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RFE/RL Balkan Report - 06/27/2006

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  • RFE/RL Balkan Report - 06/27/2006

    RADIO FREE EUROPE/RADIO LIBERTY, PRAGUE, CZECH REPUBLIC
    _________________________________________ __________________
    RFE/RL Balkan Report
    Vol. 10, No. 6, 27 June 2006

    A Weekly Review of Politics, Media, and Radio Free Europe/Radio
    Liberty Broadcasts in the western Balkans

    ***************************************** *******************
    HEADLINES:
    * MOVING TOWARD ENDGAME IN KOSOVA
    * BLACK HOLES AND WHITE ELEPHANTS IN THE BALKANS
    ****************************************** ******************

    MOVING TOWARD ENDGAME IN KOSOVA. Denmark's Soren Jessen-Petersen
    leaves Kosova as head of the UN civilian administration (UNMIK) at
    the end of June. His successor is likely to be the last person in
    that post before the international community and Kosovar leaders
    agree on the details of how Kosova will move toward independence.
    Jessen-Petersen will probably be remembered by most Kosovar
    Albanians as the best leader of UNMIK during the transition from
    Serbian rule, which effectively ended with the departure of Yugoslav
    President Slobodan Milosevic's forces in June 1999, and the
    declaration of Kosova's independence, the circumstances of which
    are likely to be clear before the end of 2006. The international
    community has made it clear that Belgrade will not have a veto over
    Kosova's future. Most commentators agree that
    Jessen-Petersen's successor will be the last person to head
    UNMIK, which began long ago to hand over some of its functions to
    officials of the elected Kosovar government.
    Unlike some of his predecessors, Jessen-Petersen did his
    homework relating to his job and did not consider himself bound to
    steer a middle course in every controversy that came along. It was
    during his term in office that the UN and the major international
    powers -- whether they said so in public or not -- came to accept
    that "political limbo" could not be continued indefinitely because it
    would compound the fears and frustrations of the 90 percent ethnic
    Albanian majority and possibly lead to more violence like that which
    shook the province in March 2004 (see "RFE/RL Balkan Report,"
    September 10 and December 17, 2004). He also recognized that the only
    way forward was to move toward independence, albeit with strong
    guarantees for the Serbs and other minorities.
    His unambiguous views and his reputed closeness to some
    ethnic Albanian political leaders, such as Ramush Haradinaj of the
    Alliance for the Future of Kosova (AAK), prompted some Serbian
    politicians to call for his resignation, but such tactics only served
    to underscore the weakness of the Serbian position. The local Serbs,
    whose future will ultimately lie with their Albanian neighbors in an
    independent state, by and large boycott Kosova's growing
    institutions of self-government at the behest of Belgrade and thereby
    miss out on the opportunity to put their mark on the new state from
    the beginning.
    The Belgrade politicians, who have expected to face early
    elections for well over a year, are reluctant to say or do anything
    that voters might interpret as showing "weakness" regarding Kosova.
    They thus waste time and energy over Kosova, which some of them
    privately admit is "lost" anyway, that could be put to use in dealing
    with Serbia's real problems, which are crime, poverty,
    corruption, and a democracy deficit. Some observers go one step
    further and suggest that the politicians deliberately draw
    voters' attention to the Kosova issue in order to divert their
    gaze away from those same politicians' poor track record in
    improving the daily lot of ordinary Serbs.
    On June 20, Jessen-Petersen submitted his final report to the
    UN Security Council. He made it clear that the elected Kosovar
    institutions have made good progress toward implementing the
    international community's standards, particularly since Prime
    Minister Agim Ceku was nominated in March. Jessen-Petersen noted that
    many members of the Serbian minority have cause for complaint, but
    added that he hopes that their problems will be dealt with quickly.
    He also stressed that the Serbs should not consider themselves
    victims of deliberate oppression, and he repeated his call for them
    to take part in public life. He warned of the dangers inherent in the
    prolongation of the unclear political status, which, he argued, must
    be settled in keeping with the wishes of the majority while
    respecting the rights of the minority.
    It will be incumbent on the ethnic Albanians to offer the
    Serbs fair treatment under the rule of law. If the Albanians fail to
    do so, they can expect difficulties with the international community.
    But the violent incidents that take place from time to time seem
    sporadic rather than planned, may be rooted in personal or criminal
    rather than in ethnic disputes, and could be, at least in some cases,
    engineered by Serbian extremists in order to maintain tensions and
    discredit the Kosovar government.
    There are, however, few observers who expect many of the
    Serbian refugees and displaced persons to return to their old homes.
    While their numbers are uncertain, figures of around 235,000 often
    surface in the media, but Kosovar officials claim that the real
    number is lower.
    The root of the problem is that the Albanians tend to
    distrust local Serbs in general because of the active role that many
    of them played in bringing Milosevic to power in the second half of
    the 1980s and in keeping him there. Perhaps more important, most
    Albanians believe that Milosevic's repressive campaign of
    1998-99, which culminated in the "ethnic cleansing" of the Albanians
    in the spring of 1999, could not have been carried out without the
    active participation of local Serbs, both as combatants and as
    providers of "human intelligence" about their neighbors. Some German
    Balkan experts have drawn parallels with the Czech attitude at the
    end of World War II toward the Sudeten Germans, whom the Czechs
    regarded as an incorrigible Fifth Column, even though Kosovar
    officials are at pains to stress that local Serbs will enjoy full
    protection of the law.
    The local Serbs, for their part, remain fearful. Violent
    incidents against Serbs have contributed to this tense climate,
    particularly when those killed or injured are the very young or very
    old. It should be recalled that in launching his wars in Croatia and
    in Bosnia-Herzegovina in the early 1990s, Milosevic was able to
    exploit the fears of local Serbs there who refused to accept that
    they might possibly live safely and peacefully as a minority in a
    state in which others constituted the majority. The Serbs of Kosova
    today are no less worried than were the Serbs of Krajina in 1990,
    even if they are not seriously planning to arm themselves or
    expecting military help from Belgrade. Meanwhile, most local Serbian
    politicians have displayed more skill in criticizing and complaining
    that in providing leadership or offering constructive programs.
    As Jessen-Petersen's mandate comes to its end, Kosova
    moves toward a clarification of its final status. Most international
    commentators point out that anything short of independence, however
    qualified, is simply unrealistic. As Montenegro celebrates its newly
    won statehood, and Serbia finds itself in growing international
    disrepute over its failure to arrest and extradite former Bosnian
    Serb commander General Ratko Mladic, Kosova's independence
    probably seems even more realistic that it did at the start of 2006.
    (Patrick Moore)


