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WILL ARMENIA MOVE TOWARDS THE WEST?
The Messenger, Georgia
Aug. 21, 2006
The Russian media has been speculating on a possible Armenian drift
away from Moscow. Long the Kremlin's staunchest ally in the Caucasus,
a rift between the two countries would rewrite the books on post-Soviet
geopolitics in the region. "It seems that Moscow has already received
from Armenia what it wanted, and has lost all interest in it," the
Russian newspaper Izvestia writes in an article entitled "Strategic
apathy with predictable consequences."
The article accuses the current Armenian administration of nepotism
and corruption, claiming that Armenia has become a country where
kinships mean all, and people from Yerevan and Karabakh occupy the most
influential positions. President Kocharian, the article speculates,
is trying to break off from Russia in a bid to maintain his power.
As evidence, author points to Kocharian's conspicuous absence from
the last CIS summit; he was down with a cold, the administration
said. Word is that he had been spotted going for a dip in the chilly
waters of Sevani Lake at the time-doubtfully a curative measure. Nor
did US State Department official Matt Bryza's Yerevan stopover, a visit
not exactly trumpeted by the Kocharian administration, serve to shore
up Moscow's trust in its traditional ally. According to the paper,
Bryza worked out a deal with Yerevan authorities on the placement of
two American radio-locating stations.
If Russia does indeed see its influence wane with Kocharian, it may be
out of the game in Yerevan for a while. The Kremlin has not previously
seen fit to cultivate relations with any opposition parties.
"Someone has asserted earlier that there is no need to work with
the opposition in CIS countries; we should only focus on ruling
administration. Whether it is true or not, such an approach led to
the failure of relations with Georgia and later with Ukraine. And now
it is Armenia's turn. Americans do not refrain from working with the
opposition, and as we can see from Georgia's example they have won,"
the paper writes.
Talk like this could be making it to print with a mind to influencing
the election campaigning already underway in Armenia. Armenia
has parliamentary elections coming up in 2007, and presidential
elections in 2008. Kocharian is now finishing out his second term
and his constitutionally prohibited from running again, leaving the
opposition favored by some analysts to pull out a victory.
The Armenian president apparently "tried to correct his blunder"
of sitting out the CIS summit by meeting Putin in Sochi. Here,
Kocharian met with near-taunts from the Russian president, who
expressed his pleasure that 'Azerbaijan days' are celebrated in
Russia. Putin characterized this statement as a positive contribution
to Armenian-Azerbaijan conflict settlement, but Kocharian did not
exactly see things the same way.
Georgian analysts and politicians are of varied opinions. MP Van
Bayburt thinks there will be no substantial change in Russian-Armenian
relations in the next two or three years. The Yerevan administration,
he says, has long practice in walking a delicate tightrope between
Russia and the West.
Political analyst Ramaz Sakvarelidze, however, highlights Russia's
purchase, en masse, of the industrial infrastructure in Armenia. This
rubs the wrong way for many citizens there, who look at the Russian
investment as sheer aggression. In response to that antagonism,
perceived or real, Armenian foreign policy crafters are increasingly
on the look-out for Western hands to shake. Sakvarelidze thinks that
Moscow has difficulty in conducting itself as an equal with countries
that, realistically, depend on Russia, painting the picture of a
suzerain lording over a vassal. The Kremlin likes to see 'partners'
on their knees, he says, to leave the other party no option but a
vulnerable embrace of Russia and its interests. "With this kind
of politics, eventually everybody will lose-including Russia,"
Sakvarelidze warns.
Strong Armenian diasporas, who exert disproportionate control on
politics in Yerevan, are also pushing the administration into a
Western orientation. The first president of independent Armenia, Levon
Ter-Petrossian, clearly gravitated towards the West. Many think that
his eventual resignation was brought about by the pro-Russian lobby in
the country. Perhaps rumblings in the Russian media are a sign that the
Kremlin is once again dusting off its playbook of preventive measures.
The Messenger, Georgia
Aug. 21, 2006
The Russian media has been speculating on a possible Armenian drift
away from Moscow. Long the Kremlin's staunchest ally in the Caucasus,
a rift between the two countries would rewrite the books on post-Soviet
geopolitics in the region. "It seems that Moscow has already received
from Armenia what it wanted, and has lost all interest in it," the
Russian newspaper Izvestia writes in an article entitled "Strategic
apathy with predictable consequences."
The article accuses the current Armenian administration of nepotism
and corruption, claiming that Armenia has become a country where
kinships mean all, and people from Yerevan and Karabakh occupy the most
influential positions. President Kocharian, the article speculates,
is trying to break off from Russia in a bid to maintain his power.
As evidence, author points to Kocharian's conspicuous absence from
the last CIS summit; he was down with a cold, the administration
said. Word is that he had been spotted going for a dip in the chilly
waters of Sevani Lake at the time-doubtfully a curative measure. Nor
did US State Department official Matt Bryza's Yerevan stopover, a visit
not exactly trumpeted by the Kocharian administration, serve to shore
up Moscow's trust in its traditional ally. According to the paper,
Bryza worked out a deal with Yerevan authorities on the placement of
two American radio-locating stations.
If Russia does indeed see its influence wane with Kocharian, it may be
out of the game in Yerevan for a while. The Kremlin has not previously
seen fit to cultivate relations with any opposition parties.
"Someone has asserted earlier that there is no need to work with
the opposition in CIS countries; we should only focus on ruling
administration. Whether it is true or not, such an approach led to
the failure of relations with Georgia and later with Ukraine. And now
it is Armenia's turn. Americans do not refrain from working with the
opposition, and as we can see from Georgia's example they have won,"
the paper writes.
Talk like this could be making it to print with a mind to influencing
the election campaigning already underway in Armenia. Armenia
has parliamentary elections coming up in 2007, and presidential
elections in 2008. Kocharian is now finishing out his second term
and his constitutionally prohibited from running again, leaving the
opposition favored by some analysts to pull out a victory.
The Armenian president apparently "tried to correct his blunder"
of sitting out the CIS summit by meeting Putin in Sochi. Here,
Kocharian met with near-taunts from the Russian president, who
expressed his pleasure that 'Azerbaijan days' are celebrated in
Russia. Putin characterized this statement as a positive contribution
to Armenian-Azerbaijan conflict settlement, but Kocharian did not
exactly see things the same way.
Georgian analysts and politicians are of varied opinions. MP Van
Bayburt thinks there will be no substantial change in Russian-Armenian
relations in the next two or three years. The Yerevan administration,
he says, has long practice in walking a delicate tightrope between
Russia and the West.
Political analyst Ramaz Sakvarelidze, however, highlights Russia's
purchase, en masse, of the industrial infrastructure in Armenia. This
rubs the wrong way for many citizens there, who look at the Russian
investment as sheer aggression. In response to that antagonism,
perceived or real, Armenian foreign policy crafters are increasingly
on the look-out for Western hands to shake. Sakvarelidze thinks that
Moscow has difficulty in conducting itself as an equal with countries
that, realistically, depend on Russia, painting the picture of a
suzerain lording over a vassal. The Kremlin likes to see 'partners'
on their knees, he says, to leave the other party no option but a
vulnerable embrace of Russia and its interests. "With this kind
of politics, eventually everybody will lose-including Russia,"
Sakvarelidze warns.
Strong Armenian diasporas, who exert disproportionate control on
politics in Yerevan, are also pushing the administration into a
Western orientation. The first president of independent Armenia, Levon
Ter-Petrossian, clearly gravitated towards the West. Many think that
his eventual resignation was brought about by the pro-Russian lobby in
the country. Perhaps rumblings in the Russian media are a sign that the
Kremlin is once again dusting off its playbook of preventive measures.