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FRENCH MIDEAST EXPERT FEELS UN SANCTIONS WILL STRENGTHEN IRAN
Liberation website, Paris
23 Aug 06
Olivier Roy, French expert on Iran and director of the National
Scientific Research Counci, has said that possible UN sanctions would
only strengthen the Iranian regime. The following is an excerpt from
an interview with Roy, by Marc Semo, headlined 'Iran is asserting
itself as a major regional power", published by French newspaper
Liberation website on 23 August:
[Passage omitted]
[Semo] Why does Iran refuse to suspend its nuclear programme?
[Roy] In this area Iranian policy is a constant: Teheran wants to
be able to continue enriching uranium, officially for a civilian
programme but at the same time without forgoing the military option.
That is also why Iran is working to conquer the strongest possible
position on the regional chessboard, which explains its role in the
latest crisis in Lebanon.
Curiously, the Westerners saw nothing coming. Since the start they
have managed the Iranian nuclear question in a narrowly bilateral
manner by proposing a package to Tehran, a graduated programme of
incentives and pressures, to encourage it to yield.
On the other hand the Iranian strategy, especially since the arrival in
power of Ahmadinezhad, has been to regionalize this test of strength to
force the Westerners to make a drastic choice: Either have a general
crisis or let Iran continue the enrichment.
The Iranians have the feeling this strategy has paid off. In Lebanon
they have emerged strengthened from a conflict in which they did not
directly participate. Granted, they finance, arm and train Hezbollah,
but they were able to stay in the background.
Similarly, without ever appearing at the front of the stage they are
benefiting from the other conflicts in the region, in both Afghanistan
and Iraq. Furthermore, they are more discreet there, knowing that
time is in their favour.
[Semo] Is the Iranian government united on the nuclear issue?
[Roy] There are inevitably debates and disagreements, but I do
not believe the disagreements are such that they can be exploited
by a policy of pressure. The pragmatic Rafsanjani (editor's note:
the former president, considered a reformist) wanted to gain time by
presenting Iran as an essential element to regional stability. Mahmud
Ahmadinezhad, by contrast, thinks a forceful approach is the best
solution. There were reportedly tensions within the Tehran government
when he denounced the "illegitimacy" of Israel for the first time.
Since then there have been other provocations, the latest of which
is the exhibit of cartoons about the Holocaust, but each time he has
been able to claim he is the winner.
That being said, Ahmadinezhad must not be seen as a madman with
his finger on the nuclear button. He is consistent with the line of
the Islamic Revolution, not in the "Thermidorian" trend, of course,
but in that of a revolution after the revolution. Furthermore, his
strategic choices are not in complete contradiction with those of
his predecessors.
Iran feels its nuclear capacity will enable it to assert itself
as the major regional power. For Ahmadinezhad, taking the lead of
the rejection front against Israel has the taste of revenge. This
pan-Islamic talk plays on the chord of anti-imperialism, Arab
nationalism and anti-Zionism. This was also seen during the Lebanese
crisis. It enables Tehran to delegitimize a bit more the Arab regimes
in place. The leader of Hezbollah, Hasan Nasrallah, is today seen in
the Arab street as the new Nasser.
[Semo] What will be the effect of possible international sanctions?
[Roy] They always strengthen the authoritarian regimes in place. In
this case, there is also no consensus in the UN Security Council
and these possible sanctions will not be supported by true coercive
measures. The regional actors and the neighbouring countries, although
almost all allies of the West (Dubai, Afghanistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan,
the Kurds, and so forth), will not hesitate to circumvent them to do
lucrative deals. Major economic powers like Japan, and also China,
have already announced their refusal of any embargo on Iranian energy
exports. Tehran will therefore be able to continue selling its oil,
and at a higher price thanks precisely to the sanctions. At the same
time, the Iranian leaders will strengthen their power by managing
the distribution of the concealed income from the smuggling.
[Semo] So what can the international community do?
[Roy] If they want to be consistent, the Westerners must find a
global strategy for the Middle East. Up to now they have managed
these various regional conflicts separately, as if they were
compartmentalized. Or in the name of ideological visions of fighting
terrorism or Islamo-fascism.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
Liberation website, Paris
23 Aug 06
Olivier Roy, French expert on Iran and director of the National
Scientific Research Counci, has said that possible UN sanctions would
only strengthen the Iranian regime. The following is an excerpt from
an interview with Roy, by Marc Semo, headlined 'Iran is asserting
itself as a major regional power", published by French newspaper
Liberation website on 23 August:
[Passage omitted]
[Semo] Why does Iran refuse to suspend its nuclear programme?
[Roy] In this area Iranian policy is a constant: Teheran wants to
be able to continue enriching uranium, officially for a civilian
programme but at the same time without forgoing the military option.
That is also why Iran is working to conquer the strongest possible
position on the regional chessboard, which explains its role in the
latest crisis in Lebanon.
Curiously, the Westerners saw nothing coming. Since the start they
have managed the Iranian nuclear question in a narrowly bilateral
manner by proposing a package to Tehran, a graduated programme of
incentives and pressures, to encourage it to yield.
On the other hand the Iranian strategy, especially since the arrival in
power of Ahmadinezhad, has been to regionalize this test of strength to
force the Westerners to make a drastic choice: Either have a general
crisis or let Iran continue the enrichment.
The Iranians have the feeling this strategy has paid off. In Lebanon
they have emerged strengthened from a conflict in which they did not
directly participate. Granted, they finance, arm and train Hezbollah,
but they were able to stay in the background.
Similarly, without ever appearing at the front of the stage they are
benefiting from the other conflicts in the region, in both Afghanistan
and Iraq. Furthermore, they are more discreet there, knowing that
time is in their favour.
[Semo] Is the Iranian government united on the nuclear issue?
[Roy] There are inevitably debates and disagreements, but I do
not believe the disagreements are such that they can be exploited
by a policy of pressure. The pragmatic Rafsanjani (editor's note:
the former president, considered a reformist) wanted to gain time by
presenting Iran as an essential element to regional stability. Mahmud
Ahmadinezhad, by contrast, thinks a forceful approach is the best
solution. There were reportedly tensions within the Tehran government
when he denounced the "illegitimacy" of Israel for the first time.
Since then there have been other provocations, the latest of which
is the exhibit of cartoons about the Holocaust, but each time he has
been able to claim he is the winner.
That being said, Ahmadinezhad must not be seen as a madman with
his finger on the nuclear button. He is consistent with the line of
the Islamic Revolution, not in the "Thermidorian" trend, of course,
but in that of a revolution after the revolution. Furthermore, his
strategic choices are not in complete contradiction with those of
his predecessors.
Iran feels its nuclear capacity will enable it to assert itself
as the major regional power. For Ahmadinezhad, taking the lead of
the rejection front against Israel has the taste of revenge. This
pan-Islamic talk plays on the chord of anti-imperialism, Arab
nationalism and anti-Zionism. This was also seen during the Lebanese
crisis. It enables Tehran to delegitimize a bit more the Arab regimes
in place. The leader of Hezbollah, Hasan Nasrallah, is today seen in
the Arab street as the new Nasser.
[Semo] What will be the effect of possible international sanctions?
[Roy] They always strengthen the authoritarian regimes in place. In
this case, there is also no consensus in the UN Security Council
and these possible sanctions will not be supported by true coercive
measures. The regional actors and the neighbouring countries, although
almost all allies of the West (Dubai, Afghanistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan,
the Kurds, and so forth), will not hesitate to circumvent them to do
lucrative deals. Major economic powers like Japan, and also China,
have already announced their refusal of any embargo on Iranian energy
exports. Tehran will therefore be able to continue selling its oil,
and at a higher price thanks precisely to the sanctions. At the same
time, the Iranian leaders will strengthen their power by managing
the distribution of the concealed income from the smuggling.
[Semo] So what can the international community do?
[Roy] If they want to be consistent, the Westerners must find a
global strategy for the Middle East. Up to now they have managed
these various regional conflicts separately, as if they were
compartmentalized. Or in the name of ideological visions of fighting
terrorism or Islamo-fascism.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress