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Policy Of Compromises Will Never Bring About Settlement Of Karabakh

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  • Policy Of Compromises Will Never Bring About Settlement Of Karabakh

    POLICY OF COMPROMISES WILL NEVER BRING ABOUT SETTLEMENT OF KARABAKH CONFLICT: RAUF RAJABOV'S INTERVIEW TO REGNUM

    Regnum, Russia
    Aug. 21, 2006

    Rauf Rajabov is expert in conflictology, Head of World, Democracy
    and Culture Research Analytical Center (Azerbaijan)

    REGNUM: Mr. Rajabov, to what extent Azerbaijani and Armenian political
    establishment should be involved in search and coordination of
    compromises in the Nagorno Karabakh conflict?

    Political elites of the two countries should occupy themselves
    with settlement of the Karabakh conflict instead of searching for
    concessions or compromises. One should agree, no matter how difficult
    it is, that everyone has a right to choose. Moreover, the two Karabakh
    communities do. So, let us give them this right, and we shall help
    them in applying this right. The policy of compromises will never
    bring about solving of the Nagorno Karabakh conflict. It is solving
    but not settlement should be the basic and strategic direction of
    the negotiation process.

    The policy of compromises envisages, first, positional bargaining,
    which has been prevailing in the negotiation process, second,
    concessions, which means giving up or giving in one's position. And
    this means a loss already. Third, it is lack of stable system of
    regional security.

    REGNUM: And what does in this case the policy of solving the Nagorno
    Karabakh conflict presume?

    Firstly, it is direct cooperation of the parties in the conflict.

    Secondly, these are mutually beneficial and mutually acceptable
    conditions of a political agreement. Third, the abovementioned
    conditions will allow the conflicting parties to establish together
    a long-term national and regional security system. It is high time
    for the two sides to change the strategy of the negotiation process
    completely.

    An attempt to settle the Karabakh conflict on the basis of compromises
    in reality turns into a positional bargaining of the conflicting
    parties. For instance, one side (Armenia) proposes territory in
    exchange for status, the other one (Azerbaijan) communications in
    exchange for territories. Meanwhile, the situation of bargaining
    and the situation of searching for a mutually admissible compromise
    are two different things. In the first case, each party is trying
    to outbid the opponent without changing anything in its position; in
    the second case, a rapprochement is envisaged and search for a common
    denominator in order to get things moving. Today, an imitation game
    and open bargaining are prevailing in the negotiation process. And
    there is no readiness for the true cooperation. The sides have too
    different positions in understanding what can and should be the subject
    of compromise. Armenia after achieving a temporary military success in
    the Karabakh war has been trying to establish an asymmetrical formula
    of the compromise, which will be deriving from the relations between
    the victorious and the losing parties. Henceforth, Yerevan expects
    from Azerbaijan not just compromises, but recognizing the outcome
    of the war. We are witness to willingness to put the negotiation
    process in direct dependence on the fact of military success instead
    of searching for real compromises. Azerbaijan has the same position,
    the difference is in this case demonstration of future successes,
    particularly military ones, is taking place. In other words, in one
    case search for real compromises is hindered by nostalgia for past
    successes, in the other one it is confidence in future successes.

    REGNUM: Do you think that major aims of the conflict settlement
    should be establishment of security system and development of regional
    cooperation?

    As Azerbaijan's security after the conflict is over does not stir
    questions, let us focus on Armenia. Its main aim is not only security
    of the Armenian Diaspora in Karabakh, as it could seem at first
    sight. Armenia is surrounded by the countries with which it has
    significant problems. The only exception is, probably, Iran, but
    if the situation around it changes completely, Russia will be the
    only guarantor. They understand that withdrawing from Armenia will
    mean losing North Caucasus in future. The policy of isolating the
    partner in negotiations cannot be treated as a pragmatic one for a
    long-term perspective. It can be true for a short-term perspective,
    yes, but this is an element of positional bargaining. Possible
    Armenia's participation in regional projects will be effective only
    in terms of establishing long-term relations that take into account
    interests of both sides. Such step would demonstrate that a new stage
    is starting in the negotiation process, it is cooperation aimed at
    settling the conflict. On the other side, it is harmful and dangerous
    to manipulate by the occupied Azerbaijani territories and present
    claims for Nakhichevan.

    The subject of carrying out a referendum should not be left
    untouched. Miracles happen. As early as in 1923, three years after
    the first Karabakh war, the Karabakh population voted for the right
    to remain within Azerbaijan. However, the matter is that miracles
    are result of human effort and deeds.

    If in conditions of the current stand-off the referendum is held in
    the whole territory of Azerbaijan, it is easy to predict a negative
    outcome for Yerevan. If Karabakh Armenians and Azerbaijanis is held
    within Nagorno Karabakh, the result will be negative for Baku.

    REGNUM: And what if by the time of the referendum Azerbaijan settles
    its relations with Armenia?

    It is very important. But the following thing is more important.

    Irrespective of their nationality, Karabakh people should be sure
    that Azerbaijan needs them not for satisfying its ambitions, but
    for establishing civil society in the country and the region on the
    whole. Unfortunately, the process of forming political, economic and
    scientific elites of the two Nagorno Karabakh communities because
    of known reasons has been passing isolated from each other. Though,
    the Armenian and Azerbaijani communities of Nagorno Karabakh should
    build bridges of trust as soon as today. And they should start from
    people's diplomacy, which, as history has repeatedly shown, is a
    pledge of future serious successes.
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