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RADIO FREE EUROPE/RADIO LIBERTY, PRAGUE, CZECH REPUBLIC
_________________________________________ ____________________
RFE/RL Iran Report
Vol. 9, No. 29, 10 August 2006
A Review of Developments in Iran Prepared by the Regional Specialists
of RFE/RL's Newsline Team
******************************************** ****************
HEADLINES:
* PREPARING FOR A DEFINING ELECTION
* POLITICIAN SAYS FORMER PRESIDENT CAN NO LONGER WIN VOTES
* REFORMERS DISTRUST PROPOSED ELECTION OVERHAUL
* FORMER STUDENT PROTESTER DIES IN PRISON
* ANOTHER STUDENT SENT BACK TO JAIL
* TRADE CHAMBER OFFICIAL SKEPTICAL ON PRIVATIZATION
* IRAN DISMISSES UN SANCTIONS THREAT
* VENEZUELAN PRESIDENT SIGNS SEVERAL AGREEMENTS IN IRAN
********************************************* ***************
PREPARING FOR A DEFINING ELECTION. Buoyed by success in municipal,
legislative, and presidential elections in recent years,
fundamentalists associated with President Mahmud Ahmadinejad have now
set their sights on the Assembly of Experts, the popularly elected
body of 86 clerics that supervises and selects Iran's supreme
leader.
The fundamentalists want Ahmadinejad's spiritual guide,
Ayatollah Mohammad Taqi Mesbah-Yazdi, to head the assembly. Their
support has put him in competition with Ayatollah Ali-Akbar
Hashemi-Rafsanjani, the assembly's deputy speaker, who lost the
presidency to Ahmadinejad in a runoff vote in 2005.
Mesbah-Yazdi's supporters shouted down Hashemi-Rafsanjani when he
tried to give a speech in Qom on June 4.
A commentary in a conservative weekly connected to
Mesbah-Yazdi, "Parto-i Sokhan" on May 10, also took shots at
Hashemi-Rafsanjani when it interpreted regulations on eligibility for
the Assembly of Experts. The weekly said that critics of Ayatollah
Ruhollah Khomeini's stance on the 1979-81 hostage crisis or on
the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq War are ineligible. So, too, it said, are those
who caused delays in the acquisition of peaceful nuclear technology
or who advocated backing down in the diplomatic process.
Mesbah-Yazdi's opponents have retaliated. They have
criticized the president's spiritual guide for his lack of
activism against the monarchy before Iran's Islamic Revolution.
They have also hinted that he is a member of a banned
religio-political organization called the Hojjatieh Society.
Mesbah-Yazdi has denied Hojjatieh membership. A prominent
intellectual and scholar of Islam, Abdolkarim Soroush, backed that
denial in a January 30 interview published on roozonline.com,
asserting that Mesbah-Yazdi is a follower of Iranian philosopher
Ahmad Fardid, who espoused fascistic ideas and derided the value of
individual voting.
Success in the assembly has more than a symbolic value. The
assembly plays the key role in selecting the supreme leader. But the
expectation that the incoming assembly will choose the next supreme
leader seems far-fetched. Ayatollah Khamenei is just 66 years old,
and Shi'ite clerics can achieve impressive longevity.
There was a rapid turnover in leading Shi'ite clerics in
the early 1990s, but when Grand Ayatollah Abolqasem Khoi died in
1992, he was 97 years old; Grand Ayatollah Mohammad Golpayegani died
in 1993 at the age of 96, and Grand Ayatollah Ali Araki died in 1994
at more than 100 years old. Predictions of Khamenei's passing
seem premature, therefore, as he would only be 75 by the time the
incoming assembly's term of office ends.
Forming Factions
The rivalry between Mesbah-Yazdi and Hashemi-Rafsanjani for
leadership of the Assembly of Experts reflects the divisions and
rivalries among factions that have appeared in the last two years. In
the last few months, there has been talk among the reformists of
creating alliances ahead of the assembly balloting in an effort to
head off the fundamentalist juggernaut. The former speaker of
parliament and current head of the National Trust Party, Hojatoleslam
Mehdi Karrubi, -- was quoted in the June 20 "Kargozaran" daily as
saying he is "looking for a coalition more than anyone." But he added
that he believes in "a coalition of the efficient, strong, and active
forces of the true reformists -- not with opportunists."
To this end, there have been meetings of pro-reform political
parties (specifically, the Mujahedin of the Islamic Revolution
Organization, the National Trust Party) with pro-reform clerical
ones.
This latter group includes the Militant Clerics Association
(Majma-yi Ruhaniyun-i Mobarez), the Qom Theological Seminaries
(Hozeh-yi Elmieh-yi Qom), the Society of Teachers and Reformers of
the Qom Islamic Theological Center (Majma-yi Mudarissin va Moshaei-i
Hozeh-yi Elmieh-yi Qom), and the Society of the Islamic Students
Following the Line of the Imam (Majma-yi Talab-i Khat-i Imam).
There also has been talk of shared lists of candidates the
parties might back. There could even be a joint list backed by
Hashemi-Rafsanjani, Karrubi, former President Hojatoleslam Mohammad
Khatami, and Ayatollah Seyyed Hussein Musavi-Tabrizi of the Qom
seminaries, "Aftab-i Yazd" reported on July 23.
Setting A Date
The legislature on July 26 approved the general outlines of a
bill that would permit holding elections for the Assembly of Experts
and municipal councils concurrently this year, Fars News Agency
reported. Some 149 out of 219 legislators reportedly backed the bill.
The elections are scheduled for November 17.
But a government spokesman, Gholam-Hussein Elham, said
recently that Ahmadinejad's administration opposes holding
concurrent elections, Mehr News Agency reported on July 19. The
spokesman argued that campaigning for the entities differs, and that
holding the elections simultaneously requires additional planning and
preparation.
