and ground forces within Azerbaijan.