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... SPRING WILL COME: ONCE MORE ON THE SUBJECT OF PROMISING NUANCES OF THE KARABAKH CONFLICT RESOLUTION
by political observer Grigori Alexandrjan
Translated by A. Ignatkin
Source: Novoye Vremya (Yerevan), December 5, 2006, EV
Agency WPS
DEFENSE and SECURITY (Russia)
December 13, 2006 Wednesday
ARMENIAN POLITICAL OBSERVER ON THE KARABAKH CONFLICT RESOLUTION;
Analysis of the Karabakh process: a view from Yerevan.
Analysis of the opinions on the Karabakh conflict resolution
process coordinated by chairmen of the OSCE Minsk Group leads to
two conclusions. First, the process is anything but clear. Second,
practically nothing about the talks changed in the last 12 years.
Probably save for the shape of the peace talks as such because the
Armenian population of Nagorno-Karabakh is no longer involved. Status
of the region remains the stumbling block for the whole process
of negotiations. All sorts of statements on what is presented as
"progress" are only restricted to the effort to overcome consequences
of the armed confrontation. Why are the Armenians so worried about
the step-by-step resolution plan? Because we fear that Azerbaijan may
flatly refuse to discuss the status of Karabakh once the troops are
withdrawn from the territories they currently control. Unfortunately,
these fears are not groundless. They are not just a diplomatic whim
or anything like that.
Baku annulled Karabakh Armenians' autonomous status and went to war
on them when not a single district around Karabakh was occupied.
When, in fact, Azerbaijani kept living there. When Azerbaijan was
defeated and conflict resolution talks were under way, our neighbors
drafted a Constitution that does not specify any self-government
powers for Karabakh. When Ilham Aliyev or his Foreign Minister Elmar
Mamedjarov maintain nowadays that the matter of status should be
settled on the basis of the acting Constitution of Azerbaijan,
we are at a loss over how we are supposed to react. Demanding
it at this point makes all and any talks a plain waste of time
and effort. That is why the Armenians insist on a document that
will specify overcoming consequences of the military phase of the
conflict and, no less important, outline the principle definition
of the status of Karabakh. In other words, the Armenians stand for
gradual implementation of a package accord so that neither involved
party will be able to shirk any clause of the document.
As for Aliyev, he says he is not going to sign any document that so
much even hints at the possibility that Karabakh may eventually quit
Azerbaijan. In the meantime, everyone is stone-cold confident that
Aliyev will be elected president again in 2008 (he will all but elect
himself, really), but Robert Kocharjan in Armenia will step down in
2008. It follows that the positions of the involved parties are not
going to change at least until 2008. Count on Aliyev not to change
his stand on the matter. And what will the next president of Armenia
do? Our neighbors would certainly like to know that. They are stalling
for time in the hope that the new head of the Armenian state will
reconsider his options. That is why we do not really expect Aliyev
to sign any documents pending election of the president in Armenia.
If the heads of states decide to sign a document that does not specify
the procedure of Karabakh's status definition on the other hand, they
will incur the wrath of their own peoples and opposition forces. It
does not take a genius to foresee that every president will present
the document as his own diplomatic triumph. In the meantime, it is
impossible to have two winners and not a single loser, isn't it?
Statements made in Yerevan and Baku nowadays plainly indicate that
neither side so much as entertains the thought of a compromise in
the matter of Karabakh's status even though both capitals do extol
the latest meeting between Armenian and Azerbaijani presidents in
Minsk, Belarus.
All of that confirms our previous forecasts that chairmen of the OSCE
Minsk Group would do everything in their power to create at least
an illusion of some progress made in this "year of opportunities",
everything to prevent the process of negotiations from becoming
history altogether. Neither involved party will outsmart the other.
Neither will international mediators fare any better. Judging by
the latest statements made by senior Armenian and Azerbaijani
negotiators, they are determined to be on the level with their
respective peoples. It apparently means that we will yet encounter new
"promising nuances" in the conflict resolution saga.
It is the unbelievable lack of information on what is happening in
the conflict area and what the conflicting sides are after displayed
by some representatives of the West that cannot help being amazing.
According to a story in the Baku newspaper Zerkalo, one Steffen
Raiche of the German Bundestag believes that the Armenians living in
Karabakh might accept autonomy in Azerbaijan as long as the Azerbaijani
authorities permit them to commemorate victims of genocide of the
Armenians in Osmani Turkey! Along with everything else, the German
lawmaker is confident that it is the Azerbaijanis who aspire for a
just and fair resolution. "The Armenians themselves will slow down
their development unless they do what they can to have spring to
come into the region. Whoever refuses to join prosperous Azerbaijan
nowadays will miss his chance for millennia to come..."
by political observer Grigori Alexandrjan
Translated by A. Ignatkin
Source: Novoye Vremya (Yerevan), December 5, 2006, EV
Agency WPS
DEFENSE and SECURITY (Russia)
December 13, 2006 Wednesday
ARMENIAN POLITICAL OBSERVER ON THE KARABAKH CONFLICT RESOLUTION;
Analysis of the Karabakh process: a view from Yerevan.
Analysis of the opinions on the Karabakh conflict resolution
process coordinated by chairmen of the OSCE Minsk Group leads to
two conclusions. First, the process is anything but clear. Second,
practically nothing about the talks changed in the last 12 years.
Probably save for the shape of the peace talks as such because the
Armenian population of Nagorno-Karabakh is no longer involved. Status
of the region remains the stumbling block for the whole process
of negotiations. All sorts of statements on what is presented as
"progress" are only restricted to the effort to overcome consequences
of the armed confrontation. Why are the Armenians so worried about
the step-by-step resolution plan? Because we fear that Azerbaijan may
flatly refuse to discuss the status of Karabakh once the troops are
withdrawn from the territories they currently control. Unfortunately,
these fears are not groundless. They are not just a diplomatic whim
or anything like that.
Baku annulled Karabakh Armenians' autonomous status and went to war
on them when not a single district around Karabakh was occupied.
When, in fact, Azerbaijani kept living there. When Azerbaijan was
defeated and conflict resolution talks were under way, our neighbors
drafted a Constitution that does not specify any self-government
powers for Karabakh. When Ilham Aliyev or his Foreign Minister Elmar
Mamedjarov maintain nowadays that the matter of status should be
settled on the basis of the acting Constitution of Azerbaijan,
we are at a loss over how we are supposed to react. Demanding
it at this point makes all and any talks a plain waste of time
and effort. That is why the Armenians insist on a document that
will specify overcoming consequences of the military phase of the
conflict and, no less important, outline the principle definition
of the status of Karabakh. In other words, the Armenians stand for
gradual implementation of a package accord so that neither involved
party will be able to shirk any clause of the document.
As for Aliyev, he says he is not going to sign any document that so
much even hints at the possibility that Karabakh may eventually quit
Azerbaijan. In the meantime, everyone is stone-cold confident that
Aliyev will be elected president again in 2008 (he will all but elect
himself, really), but Robert Kocharjan in Armenia will step down in
2008. It follows that the positions of the involved parties are not
going to change at least until 2008. Count on Aliyev not to change
his stand on the matter. And what will the next president of Armenia
do? Our neighbors would certainly like to know that. They are stalling
for time in the hope that the new head of the Armenian state will
reconsider his options. That is why we do not really expect Aliyev
to sign any documents pending election of the president in Armenia.
If the heads of states decide to sign a document that does not specify
the procedure of Karabakh's status definition on the other hand, they
will incur the wrath of their own peoples and opposition forces. It
does not take a genius to foresee that every president will present
the document as his own diplomatic triumph. In the meantime, it is
impossible to have two winners and not a single loser, isn't it?
Statements made in Yerevan and Baku nowadays plainly indicate that
neither side so much as entertains the thought of a compromise in
the matter of Karabakh's status even though both capitals do extol
the latest meeting between Armenian and Azerbaijani presidents in
Minsk, Belarus.
All of that confirms our previous forecasts that chairmen of the OSCE
Minsk Group would do everything in their power to create at least
an illusion of some progress made in this "year of opportunities",
everything to prevent the process of negotiations from becoming
history altogether. Neither involved party will outsmart the other.
Neither will international mediators fare any better. Judging by
the latest statements made by senior Armenian and Azerbaijani
negotiators, they are determined to be on the level with their
respective peoples. It apparently means that we will yet encounter new
"promising nuances" in the conflict resolution saga.
It is the unbelievable lack of information on what is happening in
the conflict area and what the conflicting sides are after displayed
by some representatives of the West that cannot help being amazing.
According to a story in the Baku newspaper Zerkalo, one Steffen
Raiche of the German Bundestag believes that the Armenians living in
Karabakh might accept autonomy in Azerbaijan as long as the Azerbaijani
authorities permit them to commemorate victims of genocide of the
Armenians in Osmani Turkey! Along with everything else, the German
lawmaker is confident that it is the Azerbaijanis who aspire for a
just and fair resolution. "The Armenians themselves will slow down
their development unless they do what they can to have spring to
come into the region. Whoever refuses to join prosperous Azerbaijan
nowadays will miss his chance for millennia to come..."