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Syria stands to gain from Lebanon's pain

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  • Syria stands to gain from Lebanon's pain

    Syria stands to gain from Lebanon's pain

    Brian Whitaker in Damascus
    Monday July 31, 2006
    The Guardian

    Hizbullah's stock is rising among the Arab public, and the Syrian
    regime is making the most of it, reports Brian Whitaker from Damascus

    The Bakdash ice-cream parlour is one of the great institutions of old
    Damascus, established in 1895 and renowned throughout the city. Among
    the more distinguished visitors to have sampled its produce is the
    king of Jordan, whose photo hangs prominently on the wall.

    Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hizbullah, may be too busy just
    now to drop in for a pistachio-sprinkled cornet but his photo has
    recently joined that of the king. Interspersed between the elegant
    chandeliers hanging from Bakdash's ceiling, meanwhile, are images of
    a fist clasping a rifle: the yellow-and-green flags of the Lebanese
    Shia movement.

    In a street around the corner, the owner of a jewellery shop also sings
    the praises of Hizbullah. He's an Armenian Christian, but that makes
    little difference. "It's the first time that Arabs hit Haifa," he says.

    Reaching for a scrap of paper, he draws a rough map of the
    Syrian-Lebanese-Israeli border and points to the Shebaa Farms, the
    tiny patch of land claimed by Lebanon but still occupied by Israel.

    "Five km, 10km - what does it matter? Give it back, sign an
    agreement. Finished!"

    Less than three weeks into the war in Lebanon, Hizbullah's standing is
    rising dramatically among the Arab public. The reasoning in Damascus
    is that, short of annihilating Lebanon's Shia population, Hizbullah
    cannot be destroyed. At some point, the argument goes, Israel will
    have to back off and Hizbullah will claim victory for having survived
    the onslaught.

    In anticipation of this, the Syrian regime, while trying to stay out
    of the conflict itself, is seeking to bask in Hizbullah's glory.
    Posters on sale in the streets, and displayed in the back of car
    windows, depict President Bashar al-Assad shoulder to shoulder with
    Hassan Nasrallah.

    "Syria doesn't have to do very much to be potentially in a position
    to gain," said one western diplomat in Damascus.

    After years of international isolation, the regime is acquiring
    leverage again through its ties with Hizbullah, though political
    analyst Sami Moubayed doubts Syria can impose its will on the Lebanese
    Shia if acting on its own.

    "Only with Syrian-Iranian support can this war come to an end,"
    he said. "Bringing Syria alone into talks will not end it."

    Damascus would also expect rewards for its help, he added. "The Syrians
    need carrots - big carrots." Among these would be a resumption of
    talks about the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights and the lifting of
    US-imposed sanctions.

    Internally, meanwhile, after a sticky period following the
    assassination of former Lebanese prime minister Rafik Hariri and the
    reluctant withdrawal of its troops from Lebanon, the Syrian regime
    looks far more secure. People have rallied round in support of a
    popular cause and reformists are once again in the wilderness.

    "The Syrian opposition will be silenced by growing dislike of the
    United States," Damascus-based commentator Joshua Landis wrote in his
    blog. "Syrians are less likely to trust the proposals for democratic
    or pro-western change being put forward by the opposition. A month
    ago there was considerable attention being paid to Assad's crackdown
    on the opposition. Not today."

    Another result of the war is that despite international efforts last
    year to end Syrian hegemony over Lebanon, Israeli bombing is driving
    the two countries together again.

    "Lebanon needs Syria more than ever," Mr Landis wrote. "It needs
    Syria to be kind to the many refugees who have found protection and
    safety in Syria. The Lebanese economy will be increasingly vulnerable
    to Syrian pressure."

    In the eyes of many Syrians, this simply proves that President Assad
    was right all along when he predicted the Lebanese would regret
    casting off the protection of their larger neighbour. His prophecy
    that without Syrian troops Lebanon would once again descend into
    civil war has not yet been fulfilled, though some Lebanese fear it
    may if Israeli attacks continue.

    Ultimately, the Damascus regime may emerge as the war's real winner,
    but the stakes are high and so are the risks, especially the risk of
    being drawn into direct conflict with Israel. In the last few days,
    Israeli warplanes have been probing Syrian airspace and Syrian
    forces responded - as they always do in such a situation - with
    anti-aircraft fire.

    A week ago Syria quietly raised its military alert to the highest level
    and cancelled all leave. All units are at full strength, contingency
    plans are in place, and troops and equipment have been dispersed in
    what one diplomat called a defensive posture.

    "They are being very careful not to be provocative," the diplomat said,
    though he thought there was still a 20% to 30% chance that unforeseen
    events might drag Syria into the war.
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