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Agency WPS
DEFENSE and SECURITY (Russia)
July 17, 2006 Monday
THE UNITED STATES HELPED KILL SHAMIL BASAYEV;
Turkey and Georgia also participated in the operation
by: Igor Yavlyansky
THE SHIPMENT THAT KILLED BASAYEV CAME FROM IRAQ, VIA TURKEY AND
GEORGIA; By consulting experts and studying open sources, we have
attempted to analyze where the consignment of weapons originated,
the route it took to Ingushetia - and who might have helped deliver
it to the addressee, Shamil Basayev, complete and undamaged.
We continue our own investigation into the circumstances of Shamil
Basayev's death. This time, by consulting experts and studying open
sources, we have attempted to analyze where the consignment of weapons
originated, the route it took to Ingushetia - and who might have helped
deliver it to the addressee, Shamil Basayev, complete and undamaged.
The weapons shipment contained a detonator, planted by the Federal
Security Service (FSB). Where did the shipment originate? Our
impression is that this operation was launched by President Vladimir
Putin himself. In an Interfax news agency report from July 11, an
unidentified expert described as a Russian special services veteran
declined to answer when asked to name the country from which Basayev's
weapons consignment came, but recommended "a close analysis of media
reports over the past two months" about contacts between Russia's
top leaders and representatives of other countries.
So we went ahead and did that. What catches the eye immediately is the
frequency of contacts between President Vladimir Putin and President
George W. Bush. They spoke by phone on May 1, May 30, June 5, June 19,
and July 6. In all these conversations, according to official reports,
one of the most important topic was the war on terrorism.
On June 6, a day after talking to Bush, Putin met with former US
Secretary of State Henry Kissinger. Most likely, Kissinger wasn't fully
informed about what was happening; but Putin directed his remarks at
the television cameras as well as at Kissinger.
"Our views don't always coincide, but we understand each other and find
a compromise," Putin said to Kissinger. "Of course, our cooperation
in the area of fighting terrorism remains fairly urgent.
I spoke to the President of the United States by phone only
yesterday. We maintain permanent contacts at practically all levels
and between all state agencies."
With the "prompt" provided by the unnamed special services source,
Putin's words here may well be interpreted as a hint at meetings
between Russian and US intelligence agencies.
Now let's approach this from another angle. Where was the weapons
consignment put together? In his report to Putin, FSB Director Nikolai
Patrushev said: "This operation became possible thanks to the fact
that operative positions had been established abroad, primarily in
those countries where weapons were assembled and subsequently sent
to Russia."
In this context, the word "assembled" clearly doesn't refer to the
factory production process; it refers to the location where the
weapons consignment was put together before being shipped to Basayev.
One of the experts we consulted pointed out that Chechen guerrillas
always say they acquire their weapons from the Russian military.
Undoubtedly, such incidents do happen sometimes; but our source
maintains that there's more talk than evidence of Russian military
personnel selling arms to the guerrillas. And this is where the talk
originates: Soviet-made weapons could fall into terrorist hands not
only from Russian military storehouses, but also from other countries
that bought such weapons from Russia or the Soviet Union.
Given this and other abovementioned factors, the experts we consulted
consider the leading theory to be as follows: the weapons consignment
was probably collected in Iraq. The situation there resembles
Dudayev-era Chechnya: a devastated society in which former military
personnel are selling off entire arsenals. Such things also happen
in the Balkans, but we rejected that option, since the weapons there
are all Yugoslav- or Chinese-made. And the specialists we consulted
pointed to Iraq, where the former National Guard has scattered,
taking a great number of weapons.
So the shipment originated in Iraq. This is an undisputed
"responsibility zone" of the United States. Some reliable informers
might have told the Russian special services about the cargo being
assembled. But in order to make this work to Russia's advantage,
it would have been necessary to cooperate with the Americans and
the new Iraqi special services established by the Americans - they
still have the final say in the region. The Russian special services
needed to plant a detonator in the weapons shipment, then track the
shipment's progress all the way along its route. And that leads us
to a sensational conclusion: only America could have provided Russia
with this kind of assistance.
How was the cargo delivered to Ingushetia? We can rule out the
Iran-Armenia-Azerbaijan route. Firstly, Iran is an unfriendly zone
for terrorists. Its borders are closely monitored, to guard against
drug trafficking. Moreover, Iran is one of the few countries in
the Islamic world that has not been known to support the Chechen
separatists. Secondly, due to the continual conflicts between Armenia
and Azerbaijan, all cargo crossing the border between these two
countries is checked very thoroughly. Thirdly, there's a shorter and
less problematic route: via Turkey and Georgia.
Turkey is a complicated country. It's more than just a favorite
holiday destination for Russian tourists. But times change, and the
influence of the United States on Turkey is very great. If our first
conclusion (that the Americans have been helping our special services)
is correct, it would be logical to assume that they helped us reach
agreement with Turkey as well.
Next up, Georgia. Everyone is aware of Russia's difficult relationship
with Georgia's proud president, Mikhail Saakashvili. The power of US
influence on Saakashvili is equally well-known. But let's not forget
the problem of the Pankisi Gorge, the terrorist bases there, and the
inconveniences this creates for Georgia. For example, the Western
European community used to have a certain amount of sympathy for the
Chechen separatists and Georgia, which supported the separatists;
but the situation has changed since the Paris trial of "Chechen
terrorists" who were planning an act of terrorism in France.
The court established that these terrorists had been trained in the
Pankisi Gorge.
Thus, having consulted experts and open sources, we conclude that the
weapons consignment was collected in Iraq; the detonator and radio
beacon were planted in the consignment in Iraq; and the consignment
was then delivered to Ingushetia via Turkey and Georgia.
There is also the possibility that the FSB's radio beacon was planted
en route, perhaps in Georgia, rather than in Iraq - but this is
unlikely. One of Basayev's emissaries probably took delivery of
the deadly cargo in Iraq and examined it thoroughly. His inspection
process might have involved placing secret marks on the cargo, to
make it obvious if anyone tampered with the goods along the way.
So why would Russia need to monitor the shipment's progress and
seek a friendly attitude from the transit countries? The answer is
simple: in order to prevent any accidents. Russia had to ensure that
local special services, police, or criminals wouldn't intercept this
important shipment, so that it could reach its designated recipient
complete and undamaged - and then fulfill its mission.
(...)
Source: Izvestia, July 14, 2006, p. 3
Translated by Elena Leonova
DEFENSE and SECURITY (Russia)
July 17, 2006 Monday
THE UNITED STATES HELPED KILL SHAMIL BASAYEV;
Turkey and Georgia also participated in the operation
by: Igor Yavlyansky
THE SHIPMENT THAT KILLED BASAYEV CAME FROM IRAQ, VIA TURKEY AND
GEORGIA; By consulting experts and studying open sources, we have
attempted to analyze where the consignment of weapons originated,
the route it took to Ingushetia - and who might have helped deliver
it to the addressee, Shamil Basayev, complete and undamaged.
We continue our own investigation into the circumstances of Shamil
Basayev's death. This time, by consulting experts and studying open
sources, we have attempted to analyze where the consignment of weapons
originated, the route it took to Ingushetia - and who might have helped
deliver it to the addressee, Shamil Basayev, complete and undamaged.
The weapons shipment contained a detonator, planted by the Federal
Security Service (FSB). Where did the shipment originate? Our
impression is that this operation was launched by President Vladimir
Putin himself. In an Interfax news agency report from July 11, an
unidentified expert described as a Russian special services veteran
declined to answer when asked to name the country from which Basayev's
weapons consignment came, but recommended "a close analysis of media
reports over the past two months" about contacts between Russia's
top leaders and representatives of other countries.
So we went ahead and did that. What catches the eye immediately is the
frequency of contacts between President Vladimir Putin and President
George W. Bush. They spoke by phone on May 1, May 30, June 5, June 19,
and July 6. In all these conversations, according to official reports,
one of the most important topic was the war on terrorism.
On June 6, a day after talking to Bush, Putin met with former US
Secretary of State Henry Kissinger. Most likely, Kissinger wasn't fully
informed about what was happening; but Putin directed his remarks at
the television cameras as well as at Kissinger.
"Our views don't always coincide, but we understand each other and find
a compromise," Putin said to Kissinger. "Of course, our cooperation
in the area of fighting terrorism remains fairly urgent.
I spoke to the President of the United States by phone only
yesterday. We maintain permanent contacts at practically all levels
and between all state agencies."