    BLACK HOLES AND WHITE ELEPHANTS IN THE BALKANS. One truism of
    postcommunist Europe is that all the countries of Eastern Europe and
    the Balkans will sooner or later join the EU and NATO. It seems,
    however, that the countries of the western Balkans might find
    themselves in a "black hole" outside the EU for the foreseeable
    future even if they are surrounded by member states (see "RFE/RL
    Balkan Report," December 9, 2005).
    Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Croatia, Kosova, Macedonia,
    Montenegro, and Serbia face uncertainty in their hopes to join the
    EU. The Brussels-based bloc has a particular attraction for the
    countries of the region for three reasons.
    First, membership means a seat at the table where decisions
    affecting all of Europe are made. The small Balkan states might not
    wield much influence, but it is better to be inside looking out than
    outside looking in, or so the argument has run.
    Second, joining the EU symbolizes the end of the
    continent's division and the inclusion of former communist
    countries -- including war-torn states -- in the "rich man's
    club." For former Yugoslavs, whose passport was once the only one in
    Europe with which one could travel freely to the East or West without
    a visa, it means a return to a normal situation. It also means an end
    to the inconvenience and humiliation of having to go through often
    long procedures for something that was once simple, such as a visit
    to relatives working in Germany. The importance of visa-free travel
    for ordinary people in the western Balkans should not be
    underestimated.
    And third, as poorer members of a wealthy organization, the
    western Balkan states would be able to look forward to a cornucopia
    of subsidies, as well as opportunities for more or less unrestricted
    study and work abroad. In short, even if NATO membership will someday
    provide for these countries' security requirements, joining the
    EU is still regarded in the region as an essential stage in its rite
    of passage into the modern, prosperous, and democratic world.
    For Brussels, integrating the western Balkans has long meant
    that there will be no "black hole" in the middle of the EU --
    especially after Bulgaria and Romania join in 2008 or so -- in which
    organized crime could flourish. More recently, some Western
    governments have come to see EU membership for the western Balkans as
    a way of keeping out of that region unwelcome but well-funded
    political, criminal, or religious influences from Russia or the
    Middle East.
    By offering the prospect of membership, the EU has, moreover,
    a powerful lever to influence precisely the kind of changes -- called
    "reforms" -- that it wants to see implemented. Progress has been slow
    in some countries, but the view from Brussels for years was that it
    is better to have slow progress than to isolate a potentially
    volatile region that is indisputably part of Europe and right on the
    doorstep of several member states.
    But then on May 29, 2005, French voters rejected the proposed
    EU constitution by a clear majority, and Dutch voters did the same by
    an even larger margin three days later. In both cases, objections to
    further enlargement of the EU after the admission of 10 new members
    in 2004 played at least some role in the vote.
    One year after those two votes, the EU is none the clearer as
    to its goals and how to achieve them. In June 2006, a summit took
    place in Vienna, but there was no agreement on any of the key issues,
    including the fate of the constitution. The only consensus seemed to
    be in putting off any possible movement on thorny questions until the
    German presidency in the first half of 2007, or maybe to the French
    presidency in the second half of 2008.
    It was perhaps telling for the newer members -- and those who
    would like to join -- that a joint declaration by the Czech Republic,
    Hungary, Lithuania, Poland, and Slovakia was "slapped down," as the
    "Financial Times" put it on June 17, by Luxembourg, Germany, and