There are other potential logistical difficulties. A bill
that would increase the voting age only for municipal elections was
recently approved by the parliamentary National Security and Foreign
Policy Committee, according to a Mehr News Agency report quoting
legislator Kazem Jalali on July 12. The current voting age is 15, and
the bill in question would raise the minimum to 18.
The Guardians Council, which supervises Assembly of Experts
elections and vets candidates, has announced that it approves
concurrent elections.
The Interior Ministry, which runs elections, has already
prepared its timetable, culminating in voting on November 17, "Mardom
Salari" reported on July 20.
Under the Interior Ministry's scenario, election
executive boards will be set up (September 2-6), candidates
registered (September 7-13), and paperwork forwarded to the proper
authorities by mid-September (September 14-16 from local governorates
to the Interior Ministry, and from there to the Guardians Council).
The Guardians Council will then have until October 16 to
assess the candidates' qualifications, and two additional days to
inform disqualified candidates.
Appeals can be filed from October 19-21, and the Guardians
Council's clerical members will review the appeals from October
22-31 and advise the Interior Ministry accordingly. The names of
eligible candidates will be announced on November 1, campaigning will
take place from November 2-15, and the election will be on November
17.
The Guardians Council's work will continue until late
December, as it investigates possible complaints about conduct of the
elections and campaigning, "Etemad-i Melli" reported on June 7.
Controversial Vetting Process
Guardians Council Secretary Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati warned in
a late-July interview that the law determines the vetting of
candidates for the Assembly of Experts, and that this could upset
people who have individual preferences, "Farhang-i Ashti" reported on
July 24. The Guardians Council's vetting of candidates has always
been controversial. Disqualifications of parliamentary hopefuls --
particularly incumbents -- met with protests in 2004. It took the
supreme leader's intervention to get disqualified cabinet members
reinstated in the 2005 presidential election.
Balloting for the Assembly of Experts takes place every eight
years. In the past, potential candidates had to demonstrate
"ijtihad," the highest form of Islamic learning, which enables
Koranic interpretation. They also had to have clean political and
legal records, and believe in the Islamic republic's system. In
the run-up to the October 1998 Assembly of Experts election, an
announcement emerged that all potential candidates must demonstrate
the proper political inclination, as well.
In the last Assembly of Experts election in 1998, the
Guardians Council accepted fewer than half of the 396 applicants. It
rejected eight of the nine women who applied, and the ninth
subsequently withdrew her candidacy. The council allowed a number of
incumbents to run again despite their having failed the "ijtihad"
examination -- arguing that they could run because Ayatollah Khomeini
had approved their credentials for previous elections.
New Questions
It is therefore unsurprising that questions over the vetting
process have preceded the upcoming Assembly of Experts election. At
the assembly's September meeting, some members reportedly
submitted a motion requiring more stringent academic qualifications
-- advocating "absolute ijtihad" rather than simply "relative
ijtihad." The daily noted that the former qualification permits one
to interpret Islamic law, while the latter qualifies one to issue
religious decrees (fatwa). Sponsors of that motion reportedly also
wanted the job of vetting candidates withdrawn from the Guardians
Council and given to seminarians. They argued that because some
council members also compete for the assembly, the normal vetting
procedure represents a conflict of interest.
In mid-June, the Interior Ministry declared in a communique
that individuals whose "ijtihad" abilities were endorsed by Ayatollah
Khomeini need not be vetted by the Guardians Council, "Aftab-i Yazd"
reported on June 15. A member of the Assembly of Experts,
Hojatoleslam Majid Ansari, added that there are other people whose
"ijtihad" skills have already been tested and proven -- including
noted seminarians and appointees of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali
Khamenei, like the head of the Judiciary and clerics on the Guardians
Council.
There also have been suggestions that prospective
candidates' religious skills should be examined by the
seminaries, rather than the Guardians Council. This is of particular
concern in instances when members of the council are candidates
themselves.
All this factional jockeying and rivalry could be countered
by the actions of the 12-man Guardians Council, which arguably
counters any democratic credentials of Iranian elections. This
unelected body is the ultimate arbiter in the voting: It has
overturned results in the past. All the more notable, then, that its
six clerical members are appointed by the supreme leader and the six
lawyer members are selected by the Judiciary chief and approved by
the parliament. The council has a tendency to reject the candidacies
of individuals it fears might aggressively oppose the status quo. Its
paring down of available candidates could also have an adverse impact
on voter participation. (Bill Samii)
POLITICIAN SAYS FORMER PRESIDENT CAN NO LONGER WIN VOTES. A
politician associated with former President and Expediency Council
Chairman Ali Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani believes Rafsanjani is no
longer a popular option at elections, but that his pragmatic ideas
are widely accepted among politicians, Fars news agency reported on
August 3. Mohammad Atrianfar, a member of the Executives of
Construction, a centrist party considered close to Rafsanjani, said
he believes "the [Rafsanjani] period in the executive sphere has come
to an end, but his ideas are brilliant." He said that -- as shown in
the 2005 presidential elections -- Rafsanjani "personally lacks the
capacity to win the people's votes, but people continue to
support his ideas." Atrianfar said reformers have moved toward these
ideas -- considered moderately conservative and pragmatic -- and
"even Mr. [President] Ahmadinejad resorts to this thinking...when he
wishes to win people's votes." He said Ahmadinejad, who competed
for the presidency against Rafsanjani in 2005, is legally president,
but "not in terms of...votes." Who, he asked, paid for a nationwide
publicity campaign that allowed posters of Ahmadinejad, then
Tehran's mayor, to appear in far-off villages in Iran? "There is
still a great question mark over [the polls] and great doubts on its
outcome, but everyone is keeping quiet to maintain national
cohesion," Fars quoted him as saying. (Vahid Sepehri)
REFORMERS DISTRUST PROPOSED ELECTION OVERHAUL. The Iranian Interior
Ministry is proposing changes to election rules, and reformers are
concerned the proposals would further restrict the range of aspirants
allowed to run for public office, local media reports from July 28
and 31 and August 1 suggest.
On July 28, the head of the ministry's electoral affairs
department, Ali Asghar Karandish, said a comprehensive
electoral-system bill would, among other conditions, require
presidential hopefuls to obtain the written support of 50 legislators
from 20 provinces and 20 members of the Assembly for Experts in order
to become candidates. The bill also tasks the paramilitary Basij
militia with reviewing informal reports by members of the public
concerning would-be candidates' private lives or reputations.
Jurist Bahman Keshavarz said on July 31 that the bill could
pave the way for intrusive inquiries into would-be candidates'
private lives, which he said is illegal, "Aftab-i Yazd" reported the
next day.
Mohammad Salamati of the reformist Mujahedin of the Islamic
Revolution Organization said such "proposals will...add to the
atmosphere of concern," the same daily reported on August 1.
Former legislator Yadollah Islami said such bills ensure "the
gap between the people and state will never be filled," "Aftab-i
Yazd" reported.
But Interior Minister Mustafa Pur-Mohammadi predicted on
August 1 that the bill will "open" the environment for voters and
candidates, and urged specialists and politicians to study it before
reacting, the Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) reported. (Vahid
Sepehri)
FORMER STUDENT PROTESTER DIES IN PRISON. Akbar Mohammadi, a student
jailed for his involvement in 1999 Tehran demonstrations, died in
Tehran's Evin prison on July 30 after what was described by
authorities as a nine-day hunger strike, Radio Farda reported on July
31, citing the Tehran provincial prisons chief Akbar Suleimani and
the Student Committee of Human Rights Reporters.
The Student Committee of Human Rights Reporters stated that
other prisoners saw marks on Mohammadi's body suggesting that he
had been beaten, Radio Farda reported. "This regime brings
Palestinian children to be treated in Tehran hospitals, and gives
them money and homes, but is destroying our children under torture,"
Mohammadi's father told Radio Farda on July 31. Mohammadi had
been sentenced to death but his sentence was commuted to 15 years in
prison, according to Radio Farda.
One of his lawyers, Khalil Bahramian, said Mohammadi had been
on indefinite leave in the past year but "recently he was rearrested
by agents without any warning and transferred to prison."
Another lawyer, Nemat Ahmadi, said prison doctors confirmed
Mohammadi was ill and should receive treatment outside prison but
Mohammadi told him by phone that prison authorities were depriving
him of necessary medicines, including for asthma, Radio Farda
reported.
Mohammadi was swiftly buried near the town of Amol in
northern Iran despite a request by his parents for an autopsy, Radio
Farda reported on August 1. Radio Farda reported that Mohammadi's
parents flew to Tehran from Turkey late on July 31 to see his body
but were detained by security forces at Tehran airport, then taken at
about 4 a.m. with their son's body toward Amol for a burial. Some
5,000 security agents were in the vicinity for this process, Radio
Farda quoted Reza Mohammadi, Mohammadi's brother, as saying.
Agents also prevented some 700-800 well-wishers and relatives who had
come to the airport to see the parents from entering the airport
building on July 31.
Another brother, Manuchehr Mohammadi, is also in prison for
political activism, and the parents asked that he be allowed to see
his brother's body, although it was not clear whether he did,
Radio Farda reported.
In Tehran on August 1, a spokesman for the state
coroner's office said Mohammadi's body had been delivered to
his family after an autopsy, presumably by a prison doctor, the
Iranian Labor News Agency (ILNA) reported. "The results of the tests
and cause of death will be announced in one month," the spokesman
said.
Amnesty International said on August 1 that Mohammadi's
death "casts a pall" on Iran's judicial system, adding that
"thorough reform of the criminal justice system is urgently needed"
to prevent "more deaths in Iranian custody," Radio Farda reported.
Amnesty International urged Iranian authorities to end torture,
provide fair and open trials for dissidents, and end the practice of
"delaying or denying medical care." Mohammadi was denied some of his
own medicines, according to a lawyer quoted by Radio Farda, but
Amnesty cited reports that he might have been administered another
drug that could have contributed to his death. His detention, since
1999, was reportedly characterized by routine torture, including
beatings by Intelligence Ministry operatives as he hung upside down,
Amnesty reported, attributing the accusation to "information
available."
The U.S. State Department condemned the "severe repression"
of dissidents in Iran and said Mohammadi's death in prison in
late July was "not an isolated case" but symptomatic of Iran's
repressive treatment of dissidents, AFP reported on August 2, quoting
State Department spokesman Sean McCormack. McCormack said Iranian
government measures against opponents are part of a "deliberate
campaign" to "silence the student movement, in particular, and civil
society more broadly." McCormack expressed concern over the fate of
two other prominent detainees -- former legislator Ali-Akbar
Musavi-Khoeni and trade unionist Mansur Osanlu. (Vahid Sepehri)
ANOTHER STUDENT SENT BACK TO JAIL. A student sentenced to prison for
involvement in the 1999 riots, Ahmad Batebi, was arrested at his home
on July 29, apparently while on prison leave, the Iranian Students
News Agency (ISNA) and the "Aftab-i Yazd" daily reported on July 30
and 31, citing lawyer Khalil Bahramian and Batebi's father. The
latter told ISNA on July 30 that family members "have no news of
Batebi for now." Tehran deputy prosecutor Mahmud Salarkia said Batebi
was arrested for failing to return to prison six months after his
prison leave had ended, "Aftab-i Yazd" reported.
Separately, a group of legislators visited Evin prison on
July 30 to inspect prisoners' conditions but were not allowed
into Section 209, where political or security-related prisoners are
kept, ILNA reported on July 30, quoting legislator Akbar Alami. Alami
said the visitors previously coordinated their visit with officials,
including a deputy intelligence minister, but "most regrettably" the
wing was closed, and this, he said, has "contributed to doubts" about
what goes on there. Alami said that if the "law is respected" in this
as in other wings, "there was no reason not to let [legislators]
visit" it, ILNA reported.
Batebi's wife, Somayeh Binat, told Radio Farda on August
2 that "my opinion is they are trying to physically eliminate Ahmad
and other political prisoners." She added, "They are effectively,
through torture, implementing the execution sentence they had
initially given Ahmad." (Vahid Sepehri)
TRADE CHAMBER OFFICIAL SKEPTICAL ON PRIVATIZATION. Alinaqi Khamushi,
the head of Iran's Chamber of Commerce, Industry, and Mines, said
in Tehran on August 2 that there is a "startling difference" between
state officials' verbal commitment to privatization and their
actions, ILNA reported. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei
recently instructed the government to implement parts of Article 44
of the constitution, which is expected to initiate a large-scale
privatization drive. But business circles remain skeptical of the
government's willingness to withdraw from vast sectors of the
economy. Khamushi asked at a meeting why "the government should sign
11 agreements with Venezuela without anyone from the private sector
being present." Particularly, he said, when Khamenei's written
instructions on Article 44 urge the government not to involve itself
in "operational" areas, presumably specific business projects, ILNA
reported (see "RFE/RL Newsline," July 31, 2006). "Iran's economy
has turned a page and, after 80 years, the overall policies in
Article 44 were announced," and this requires "a strong private
sector that can gain the capacity to engage in large investments,"
Khamushi said. He complained that the industries minister in late
July prevented a scheduled meeting between visiting Venezuelan
President Hugo Chavez and trade-chamber representatives. (Vahid
Sepehri)
IRAN DISMISSES UN SANCTIONS THREAT. Rejecting a July 31 Security
Council resolution (1696) ordering Iran to suspend nuclear enrichment
activities, President Mahmud Ahmadinejad said in Bojnurd in
northeastern Iran on August 1 that Iran is peaceful and law-abiding
but has a right to obtain "peaceful nuclear technology" and will not
allow itself to be addressed in a threatening manner, IRNA and
Reuters reported. "Iran's enemies should know that the Iranian
people consider the use of nuclear science a right, and will not
forego this right," IRNA quoted him as saying. Western powers are
concerned that Iran's nuclear know-how could help it make bombs.
On August 1, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Hamid Reza
Assefi said the resolution has no "legal facet or basis," IRNA
reported. Assefi said the resolution serves the purposes "of certain
states" and seeks to "swiftly close the road to negotiations." It
will have "no constructive results," he said, and "can only worsen
the situation."
A member of the parliamentary National Security and Foreign
Policy Committee, Kazem Jalali, said the same day that the "Americans
seem to be trying their best" to move the dossier from "the path of
dialogue" toward "creating some kind of crisis," ISNA reported.
Assefi said on July 30 that Tehran will reject a package of
international incentives designed to curb Iran's nuclear program
if the UN Security Council approves a draft resolution obliging Iran
to stop uranium enrichment by August 31 or face possible sanctions,
agencies reported. "If a resolution is issued" against Iran, Western
proposals "will no longer be relevant," ISNA quoted Assefi as saying.
He said the package of incentives is part of a negotiating process,
but that EU states have "changed their method" and are moving away
from talks by turning to the Security Council. He said Iran thinks
"those who wish to issue a resolution" targeting Tehran are trying
"to make the region's conditions" more critical, adding that this
"is very clear, and needs no explanation." He did not specify what
Iran would do in response to a resolution, but "my message to Western
parties is very clear," ISNA reported. (Vahid Sepehri)
VENEZUELAN PRESIDENT SIGNS SEVERAL AGREEMENTS IN IRAN. Venezuelan
President Hugo Chavez arrived in Iran on July 29 for a visit that
included meetings with President Ahmadinejad and Supreme Leader
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The leaders used their meetings to affirm
mutual support and to denounce Israel. They also signed several
agreements.
On July 29, Khamenei told Chavez that the Americans are using
Israel to wage a war intended to create an "American Middle East,"
but "they had overlooked the Lebanese people in their calculations,"
ISNA reported the same day. He said Hizballah resistance has
obstructed plans to "create a Middle East made of puppet regimes,
with [Israel] as the main axis."
On July 30, Ahmadinejad presented Chavez with a medal for his
"outstanding efforts against imperialism" at a ceremony in Tehran
University, the setting for more condemnations of Israel, ISNA and
Fars News Agency reported the same day. Ahmadinejad said Israel was
created "as a permanent aggression and threat" to regional states and
a means to "loot" their wealth through fear, leading to arms
purchases from Western firms. Chavez denounced Israel's "fascist
actions" in Lebanon and Gaza. The United States, Chavez said, is
stuck in a "quagmire" in Iraq, Palestine, and Afghanistan, and "we
can together defeat America's imperialism and save the world.
America is defeated," ISNA reported.
Iran and Venezuela signed 11 agreements at the end of
President Chavez's visit to Tehran in sectors that include oil,
petrochemicals, and housing, IRNA reported on July 30. The two states
agreed to form a joint housing-construction firm, cooperate to
provide petrochemicals and oil-related training and education, and
launch joint ventures to make bicycles and pharmaceuticals.
The directors of state-affiliated Petropars and Petroleos de
Venezuela (PDVSA) signed a memorandum of understanding on oil
exploration and extraction, while Petroleum Ministers Kazem
Vaziri-Hamaneh and Rafael Ramirez Carreno signed an agreement on
cooperation between their ministries. Other documents signed were in
aviation, the environment, and manufacturing, IRNA reported. The
presidents and oil ministers of Iran and Venezuela, and Iran's
health and industry ministers were among senior officials attending
the ceremony. Chavez left Tehran for Hanoi late on July 30, IRNA
reported. (Vahid Sepehri)
**************************************** *****************
Copyright (c) 2006. RFE/RL, Inc. All rights reserved.
The "RFE/RL Iran Report" is a weekly prepared by A. William Samii on
the basis of materials from RFE/RL broadcast services, RFE/RL
Newsline, and other news services. It is distributed every Monday.
Direct comments to A. William Samii at [email protected].
For information on reprints, see:
http://www.rferl.org/about/content/request.as p
Back issues are online at http://www.rferl.org/reports/iran-report/
_________________________________________ ____________________
RFE/RL Iran Report
Vol. 9, No. 29, 10 August 2006
A Review of Developments in Iran Prepared by the Regional Specialists
of RFE/RL's Newsline Team
******************************************** ****************
HEADLINES:
* PREPARING FOR A DEFINING ELECTION
* POLITICIAN SAYS FORMER PRESIDENT CAN NO LONGER WIN VOTES
* REFORMERS DISTRUST PROPOSED ELECTION OVERHAUL
* FORMER STUDENT PROTESTER DIES IN PRISON
* ANOTHER STUDENT SENT BACK TO JAIL
* TRADE CHAMBER OFFICIAL SKEPTICAL ON PRIVATIZATION
* IRAN DISMISSES UN SANCTIONS THREAT
* VENEZUELAN PRESIDENT SIGNS SEVERAL AGREEMENTS IN IRAN
********************************************* ***************
PREPARING FOR A DEFINING ELECTION. Buoyed by success in municipal,
legislative, and presidential elections in recent years,
fundamentalists associated with President Mahmud Ahmadinejad have now
set their sights on the Assembly of Experts, the popularly elected
body of 86 clerics that supervises and selects Iran's supreme
leader.
The fundamentalists want Ahmadinejad's spiritual guide,
Ayatollah Mohammad Taqi Mesbah-Yazdi, to head the assembly. Their
support has put him in competition with Ayatollah Ali-Akbar
Hashemi-Rafsanjani, the assembly's deputy speaker, who lost the
presidency to Ahmadinejad in a runoff vote in 2005.
Mesbah-Yazdi's supporters shouted down Hashemi-Rafsanjani when he
tried to give a speech in Qom on June 4.
A commentary in a conservative weekly connected to
Mesbah-Yazdi, "Parto-i Sokhan" on May 10, also took shots at
Hashemi-Rafsanjani when it interpreted regulations on eligibility for
the Assembly of Experts. The weekly said that critics of Ayatollah
Ruhollah Khomeini's stance on the 1979-81 hostage crisis or on
the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq War are ineligible. So, too, it said, are those
who caused delays in the acquisition of peaceful nuclear technology
or who advocated backing down in the diplomatic process.
Mesbah-Yazdi's opponents have retaliated. They have
criticized the president's spiritual guide for his lack of
activism against the monarchy before Iran's Islamic Revolution.
They have also hinted that he is a member of a banned
religio-political organization called the Hojjatieh Society.
Mesbah-Yazdi has denied Hojjatieh membership. A prominent
intellectual and scholar of Islam, Abdolkarim Soroush, backed that
denial in a January 30 interview published on roozonline.com,
asserting that Mesbah-Yazdi is a follower of Iranian philosopher
Ahmad Fardid, who espoused fascistic ideas and derided the value of
individual voting.
Success in the assembly has more than a symbolic value. The
assembly plays the key role in selecting the supreme leader. But the
expectation that the incoming assembly will choose the next supreme
leader seems far-fetched. Ayatollah Khamenei is just 66 years old,
and Shi'ite clerics can achieve impressive longevity.
There was a rapid turnover in leading Shi'ite clerics in
the early 1990s, but when Grand Ayatollah Abolqasem Khoi died in
1992, he was 97 years old; Grand Ayatollah Mohammad Golpayegani died
in 1993 at the age of 96, and Grand Ayatollah Ali Araki died in 1994
at more than 100 years old. Predictions of Khamenei's passing
seem premature, therefore, as he would only be 75 by the time the
incoming assembly's term of office ends.
Forming Factions
The rivalry between Mesbah-Yazdi and Hashemi-Rafsanjani for
leadership of the Assembly of Experts reflects the divisions and
rivalries among factions that have appeared in the last two years. In
the last few months, there has been talk among the reformists of
creating alliances ahead of the assembly balloting in an effort to
head off the fundamentalist juggernaut. The former speaker of
parliament and current head of the National Trust Party, Hojatoleslam
Mehdi Karrubi, -- was quoted in the June 20 "Kargozaran" daily as
saying he is "looking for a coalition more than anyone." But he added
that he believes in "a coalition of the efficient, strong, and active
forces of the true reformists -- not with opportunists."
To this end, there have been meetings of pro-reform political
parties (specifically, the Mujahedin of the Islamic Revolution
Organization, the National Trust Party) with pro-reform clerical
ones.
This latter group includes the Militant Clerics Association
(Majma-yi Ruhaniyun-i Mobarez), the Qom Theological Seminaries
(Hozeh-yi Elmieh-yi Qom), the Society of Teachers and Reformers of
the Qom Islamic Theological Center (Majma-yi Mudarissin va Moshaei-i
Hozeh-yi Elmieh-yi Qom), and the Society of the Islamic Students
Following the Line of the Imam (Majma-yi Talab-i Khat-i Imam).
There also has been talk of shared lists of candidates the
parties might back. There could even be a joint list backed by
Hashemi-Rafsanjani, Karrubi, former President Hojatoleslam Mohammad
Khatami, and Ayatollah Seyyed Hussein Musavi-Tabrizi of the Qom
seminaries, "Aftab-i Yazd" reported on July 23.
Setting A Date
The legislature on July 26 approved the general outlines of a
bill that would permit holding elections for the Assembly of Experts
and municipal councils concurrently this year, Fars News Agency
reported. Some 149 out of 219 legislators reportedly backed the bill.
The elections are scheduled for November 17.
But a government spokesman, Gholam-Hussein Elham, said
recently that Ahmadinejad's administration opposes holding
concurrent elections, Mehr News Agency reported on July 19. The
spokesman argued that campaigning for the entities differs, and that
holding the elections simultaneously requires additional planning and
preparation.
There are other potential logistical difficulties. A bill
that would increase the voting age only for municipal elections was
recently approved by the parliamentary National Security and Foreign
Policy Committee, according to a Mehr News Agency report quoting
legislator Kazem Jalali on July 12. The current voting age is 15, and
the bill in question would raise the minimum to 18.
The Guardians Council, which supervises Assembly of Experts
elections and vets candidates, has announced that it approves
concurrent elections.
The Interior Ministry, which runs elections, has already
prepared its timetable, culminating in voting on November 17, "Mardom
Salari" reported on July 20.
Under the Interior Ministry's scenario, election
executive boards will be set up (September 2-6), candidates
registered (September 7-13), and paperwork forwarded to the proper
authorities by mid-September (September 14-16 from local governorates
to the Interior Ministry, and from there to the Guardians Council).
The Guardians Council will then have until October 16 to
assess the candidates' qualifications, and two additional days to
inform disqualified candidates.
Appeals can be filed from October 19-21, and the Guardians
Council's clerical members will review the appeals from October
22-31 and advise the Interior Ministry accordingly. The names of
eligible candidates will be announced on November 1, campaigning will
take place from November 2-15, and the election will be on November
17.
The Guardians Council's work will continue until late
December, as it investigates possible complaints about conduct of the
elections and campaigning, "Etemad-i Melli" reported on June 7.
Controversial Vetting Process
Guardians Council Secretary Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati warned in
a late-July interview that the law determines the vetting of
candidates for the Assembly of Experts, and that this could upset
people who have individual preferences, "Farhang-i Ashti" reported on
July 24. The Guardians Council's vetting of candidates has always
been controversial. Disqualifications of parliamentary hopefuls --
particularly incumbents -- met with protests in 2004. It took the
supreme leader's intervention to get disqualified cabinet members
reinstated in the 2005 presidential election.
Balloting for the Assembly of Experts takes place every eight
years. In the past, potential candidates had to demonstrate
"ijtihad," the highest form of Islamic learning, which enables
Koranic interpretation. They also had to have clean political and
legal records, and believe in the Islamic republic's system. In
the run-up to the October 1998 Assembly of Experts election, an
announcement emerged that all potential candidates must demonstrate
the proper political inclination, as well.
In the last Assembly of Experts election in 1998, the
Guardians Council accepted fewer than half of the 396 applicants. It
rejected eight of the nine women who applied, and the ninth
subsequently withdrew her candidacy. The council allowed a number of
incumbents to run again despite their having failed the "ijtihad"
examination -- arguing that they could run because Ayatollah Khomeini
had approved their credentials for previous elections.
New Questions
It is therefore unsurprising that questions over the vetting
process have preceded the upcoming Assembly of Experts election. At
the assembly's September meeting, some members reportedly
submitted a motion requiring more stringent academic qualifications
-- advocating "absolute ijtihad" rather than simply "relative
ijtihad." The daily noted that the former qualification permits one
to interpret Islamic law, while the latter qualifies one to issue
religious decrees (fatwa). Sponsors of that motion reportedly also
wanted the job of vetting candidates withdrawn from the Guardians
Council and given to seminarians. They argued that because some
council members also compete for the assembly, the normal vetting
procedure represents a conflict of interest.
In mid-June, the Interior Ministry declared in a communique
that individuals whose "ijtihad" abilities were endorsed by Ayatollah
Khomeini need not be vetted by the Guardians Council, "Aftab-i Yazd"
reported on June 15. A member of the Assembly of Experts,
Hojatoleslam Majid Ansari, added that there are other people whose
"ijtihad" skills have already been tested and proven -- including
noted seminarians and appointees of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali
Khamenei, like the head of the Judiciary and clerics on the Guardians
Council.
There also have been suggestions that prospective
candidates' religious skills should be examined by the
seminaries, rather than the Guardians Council. This is of particular
concern in instances when members of the council are candidates
themselves.
All this factional jockeying and rivalry could be countered
by the actions of the 12-man Guardians Council, which arguably
counters any democratic credentials of Iranian elections. This
unelected body is the ultimate arbiter in the voting: It has
overturned results in the past. All the more notable, then, that its
six clerical members are appointed by the supreme leader and the six
lawyer members are selected by the Judiciary chief and approved by
the parliament. The council has a tendency to reject the candidacies
of individuals it fears might aggressively oppose the status quo. Its
paring down of available candidates could also have an adverse impact
on voter participation. (Bill Samii)
POLITICIAN SAYS FORMER PRESIDENT CAN NO LONGER WIN VOTES. A
politician associated with former President and Expediency Council
Chairman Ali Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani believes Rafsanjani is no
longer a popular option at elections, but that his pragmatic ideas
are widely accepted among politicians, Fars news agency reported on
August 3. Mohammad Atrianfar, a member of the Executives of
Construction, a centrist party considered close to Rafsanjani, said
he believes "the [Rafsanjani] period in the executive sphere has come
to an end, but his ideas are brilliant." He said that -- as shown in
the 2005 presidential elections -- Rafsanjani "personally lacks the
capacity to win the people's votes, but people continue to
support his ideas." Atrianfar said reformers have moved toward these
ideas -- considered moderately conservative and pragmatic -- and
"even Mr. [President] Ahmadinejad resorts to this thinking...when he
wishes to win people's votes." He said Ahmadinejad, who competed
for the presidency against Rafsanjani in 2005, is legally president,
but "not in terms of...votes." Who, he asked, paid for a nationwide
publicity campaign that allowed posters of Ahmadinejad, then
Tehran's mayor, to appear in far-off villages in Iran? "There is
still a great question mark over [the polls] and great doubts on its
outcome, but everyone is keeping quiet to maintain national
cohesion," Fars quoted him as saying. (Vahid Sepehri)
REFORMERS DISTRUST PROPOSED ELECTION OVERHAUL. The Iranian Interior
Ministry is proposing changes to election rules, and reformers are
concerned the proposals would further restrict the range of aspirants
allowed to run for public office, local media reports from July 28
and 31 and August 1 suggest.
On July 28, the head of the ministry's electoral affairs
department, Ali Asghar Karandish, said a comprehensive
electoral-system bill would, among other conditions, require
presidential hopefuls to obtain the written support of 50 legislators
from 20 provinces and 20 members of the Assembly for Experts in order
to become candidates. The bill also tasks the paramilitary Basij
militia with reviewing informal reports by members of the public
concerning would-be candidates' private lives or reputations.
Jurist Bahman Keshavarz said on July 31 that the bill could
pave the way for intrusive inquiries into would-be candidates'
private lives, which he said is illegal, "Aftab-i Yazd" reported the
next day.
Mohammad Salamati of the reformist Mujahedin of the Islamic
Revolution Organization said such "proposals will...add to the
atmosphere of concern," the same daily reported on August 1.
Former legislator Yadollah Islami said such bills ensure "the
gap between the people and state will never be filled," "Aftab-i
Yazd" reported.
But Interior Minister Mustafa Pur-Mohammadi predicted on
August 1 that the bill will "open" the environment for voters and
candidates, and urged specialists and politicians to study it before
reacting, the Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) reported. (Vahid
Sepehri)
FORMER STUDENT PROTESTER DIES IN PRISON. Akbar Mohammadi, a student
jailed for his involvement in 1999 Tehran demonstrations, died in
Tehran's Evin prison on July 30 after what was described by
authorities as a nine-day hunger strike, Radio Farda reported on July
31, citing the Tehran provincial prisons chief Akbar Suleimani and
the Student Committee of Human Rights Reporters.
The Student Committee of Human Rights Reporters stated that
other prisoners saw marks on Mohammadi's body suggesting that he
had been beaten, Radio Farda reported. "This regime brings
Palestinian children to be treated in Tehran hospitals, and gives
them money and homes, but is destroying our children under torture,"
Mohammadi's father told Radio Farda on July 31. Mohammadi had
been sentenced to death but his sentence was commuted to 15 years in
prison, according to Radio Farda.
One of his lawyers, Khalil Bahramian, said Mohammadi had been
on indefinite leave in the past year but "recently he was rearrested
by agents without any warning and transferred to prison."
Another lawyer, Nemat Ahmadi, said prison doctors confirmed
Mohammadi was ill and should receive treatment outside prison but
Mohammadi told him by phone that prison authorities were depriving
him of necessary medicines, including for asthma, Radio Farda
reported.
Mohammadi was swiftly buried near the town of Amol in
northern Iran despite a request by his parents for an autopsy, Radio
Farda reported on August 1. Radio Farda reported that Mohammadi's
parents flew to Tehran from Turkey late on July 31 to see his body
but were detained by security forces at Tehran airport, then taken at
about 4 a.m. with their son's body toward Amol for a burial. Some
5,000 security agents were in the vicinity for this process, Radio
Farda quoted Reza Mohammadi, Mohammadi's brother, as saying.
Agents also prevented some 700-800 well-wishers and relatives who had
come to the airport to see the parents from entering the airport
building on July 31.
Another brother, Manuchehr Mohammadi, is also in prison for
political activism, and the parents asked that he be allowed to see
his brother's body, although it was not clear whether he did,
Radio Farda reported.
In Tehran on August 1, a spokesman for the state
coroner's office said Mohammadi's body had been delivered to
his family after an autopsy, presumably by a prison doctor, the
Iranian Labor News Agency (ILNA) reported. "The results of the tests
and cause of death will be announced in one month," the spokesman
said.
Amnesty International said on August 1 that Mohammadi's
death "casts a pall" on Iran's judicial system, adding that
"thorough reform of the criminal justice system is urgently needed"
to prevent "more deaths in Iranian custody," Radio Farda reported.
Amnesty International urged Iranian authorities to end torture,
provide fair and open trials for dissidents, and end the practice of
"delaying or denying medical care." Mohammadi was denied some of his
own medicines, according to a lawyer quoted by Radio Farda, but
Amnesty cited reports that he might have been administered another
drug that could have contributed to his death. His detention, since
1999, was reportedly characterized by routine torture, including
beatings by Intelligence Ministry operatives as he hung upside down,
Amnesty reported, attributing the accusation to "information
available."
The U.S. State Department condemned the "severe repression"
of dissidents in Iran and said Mohammadi's death in prison in
late July was "not an isolated case" but symptomatic of Iran's
repressive treatment of dissidents, AFP reported on August 2, quoting
State Department spokesman Sean McCormack. McCormack said Iranian
government measures against opponents are part of a "deliberate
campaign" to "silence the student movement, in particular, and civil
society more broadly." McCormack expressed concern over the fate of
two other prominent detainees -- former legislator Ali-Akbar
Musavi-Khoeni and trade unionist Mansur Osanlu. (Vahid Sepehri)
ANOTHER STUDENT SENT BACK TO JAIL. A student sentenced to prison for
involvement in the 1999 riots, Ahmad Batebi, was arrested at his home
on July 29, apparently while on prison leave, the Iranian Students
News Agency (ISNA) and the "Aftab-i Yazd" daily reported on July 30
and 31, citing lawyer Khalil Bahramian and Batebi's father. The
latter told ISNA on July 30 that family members "have no news of
Batebi for now." Tehran deputy prosecutor Mahmud Salarkia said Batebi
was arrested for failing to return to prison six months after his
prison leave had ended, "Aftab-i Yazd" reported.
Separately, a group of legislators visited Evin prison on
July 30 to inspect prisoners' conditions but were not allowed
into Section 209, where political or security-related prisoners are
kept, ILNA reported on July 30, quoting legislator Akbar Alami. Alami
said the visitors previously coordinated their visit with officials,
including a deputy intelligence minister, but "most regrettably" the
wing was closed, and this, he said, has "contributed to doubts" about
what goes on there. Alami said that if the "law is respected" in this
as in other wings, "there was no reason not to let [legislators]
visit" it, ILNA reported.
