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SUMMIT PRESCRIBES CIS LITE; PUTIN BLINKS BEFORE SAAKASHVILI;
VORONIN STANDS UP TO PUTIN
Eurasia Daily Monitor, DC
July 24, 2006
By Vladimir Socor
Devalued by an unusually low attendance -- only eight out of twelve
presidents -- the CIS informal summit in Moscow on July 21-22 marks
the official transition of this organization to a "lite" version of
its former self. With Russian President Vladimir Putin's acquiescence,
Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev presented a set of proposals
to reduce the CIS to a few functions, mainly in the sphere of
social projects. Moreover, Putin blinked before the absent Georgian
President, Mikheil Saakashvili, by eschewing a discussion on Russian
"peacekeeping" in Abkhazia, even though the Kremlin itself and all
of Russia's officialdom insisted all along that this issue belongs
to the CIS competency.
The summit's agenda included a CIS "assessment of world
developments" -- the usual exercise to line up the presidents behind
a Kremlin-drafted statement on international issues -- as well as CIS
reform. In view of the low attendance, however, the Kremlin decided to
drop the joint statement at the last moment on July 21. The following
day, Putin asked Nazarbayev to present proposals for CIS reform that
Nazarbayev had been authorized to prepare in his capacity as chairman
of the CIS Council of Heads of State.
Nazarbayev's report acknowledges that the CIS does not meet the
requirements of an integration organization, having failed to create
even a free-trade zone, let alone a customs or monetary union or a
common security policy. He proposes that the CIS henceforth focus
on harmonizing member states' policies on five issues: a) regulating
migration; b) developing transport links; c) promoting exchanges in
the sphere of education; d) dealing with cultural and humanitarian
issues [often a euphemism for maintaining a Russian-language cultural
environment]; and e) tackling trans-border criminality.
Moreover, Nazarbayev proposes continuing cuts in the personnel of
Moscow-based CIS structures and transferring their functions to
"national coordinators" who would reside in the member countries'
capitals. Reducing the budget and personnel of CIS offices in
Moscow is a trademark Nazarbayev idea, and it is partly thanks
to his insistence that those structures have been cut radically in
recent years. Any further cut would almost certainly bring their final
demise. The proposed institution of nationally based coordinators seems
inspired by the GUAM model used by Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan,
and Moldova. Although GUAM is not yet functional, its national
coordinators at least provide a flexible and cost-effective mechanism
for development and implementation of policy decisions.
The report has on the whole been accepted as a basis for further
discussion, but could not be seriously discussed because the document
was belatedly circulated on the summit's opening day. The presidents
are to submit their suggestions to Nazarbayev for further development
of the proposals. Nazarbayev will retain his chairmanship of the
presidents' conclave (temporarily suspending the rotation in that
chair) in order to finalize his report. He concluded, "Everyone knows
that the CIS states are unhappy about the work of this organization,
and some are very unhappy . . . The CIS has actually turned into a
club for the presidents' meetings" (NTV Mir, July 22).
The club function is supposed to enable the presidents to hold
bilateral or small-format meetings on the summit's sidelines. However,
even the club function is questionable with only eight presidents
in attendance, and Putin declining to meet bilaterally with the two
presidents who had wanted such meetings: Georgia's Saakashvili, who
was refused one day before the summit, and Moldova's Vladimir Voronin
who was denied a bilateral meeting with Putin while the summit was
in progress.
The gist of what Voronin might have told Putin can be gauged from the
Moldovan president's interview with the liberal Ekho Moskvy radio
-- one of the few Moscow media outlets still open to him -- on the
summit's opening day, when he was still hoping for a bilateral meeting
with the Russian president. Voronin pointed to Russia's recruitment
of Transnistria's leaders "in the Siberian Taiga and [Soviet] Riga
special police [reference to these leaders' actual backgrounds];
called for replacement of Russia's "peacekeeping" operations with
an international mission of observers, both military and civilian;
ridiculed Moscow's claim that Transnistria's authorities "do not
permit" Russia to remove its arsenals and troops from the area (a
claim repeated on July 20 by Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs
Sergei Lavrov); protested against Russia's politically motivated
embargo on Moldovan wines (50% market share in Russia prior to the
ban); and deplored Russia's "destruction" of what Voronin described as
centuries-old Moldovan good will toward Russia (Ekho Moskvy, July 21).
Putin pointedly expressed his "thanks to those who found it possible
to come to Moscow." Among those who did not find it possible, Turkmen
President Saparmurat Niyazov is often absent from CIS summits; this
time, however, he is openly in conflict with Moscow over the price
of Turkmen gas deliveries to Gazprom.
Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko canceled his attendance with
less than 24 hours' advance notice, citing the complicated political
situation in the country. A presidential communique went out of
its way to assure Russia and Putin personally of the "sincerity of
Ukraine's relations with Russia as well as of the fact that Russia is
a strategic partner of Ukraine" and invited Putin to visit Ukraine. A
further invitation will follow by official letter from Yushchenko, his
office announced (Interfax-Ukraine, July 21). This marks at least the
fifth public and somewhat supplicating invitation from Yushchenko to
Putin to visit Ukraine. Yushchenko previously issued such invitations
in August, November, and December 2005 and January 2006 publicly,
and was also hoping to receive Putin in Ukraine ahead of the March
26 parliamentary elections.
Armenian President Robert Kocharian was set to attend and likely to
meet with Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev in Putin's presence
at this summit. However, Kocharian canceled his attendance at the
summit only hours before its opening on July 21, citing a viral
respiratory problem. In any case, he faces an internal political
problem, as Defense Minister Serge Sarkisian seems set to launch a
bid for supreme power.
(Interfax, Khabar, Mediamax, Arminfo, July 21, 22)
VORONIN STANDS UP TO PUTIN
Eurasia Daily Monitor, DC
July 24, 2006
By Vladimir Socor
Devalued by an unusually low attendance -- only eight out of twelve
presidents -- the CIS informal summit in Moscow on July 21-22 marks
the official transition of this organization to a "lite" version of
its former self. With Russian President Vladimir Putin's acquiescence,
Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev presented a set of proposals
to reduce the CIS to a few functions, mainly in the sphere of
social projects. Moreover, Putin blinked before the absent Georgian
President, Mikheil Saakashvili, by eschewing a discussion on Russian
"peacekeeping" in Abkhazia, even though the Kremlin itself and all
of Russia's officialdom insisted all along that this issue belongs
to the CIS competency.
The summit's agenda included a CIS "assessment of world
developments" -- the usual exercise to line up the presidents behind
a Kremlin-drafted statement on international issues -- as well as CIS
reform. In view of the low attendance, however, the Kremlin decided to
drop the joint statement at the last moment on July 21. The following
day, Putin asked Nazarbayev to present proposals for CIS reform that
Nazarbayev had been authorized to prepare in his capacity as chairman
of the CIS Council of Heads of State.
Nazarbayev's report acknowledges that the CIS does not meet the
requirements of an integration organization, having failed to create
even a free-trade zone, let alone a customs or monetary union or a
common security policy. He proposes that the CIS henceforth focus
on harmonizing member states' policies on five issues: a) regulating
migration; b) developing transport links; c) promoting exchanges in
the sphere of education; d) dealing with cultural and humanitarian
issues [often a euphemism for maintaining a Russian-language cultural
environment]; and e) tackling trans-border criminality.
Moreover, Nazarbayev proposes continuing cuts in the personnel of
Moscow-based CIS structures and transferring their functions to
"national coordinators" who would reside in the member countries'
capitals. Reducing the budget and personnel of CIS offices in
Moscow is a trademark Nazarbayev idea, and it is partly thanks
to his insistence that those structures have been cut radically in
recent years. Any further cut would almost certainly bring their final
demise. The proposed institution of nationally based coordinators seems
inspired by the GUAM model used by Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan,
and Moldova. Although GUAM is not yet functional, its national
coordinators at least provide a flexible and cost-effective mechanism
for development and implementation of policy decisions.
The report has on the whole been accepted as a basis for further
discussion, but could not be seriously discussed because the document
was belatedly circulated on the summit's opening day. The presidents
are to submit their suggestions to Nazarbayev for further development
of the proposals. Nazarbayev will retain his chairmanship of the
presidents' conclave (temporarily suspending the rotation in that
chair) in order to finalize his report. He concluded, "Everyone knows
that the CIS states are unhappy about the work of this organization,
and some are very unhappy . . . The CIS has actually turned into a
club for the presidents' meetings" (NTV Mir, July 22).
The club function is supposed to enable the presidents to hold
bilateral or small-format meetings on the summit's sidelines. However,
even the club function is questionable with only eight presidents
in attendance, and Putin declining to meet bilaterally with the two
presidents who had wanted such meetings: Georgia's Saakashvili, who
was refused one day before the summit, and Moldova's Vladimir Voronin
who was denied a bilateral meeting with Putin while the summit was
in progress.
The gist of what Voronin might have told Putin can be gauged from the
Moldovan president's interview with the liberal Ekho Moskvy radio
-- one of the few Moscow media outlets still open to him -- on the
summit's opening day, when he was still hoping for a bilateral meeting
with the Russian president. Voronin pointed to Russia's recruitment
of Transnistria's leaders "in the Siberian Taiga and [Soviet] Riga
special police [reference to these leaders' actual backgrounds];
called for replacement of Russia's "peacekeeping" operations with
an international mission of observers, both military and civilian;
ridiculed Moscow's claim that Transnistria's authorities "do not
permit" Russia to remove its arsenals and troops from the area (a
claim repeated on July 20 by Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs
Sergei Lavrov); protested against Russia's politically motivated
embargo on Moldovan wines (50% market share in Russia prior to the
ban); and deplored Russia's "destruction" of what Voronin described as
centuries-old Moldovan good will toward Russia (Ekho Moskvy, July 21).
Putin pointedly expressed his "thanks to those who found it possible
to come to Moscow." Among those who did not find it possible, Turkmen
President Saparmurat Niyazov is often absent from CIS summits; this
time, however, he is openly in conflict with Moscow over the price
of Turkmen gas deliveries to Gazprom.
Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko canceled his attendance with
less than 24 hours' advance notice, citing the complicated political
situation in the country. A presidential communique went out of
its way to assure Russia and Putin personally of the "sincerity of
Ukraine's relations with Russia as well as of the fact that Russia is
a strategic partner of Ukraine" and invited Putin to visit Ukraine. A
further invitation will follow by official letter from Yushchenko, his
office announced (Interfax-Ukraine, July 21). This marks at least the
fifth public and somewhat supplicating invitation from Yushchenko to
Putin to visit Ukraine. Yushchenko previously issued such invitations
in August, November, and December 2005 and January 2006 publicly,
and was also hoping to receive Putin in Ukraine ahead of the March
26 parliamentary elections.
Armenian President Robert Kocharian was set to attend and likely to
meet with Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev in Putin's presence
at this summit. However, Kocharian canceled his attendance at the
summit only hours before its opening on July 21, citing a viral
respiratory problem. In any case, he faces an internal political
problem, as Defense Minister Serge Sarkisian seems set to launch a
bid for supreme power.
(Interfax, Khabar, Mediamax, Arminfo, July 21, 22)