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ARMENIA, AZERBAIJAN UNDER STRONG PRESSURE TO HAMMER OUT NK PEACE
By Emil Danielyan
Eurasia Daily Monitor, DC
May 31 2006
The United States, Russia, and France are stepping up pressure on
Armenia and Azerbaijan in a last-ditch attempt to secure a framework
agreement settling the Karabakh conflict this year. The three powers
co-chairing the OSCE Minsk Group have set the stage for yet another
Armenian-Azerbaijani summit that could prove decisive in eliminating
the number one source of instability in the South Caucasus.
Official Baku and Yerevan announced last week that Presidents Ilham
Aliyev and Robert Kocharian will meet for a second time in less than
four months on the sidelines of a high-level forum of Black Sea states
that is scheduled to take place in Bucharest on June 4-6. All signs
suggest that the two leaders are as close to striking a compromise deal
as ever. Their failure to do so would be an enormous setback that would
keep the bitter territorial dispute unresolved at least until 2009.
High-ranking French, Russian, and U.S. diplomats underscored this
reality as they paid an extraordinary joint visit to the Azerbaijani
and Armenian capitals on May 24-25. (Such trips are usually made by
lower-level diplomats representing the two states.) In a statement
issued after talks with Aliyev and Kocharian, U.S. Assistant Secretary
of State Daniel Fried, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin,
and a senior French Foreign Ministry official, Pierre Morel, emphasized
that "now is the time for the sides to reach agreement on the basic
principles of a settlement." The conflicting parties, they said, are
now "at the point where a mutually beneficial agreement is achievable."
Aliyev and Kocharian were already widely expected to hammer out such
an agreement when they last met at the Rambouillet chateau near Paris
on February 10-11. However, the talks collapsed despite indications
that the two sides had agreed in principle to a gradual resolution
of the conflict as proposed by the mediators. The peace plan would
reportedly enable Karabakh's predominantly Armenian population to
decide the disputed region's status in a referendum to be held after
the restoration of six of the seven Armenian-occupied districts
in Azerbaijan proper. Few observers doubt that such a vote would
formalize and legitimize Armenia's de facto reunification of Karabakh
that followed its victorious 1991-94 war with Azerbaijan.
Armenian officials have implied that the Rambouillet talks failed to
yield a breakthrough because of Aliyev's last-minute rejection of this
peace formula. Indeed, the Azerbaijani president toughened his rhetoric
following the summit, repeatedly saying that he will never accept a
de jure loss of Karabakh. In a May 26 speech in Baku, he stated, "All
the occupied territories of Azerbaijan should be liberated without any
conditions." However, Aliyev's foreign minister, Elmar Mammadyarov,
appeared to have endorsed the referendum option in separate comments
made on the same day. Azerbaijani news agencies quoted Mammadyarov
as saying that Karabakh's status must be determined "not only by
Karabakh's Armenian community but also with the participation in the
process of the Azerbaijani community, after the return of Azerbaijanis
that used to live there."
The remarks may be not only the result of the mediators' latest
regional tour but also of Aliyev's April talks in Washington with
U.S. President George W. Bush. Some Armenian commentators have
suggested that the high-profile White House reception, which boosted
the domestic and international legitimacy of Aliyev's regime, was
part of U.S. efforts to coax Baku into signing up to the Minsk Group
plan. The Turan news agency reported that, in a congratulatory message
on Azerbaijan's Day of the Republic celebrated on May 28, Bush said he
expects Aliyev to do his best to resolve the Karabakh conflict. Aliyev
also received last week a letter from French President Jacques Chirac
who urged him not to miss a "unique opportunity" for Karabakh peace,
according to the Azerbaijani ANS television.
The West does not have to exert the same amount of pressure on
Armenia, whose leadership seems to be largely going along with the
mediators' most recent peace proposals. Local analysts agree that,
by accepting the proposed solution, Kocharian would almost certainly
secure Western support for his reputed plans to hand over power to
his most influential associate, Defense Minister Serge Sarkisian,
in 2008. Kocharian would hardly face strong opposition from
hardline political elements in his government, notably the Armenian
Revolutionary Federation (HHD). The Yerevan daily Aravot quoted on May
27 Armen Rustamian, an HHD leader who heads the Armenian parliament's
foreign relations committed, as saying that the referendum option is
"not unfavorable for Armenia and Karabakh."
Still, the Kocharian-Sarkisian duo would have to reckon with the
position of the Yerkrapah Union, an influential organization uniting
thousands of Armenian veterans of the Karabakh war. Its hardline
chairman, General Manvel Grigorian, and other leaders hold senior
positions in the Armenian military. Grigorian declared on May 8 that
the Armenians "have no lands to surrender." Karabakh's ethnic Armenian
leadership is also less than supportive of the Minsk Group plan,
arguing that the Karabakh Armenians had already voted to secede from
Azerbaijan in 1991. "Even if the Karabakh side agrees to it for some
reason, which I don't consider likely, I doubt that such a referendum
will ever be held," a senior aide to Arkady Ghukasian, president of
the self-proclaimed Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, told RFE/RL on May 22.
The mediators are clearly not of the same opinion. "The two sides are
closer to an agreement than they have been in the past," Fried's deputy
Matthew Bryza told congressional hearings in Washington on May 15. "We
look at these next couple of months as a real window of opportunity."
(Joint statement by Daniel Fried, Grigory Karasin, and Pierre Morel,
May 25; ANS, Aravot, May 27; Turan, Day.az, May 26; RFE/RL Armenia
Report, May 22; Associated Press, May 15)
By Emil Danielyan
Eurasia Daily Monitor, DC
May 31 2006
The United States, Russia, and France are stepping up pressure on
Armenia and Azerbaijan in a last-ditch attempt to secure a framework
agreement settling the Karabakh conflict this year. The three powers
co-chairing the OSCE Minsk Group have set the stage for yet another
Armenian-Azerbaijani summit that could prove decisive in eliminating
the number one source of instability in the South Caucasus.
Official Baku and Yerevan announced last week that Presidents Ilham
Aliyev and Robert Kocharian will meet for a second time in less than
four months on the sidelines of a high-level forum of Black Sea states
that is scheduled to take place in Bucharest on June 4-6. All signs
suggest that the two leaders are as close to striking a compromise deal
as ever. Their failure to do so would be an enormous setback that would
keep the bitter territorial dispute unresolved at least until 2009.
High-ranking French, Russian, and U.S. diplomats underscored this
reality as they paid an extraordinary joint visit to the Azerbaijani
and Armenian capitals on May 24-25. (Such trips are usually made by
lower-level diplomats representing the two states.) In a statement
issued after talks with Aliyev and Kocharian, U.S. Assistant Secretary
of State Daniel Fried, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin,
and a senior French Foreign Ministry official, Pierre Morel, emphasized
that "now is the time for the sides to reach agreement on the basic
principles of a settlement." The conflicting parties, they said, are
now "at the point where a mutually beneficial agreement is achievable."
Aliyev and Kocharian were already widely expected to hammer out such
an agreement when they last met at the Rambouillet chateau near Paris
on February 10-11. However, the talks collapsed despite indications
that the two sides had agreed in principle to a gradual resolution
of the conflict as proposed by the mediators. The peace plan would
reportedly enable Karabakh's predominantly Armenian population to
decide the disputed region's status in a referendum to be held after
the restoration of six of the seven Armenian-occupied districts
in Azerbaijan proper. Few observers doubt that such a vote would
formalize and legitimize Armenia's de facto reunification of Karabakh
that followed its victorious 1991-94 war with Azerbaijan.
Armenian officials have implied that the Rambouillet talks failed to
yield a breakthrough because of Aliyev's last-minute rejection of this
peace formula. Indeed, the Azerbaijani president toughened his rhetoric
following the summit, repeatedly saying that he will never accept a
de jure loss of Karabakh. In a May 26 speech in Baku, he stated, "All
the occupied territories of Azerbaijan should be liberated without any
conditions." However, Aliyev's foreign minister, Elmar Mammadyarov,
appeared to have endorsed the referendum option in separate comments
made on the same day. Azerbaijani news agencies quoted Mammadyarov
as saying that Karabakh's status must be determined "not only by
Karabakh's Armenian community but also with the participation in the
process of the Azerbaijani community, after the return of Azerbaijanis
that used to live there."
The remarks may be not only the result of the mediators' latest
regional tour but also of Aliyev's April talks in Washington with
U.S. President George W. Bush. Some Armenian commentators have
suggested that the high-profile White House reception, which boosted
the domestic and international legitimacy of Aliyev's regime, was
part of U.S. efforts to coax Baku into signing up to the Minsk Group
plan. The Turan news agency reported that, in a congratulatory message
on Azerbaijan's Day of the Republic celebrated on May 28, Bush said he
expects Aliyev to do his best to resolve the Karabakh conflict. Aliyev
also received last week a letter from French President Jacques Chirac
who urged him not to miss a "unique opportunity" for Karabakh peace,
according to the Azerbaijani ANS television.
The West does not have to exert the same amount of pressure on
Armenia, whose leadership seems to be largely going along with the
mediators' most recent peace proposals. Local analysts agree that,
by accepting the proposed solution, Kocharian would almost certainly
secure Western support for his reputed plans to hand over power to
his most influential associate, Defense Minister Serge Sarkisian,
in 2008. Kocharian would hardly face strong opposition from
hardline political elements in his government, notably the Armenian
Revolutionary Federation (HHD). The Yerevan daily Aravot quoted on May
27 Armen Rustamian, an HHD leader who heads the Armenian parliament's
foreign relations committed, as saying that the referendum option is
"not unfavorable for Armenia and Karabakh."
Still, the Kocharian-Sarkisian duo would have to reckon with the
position of the Yerkrapah Union, an influential organization uniting
thousands of Armenian veterans of the Karabakh war. Its hardline
chairman, General Manvel Grigorian, and other leaders hold senior
positions in the Armenian military. Grigorian declared on May 8 that
the Armenians "have no lands to surrender." Karabakh's ethnic Armenian
leadership is also less than supportive of the Minsk Group plan,
arguing that the Karabakh Armenians had already voted to secede from
Azerbaijan in 1991. "Even if the Karabakh side agrees to it for some
reason, which I don't consider likely, I doubt that such a referendum
will ever be held," a senior aide to Arkady Ghukasian, president of
the self-proclaimed Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, told RFE/RL on May 22.
The mediators are clearly not of the same opinion. "The two sides are
closer to an agreement than they have been in the past," Fried's deputy
Matthew Bryza told congressional hearings in Washington on May 15. "We
look at these next couple of months as a real window of opportunity."
(Joint statement by Daniel Fried, Grigory Karasin, and Pierre Morel,
May 25; ANS, Aravot, May 27; Turan, Day.az, May 26; RFE/RL Armenia
Report, May 22; Associated Press, May 15)