Batebi's wife, Somayeh Binat, told Radio Farda on August
2 that "my opinion is they are trying to physically eliminate Ahmad
and other political prisoners." She added, "They are effectively,
through torture, implementing the execution sentence they had
initially given Ahmad." (Vahid Sepehri)
TRADE CHAMBER OFFICIAL SKEPTICAL ON PRIVATIZATION. Alinaqi Khamushi,
the head of Iran's Chamber of Commerce, Industry, and Mines, said
in Tehran on August 2 that there is a "startling difference" between
state officials' verbal commitment to privatization and their
actions, ILNA reported. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei
recently instructed the government to implement parts of Article 44
of the constitution, which is expected to initiate a large-scale
privatization drive. But business circles remain skeptical of the
government's willingness to withdraw from vast sectors of the
economy. Khamushi asked at a meeting why "the government should sign
11 agreements with Venezuela without anyone from the private sector
being present." Particularly, he said, when Khamenei's written
instructions on Article 44 urge the government not to involve itself
in "operational" areas, presumably specific business projects, ILNA
reported (see "RFE/RL Newsline," July 31, 2006). "Iran's economy
has turned a page and, after 80 years, the overall policies in
Article 44 were announced," and this requires "a strong private
sector that can gain the capacity to engage in large investments,"
Khamushi said. He complained that the industries minister in late
July prevented a scheduled meeting between visiting Venezuelan
President Hugo Chavez and trade-chamber representatives. (Vahid
Sepehri)
IRAN DISMISSES UN SANCTIONS THREAT. Rejecting a July 31 Security
Council resolution (1696) ordering Iran to suspend nuclear enrichment
activities, President Mahmud Ahmadinejad said in Bojnurd in
northeastern Iran on August 1 that Iran is peaceful and law-abiding
but has a right to obtain "peaceful nuclear technology" and will not
allow itself to be addressed in a threatening manner, IRNA and
Reuters reported. "Iran's enemies should know that the Iranian
people consider the use of nuclear science a right, and will not
forego this right," IRNA quoted him as saying. Western powers are
concerned that Iran's nuclear know-how could help it make bombs.
On August 1, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Hamid Reza
Assefi said the resolution has no "legal facet or basis," IRNA
reported. Assefi said the resolution serves the purposes "of certain
states" and seeks to "swiftly close the road to negotiations." It
will have "no constructive results," he said, and "can only worsen
the situation."
A member of the parliamentary National Security and Foreign
Policy Committee, Kazem Jalali, said the same day that the "Americans
seem to be trying their best" to move the dossier from "the path of
dialogue" toward "creating some kind of crisis," ISNA reported.
Assefi said on July 30 that Tehran will reject a package of
international incentives designed to curb Iran's nuclear program
if the UN Security Council approves a draft resolution obliging Iran
to stop uranium enrichment by August 31 or face possible sanctions,
agencies reported. "If a resolution is issued" against Iran, Western
proposals "will no longer be relevant," ISNA quoted Assefi as saying.
He said the package of incentives is part of a negotiating process,
but that EU states have "changed their method" and are moving away
from talks by turning to the Security Council. He said Iran thinks
"those who wish to issue a resolution" targeting Tehran are trying
"to make the region's conditions" more critical, adding that this
"is very clear, and needs no explanation." He did not specify what
Iran would do in response to a resolution, but "my message to Western
parties is very clear," ISNA reported. (Vahid Sepehri)
VENEZUELAN PRESIDENT SIGNS SEVERAL AGREEMENTS IN IRAN. Venezuelan
President Hugo Chavez arrived in Iran on July 29 for a visit that
included meetings with President Ahmadinejad and Supreme Leader
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The leaders used their meetings to affirm
mutual support and to denounce Israel. They also signed several
agreements.
On July 29, Khamenei told Chavez that the Americans are using
Israel to wage a war intended to create an "American Middle East,"
but "they had overlooked the Lebanese people in their calculations,"
ISNA reported the same day. He said Hizballah resistance has
obstructed plans to "create a Middle East made of puppet regimes,
with [Israel] as the main axis."
On July 30, Ahmadinejad presented Chavez with a medal for his
"outstanding efforts against imperialism" at a ceremony in Tehran
University, the setting for more condemnations of Israel, ISNA and
Fars News Agency reported the same day. Ahmadinejad said Israel was
created "as a permanent aggression and threat" to regional states and
a means to "loot" their wealth through fear, leading to arms
purchases from Western firms. Chavez denounced Israel's "fascist
actions" in Lebanon and Gaza. The United States, Chavez said, is
stuck in a "quagmire" in Iraq, Palestine, and Afghanistan, and "we
can together defeat America's imperialism and save the world.
America is defeated," ISNA reported.
Iran and Venezuela signed 11 agreements at the end of
President Chavez's visit to Tehran in sectors that include oil,
petrochemicals, and housing, IRNA reported on July 30. The two states
agreed to form a joint housing-construction firm, cooperate to
provide petrochemicals and oil-related training and education, and
launch joint ventures to make bicycles and pharmaceuticals.
The directors of state-affiliated Petropars and Petroleos de
Venezuela (PDVSA) signed a memorandum of understanding on oil
exploration and extraction, while Petroleum Ministers Kazem
Vaziri-Hamaneh and Rafael Ramirez Carreno signed an agreement on
cooperation between their ministries. Other documents signed were in
aviation, the environment, and manufacturing, IRNA reported. The
presidents and oil ministers of Iran and Venezuela, and Iran's
health and industry ministers were among senior officials attending
the ceremony. Chavez left Tehran for Hanoi late on July 30, IRNA
reported. (Vahid Sepehri)
**************************************** *****************
Copyright (c) 2006. RFE/RL, Inc. All rights reserved.
The "RFE/RL Iran Report" is a weekly prepared by A. William Samii on
the basis of materials from RFE/RL broadcast services, RFE/RL
Newsline, and other news services. It is distributed every Monday.
Direct comments to A. William Samii at [email protected].
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