    other, unnamed EU founder states. The five Central European countries
    had called into question what they regard as their second-class
    status within the bloc and demonstrated their willingness to work
    together. Some observers recalled French President Jacques
    Chirac's remark about a 2003 declaration by a similar group of
    countries, which backed the United States over Iraq. The French
    leader said at that time that they had missed an opportunity to "shut
    up."
    Before and during the summit, several leaders of older member
    states made it clear that one cannot speak of enlargement, at least
    beyond Romania and Bulgaria, before the growing EU has decided at
    least on how it will manage its internal affairs. That would mean
    2009 at the very earliest. Consequently, many people in countries
    hoping to join that body began to fear that their chances of
    obtaining membership within a reasonable time frame have become much
    slimmer as a result.
    This was true for Croatia, which has long sought to convince
    itself that its membership on the heels of Romania and Bulgaria was a
    foregone conclusion. Many people in the western Balkans suspected
    that the EU was keeping them at arm's length as a pretext for
    dodging the larger and more controversial question of Turkish
    membership. After all, the reasoning in the Balkans went, had not the
    West Europeans told them for years that integrating such small states
    would not require much money and effort on Brussels' part?
    Meanwhile, antireform forces in the Balkans took heart,
    blocking police and constitutional reform in Bosnia. In Serbia, they
    continue to thwart the arrest and extradition to the Hague-based war
    crimes tribunal of former Bosnian Serb General Ratko Mladic, with the
    result that relations between Belgrade and Brussels are on hold.
    The question then arises: if Brussels is unlikely to offer
    the western Balkans a serious "European perspective" within a clear
    time frame, and if some people in those countries are becoming less
    enamored of a EU that does not seem to want them, might it not be
    time for the people in the western Balkans to reexamine old beliefs
    about the necessary postcommunist rite of passage and look for
    alternatives? Has not the obsession with EU membership become
    something of a white elephant, like the EU-sponsored bridge over the
    Prut River from Romania to Moldova that stood unused for several
    years for want of a road on the Moldovan side?
    How else might the countries of the region modernize their
    economies and expand their markets than with top-down efforts at
    nation building and seemingly endless rules imposed from abroad?
    Might it not be to their advantage to concentrate first on developing
    straightforward free-trade and travel arrangements that would not
    involve compromising what for most of them is newly won sovereignty
    in favor of a distant and unelected bureaucracy?
    Some Euroskeptics have long argued that the EU is cumbersome,
    inflexible, nontransparent, and dominated by Paris and Berlin. Might
    some other parts of Europe now find themselves faced with an
    opportunity to develop alternative ideas to the EU model that are
    simpler, more democratic, and hence more likely to produce clear
    results and win popular support? After all, there is no better
    incentive for learning to think outside the box than being denied
    permission to enter the box. (Patrick Moore)

    NOTABLE QUOTATIONS: "Accusing the European Union for the
    country's own failures is not serious. [EU Enlargement]
    Commissioner [Olli] Rehn considers that it is in the hands of Serbia
    and its leaders to fulfill the conditions and realize the EU
    perspective." -- Krisztina Nagy, Rehn's spokeswoman. Quoted by
    RFE/RL on June 21.
    "We are looking for Kosova to become a normal country." --
    Prime Minister Agim Ceku to U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice
    in Washington on June 19. Quoted by RFE/RL.


    (Compiled by Patrick Moore)
    ******************************************* **************
    Copyright (c) 2006. RFE/RL, