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FROM PRESIDENTIAL TO MINISTERIAL GOVERNMENT?
Hakob Badalyan
Lragir.am
10 Aug 06
All the signs of anarchy are apparent in Armenia: lack of law,
indifference towards citizens, obsession with killings. And perhaps
the most vivid example of the lack of power is apparent: President
Robert Kocharyan almost does not react to the highly important events
in the country, which are already involving almost all the spheres,
including political, non-governmental, economy, finance. In broad
daylight criminals shoot at each other in the streets and scandalous
assassinations take place, the president keeps silent, the exchange
rate of the dollar drops lower and lower, emptying the pockets of the
population, the president remains silent, the political system is led
to a one-party system, Robert Kocharyan is again silent (the speaker
is Robert Kocharyan's, but is not Robert Kocharyan), the cause of
the mysterious crash of the Armenian plane, which is as mysterious,
is published, Robert Kocharyan is again silent, the Russians once
again block the only motorway of Armenia, the president of Armenia
is silent. In this situation the society has every reason to suppose
that Armenia does not have a president, that there is no presidential
government in Armenia any more.
If the president does not speak, it does not mean, of course, that he
does not have power. However, similarly we may suppose that he does not
speak because he does not have power. In this case, it is necessary to
find out who has real power in Armenia. The public and political chaos
and "maneuvers" inside the government prompt that power in Armenia
does not have a factual leader now, and all the processes underway
are intended to get hold of power. But if the country does not have
a leader now, nevertheless, there must be someone who directs these
processes. And eventually the one will become leader who directs the
processes leading to leadership.
Consequently, the question occurs who directs the ongoing processes,
namely the assassinations, the exchange rate, one-party system, the
blockade by the strategic friend, the chronology of the plane crash.
The public probably has the answer to this question, which they did
not learn from a prophetic dream or did not tell by a coffee cup,
it is rather due to a surge of information and propaganda. It is
consistently instilled in the public that power is gradually passing
to the minister of defense. In this case, the silence of the president
directly boosts the effect of propaganda.
Does it mean that Robert Kocharyan's silence approves the forming of
the governmental image of Serge Sargsyan? It might be too ingenuous
to think that Robert Kocharyan does not realize the situation. And
maybe he realizes and keeps silent. However, if he consciously keeps
silent and approves the actions of Serge Sargsyan, it does not mean
that the president agrees to these actions in reality. The aides
of the defense minister also understand this, and after the early
conference of the Republican Party they do not encourage the actions
of the "boss", they mourn that he made a mistake by relying on the
criminal, and there is only one thing left to do - capture the post
of president until January.
And it is natural that in this situation the best option for Robert
Kocharyan is to keep silent, let Serge come and take the post of
president until January, if he can. Maybe Robert Kocharyan thinks
so and is waiting. One should note that waiting is not a problem
for him, he knows how to wait. There is a circumstance, however,
that may turn into a trick on Robert Kocharyan. The point is that
the defense minister may not step up an offensive to capture the post
of president. After all, the president of the Chess Federation knows
what a king is if there is nobody around him, no pawns, no figures,
no queen. Consequently, the defense minister attacks these figures.
And it should be noted that he is rather successful. All the junior,
medium and senior officials yield to him one by one. And the reason
is not the skills of Serge Sargsyan but the silence of the president
rather. The officials need protection, consequently they are vulnerable
to all kinds of blackmail. The same Yervand Zakharyan, who has felt
for a number of times the reproach of Robert Kocharyan, feels that
the president may seriously reproach him one day, therefore he is
seeking for protection in the political party of the defense minister,
which used to be the prime minister's.
The rest act similarly. And in this case Serge Sargsyan will no more
need the post of president. He will control the situation and nothing
will disturb him to prepare for the year 2008. And perhaps this is
the reason why his "spokesmen" trumpet that either until January or
never. Most probably, the real purpose of this is to guarantee the
silence of Robert Kocharyan, which will guarantee the undisturbed work
of the defense minister. He needs rest until January, after January
his power will be enough to make any president silent, independent
from the president's will.
Hakob Badalyan
Lragir.am
10 Aug 06
All the signs of anarchy are apparent in Armenia: lack of law,
indifference towards citizens, obsession with killings. And perhaps
the most vivid example of the lack of power is apparent: President
Robert Kocharyan almost does not react to the highly important events
in the country, which are already involving almost all the spheres,
including political, non-governmental, economy, finance. In broad
daylight criminals shoot at each other in the streets and scandalous
assassinations take place, the president keeps silent, the exchange
rate of the dollar drops lower and lower, emptying the pockets of the
population, the president remains silent, the political system is led
to a one-party system, Robert Kocharyan is again silent (the speaker
is Robert Kocharyan's, but is not Robert Kocharyan), the cause of
the mysterious crash of the Armenian plane, which is as mysterious,
is published, Robert Kocharyan is again silent, the Russians once
again block the only motorway of Armenia, the president of Armenia
is silent. In this situation the society has every reason to suppose
that Armenia does not have a president, that there is no presidential
government in Armenia any more.
If the president does not speak, it does not mean, of course, that he
does not have power. However, similarly we may suppose that he does not
speak because he does not have power. In this case, it is necessary to
find out who has real power in Armenia. The public and political chaos
and "maneuvers" inside the government prompt that power in Armenia
does not have a factual leader now, and all the processes underway
are intended to get hold of power. But if the country does not have
a leader now, nevertheless, there must be someone who directs these
processes. And eventually the one will become leader who directs the
processes leading to leadership.
Consequently, the question occurs who directs the ongoing processes,
namely the assassinations, the exchange rate, one-party system, the
blockade by the strategic friend, the chronology of the plane crash.
The public probably has the answer to this question, which they did
not learn from a prophetic dream or did not tell by a coffee cup,
it is rather due to a surge of information and propaganda. It is
consistently instilled in the public that power is gradually passing
to the minister of defense. In this case, the silence of the president
directly boosts the effect of propaganda.
Does it mean that Robert Kocharyan's silence approves the forming of
the governmental image of Serge Sargsyan? It might be too ingenuous
to think that Robert Kocharyan does not realize the situation. And
maybe he realizes and keeps silent. However, if he consciously keeps
silent and approves the actions of Serge Sargsyan, it does not mean
that the president agrees to these actions in reality. The aides
of the defense minister also understand this, and after the early
conference of the Republican Party they do not encourage the actions
of the "boss", they mourn that he made a mistake by relying on the
criminal, and there is only one thing left to do - capture the post
of president until January.
And it is natural that in this situation the best option for Robert
Kocharyan is to keep silent, let Serge come and take the post of
president until January, if he can. Maybe Robert Kocharyan thinks
so and is waiting. One should note that waiting is not a problem
for him, he knows how to wait. There is a circumstance, however,
that may turn into a trick on Robert Kocharyan. The point is that
the defense minister may not step up an offensive to capture the post
of president. After all, the president of the Chess Federation knows
what a king is if there is nobody around him, no pawns, no figures,
no queen. Consequently, the defense minister attacks these figures.
And it should be noted that he is rather successful. All the junior,
medium and senior officials yield to him one by one. And the reason
is not the skills of Serge Sargsyan but the silence of the president
rather. The officials need protection, consequently they are vulnerable
to all kinds of blackmail. The same Yervand Zakharyan, who has felt
for a number of times the reproach of Robert Kocharyan, feels that
the president may seriously reproach him one day, therefore he is
seeking for protection in the political party of the defense minister,
which used to be the prime minister's.
The rest act similarly. And in this case Serge Sargsyan will no more
need the post of president. He will control the situation and nothing
will disturb him to prepare for the year 2008. And perhaps this is
the reason why his "spokesmen" trumpet that either until January or
never. Most probably, the real purpose of this is to guarantee the
silence of Robert Kocharyan, which will guarantee the undisturbed work
of the defense minister. He needs rest until January, after January
his power will be enough to make any president silent, independent
from the president's will.