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ARMENIAN, AZERI PRESIDENTS REKINDLE HOPES FOR KARABAKH PEACE
By Emil Danielyan
Eurasia Daily Monitor, DC
Nov 30 2006
President Robert Kocharian The presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan
have produced a new glimmer of hope for a resolution of the Karabakh
conflict following their third face-to-face meeting in less than
a year. Robert Kocharian and Ilham Aliyev have indicated that they
made further progress towards a mutually acceptable settlement during
their talks held on the sidelines of a Commonwealth of Independent
States summit in Minsk on November 28. It is not yet clear, however,
whether they are seeking to sign any peace accords before next spring's
Armenian parliamentary elections, or the presidential elections due
in both South Caucasus states in 2008.
The latest Armenian-Azerbaijani summit was widely seen as the last
opportunity to achieve a breakthrough in the protracted search
for Karabakh peace before those polls. The fact that it started in
the presence of the foreign ministers of Russia and Belgium, which
currently holds the OSCE's rotating presidency, only underlined its
importance for the international community. Aliyev and Kocharian
reportedly continued the discussion in a tete-a-tete format for
about two hours before flying home without making any statements
in the Belarusian capital. The U.S., French and Russian diplomats
co-chairing the OSCE's Minsk Group on Karabakh, who arranged the
encounter, likewise declined comment.
Aliyev's subsequent assessment of the talks was particularly
positive. "I can say that we are already approaching the final phase
of negotiations," he told state television in Baku, in remarks cited
by Azerbaijani newspapers on November 30. Significantly, Aliyev stated
that he and his Armenian counterpart reached agreement on a number of
unspecified sticking points that had prevented a breakthrough in their
two previous meetings held in February and June. He did not elaborate.
Kocharian also expressed, through his Foreign Minister Vartan
Oskanian, his satisfaction with the results of the negotiations. "I
cannot say concretely whether progress was made or not, but both
presidents assessed the meeting as positive in terms of atmosphere
and constructive approaches," Oskanian told journalists in Yerevan.
"I think that the Armenian and Azerbaijani presidents will analyze
everything in detail within a few days and give precise instructions
to the foreign ministers about their future work," he added.
The Aliyev-Kocharian talks were preceded (and made possible) by a
flurry of diplomatic activity by the Minsk Group co-chairs, Oskanian,
and his Azerbaijani opposite number Elmar Mammadyarov. The two foreign
ministers met for three times in less than a month, most recently in
Brussels on November 14. The meetings focused on what the mediators
have described as "complementary elements" to their existing Karabakh
peace plan that were put forward following the failure of the previous
Armenian-Azerbaijani summits. Neither the co-chairs nor the conflicting
parties have disclosed those elements so far.
The parties, meanwhile, continue to make differing interpretations
of a key point of the Minsk Group plan: a referendum in Karabakh that
would determine the disputed region's future status. Official Yerevan
insists that the territory's predominantly ethnic Armenian population
would be able to decide whether it wants to be independent, become
a part of Armenia or return under Azerbaijani rule. The Karabakh
Armenians would almost certainly reject the latter option.
Azerbaijani leaders, for their part, say that the proposed referendum
should only determine the extent of Karabakh's future autonomy within
Azerbaijan. In his latest televised remarks, Aliyev reiterated that
Baku would only agree to give Karabakh a "maximum degree of self-rule,"
something that is a non-starter for the Armenian side.
Even assuming that the two sides have managed to find common ground
on their main bone of contention, they will not necessarily rush to
announce any agreements in the coming months. In particular, Armenia's
government and its political allies have already started preparations
for the 2007 parliamentary elections and will hardly be willing to
let the domestic opposition exploit unpopular Armenian concessions
to Azerbaijan. Those include liberation of at least six of the seven
Azerbaijani districts surrounding Karabakh that were fully or partly
occupied by Armenian forces during their 1991-94 war.
(The scale and timetable of the Armenian troop withdrawal has been
another contentious issue.) Oskanian implied that the signing of
any Armenian-Azerbaijani agreements before the upcoming polls is
not in the offing. Still, he insisted that the election period "will
not interrupt" the peace process, disagreeing with the widely held
belief that failure to cut a framework peace deal now would keep the
conflict unresolved at least until 2009.
The Minsk Group's U.S. co-chair, Deputy Assistant Secretary of
State Matthew Bryza, likewise claimed in July that the Armenian and
Azerbaijani elections are not an insurmountable obstacle to Karabakh
peace. "If they come up with an agreement that's mutually acceptable,
that should be a plus in an election," he said, referring to Aliyev
and Kocharian. "That's a huge achievement that should actually help
political leaders and their parties to win votes."
Some analysts interpreted the remarks as a sign that the West, and
the United States in particular, will let the ruling regimes in Baku
and Yerevan get away with fresh vote rigging and cling to power if
they embrace the proposed peace formula. Peter Semneby, the European
Union's special representative to the South Caucasus who accused the
two governments of "playing for time," seriously questioned their
commitment to mutual compromise on October 5. According to Semneby,
Azerbaijan is trying to use its soaring oil revenues to change the
balance of forces in its favor, while Armenia hopes that the Karabakh
status quo will "cement itself" in the coming years.
(Zerkalo, November 30; Aravot, November 30; Armenian Public Television,
November 29; RFE/RL Armenia Report, October 5; Interview with Matthew
Bryza, July 29)
By Emil Danielyan
Eurasia Daily Monitor, DC
Nov 30 2006
President Robert Kocharian The presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan
have produced a new glimmer of hope for a resolution of the Karabakh
conflict following their third face-to-face meeting in less than
a year. Robert Kocharian and Ilham Aliyev have indicated that they
made further progress towards a mutually acceptable settlement during
their talks held on the sidelines of a Commonwealth of Independent
States summit in Minsk on November 28. It is not yet clear, however,
whether they are seeking to sign any peace accords before next spring's
Armenian parliamentary elections, or the presidential elections due
in both South Caucasus states in 2008.
The latest Armenian-Azerbaijani summit was widely seen as the last
opportunity to achieve a breakthrough in the protracted search
for Karabakh peace before those polls. The fact that it started in
the presence of the foreign ministers of Russia and Belgium, which
currently holds the OSCE's rotating presidency, only underlined its
importance for the international community. Aliyev and Kocharian
reportedly continued the discussion in a tete-a-tete format for
about two hours before flying home without making any statements
in the Belarusian capital. The U.S., French and Russian diplomats
co-chairing the OSCE's Minsk Group on Karabakh, who arranged the
encounter, likewise declined comment.
Aliyev's subsequent assessment of the talks was particularly
positive. "I can say that we are already approaching the final phase
of negotiations," he told state television in Baku, in remarks cited
by Azerbaijani newspapers on November 30. Significantly, Aliyev stated
that he and his Armenian counterpart reached agreement on a number of
unspecified sticking points that had prevented a breakthrough in their
two previous meetings held in February and June. He did not elaborate.
Kocharian also expressed, through his Foreign Minister Vartan
Oskanian, his satisfaction with the results of the negotiations. "I
cannot say concretely whether progress was made or not, but both
presidents assessed the meeting as positive in terms of atmosphere
and constructive approaches," Oskanian told journalists in Yerevan.
"I think that the Armenian and Azerbaijani presidents will analyze
everything in detail within a few days and give precise instructions
to the foreign ministers about their future work," he added.
The Aliyev-Kocharian talks were preceded (and made possible) by a
flurry of diplomatic activity by the Minsk Group co-chairs, Oskanian,
and his Azerbaijani opposite number Elmar Mammadyarov. The two foreign
ministers met for three times in less than a month, most recently in
Brussels on November 14. The meetings focused on what the mediators
have described as "complementary elements" to their existing Karabakh
peace plan that were put forward following the failure of the previous
Armenian-Azerbaijani summits. Neither the co-chairs nor the conflicting
parties have disclosed those elements so far.
The parties, meanwhile, continue to make differing interpretations
of a key point of the Minsk Group plan: a referendum in Karabakh that
would determine the disputed region's future status. Official Yerevan
insists that the territory's predominantly ethnic Armenian population
would be able to decide whether it wants to be independent, become
a part of Armenia or return under Azerbaijani rule. The Karabakh
Armenians would almost certainly reject the latter option.
Azerbaijani leaders, for their part, say that the proposed referendum
should only determine the extent of Karabakh's future autonomy within
Azerbaijan. In his latest televised remarks, Aliyev reiterated that
Baku would only agree to give Karabakh a "maximum degree of self-rule,"
something that is a non-starter for the Armenian side.
Even assuming that the two sides have managed to find common ground
on their main bone of contention, they will not necessarily rush to
announce any agreements in the coming months. In particular, Armenia's
government and its political allies have already started preparations
for the 2007 parliamentary elections and will hardly be willing to
let the domestic opposition exploit unpopular Armenian concessions
to Azerbaijan. Those include liberation of at least six of the seven
Azerbaijani districts surrounding Karabakh that were fully or partly
occupied by Armenian forces during their 1991-94 war.
(The scale and timetable of the Armenian troop withdrawal has been
another contentious issue.) Oskanian implied that the signing of
any Armenian-Azerbaijani agreements before the upcoming polls is
not in the offing. Still, he insisted that the election period "will
not interrupt" the peace process, disagreeing with the widely held
belief that failure to cut a framework peace deal now would keep the
conflict unresolved at least until 2009.
The Minsk Group's U.S. co-chair, Deputy Assistant Secretary of
State Matthew Bryza, likewise claimed in July that the Armenian and
Azerbaijani elections are not an insurmountable obstacle to Karabakh
peace. "If they come up with an agreement that's mutually acceptable,
that should be a plus in an election," he said, referring to Aliyev
and Kocharian. "That's a huge achievement that should actually help
political leaders and their parties to win votes."
Some analysts interpreted the remarks as a sign that the West, and
the United States in particular, will let the ruling regimes in Baku
and Yerevan get away with fresh vote rigging and cling to power if
they embrace the proposed peace formula. Peter Semneby, the European
Union's special representative to the South Caucasus who accused the
two governments of "playing for time," seriously questioned their
commitment to mutual compromise on October 5. According to Semneby,
Azerbaijan is trying to use its soaring oil revenues to change the
balance of forces in its favor, while Armenia hopes that the Karabakh
status quo will "cement itself" in the coming years.
(Zerkalo, November 30; Aravot, November 30; Armenian Public Television,
November 29; RFE/RL Armenia Report, October 5; Interview with Matthew
Bryza, July 29)