RADIO FREE EUROPE/RADIO LIBERTY, PRAGUE, CZECH REPUBLIC
_________________________________________ ____________________
RFE/RL Iran Report
Vol. 9, No. 15, 28 April 2006
A Review of Developments in Iran Prepared by the Regional Specialists
of RFE/RL's Newsline Team
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HEADLINES
* PERIOD SET FOR NEXT ELECTIONS
* CONSEVATIVE RIVALRIES HEAT UP
* HAMAS-LED GOVERNMENT GETS FINANCIAL COMMITMENT
* IRAN CELEBRATES 'ARMY DAY'
* IRANIAN SUBS TO BE EQUIPPED WITH RUSSIAN CRUISE MISSILES
* RUSSIA DEFENDS IRANIAN NUCLEAR PLANT PROJECT
* MOSCOW TALKS ON IRAN DEADLOCKED
* STUDENT GROUP WANTS CHANGES IN NUCLEAR POLICY
* AZERBAIJANI PRESIDENT WELCOMES IRANIAN DEFENSE MINISTER
* TEHRAN DIGS IN AS LATEST NUCLEAR CLAIM ELICITS 'CONCERN,' SKEPTICISM
* U.S. MEDIA REPORT MULTIPRONGED OFFICIAL APPROACH TO IRAN
* DRUG CONTROL ISSUE EMPHASIZED AS NEW 'CRACK' GAINS POPULARITY
* RATE OF AIDS REPORTEDLY FALLING IN IRAN
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PERIOD SET FOR NEXT ELECTIONS. Deputy Interior Minister for Political
Affairs Ali Jannati announced in Tehran on April 17 that the next
Assembly of Experts and municipal-council elections will take place
simultaneously, the Iranian Students News Agency (ISNA) reported. He
said the elections will be held in the month beginning on October 23,
although a precise date has not been selected. Jannati went on to say
that the Interior Ministry wanted to delay the Assembly of Experts
election until February 2007, but because the assembly rejected the
delay the Interior Ministry decided to move up the date of the
council elections. (Bill Samii)
CONSEVATIVE RIVALRIES HEAT UP. An intense rivalry between
conservative parties in Iran is being overshadowed by the nuclear
issue, as well as global concern over the country's support for
terrorism and its interference in other countries' affairs. This
rivalry will become more intense as autumn elections for an 86-member
clerical body -- the Assembly of Experts -- and for municipal
councils approach, and these elections will affect the issues that
interest the international community. RFE/RL discusses the current
status of party politics in Iran, with a focus on the conservatives.
The Islamic Revolution Devotees Society (Jamiyat-i
Isargaran-i Inqilab-i Islami) -- which President Mahmud Ahmadinejad
helped create and of which he is a central council member -- is
emerging as the vanguard of the new conservative movement in Iran.
The society's central council will hold its first session of the
new (Iranian) year soon, "Sharq" reported on April 4, and Central
council member Mujtaba Shakeri said that after electing a
secretary-general and other leaders, subsequent sessions will be
devoted to determining the party's program for the coming year.
The Devotees Society held its third congress in early March,
but Ahmadinejad was not in attendance. The president was in Malaysia
at that time, but "Sharq" suggested on March 4 that his absence could
be traced to the society's failure to support him in the first
round of the June 2005 election (the Isargaran backed Mohammad Baqer
Qalibaf;
http://www.rferl.org/featuresarticl e/2005/11/a4f01612-219e-4f62-9c8b-
5854e9f883ba.ht ml).
Most of the standing members of the society's central
council were reinstated, according to "Sharq." The newspaper names
President Ahmadinejad, legislator Fatemeh Alia, Ali Darabi, Abbas
Darvish-Tavangar, Economy and Finance Minister Davud Danesh-Jafari,
legislator Hussein Fadai, legislator Nafiseh Fayazbakhsh, Lutfollah
Foruzandeh, Hadi Imani, Ahmad Moqimi, Elias Naderan, Ahmad Nejabat,
Abdul-Hussein Ruholamini-Najafabadi, Reza Rusta-Azad, Mahmud
Saber-Hamishegi, Alireza Sarbakhsh, Mujtaba Shakeri, Sediqeh Shakeri,
Masud Sultanpur, Mustafa Tavakolian, and director of the hard-line
daily "Siyasat-i Ruz" Ali Yusefpur.
The Devotees Society split away from the older and more
traditional Coordination Council of Islamic Revolution Forces shortly
before the June 2005 presidential election. Such conservative
disputes were perhaps most apparent when the legislature rejected
four of President Ahmadinejad's prospective cabinet nominees.
Mujtaba Shakeri, a member of the Devotees central council, noted in
the October 4 "Etemad" that the new fundamentalists (commonly
referred to as "osulgarayan") do not have a firm grip on power yet.
"[They] are only present at the lower and middle-ranking posts of the
government and the parliament," he said. Shakeri said some two weeks
later that the Devotees Society has yet to reach consensus on its
relationship with the Coordination Council, ISNA reported on October
17.
Intrafactional disputes persisted, and Tehran Mayor Mohammad
Baqer Qalibaf referred to this problem when speaking to the Devotees
Society late in the year. Qalibaf warned that challenging the
president will have the long-term effect of undermining him and the
fundamentalists, "Kayhan" reported on December 3. Differences of
opinion are natural, he continued, but are acceptable only up to a
point.
Mohsen Rezai, secretary of the Expediency Council, also
referred to the harmful impact of the conservatives' disputes. In
a speech to the Devotees Society, he noted that the two conservative
wings have grown closer, "but a disagreement and a gap are still
evident among them," "Farhang-i Ashti" reported on January 3. "This
is extraordinarily threatening." Rezai chastised the older generation
of conservatives -- whom he called the "revolutionary forces" -- for
their failure to respond to public demands when they were in power.
When the new generation of fundamentalists seized the
political initiative by dominating the municipal council elections in
2003, the entity that grabbed headlines was the Islamic Iran
Developers Coalition (Etelaf-i Abadgaran-i Iran-i Islami). A
Developers-dominated Tehran council, in turn, selected Mahmud
Ahmadinejad as the capital's mayor. The Developers Coalition
continued its success in the 2004 parliamentary elections, and then
Ahmadinejad became president. The Developers Coalition was not a
hierarchical organization, and this became apparent shortly before
the June 2005 presidential election.
In late January 2006 the Young Developers (Abadgaran-i Javan)
submitted an organization application. This entity is distinct from
the Developers in the legislature -- two of its founders are members
of the Tehran municipal council, "Iran" reported on January 23, and
council chairman Mehdi Chamran said the new entity could leave the
current political elite behind. An editorial in "Sharq" on January 23
said creation of this entity changes the nature of fundamentalism.
Iranian fundamentalists, the editorial explained, reject modernity
and its symbols and defy progress, but by submitting to the rules of
party activity they are joining the modern world.
The Young Developers held its first congress in early March
in Tehran. Tehran council member Hassan Bayadi -- spokesman of the
Young Developers -- denied that this group is connected with the
Devotees Society, "Sharq" reported on March 4, but said it seeks good
relations with all the fundamentalists. Bayadi went on to say that
the Young Developers backs the president's administration,
"Farhang-i Ashti" reported on March 5.
The existence of the Young Developers and the fact that its
congress was held at the same time as that of the Devotees Society
underlines the conservatives' disputes, according to a March 4
analysis in "Etemad-i Melli." An editorial in "Sharq" on March 6
described a "new scene of conflict where one Developer stands against
the other," and it described three factions -- in the legislature, in
the municipal councils, and the president. As for the Devotees
Society, according to the "Sharq" editorial, Secretary-General Fadai
sees himself as the creator of the Developers Coalition.
Representatives of the Islamic Coalition Party, which is one
of the oldest conservative organizations and is a member of the
Coordination Council, dismissed reports of the council's demise
in February and March. Asadollah Badamchian, a member of the Islamic
Coalition Party's central council, went so far as to say that the
reformist movement is dead, and he hopes "our movement would never
experience the same fate," "Etemad" reported on February 28.
It is notable, therefore, that some six weeks later leaders
of the Islamic Coalition Party met with counterparts from the leading
non-clerical reformist organization, the Islamic Iran Participation
Front. Two years had passed since their last meeting, "Farhang-i
Ashti" reported on April 9. The newspaper ascribed this development
to the fact that the reformists are marginalized and the
conservatives resent what they see as an inadequate share of the
spoils. Discussing the same meeting, "Etemad" reported on April 9
that the more radical aspects of the right and left wings seem
irreconcilable from a distance. The parties agree on factors such as
the constitution and the Islamic Republic system, and their
differences turn into healthy competition at the negotiating table.
This meeting may be more representative of the
reformists' attempt to get back in power. "Siyasat-i Ruz" -- the
mouthpiece of the Devotees Society -- reported on April 9 that the
emphasis on the fundamentalists' divisions is just one of the
reformists' tactics. The reformist front sees the upcoming
council elections as an opportunity for it to begin its revival, just
as they were a beginning for the fundamentalists in 2003.
Domestically, reformists also intend to adopt a more populist
approach, strengthen their relations with the clergy, and pay greater
attention to traditional values in an effort to attract public trust.
And on the foreign front, the reformists will show themselves as
supporters of peace, democracy, human rights, and international
dialogue. (Bill Samii)
HAMAS-LED GOVERNMENT GETS FINANCIAL COMMITMENT. Foreign Minister
Manuchehr Mottaki announced on April 16 -- the third day of a
conference hosted by Tehran on support for the Palestinian Intifada
-- that Iran will provide the Hamas-led Palestinian Authority with
$50 million in aid, state television reported. Mottaki added that
Iran will encourage other Islamic countries to contribute.
Palestinian Prime Minister Ismail Haniya praised the
financial pledge, the Hamas-affiliated Palestine Information Center
reported on April 16, and spokesman Ghazi Hamad noted Iran's
"courage" and challenge of "American hegemony." "I think Arab states
ought to learn from Iran and stop being at America's beck and
call," Hamad added. The Palestine Information Center noted that
Minister Mottaki did not say "how and when" the payment will be made.
Confronted by inflation and unemployment, Iranians quoted by Reuters
said they would prefer that their government spend the money at home.
(Bill Samii)
IRAN CELEBRATES 'ARMY DAY.' Iran marked Army Day on April 18
with parades in different cities of infantry, air force personnel,
Basij members, and commandos, as well as armored and naval units,
state media reported. Missiles and tanks were also on display. The
parade in Tehran was attended by President Mahmud Ahmadinejad,
Islamic Revolution Guards Corps commander Yahya Rahim-Safavi, Defense
Minister Brigadier General Mustafa Mohammad Najjar, and other
officials. During the parade in Khuzestan Province, a provincial
television correspondent reported, marines, commandos, engineer
units, military police, and national police also participated.
Speakers at that parade included Ayatollah Mohammad Ali
Musavi-Jazayeri, the provincial representative of Supreme Leader
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, as well as Amir Beyzavi, the senior armed
forces commander in the south.
Speaking at the Army Day parade in Tehran, President Mahmud
Ahmadinejad said the Islamic Republic is not a threat to any country,
state television reported, and it seeks "peace, security, and
progress for all other nations." Ahmadinejad said Iran's enemies
are aware of the "courage, faith, devotion, and commitment to Islam"
of the armed forces. The armed forces, he continued, can defend the
country and "cut off the hand of any aggressor and brand their
forehead with the stain of regret."
Basij units staged military exercises in the Isfahan Province
localities of Khomeinishahr and Nain on April 19, provincial
television reported. The report said the aim of the exercises --
named Sepahian-i Muhammad (Muhammad's Guards) -- is to defend the
"values and sovereignty of the auspicious system of the Islamic
Republic of Iran." Early April exercises in the Persian Gulf elicited
international concern. (Bill Samii)
IRANIAN SUBS TO BE EQUIPPED WITH RUSSIAN CRUISE MISSILES. A
delegation of Russian shipyard officials is visiting Bandar Abbas, on
the Persian Gulf, to discuss the overhaul of diesel submarines,
Interfax reported on August 20. Iran purchased three Kilo-class
submarines from Russia in the 1990s. The Russians are from the
Severodvinsk-based Zvezdochka shipyard, and the repair and
modernization mentioned by their representative entails equipping the
subs with Club-S missiles that have a 200-kilometer range. The Club-S
is a naval cruise missile that comes in antiship and land attack
versions, and it reportedly is resistant to electronic
countermeasures.
General Yury Baluyevsky, who heads the General Staff, said in
Moscow on April 19 after talks with U.S. General James Jones, who is
NATO's supreme allied commander in Europe, that Russia will carry
out its agreements to sell arms to Iran, RIA Novosti reported.
Baluyevsky added: "I do not think that [the crisis regarding the
Iranian nuclear program] will turn into a war. Russia will not
propose the use of its armed forces in a [possible] military conflict
on either side." (Bill Samii, Patrick Moore)
RUSSIA DEFENDS IRANIAN NUCLEAR PLANT PROJECT. Sergei Kiriyenko, who
heads the Federal Atomic Energy Agency (Rosatom), said on April 20 in
Bishkek that "every country in the world, including Iran, has the
right to develop nuclear energy peacefully," news agencies reported.
He added that "the international community has the right to demand
unconditional guarantees of compliance with the nonproliferation
regime so that nuclear weapons are not built again. The goal is to
combine these two principles." Kiriyenko defended Russia's role
in construction of the Bushehr nuclear plant, saying that "all [spent
nuclear] fuel will be returned to Russia, so this cooperation
presents no problems for or threats to the [nuclear] nonproliferation
regime. This cooperation is exclusively for peaceful purposes. Since
it meets fully all international norms, we are continuing our work in
accordance with rules, norms, and signed agreements."
In Moscow, Foreign Ministry spokesman Mikhail Kamynin wrote
on the ministry's website (http://www.mid.ru) that "every country
has the right to decide for itself with whom and in what way it
cooperates with other states." He added that the Bushehr project
complies fully with international rules and norms.
In response to a recent U.S. appeal to Russia to cease
nuclear cooperation with Iran, Foreign Ministry spokesman Kamynin
said on April 20 that "only the UN Security Council is authorized to
make binding decisions on suspending cooperation with a state in any
sphere," RIA Novosti reported. He added that "the Security Council
has made no decisions on suspending nuclear cooperation with Iran."
Kamynin said on April 21 that Moscow will consider approving
sanctions against Tehran only if there is firm proof that its nuclear
program is not entirely peaceful, ITAR-TASS reported. (Patrick Moore)
MOSCOW TALKS ON IRAN DEADLOCKED. On April 17, Andrei Denisov, who is
Russia's outgoing ambassador to the United Nations, said in New
York that his country backs a diplomatic solution to the Iranian
nuclear crisis, and he called on Tehran to observe a moratorium on
uranium enrichment until April 28, when the International Atomic
Energy Agency (IAEA) is slated to make a report to the Security
Council, RIA Novosti reported.
Political representatives of the foreign ministries of China,
France, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States
discussed the Iranian nuclear issue in Moscow on April 18 but failed
to reach agreement, international media reported. U.S. Undersecretary
of State Nicholas Burns said afterward that the participants
recognized the "need for a stiff response to Iran's flagrant
violation of its international responsibilities." The Russian Foreign
Ministry said in a statement that "it is impossible to address the
international community's concerns about Iran [by] using force or
sanctions," Interfax reported.
Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov confirmed on April 19 that the
meeting produced no breakthrough. He repeated Russia's earlier
call for Iran to observe a moratorium on uranium enrichment until
April 28, when the IAEA is slated to make a report to the Security
Council. He noted that all participants in the April 18 talks called
on Iran to make "urgent and constructive moves" aimed at complying
with IAEA decisions, starting with stopping the enrichment work.
(Patrick Moore)
STUDENT GROUP WANTS CHANGES IN NUCLEAR POLICY. The Office for
Strengthening Unity (Daftar-i Tahkim-i Vahdat), Iran's largest
pro-reform student organization, has issued a statement calling for a
"temporary suspension of all nuclear activities" in the country,
RFE/RL reported on April 18. The statement criticized negotiations
that would locate the country's uranium enrichment and spent fuel
storage in Russia. It said in the statement that the hard-line by
Iranian officials on the nuclear issue has put the country in a
dangerous situation. In a further slap at the confrontational
diplomacy of the Ahmadinejad administration, it called for the
restoration of international confidence and renewal of support for
Tehran from international organizations. (Bill Samii)
AZERBAIJANI PRESIDENT WELCOMES IRANIAN DEFENSE MINISTER. Ilham Aliyev
welcomed a visiting Iranian delegation led by Defense Minister
Mustafa Mohammad Najjar on April 20, the Azertac news agency
reported. In a meeting with the Iranian defense minister at the
presidential palace, Aliyev discussed the recent expansion of
bilateral economic, energy, and political agreements and reviewed
plans for defense cooperation between Azerbaijan and Iran, ITAR-TASS
reported. In turn, the Iranian defense minister announced that Iran
stands "ready to provide" any assistance necessary to "develop
Azerbaijan's military," ANS-TV reported. Aliyev is also due to
meet with his Iranian counterpart during an upcoming Economic
Cooperation Organization summit next month. A new, significant level
of military relations between Azerbaijan and Iran was initiated in
2004 with the visit to Baku of then Iranian Defense Minister Ali
Shamkhani, and a reciprocal visit to Tehran by Azerbaijani Defense
Minister Safar Abiev last year that resulted in the signing of an
intergovernmental agreement on defense cooperation. (Richard
Giragosian)
TEHRAN DIGS IN AS LATEST NUCLEAR CLAIM ELICITS 'CONCERN,'
SKEPTICISM. White House spokesman Scott McClellan said in Washington
on April 17 that, if true, Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad's
announcement of research on the use of advanced P-2 centrifuges to
enrich uranium would be "a very serious concern," Reuters reported.
Some analysts are skeptical about such Iranian claims, "The
Washington Post" reported on April 17, while others suspect the P-2
centrifuges are part of a secret military nuclear program. In past
dealings with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Tehran
has claimed that experimental work on the advanced centrifuges ended
in 2003.
Meanwhile, the U.S.-based Institute for Science and
International Security's comparison of satellite imagery from
September 2002 through March 2006 indicates that Iran is expanding
and also burying some of its nuclear facilities, according to the
ISIS website (http://www.isis-online.org) on April 14. Halls at the
Natanz site's Pilot Fuel Enrichment Plant and its Fuel Enrichment
Plant were buried under concrete and dirt and could be 17 meters
underground, the ISIS claimed, and there is evidence of a new tunnel
entrance at the Isfahan uranium-conversion facility. (Bill Samii)
U.S. MEDIA REPORT MULTIPRONGED OFFICIAL APPROACH TO IRAN. Iran's
strong support for "rejectionist" Palestinian groups and the news
that it will provide the Palestinian Authority's Hamas government
with $50 million came on the heels of Iran's announcement that it
has successfully enriched uranium. Such developments concern the
United States and other countries over what they see as a growing
Iranian threat. Washington insists it will pursue diplomacy to
resolve the problems, but RFE/RL notes that the military option and
"democracy promotion" are also being considered.
An April 15 report in "The New York Times" discusses the
"newly created office of Iranian affairs in the State Department" and
notes the ongoing review of grant applications from groups seeking to
change the Iranian political process. This project would expand if
Congress approves the State Department's mid-February request for
$85 million to fund scholarships and increase Persian-language
broadcasting. An anonymous "State Department official" added that
groups applying for grants are "squabbling" over who would most
effectively promote reform in Iran, "The Washington Post" adds.
Also, the website of "The New Republic" on April 10 talks
about the creation of the Iran-Syria Operations Group (ISOG), which
reportedly will form policy and bypass the Iran desk at the State
Department, a significant development.
These institutional divisions are reflected in an April 13
report in "The New York Sun," which asserts that "the State
Department has quietly explored funding for an Iranian student radio
station." It appears from this report that some in the State
Department have approached Congress to divert some of the funding to
private broadcasters, while the Senate Foreign Relations Committee
and the House of Representatives' appropriations team that deals
with foreign aid want the funding to go to Radio Farda -- which is
jointly run by RFE/RL and the Voice of America (VOA) -- and the
VOA's television broadcasts.
There are suggestions, furthermore, that the Defense
Department should be involved with broadcasting to Iran.
The military approach to the Iranian problem has received
substantial attention lately. William M. Arkin, who specializes in
National and Homeland Security for "The Washington Post," writes on
April 13 that U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) has been planning for
the possibility of a full-scale war with Iran since at least May
2003. An analysis referred to as TIRANNT (Theater Iran Near Term) and
an invasion scenario called Karona are just two related efforts, as
is the Hotspur 2004 wargames of July 2004. The TOY Study (TIRANNT
Out-Year) is based on a war between Iran and the U.S. in 2011, and it
looks at the outcome of a conflict between U.S. Army division-sized
formations and Iranian ground units. The Army Concepts Analysis
Agency's BMD-I study, (Ballistic Missile Defense--Iran) studies
the number of Iranian missiles that could penetrate a coalition
missile defense.
The possibility of using military might to counter the danger
of Iran's nuclear efforts caused a major news splash roughly one
week ago. Reports in "The Forward" (April 7), the "New Yorker" (April
17), and "The Washington Post" (April 9) asserted that the United
States is making preparations for a possible military attack on Iran
in order to eliminate the potential nuclear threat. "The Washington
Post" put the military plans in the context of "a broader strategy of
coercive diplomacy," adding that options range from limited air
strikes on nuclear facilities to bombs and cruise missiles that also
target Intelligence and Security Ministry, Islamic Revolution Guards
Corps, and other government facilities. The ultimate objective is
"regime change," the "New Yorker" added, and U.S. special-operations
forces are in contact with Iranian ethnic minorities that oppose the
regime, it reported.
U.S. President George W. Bush on April 10 rejected the media
reports. "I read the articles [about Iran] in the newspapers this
weekend," Bush told an audience at the School of Advanced
International Studies at Johns Hopkins University in Washington,
D.C., according to Radio Farda. "It was just wild speculation, by the
way. What you are reading is wild speculation, which...happens quite
frequently here in the nation's capital." Bush stressed that the
United States does not want Iran to be armed with nuclear weapons,
Radio Farda reported, but he also insisted that this does not mean
going to war. "The doctrine of prevention is to work together to
prevent the Iranians from having a nuclear weapon.... I know we hear
in Washington [that], you know, prevention means force. It
doesn't mean force necessarily. In this case, it means
diplomacy."
Ali Larijani, secretary of Iran's Supreme National
Security Council, said in an April 10 interview with the Al-Jazeera
TV network that news reports of U.S. contingency plans for attacking
Iran with nuclear weapons represent "psychological warfare," Fars
News Agency reported. "These [kinds of] threats are only expressed by
parties who are totally incapable of acting on their promises,"
Larijani said.
Iranian state radio carried a commentary on April 10 that
attributed the media reports -- particularly that in the "New Yorker"
-- to psychological warfare. The commentary added that just a few of
author Seymour Hersh's reports and analyses come true, and this
specific one has been described as "idiotic" by British Foreign
Secretary Jack Straw. Such articles, the commentary continued, are
meant to undermine calm in Iran. They also are meant to undermine the
impressive accomplishments displayed at the previous week's naval
exercises in the south, the broadcaster concluded.
It is not just Tehran that is talking about mind games. "The
Forward" quotes former intelligence officers such as Graham Fuller of
the CIA, who note that this could be disinformation and psychological
warfare. (Bill Samii)
DRUG CONTROL ISSUE EMPHASIZED AS NEW 'CRACK' GAINS
POPULARITY. As the neighbor of Afghanistan, the world's biggest
producer of opium, Iran for years has had to contend with high levels
of drug smuggling and drug abuse. Tehran has applied different
strategies to contend with drug-related problems, and in recent
months it has tried new ones. Yet the drug-abuse problem continues,
and the drug of choice is increasingly compressed heroin (crack),
rather than opium or normal heroin. Meanwhile, Tehran is very active
in multilateral drug control initiatives, and it also engages
Afghanistan on a bilateral level in its effort to confront narcotics.
Iran emphasized supply reduction and interdiction for many
years as it tried to contend with the flood of narcotics coming from
Afghanistan in the 1990s and the first half of this decade. This
approach was matched with an emphasis on the punishment of people
involved with drugs, from addicts to smugglers. Imprisonment was
common, and individuals holding more than 30 grams of heroin or 5
kilograms of opium could be executed. To this day, the bulk of the
Iranian prison population comprises individuals arrested for drug
offenses. For example, 31 percent of the 46,930 people imprisoned in
the December-January period were addicts, Justice Minister Jamal
Karimirad said in "Farhang-i Ashti" on February 22, and another 40
percent were imprisoned for drug-related offenses.
Not everybody is convinced of the wisdom of this approach.
Ayatollah Hassan Marashi, who previously served on the High Council
for Judicial Development and in the judiciary, said many people who
become drug dealers do so out of economic necessity, "Aftab-i Yazd"
reported on January 28. Arresting and imprisoning such people is
counterproductive because their families only sink deeper into
poverty and sometimes turn to prostitution. "Punishment does not
correct people's behavior," he said. "We pay no attention to the
causes and we merely pursue the effects."
Nonetheless, arresting addicts continues to be government
policy. Fada-Hussein Maleki, secretary-general of the Drug Control
Headquarters, announced a nationwide plan to round up addicts that
would begin in the new Iranian year (after March 21). Maleki
explained that some 3,000 of the addicts on Tehran's streets are
sick, and the overall plan is to detain and treat up to 550,000 of
the most dangerous intravenous drug users, "Aftab-i Yazd" reported on
January 26.
Meanwhile, consumption habits are changing. The United
Nations Office on Drugs and Crime's (UNODC) 2005-07 "Strategic
Program Framework" for Iran that was released in June notes that
opium (smoked, injected, or consumed in tea), opium residue, and
cannabis are the commonly abused drugs. Abuse of heroin is on the
rise, according to the UNODC, and it is sniffed, smoked, or injected.
Six months later, Abdullah Roshan, Tehran's deputy
governor for political and security affairs, said the price for
compressed heroin (crack) has fallen and it is supplanting regular
heroin as the drug of choice for addicts, "Aftab-i Yazd" reported on
27 December. Roshan added that 700,000 tablets of the drug ecstasy
had been confiscated in Tehran in the previous nine months.
Iranian officials routinely say there are 1.2 million drug
addicts in the country, and an estimated 800,000 people abuse drugs
occasionally. The UNODC says roughly 2 percent of the country's
68 million residents abuse drugs. The State Department's Bureau
for International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs says in its
"International Narcotics Control Strategy Report -- 2006," which was
released on March 1, that an estimated 3 million Iranians abuse
opiates, with 60 percent of them addicted and the remaining 40
percent being casual users. "The latest opiate seizure statistics
from Iran suggest Iran is experiencing an epidemic of drug abuse,
especially among its youth," the report says.
As it has tried to come to terms with the scale of the
drug-control problem it faces, Tehran has become increasingly active
in multilateral drug-control bodies -- such as the Dublin Group and
the Paris Pact -- and it works closely with the UNODC. The Dublin
Group was established in 1990 as an informal coordination body that
meets to exchange views on international drug affairs (production,
trafficking, and abuse), make recommendations on ways to contend with
these problems, and coordinate members' approaches to these
problems. Dublin Group members are the European Union, Australia,
Canada, Japan, Norway, and the United States, and the UNODC
participates in its meetings.
The Mini-Dublin Group for Southwest Asia includes Dublin
Group members' diplomatic representatives in Iran, and its
meetings are attended by Iranian officials. The Mini-Dublin Group
works on the drug situation in Iran and related policy initiatives.
In addition to serving as a venue for analyzing priorities,
coordinating cooperation, and making recommendations, these meetings
serve as a venue for interacting with Iranian drug-control
authorities.
Lesley Pallett, chief of the Drugs and International Crime
Department at the British Foreign Commonwealth Office, described the
Mini-Dublin Group as a "key point of contact" between the Iranian
authorities and the international community when she was in Tehran in
September.
At a December 5 Mini-Dublin Group meeting in Tehran, Iranian
officials stressed the importance of creating a "security belt"
around Afghanistan, the Iranian Students News Agency (ISNA) reported.
Iranian drug-control chief Fada-Hussein Maleki said the United
Kingdom should be able to secure Afghanistan's borders, with
cooperation from the country's neighbors, because British troops
are present in Afghanistan. Maleki also praised the activities of the
UNODC in Iran and said the cooperation of France, Germany, Italy,
Iran, and the United Kingdom is increasing.
The Paris Pact is another multilateral drug-control group
with which Iran is involved, and Tehran hosted a Paris Pact
roundtable on September 13-14. The Paris Pact started with a meeting
of 55 countries in the French capital in May 2003, when they agreed
on the need for strong and coordinated border-control activities and
law enforcement along the main drug-trafficking routes. UNODC
subsequently launched the Paris Pact Initiative, with support from
France, Italy, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
Counternarcotics enforcement experts, as well as delegations
from 20 countries, the EU, the Economic Cooperation Organization,
Interpol, and UNODC participated in the September meeting in Tehran.
Opiates trafficking and drug-control activities in Iran were
discussed, as were the need to strengthen regional and international
cooperation on drug control in Iran. One of the newer initiatives
mentioned at this event was the Nomak Project, which collects and
analyses information on Southwest Asia heroin trafficking.
The UNODC has been working with Iran for approximately one
decade and has had an office in Tehran since the late-1990s.
According to its "Strategic Program Framework" for 2005-07, its
objectives are to assist Tehran in reducing narcotics trafficking,
contribute to prevention, treatment, and rehabilitation in connection
with drug abuse and HIV/AIDS, and to promote the rule of law. UNODC
has established quantifiable indicators for measuring the success of
its efforts. Roberto Arbitrio, head of the UNODC office in Tehran,
told the September Paris Pact meeting that the strategy for Iran was
developed in collaboration with the Mini-Dublin Group and with
Iranian authorities.
Brigadier General Hamid Maleki, a counternarcotics official
from the Iranian police, told the Paris Pact meeting that his country
has spent more than $900 million to secure the frontier with
Afghanistan and Pakistan by building border posts, watch towers,
barbed-wire fences, and trenches. Iran also trains Afghan border
guards and counternarcotics personnel, equips border posts in
Afghanistan, and provides motorcycles.
In mid-March, furthermore, the Iranian parliament authorized
the government to lend $20 million to other countries for demand
reduction and counternarcotics activities.
Iranian officials insist that the international community do
more to defray the associated costs, because Iranian efforts prevent
drugs from reaching Europe. For example, Mohammad Mehdi Akhundzadeh,
the Iranian ambassador in Vienna, said in a December 10 meeting with
UNODC chief Antonio Maria Costa that international aid to Iran is
"insufficient and trivial," the Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA)
reported.
Absent more assistance, Iran works directly with countries
that are fighting drugs, particularly Afghanistan. Drug-control
personnel from Iran, Afghanistan, and Pakistan met in Rawalpindi on
December 6 to exchange information, Associated Press of Afghanistan
reported. Afghan Counternarcotics Minister Habibullah Qaderi visited
Iran on January 3 to meet with his Iranian counterpart, discuss
cooperation, and inspect the border, Mashhad radio reported.
Ezzatollah Wasafi, the governor of Farah Province in Afghanistan,
visited Iran on January 14 and said he secured Tehran's pledge to
help his administration's poppy eradication efforts, Mashhad
radio reported. On February 28, Afghanistan signed an agreement with
Iran, China, and Pakistan on border security in an effort to control
smuggling, AFP reported. Qaderi and Maleki met again in Vienna on
March 18, during the meeting of the UN Commission on Narcotic Drugs
(CND), IRNA reported.
While some officials are critical of what they see as
inadequate international assistance, others believe something more
sinister is behind the drug-abuse problem in Iran. Ayatollah Mohammad
Emami-Kashani said in his February 24 Friday prayers sermon in
Tehran, "Another instance of their conspiracy is narcotics," state
radio reported. He did not identify the alleged conspirators but
continued: "They plot methods of importing drugs into our country and
promoting such ugly deeds among our youth so as to destroy the
backing of Islam and Islamic ideology.... They hatch plots to ruin
our young people." (Bill Samii)
RATE OF AIDS REPORTEDLY FALLING IN IRAN. Mohammad Mehdi Guya, who
heads the Health, Treatment, and Medical Education Ministry's
infectious disease department, said (on an unreported date) that as
of March 21 there were some 13,040 Iranians with AIDS, "Aftab-i Yazd"
reported on April 17. The figure was at 12,557 as of November, he
added. This marks an overall increase, he continued, but the
infection rate actually has fallen compared to the previous year.
Guya said being infected with AIDS can be attributed to individual
behavior, so education and media outreach are important in combating
the disease. (Bill Samii)
****************************************** ***************
Copyright (c) 2006. RFE/RL, Inc. All rights reserved.
The "RFE/RL Iran Report" is a weekly prepared by A. William Samii on
the basis of materials from RFE/RL broadcast services, RFE/RL
Newsline, and other news services.
Direct comments to A. William Samii at [email protected].
For information on reprints, see:
http://www.rferl.org/about/content/request.as p
Back issues are online at http://www.rferl.org/reports/iran-report/
_________________________________________ ____________________
RFE/RL Iran Report
Vol. 9, No. 15, 28 April 2006
A Review of Developments in Iran Prepared by the Regional Specialists
of RFE/RL's Newsline Team
******************************************** ****************
HEADLINES
* PERIOD SET FOR NEXT ELECTIONS
* CONSEVATIVE RIVALRIES HEAT UP
* HAMAS-LED GOVERNMENT GETS FINANCIAL COMMITMENT
* IRAN CELEBRATES 'ARMY DAY'
* IRANIAN SUBS TO BE EQUIPPED WITH RUSSIAN CRUISE MISSILES
* RUSSIA DEFENDS IRANIAN NUCLEAR PLANT PROJECT
* MOSCOW TALKS ON IRAN DEADLOCKED
* STUDENT GROUP WANTS CHANGES IN NUCLEAR POLICY
* AZERBAIJANI PRESIDENT WELCOMES IRANIAN DEFENSE MINISTER
* TEHRAN DIGS IN AS LATEST NUCLEAR CLAIM ELICITS 'CONCERN,' SKEPTICISM
* U.S. MEDIA REPORT MULTIPRONGED OFFICIAL APPROACH TO IRAN
* DRUG CONTROL ISSUE EMPHASIZED AS NEW 'CRACK' GAINS POPULARITY
* RATE OF AIDS REPORTEDLY FALLING IN IRAN
********************************************* ***************
PERIOD SET FOR NEXT ELECTIONS. Deputy Interior Minister for Political
Affairs Ali Jannati announced in Tehran on April 17 that the next
Assembly of Experts and municipal-council elections will take place
simultaneously, the Iranian Students News Agency (ISNA) reported. He
said the elections will be held in the month beginning on October 23,
although a precise date has not been selected. Jannati went on to say
that the Interior Ministry wanted to delay the Assembly of Experts
election until February 2007, but because the assembly rejected the
delay the Interior Ministry decided to move up the date of the
council elections. (Bill Samii)
CONSEVATIVE RIVALRIES HEAT UP. An intense rivalry between
conservative parties in Iran is being overshadowed by the nuclear
issue, as well as global concern over the country's support for
terrorism and its interference in other countries' affairs. This
rivalry will become more intense as autumn elections for an 86-member
clerical body -- the Assembly of Experts -- and for municipal
councils approach, and these elections will affect the issues that
interest the international community. RFE/RL discusses the current
status of party politics in Iran, with a focus on the conservatives.
The Islamic Revolution Devotees Society (Jamiyat-i
Isargaran-i Inqilab-i Islami) -- which President Mahmud Ahmadinejad
helped create and of which he is a central council member -- is
emerging as the vanguard of the new conservative movement in Iran.
The society's central council will hold its first session of the
new (Iranian) year soon, "Sharq" reported on April 4, and Central
council member Mujtaba Shakeri said that after electing a
secretary-general and other leaders, subsequent sessions will be
devoted to determining the party's program for the coming year.
The Devotees Society held its third congress in early March,
but Ahmadinejad was not in attendance. The president was in Malaysia
at that time, but "Sharq" suggested on March 4 that his absence could
be traced to the society's failure to support him in the first
round of the June 2005 election (the Isargaran backed Mohammad Baqer
Qalibaf;
http://www.rferl.org/featuresarticl e/2005/11/a4f01612-219e-4f62-9c8b-
5854e9f883ba.ht ml).
Most of the standing members of the society's central
council were reinstated, according to "Sharq." The newspaper names
President Ahmadinejad, legislator Fatemeh Alia, Ali Darabi, Abbas
Darvish-Tavangar, Economy and Finance Minister Davud Danesh-Jafari,
legislator Hussein Fadai, legislator Nafiseh Fayazbakhsh, Lutfollah
Foruzandeh, Hadi Imani, Ahmad Moqimi, Elias Naderan, Ahmad Nejabat,
Abdul-Hussein Ruholamini-Najafabadi, Reza Rusta-Azad, Mahmud
Saber-Hamishegi, Alireza Sarbakhsh, Mujtaba Shakeri, Sediqeh Shakeri,
Masud Sultanpur, Mustafa Tavakolian, and director of the hard-line
daily "Siyasat-i Ruz" Ali Yusefpur.
The Devotees Society split away from the older and more
traditional Coordination Council of Islamic Revolution Forces shortly
before the June 2005 presidential election. Such conservative
disputes were perhaps most apparent when the legislature rejected
four of President Ahmadinejad's prospective cabinet nominees.
Mujtaba Shakeri, a member of the Devotees central council, noted in
the October 4 "Etemad" that the new fundamentalists (commonly
referred to as "osulgarayan") do not have a firm grip on power yet.
"[They] are only present at the lower and middle-ranking posts of the
government and the parliament," he said. Shakeri said some two weeks
later that the Devotees Society has yet to reach consensus on its
relationship with the Coordination Council, ISNA reported on October
17.
Intrafactional disputes persisted, and Tehran Mayor Mohammad
Baqer Qalibaf referred to this problem when speaking to the Devotees
Society late in the year. Qalibaf warned that challenging the
president will have the long-term effect of undermining him and the
fundamentalists, "Kayhan" reported on December 3. Differences of
opinion are natural, he continued, but are acceptable only up to a
point.
Mohsen Rezai, secretary of the Expediency Council, also
referred to the harmful impact of the conservatives' disputes. In
a speech to the Devotees Society, he noted that the two conservative
wings have grown closer, "but a disagreement and a gap are still
evident among them," "Farhang-i Ashti" reported on January 3. "This
is extraordinarily threatening." Rezai chastised the older generation
of conservatives -- whom he called the "revolutionary forces" -- for
their failure to respond to public demands when they were in power.
When the new generation of fundamentalists seized the
political initiative by dominating the municipal council elections in
2003, the entity that grabbed headlines was the Islamic Iran
Developers Coalition (Etelaf-i Abadgaran-i Iran-i Islami). A
Developers-dominated Tehran council, in turn, selected Mahmud
Ahmadinejad as the capital's mayor. The Developers Coalition
continued its success in the 2004 parliamentary elections, and then
Ahmadinejad became president. The Developers Coalition was not a
hierarchical organization, and this became apparent shortly before
the June 2005 presidential election.
In late January 2006 the Young Developers (Abadgaran-i Javan)
submitted an organization application. This entity is distinct from
the Developers in the legislature -- two of its founders are members
of the Tehran municipal council, "Iran" reported on January 23, and
council chairman Mehdi Chamran said the new entity could leave the
current political elite behind. An editorial in "Sharq" on January 23
said creation of this entity changes the nature of fundamentalism.
Iranian fundamentalists, the editorial explained, reject modernity
and its symbols and defy progress, but by submitting to the rules of
party activity they are joining the modern world.
The Young Developers held its first congress in early March
in Tehran. Tehran council member Hassan Bayadi -- spokesman of the
Young Developers -- denied that this group is connected with the
Devotees Society, "Sharq" reported on March 4, but said it seeks good
relations with all the fundamentalists. Bayadi went on to say that
the Young Developers backs the president's administration,
"Farhang-i Ashti" reported on March 5.
The existence of the Young Developers and the fact that its
congress was held at the same time as that of the Devotees Society
underlines the conservatives' disputes, according to a March 4
analysis in "Etemad-i Melli." An editorial in "Sharq" on March 6
described a "new scene of conflict where one Developer stands against
the other," and it described three factions -- in the legislature, in
the municipal councils, and the president. As for the Devotees
Society, according to the "Sharq" editorial, Secretary-General Fadai
sees himself as the creator of the Developers Coalition.
Representatives of the Islamic Coalition Party, which is one
of the oldest conservative organizations and is a member of the
Coordination Council, dismissed reports of the council's demise
in February and March. Asadollah Badamchian, a member of the Islamic
Coalition Party's central council, went so far as to say that the
reformist movement is dead, and he hopes "our movement would never
experience the same fate," "Etemad" reported on February 28.
It is notable, therefore, that some six weeks later leaders
of the Islamic Coalition Party met with counterparts from the leading
non-clerical reformist organization, the Islamic Iran Participation
Front. Two years had passed since their last meeting, "Farhang-i
Ashti" reported on April 9. The newspaper ascribed this development
to the fact that the reformists are marginalized and the
conservatives resent what they see as an inadequate share of the
spoils. Discussing the same meeting, "Etemad" reported on April 9
that the more radical aspects of the right and left wings seem
irreconcilable from a distance. The parties agree on factors such as
the constitution and the Islamic Republic system, and their
differences turn into healthy competition at the negotiating table.
This meeting may be more representative of the
reformists' attempt to get back in power. "Siyasat-i Ruz" -- the
mouthpiece of the Devotees Society -- reported on April 9 that the
emphasis on the fundamentalists' divisions is just one of the
reformists' tactics. The reformist front sees the upcoming
council elections as an opportunity for it to begin its revival, just
as they were a beginning for the fundamentalists in 2003.
Domestically, reformists also intend to adopt a more populist
approach, strengthen their relations with the clergy, and pay greater
attention to traditional values in an effort to attract public trust.
And on the foreign front, the reformists will show themselves as
supporters of peace, democracy, human rights, and international
dialogue. (Bill Samii)
HAMAS-LED GOVERNMENT GETS FINANCIAL COMMITMENT. Foreign Minister
Manuchehr Mottaki announced on April 16 -- the third day of a
conference hosted by Tehran on support for the Palestinian Intifada
-- that Iran will provide the Hamas-led Palestinian Authority with
$50 million in aid, state television reported. Mottaki added that
Iran will encourage other Islamic countries to contribute.
Palestinian Prime Minister Ismail Haniya praised the
financial pledge, the Hamas-affiliated Palestine Information Center
reported on April 16, and spokesman Ghazi Hamad noted Iran's
"courage" and challenge of "American hegemony." "I think Arab states
ought to learn from Iran and stop being at America's beck and
call," Hamad added. The Palestine Information Center noted that
Minister Mottaki did not say "how and when" the payment will be made.
Confronted by inflation and unemployment, Iranians quoted by Reuters
said they would prefer that their government spend the money at home.
(Bill Samii)
IRAN CELEBRATES 'ARMY DAY.' Iran marked Army Day on April 18
with parades in different cities of infantry, air force personnel,
Basij members, and commandos, as well as armored and naval units,
state media reported. Missiles and tanks were also on display. The
parade in Tehran was attended by President Mahmud Ahmadinejad,
Islamic Revolution Guards Corps commander Yahya Rahim-Safavi, Defense
Minister Brigadier General Mustafa Mohammad Najjar, and other
officials. During the parade in Khuzestan Province, a provincial
television correspondent reported, marines, commandos, engineer
units, military police, and national police also participated.
Speakers at that parade included Ayatollah Mohammad Ali
Musavi-Jazayeri, the provincial representative of Supreme Leader
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, as well as Amir Beyzavi, the senior armed
forces commander in the south.
Speaking at the Army Day parade in Tehran, President Mahmud
Ahmadinejad said the Islamic Republic is not a threat to any country,
state television reported, and it seeks "peace, security, and
progress for all other nations." Ahmadinejad said Iran's enemies
are aware of the "courage, faith, devotion, and commitment to Islam"
of the armed forces. The armed forces, he continued, can defend the
country and "cut off the hand of any aggressor and brand their
forehead with the stain of regret."
Basij units staged military exercises in the Isfahan Province
localities of Khomeinishahr and Nain on April 19, provincial
television reported. The report said the aim of the exercises --
named Sepahian-i Muhammad (Muhammad's Guards) -- is to defend the
"values and sovereignty of the auspicious system of the Islamic
Republic of Iran." Early April exercises in the Persian Gulf elicited
international concern. (Bill Samii)
IRANIAN SUBS TO BE EQUIPPED WITH RUSSIAN CRUISE MISSILES. A
delegation of Russian shipyard officials is visiting Bandar Abbas, on
the Persian Gulf, to discuss the overhaul of diesel submarines,
Interfax reported on August 20. Iran purchased three Kilo-class
submarines from Russia in the 1990s. The Russians are from the
Severodvinsk-based Zvezdochka shipyard, and the repair and
modernization mentioned by their representative entails equipping the
subs with Club-S missiles that have a 200-kilometer range. The Club-S
is a naval cruise missile that comes in antiship and land attack
versions, and it reportedly is resistant to electronic
countermeasures.
General Yury Baluyevsky, who heads the General Staff, said in
Moscow on April 19 after talks with U.S. General James Jones, who is
NATO's supreme allied commander in Europe, that Russia will carry
out its agreements to sell arms to Iran, RIA Novosti reported.
Baluyevsky added: "I do not think that [the crisis regarding the
Iranian nuclear program] will turn into a war. Russia will not
propose the use of its armed forces in a [possible] military conflict
on either side." (Bill Samii, Patrick Moore)
RUSSIA DEFENDS IRANIAN NUCLEAR PLANT PROJECT. Sergei Kiriyenko, who
heads the Federal Atomic Energy Agency (Rosatom), said on April 20 in
Bishkek that "every country in the world, including Iran, has the
right to develop nuclear energy peacefully," news agencies reported.
He added that "the international community has the right to demand
unconditional guarantees of compliance with the nonproliferation
regime so that nuclear weapons are not built again. The goal is to
combine these two principles." Kiriyenko defended Russia's role
in construction of the Bushehr nuclear plant, saying that "all [spent
nuclear] fuel will be returned to Russia, so this cooperation
presents no problems for or threats to the [nuclear] nonproliferation
regime. This cooperation is exclusively for peaceful purposes. Since
it meets fully all international norms, we are continuing our work in
accordance with rules, norms, and signed agreements."
In Moscow, Foreign Ministry spokesman Mikhail Kamynin wrote
on the ministry's website (http://www.mid.ru) that "every country
has the right to decide for itself with whom and in what way it
cooperates with other states." He added that the Bushehr project
complies fully with international rules and norms.
In response to a recent U.S. appeal to Russia to cease
nuclear cooperation with Iran, Foreign Ministry spokesman Kamynin
said on April 20 that "only the UN Security Council is authorized to
make binding decisions on suspending cooperation with a state in any
sphere," RIA Novosti reported. He added that "the Security Council
has made no decisions on suspending nuclear cooperation with Iran."
Kamynin said on April 21 that Moscow will consider approving
sanctions against Tehran only if there is firm proof that its nuclear
program is not entirely peaceful, ITAR-TASS reported. (Patrick Moore)
MOSCOW TALKS ON IRAN DEADLOCKED. On April 17, Andrei Denisov, who is
Russia's outgoing ambassador to the United Nations, said in New
York that his country backs a diplomatic solution to the Iranian
nuclear crisis, and he called on Tehran to observe a moratorium on
uranium enrichment until April 28, when the International Atomic
Energy Agency (IAEA) is slated to make a report to the Security
Council, RIA Novosti reported.
Political representatives of the foreign ministries of China,
France, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States
discussed the Iranian nuclear issue in Moscow on April 18 but failed
to reach agreement, international media reported. U.S. Undersecretary
of State Nicholas Burns said afterward that the participants
recognized the "need for a stiff response to Iran's flagrant
violation of its international responsibilities." The Russian Foreign
Ministry said in a statement that "it is impossible to address the
international community's concerns about Iran [by] using force or
sanctions," Interfax reported.
Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov confirmed on April 19 that the
meeting produced no breakthrough. He repeated Russia's earlier
call for Iran to observe a moratorium on uranium enrichment until
April 28, when the IAEA is slated to make a report to the Security
Council. He noted that all participants in the April 18 talks called
on Iran to make "urgent and constructive moves" aimed at complying
with IAEA decisions, starting with stopping the enrichment work.
(Patrick Moore)
STUDENT GROUP WANTS CHANGES IN NUCLEAR POLICY. The Office for
Strengthening Unity (Daftar-i Tahkim-i Vahdat), Iran's largest
pro-reform student organization, has issued a statement calling for a
"temporary suspension of all nuclear activities" in the country,
RFE/RL reported on April 18. The statement criticized negotiations
that would locate the country's uranium enrichment and spent fuel
storage in Russia. It said in the statement that the hard-line by
Iranian officials on the nuclear issue has put the country in a
dangerous situation. In a further slap at the confrontational
diplomacy of the Ahmadinejad administration, it called for the
restoration of international confidence and renewal of support for
Tehran from international organizations. (Bill Samii)
AZERBAIJANI PRESIDENT WELCOMES IRANIAN DEFENSE MINISTER. Ilham Aliyev
welcomed a visiting Iranian delegation led by Defense Minister
Mustafa Mohammad Najjar on April 20, the Azertac news agency
reported. In a meeting with the Iranian defense minister at the
presidential palace, Aliyev discussed the recent expansion of
bilateral economic, energy, and political agreements and reviewed
plans for defense cooperation between Azerbaijan and Iran, ITAR-TASS
reported. In turn, the Iranian defense minister announced that Iran
stands "ready to provide" any assistance necessary to "develop
Azerbaijan's military," ANS-TV reported. Aliyev is also due to
meet with his Iranian counterpart during an upcoming Economic
Cooperation Organization summit next month. A new, significant level
of military relations between Azerbaijan and Iran was initiated in
2004 with the visit to Baku of then Iranian Defense Minister Ali
Shamkhani, and a reciprocal visit to Tehran by Azerbaijani Defense
Minister Safar Abiev last year that resulted in the signing of an
intergovernmental agreement on defense cooperation. (Richard
Giragosian)
TEHRAN DIGS IN AS LATEST NUCLEAR CLAIM ELICITS 'CONCERN,'
SKEPTICISM. White House spokesman Scott McClellan said in Washington
on April 17 that, if true, Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad's
announcement of research on the use of advanced P-2 centrifuges to
enrich uranium would be "a very serious concern," Reuters reported.
Some analysts are skeptical about such Iranian claims, "The
Washington Post" reported on April 17, while others suspect the P-2
centrifuges are part of a secret military nuclear program. In past
dealings with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Tehran
has claimed that experimental work on the advanced centrifuges ended
in 2003.
Meanwhile, the U.S.-based Institute for Science and
International Security's comparison of satellite imagery from
September 2002 through March 2006 indicates that Iran is expanding
and also burying some of its nuclear facilities, according to the
ISIS website (http://www.isis-online.org) on April 14. Halls at the
Natanz site's Pilot Fuel Enrichment Plant and its Fuel Enrichment
Plant were buried under concrete and dirt and could be 17 meters
underground, the ISIS claimed, and there is evidence of a new tunnel
entrance at the Isfahan uranium-conversion facility. (Bill Samii)
U.S. MEDIA REPORT MULTIPRONGED OFFICIAL APPROACH TO IRAN. Iran's
strong support for "rejectionist" Palestinian groups and the news
that it will provide the Palestinian Authority's Hamas government
with $50 million came on the heels of Iran's announcement that it
has successfully enriched uranium. Such developments concern the
United States and other countries over what they see as a growing
Iranian threat. Washington insists it will pursue diplomacy to
resolve the problems, but RFE/RL notes that the military option and
"democracy promotion" are also being considered.
An April 15 report in "The New York Times" discusses the
"newly created office of Iranian affairs in the State Department" and
notes the ongoing review of grant applications from groups seeking to
change the Iranian political process. This project would expand if
Congress approves the State Department's mid-February request for
$85 million to fund scholarships and increase Persian-language
broadcasting. An anonymous "State Department official" added that
groups applying for grants are "squabbling" over who would most
effectively promote reform in Iran, "The Washington Post" adds.
Also, the website of "The New Republic" on April 10 talks
about the creation of the Iran-Syria Operations Group (ISOG), which
reportedly will form policy and bypass the Iran desk at the State
Department, a significant development.
These institutional divisions are reflected in an April 13
report in "The New York Sun," which asserts that "the State
Department has quietly explored funding for an Iranian student radio
station." It appears from this report that some in the State
Department have approached Congress to divert some of the funding to
private broadcasters, while the Senate Foreign Relations Committee
and the House of Representatives' appropriations team that deals
with foreign aid want the funding to go to Radio Farda -- which is
jointly run by RFE/RL and the Voice of America (VOA) -- and the
VOA's television broadcasts.
There are suggestions, furthermore, that the Defense
Department should be involved with broadcasting to Iran.
The military approach to the Iranian problem has received
substantial attention lately. William M. Arkin, who specializes in
National and Homeland Security for "The Washington Post," writes on
April 13 that U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) has been planning for
the possibility of a full-scale war with Iran since at least May
2003. An analysis referred to as TIRANNT (Theater Iran Near Term) and
an invasion scenario called Karona are just two related efforts, as
is the Hotspur 2004 wargames of July 2004. The TOY Study (TIRANNT
Out-Year) is based on a war between Iran and the U.S. in 2011, and it
looks at the outcome of a conflict between U.S. Army division-sized
formations and Iranian ground units. The Army Concepts Analysis
Agency's BMD-I study, (Ballistic Missile Defense--Iran) studies
the number of Iranian missiles that could penetrate a coalition
missile defense.
The possibility of using military might to counter the danger
of Iran's nuclear efforts caused a major news splash roughly one
week ago. Reports in "The Forward" (April 7), the "New Yorker" (April
17), and "The Washington Post" (April 9) asserted that the United
States is making preparations for a possible military attack on Iran
in order to eliminate the potential nuclear threat. "The Washington
Post" put the military plans in the context of "a broader strategy of
coercive diplomacy," adding that options range from limited air
strikes on nuclear facilities to bombs and cruise missiles that also
target Intelligence and Security Ministry, Islamic Revolution Guards
Corps, and other government facilities. The ultimate objective is
"regime change," the "New Yorker" added, and U.S. special-operations
forces are in contact with Iranian ethnic minorities that oppose the
regime, it reported.
U.S. President George W. Bush on April 10 rejected the media
reports. "I read the articles [about Iran] in the newspapers this
weekend," Bush told an audience at the School of Advanced
International Studies at Johns Hopkins University in Washington,
D.C., according to Radio Farda. "It was just wild speculation, by the
way. What you are reading is wild speculation, which...happens quite
frequently here in the nation's capital." Bush stressed that the
United States does not want Iran to be armed with nuclear weapons,
Radio Farda reported, but he also insisted that this does not mean
going to war. "The doctrine of prevention is to work together to
prevent the Iranians from having a nuclear weapon.... I know we hear
in Washington [that], you know, prevention means force. It
doesn't mean force necessarily. In this case, it means
diplomacy."
Ali Larijani, secretary of Iran's Supreme National
Security Council, said in an April 10 interview with the Al-Jazeera
TV network that news reports of U.S. contingency plans for attacking
Iran with nuclear weapons represent "psychological warfare," Fars
News Agency reported. "These [kinds of] threats are only expressed by
parties who are totally incapable of acting on their promises,"
Larijani said.
Iranian state radio carried a commentary on April 10 that
attributed the media reports -- particularly that in the "New Yorker"
-- to psychological warfare. The commentary added that just a few of
author Seymour Hersh's reports and analyses come true, and this
specific one has been described as "idiotic" by British Foreign
Secretary Jack Straw. Such articles, the commentary continued, are
meant to undermine calm in Iran. They also are meant to undermine the
impressive accomplishments displayed at the previous week's naval
exercises in the south, the broadcaster concluded.
It is not just Tehran that is talking about mind games. "The
Forward" quotes former intelligence officers such as Graham Fuller of
the CIA, who note that this could be disinformation and psychological
warfare. (Bill Samii)
DRUG CONTROL ISSUE EMPHASIZED AS NEW 'CRACK' GAINS
POPULARITY. As the neighbor of Afghanistan, the world's biggest
producer of opium, Iran for years has had to contend with high levels
of drug smuggling and drug abuse. Tehran has applied different
strategies to contend with drug-related problems, and in recent
months it has tried new ones. Yet the drug-abuse problem continues,
and the drug of choice is increasingly compressed heroin (crack),
rather than opium or normal heroin. Meanwhile, Tehran is very active
in multilateral drug control initiatives, and it also engages
Afghanistan on a bilateral level in its effort to confront narcotics.
Iran emphasized supply reduction and interdiction for many
years as it tried to contend with the flood of narcotics coming from
Afghanistan in the 1990s and the first half of this decade. This
approach was matched with an emphasis on the punishment of people
involved with drugs, from addicts to smugglers. Imprisonment was
common, and individuals holding more than 30 grams of heroin or 5
kilograms of opium could be executed. To this day, the bulk of the
Iranian prison population comprises individuals arrested for drug
offenses. For example, 31 percent of the 46,930 people imprisoned in
the December-January period were addicts, Justice Minister Jamal
Karimirad said in "Farhang-i Ashti" on February 22, and another 40
percent were imprisoned for drug-related offenses.
Not everybody is convinced of the wisdom of this approach.
Ayatollah Hassan Marashi, who previously served on the High Council
for Judicial Development and in the judiciary, said many people who
become drug dealers do so out of economic necessity, "Aftab-i Yazd"
reported on January 28. Arresting and imprisoning such people is
counterproductive because their families only sink deeper into
poverty and sometimes turn to prostitution. "Punishment does not
correct people's behavior," he said. "We pay no attention to the
causes and we merely pursue the effects."
Nonetheless, arresting addicts continues to be government
policy. Fada-Hussein Maleki, secretary-general of the Drug Control
Headquarters, announced a nationwide plan to round up addicts that
would begin in the new Iranian year (after March 21). Maleki
explained that some 3,000 of the addicts on Tehran's streets are
sick, and the overall plan is to detain and treat up to 550,000 of
the most dangerous intravenous drug users, "Aftab-i Yazd" reported on
January 26.
Meanwhile, consumption habits are changing. The United
Nations Office on Drugs and Crime's (UNODC) 2005-07 "Strategic
Program Framework" for Iran that was released in June notes that
opium (smoked, injected, or consumed in tea), opium residue, and
cannabis are the commonly abused drugs. Abuse of heroin is on the
rise, according to the UNODC, and it is sniffed, smoked, or injected.
Six months later, Abdullah Roshan, Tehran's deputy
governor for political and security affairs, said the price for
compressed heroin (crack) has fallen and it is supplanting regular
heroin as the drug of choice for addicts, "Aftab-i Yazd" reported on
27 December. Roshan added that 700,000 tablets of the drug ecstasy
had been confiscated in Tehran in the previous nine months.
Iranian officials routinely say there are 1.2 million drug
addicts in the country, and an estimated 800,000 people abuse drugs
occasionally. The UNODC says roughly 2 percent of the country's
68 million residents abuse drugs. The State Department's Bureau
for International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs says in its
"International Narcotics Control Strategy Report -- 2006," which was
released on March 1, that an estimated 3 million Iranians abuse
opiates, with 60 percent of them addicted and the remaining 40
percent being casual users. "The latest opiate seizure statistics
from Iran suggest Iran is experiencing an epidemic of drug abuse,
especially among its youth," the report says.
As it has tried to come to terms with the scale of the
drug-control problem it faces, Tehran has become increasingly active
in multilateral drug-control bodies -- such as the Dublin Group and
the Paris Pact -- and it works closely with the UNODC. The Dublin
Group was established in 1990 as an informal coordination body that
meets to exchange views on international drug affairs (production,
trafficking, and abuse), make recommendations on ways to contend with
these problems, and coordinate members' approaches to these
problems. Dublin Group members are the European Union, Australia,
Canada, Japan, Norway, and the United States, and the UNODC
participates in its meetings.
The Mini-Dublin Group for Southwest Asia includes Dublin
Group members' diplomatic representatives in Iran, and its
meetings are attended by Iranian officials. The Mini-Dublin Group
works on the drug situation in Iran and related policy initiatives.
In addition to serving as a venue for analyzing priorities,
coordinating cooperation, and making recommendations, these meetings
serve as a venue for interacting with Iranian drug-control
authorities.
Lesley Pallett, chief of the Drugs and International Crime
Department at the British Foreign Commonwealth Office, described the
Mini-Dublin Group as a "key point of contact" between the Iranian
authorities and the international community when she was in Tehran in
September.
At a December 5 Mini-Dublin Group meeting in Tehran, Iranian
officials stressed the importance of creating a "security belt"
around Afghanistan, the Iranian Students News Agency (ISNA) reported.
Iranian drug-control chief Fada-Hussein Maleki said the United
Kingdom should be able to secure Afghanistan's borders, with
cooperation from the country's neighbors, because British troops
are present in Afghanistan. Maleki also praised the activities of the
UNODC in Iran and said the cooperation of France, Germany, Italy,
Iran, and the United Kingdom is increasing.
The Paris Pact is another multilateral drug-control group
with which Iran is involved, and Tehran hosted a Paris Pact
roundtable on September 13-14. The Paris Pact started with a meeting
of 55 countries in the French capital in May 2003, when they agreed
on the need for strong and coordinated border-control activities and
law enforcement along the main drug-trafficking routes. UNODC
subsequently launched the Paris Pact Initiative, with support from
France, Italy, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
Counternarcotics enforcement experts, as well as delegations
from 20 countries, the EU, the Economic Cooperation Organization,
Interpol, and UNODC participated in the September meeting in Tehran.
Opiates trafficking and drug-control activities in Iran were
discussed, as were the need to strengthen regional and international
cooperation on drug control in Iran. One of the newer initiatives
mentioned at this event was the Nomak Project, which collects and
analyses information on Southwest Asia heroin trafficking.
The UNODC has been working with Iran for approximately one
decade and has had an office in Tehran since the late-1990s.
According to its "Strategic Program Framework" for 2005-07, its
objectives are to assist Tehran in reducing narcotics trafficking,
contribute to prevention, treatment, and rehabilitation in connection
with drug abuse and HIV/AIDS, and to promote the rule of law. UNODC
has established quantifiable indicators for measuring the success of
its efforts. Roberto Arbitrio, head of the UNODC office in Tehran,
told the September Paris Pact meeting that the strategy for Iran was
developed in collaboration with the Mini-Dublin Group and with
Iranian authorities.
Brigadier General Hamid Maleki, a counternarcotics official
from the Iranian police, told the Paris Pact meeting that his country
has spent more than $900 million to secure the frontier with
Afghanistan and Pakistan by building border posts, watch towers,
barbed-wire fences, and trenches. Iran also trains Afghan border
guards and counternarcotics personnel, equips border posts in
Afghanistan, and provides motorcycles.
In mid-March, furthermore, the Iranian parliament authorized
the government to lend $20 million to other countries for demand
reduction and counternarcotics activities.
Iranian officials insist that the international community do
more to defray the associated costs, because Iranian efforts prevent
drugs from reaching Europe. For example, Mohammad Mehdi Akhundzadeh,
the Iranian ambassador in Vienna, said in a December 10 meeting with
UNODC chief Antonio Maria Costa that international aid to Iran is
"insufficient and trivial," the Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA)
reported.
Absent more assistance, Iran works directly with countries
that are fighting drugs, particularly Afghanistan. Drug-control
personnel from Iran, Afghanistan, and Pakistan met in Rawalpindi on
December 6 to exchange information, Associated Press of Afghanistan
reported. Afghan Counternarcotics Minister Habibullah Qaderi visited
Iran on January 3 to meet with his Iranian counterpart, discuss
cooperation, and inspect the border, Mashhad radio reported.
Ezzatollah Wasafi, the governor of Farah Province in Afghanistan,
visited Iran on January 14 and said he secured Tehran's pledge to
help his administration's poppy eradication efforts, Mashhad
radio reported. On February 28, Afghanistan signed an agreement with
Iran, China, and Pakistan on border security in an effort to control
smuggling, AFP reported. Qaderi and Maleki met again in Vienna on
March 18, during the meeting of the UN Commission on Narcotic Drugs
(CND), IRNA reported.
While some officials are critical of what they see as
inadequate international assistance, others believe something more
sinister is behind the drug-abuse problem in Iran. Ayatollah Mohammad
Emami-Kashani said in his February 24 Friday prayers sermon in
Tehran, "Another instance of their conspiracy is narcotics," state
radio reported. He did not identify the alleged conspirators but
continued: "They plot methods of importing drugs into our country and
promoting such ugly deeds among our youth so as to destroy the
backing of Islam and Islamic ideology.... They hatch plots to ruin
our young people." (Bill Samii)
RATE OF AIDS REPORTEDLY FALLING IN IRAN. Mohammad Mehdi Guya, who
heads the Health, Treatment, and Medical Education Ministry's
infectious disease department, said (on an unreported date) that as
of March 21 there were some 13,040 Iranians with AIDS, "Aftab-i Yazd"
reported on April 17. The figure was at 12,557 as of November, he
added. This marks an overall increase, he continued, but the
infection rate actually has fallen compared to the previous year.
Guya said being infected with AIDS can be attributed to individual
behavior, so education and media outreach are important in combating
the disease. (Bill Samii)
****************************************** ***************
Copyright (c) 2006. RFE/RL, Inc. All rights reserved.
The "RFE/RL Iran Report" is a weekly prepared by A. William Samii on
the basis of materials from RFE/RL broadcast services, RFE/RL
Newsline, and other news services.
Direct comments to A. William Samii at [email protected].
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