With the "prompt" provided by the unnamed special services source,
Putin's words here may well be interpreted as a hint at meetings
between Russian and US intelligence agencies.
Now let's approach this from another angle. Where was the weapons
consignment put together? In his report to Putin, FSB Director Nikolai
Patrushev said: "This operation became possible thanks to the fact
that operative positions had been established abroad, primarily in
those countries where weapons were assembled and subsequently sent
to Russia."
In this context, the word "assembled" clearly doesn't refer to the
factory production process; it refers to the location where the
weapons consignment was put together before being shipped to Basayev.
One of the experts we consulted pointed out that Chechen guerrillas
always say they acquire their weapons from the Russian military.
Undoubtedly, such incidents do happen sometimes; but our source
maintains that there's more talk than evidence of Russian military
personnel selling arms to the guerrillas. And this is where the talk
originates: Soviet-made weapons could fall into terrorist hands not
only from Russian military storehouses, but also from other countries
that bought such weapons from Russia or the Soviet Union.
Given this and other abovementioned factors, the experts we consulted
consider the leading theory to be as follows: the weapons consignment
was probably collected in Iraq. The situation there resembles
Dudayev-era Chechnya: a devastated society in which former military
personnel are selling off entire arsenals. Such things also happen
in the Balkans, but we rejected that option, since the weapons there
are all Yugoslav- or Chinese-made. And the specialists we consulted
pointed to Iraq, where the former National Guard has scattered,
taking a great number of weapons.
So the shipment originated in Iraq. This is an undisputed
"responsibility zone" of the United States. Some reliable informers
might have told the Russian special services about the cargo being
assembled. But in order to make this work to Russia's advantage,
it would have been necessary to cooperate with the Americans and
the new Iraqi special services established by the Americans - they
still have the final say in the region. The Russian special services
needed to plant a detonator in the weapons shipment, then track the
shipment's progress all the way along its route. And that leads us
to a sensational conclusion: only America could have provided Russia
with this kind of assistance.
How was the cargo delivered to Ingushetia? We can rule out the
Iran-Armenia-Azerbaijan route. Firstly, Iran is an unfriendly zone
for terrorists. Its borders are closely monitored, to guard against
drug trafficking. Moreover, Iran is one of the few countries in
the Islamic world that has not been known to support the Chechen
separatists. Secondly, due to the continual conflicts between Armenia
and Azerbaijan, all cargo crossing the border between these two
countries is checked very thoroughly. Thirdly, there's a shorter and
less problematic route: via Turkey and Georgia.
Turkey is a complicated country. It's more than just a favorite
holiday destination for Russian tourists. But times change, and the
influence of the United States on Turkey is very great. If our first
conclusion (that the Americans have been helping our special services)
is correct, it would be logical to assume that they helped us reach
agreement with Turkey as well.
Next up, Georgia. Everyone is aware of Russia's difficult relationship
with Georgia's proud president, Mikhail Saakashvili. The power of US
influence on Saakashvili is equally well-known. But let's not forget
the problem of the Pankisi Gorge, the terrorist bases there, and the
inconveniences this creates for Georgia. For example, the Western
European community used to have a certain amount of sympathy for the
Chechen separatists and Georgia, which supported the separatists;
but the situation has changed since the Paris trial of "Chechen
terrorists" who were planning an act of terrorism in France.
The court established that these terrorists had been trained in the
Pankisi Gorge.
Thus, having consulted experts and open sources, we conclude that the
weapons consignment was collected in Iraq; the detonator and radio
beacon were planted in the consignment in Iraq; and the consignment
was then delivered to Ingushetia via Turkey and Georgia.
There is also the possibility that the FSB's radio beacon was planted
en route, perhaps in Georgia, rather than in Iraq - but this is
unlikely. One of Basayev's emissaries probably took delivery of
the deadly cargo in Iraq and examined it thoroughly. His inspection
process might have involved placing secret marks on the cargo, to
make it obvious if anyone tampered with the goods along the way.
So why would Russia need to monitor the shipment's progress and
seek a friendly attitude from the transit countries? The answer is
simple: in order to prevent any accidents. Russia had to ensure that
local special services, police, or criminals wouldn't intercept this
important shipment, so that it could reach its designated recipient
complete and undamaged - and then fulfill its mission.
(...)
Source: Izvestia, July 14, 2006, p. 3
Translated by Elena Leonova