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SETTLEMENT IN ARMENIAN MANNER OR TERRITORY IN RETURN FOR REPRODUCTION
Hakob Badalyan
Lragir, Armenia
Dec 6 2006
The stances of the Armenian political forces, both the opposition and
pro-government forces, as well as the the mixed ones, have similarities
along with differences. They all consider the return of the liberated
territories possible, some to a greater extend, others to a lesser
degree. The fact is, however, that if in 1997 Levon Ter-Petrosyan
and his team were alone in their approach on reaching settlement by
returning teritories, now Robert Kocharyan has a number of supporters,
including voluntary and unintentional supporters because the former
government is also a supporter, in fact: it is necessary to return the
territories to reach settlement. Of course, the political forces also
say that their return differs from Levon Ter-Petrosyan's return, and
Levon Ter-Petrosyan's supporters say their return was a better option
than Kocharyan's return. It is a fact, though, that all this talking
involves return of territories, and the details are not essential
because the territories are essential which they are ready to return.
Most people are saying that the conflict has shifted from the problem
of Karabakh to the problem of territories, which they think is
negative. First, if the problem has been shifted to the territories,
it already means that Karabakh is not a problem any more. Is it
positive or not? Of course, it is positive because the independence
of Karabakh does not arouse two opinions in one person any more. In
this case, shifting the problem back from the territories to Karabakh
means endangering the existence of the state of Karabakh. And it is
stunning but this is what the government and the political forces
of Armenia are busy with. They are doing everything to show that the
territories are not a problem for them, the problem is Karabakh. The
purpose is clear: if the problem is shifted to Karabakh, returning the
territories becomes easier because it is presented as the price for the
independence of Karabakh. Meanwhile, a difficult situation is emerging
for the government if the territories become the problem. In this case,
it is clear that the public will be demanding a favorable settlement
of the problem, meanwhile, neither the previous government and the
present government have made any efforts to solve the problem in our
favor. No step has been taken to show the international community that
the Armenian side would govern these territories more effectively
than Azerbaijan. Instead, these territories were used by a group of
people to accumulate wealth, and the last use that the ruling elite
is hoping to get from the territories is an arrangement with the
international community - territory in return for reproduction. And
they are going to blame the opposition for the national tragedy.
In addition, in Armenia all this is served under the peace loving
icing, as if this were the only way of reaching lasting peace. In
reality, the return of the territories does not provide any guarantees,
and it even creates an excellent precondition for war.
The point is that the liberated territories are a security area, which
gives the Armenian force a strategic advantage in case Azerbaijan
steps up an offensive. The Armenian positions are highly favorable
for effective defense and prevention of the military actions in
the territory of Nagorno Karabakh and Armenia. It is known that
in case of aggression the force of any country faces one problem -
moving the military actions from the territory of their own country
to the territory of the foe. The Armenian side has already solved
this problem. Of course, it is possible to rely on the law of nations,
trust the force of diplomatic relations, the recognition by Azerbaijan,
the so-called international guarantees of security.
However, first of all it is necessary to get acquainted with the
distant and recent history of the world. If someone does not fancy
going too far, they can remember the recent clash of Isreal and
Lebannin, when no international guarantee prevented Israel from
demolishing the south of Lebanon. By abandoning these positions of
strategic importance for the Armenian force excellent conditions
are created for Azerbaijan at least to think about military actions
against Karabakh. Of course, now Azerbaijan is not the country which
can make an independent decision on starting war, but the factor of
oil may enhance its geopolitical importance and military potential.
In this case, the international community may help force out Azerbaijan
from Karabakh, and it is possible that the force of the Republic of
Armenia will lead the international peacekeeping contingent stationed
in Karabakh, but the commander will wonder: "How shall I keep peace
in this wilderness?"
Hakob Badalyan
Lragir, Armenia
Dec 6 2006
The stances of the Armenian political forces, both the opposition and
pro-government forces, as well as the the mixed ones, have similarities
along with differences. They all consider the return of the liberated
territories possible, some to a greater extend, others to a lesser
degree. The fact is, however, that if in 1997 Levon Ter-Petrosyan
and his team were alone in their approach on reaching settlement by
returning teritories, now Robert Kocharyan has a number of supporters,
including voluntary and unintentional supporters because the former
government is also a supporter, in fact: it is necessary to return the
territories to reach settlement. Of course, the political forces also
say that their return differs from Levon Ter-Petrosyan's return, and
Levon Ter-Petrosyan's supporters say their return was a better option
than Kocharyan's return. It is a fact, though, that all this talking
involves return of territories, and the details are not essential
because the territories are essential which they are ready to return.
Most people are saying that the conflict has shifted from the problem
of Karabakh to the problem of territories, which they think is
negative. First, if the problem has been shifted to the territories,
it already means that Karabakh is not a problem any more. Is it
positive or not? Of course, it is positive because the independence
of Karabakh does not arouse two opinions in one person any more. In
this case, shifting the problem back from the territories to Karabakh
means endangering the existence of the state of Karabakh. And it is
stunning but this is what the government and the political forces
of Armenia are busy with. They are doing everything to show that the
territories are not a problem for them, the problem is Karabakh. The
purpose is clear: if the problem is shifted to Karabakh, returning the
territories becomes easier because it is presented as the price for the
independence of Karabakh. Meanwhile, a difficult situation is emerging
for the government if the territories become the problem. In this case,
it is clear that the public will be demanding a favorable settlement
of the problem, meanwhile, neither the previous government and the
present government have made any efforts to solve the problem in our
favor. No step has been taken to show the international community that
the Armenian side would govern these territories more effectively
than Azerbaijan. Instead, these territories were used by a group of
people to accumulate wealth, and the last use that the ruling elite
is hoping to get from the territories is an arrangement with the
international community - territory in return for reproduction. And
they are going to blame the opposition for the national tragedy.
In addition, in Armenia all this is served under the peace loving
icing, as if this were the only way of reaching lasting peace. In
reality, the return of the territories does not provide any guarantees,
and it even creates an excellent precondition for war.
The point is that the liberated territories are a security area, which
gives the Armenian force a strategic advantage in case Azerbaijan
steps up an offensive. The Armenian positions are highly favorable
for effective defense and prevention of the military actions in
the territory of Nagorno Karabakh and Armenia. It is known that
in case of aggression the force of any country faces one problem -
moving the military actions from the territory of their own country
to the territory of the foe. The Armenian side has already solved
this problem. Of course, it is possible to rely on the law of nations,
trust the force of diplomatic relations, the recognition by Azerbaijan,
the so-called international guarantees of security.
However, first of all it is necessary to get acquainted with the
distant and recent history of the world. If someone does not fancy
going too far, they can remember the recent clash of Isreal and
Lebannin, when no international guarantee prevented Israel from
demolishing the south of Lebanon. By abandoning these positions of
strategic importance for the Armenian force excellent conditions
are created for Azerbaijan at least to think about military actions
against Karabakh. Of course, now Azerbaijan is not the country which
can make an independent decision on starting war, but the factor of
oil may enhance its geopolitical importance and military potential.
In this case, the international community may help force out Azerbaijan
from Karabakh, and it is possible that the force of the Republic of
Armenia will lead the international peacekeeping contingent stationed
in Karabakh, but the commander will wonder: "How shall I keep peace
in this wilderness?"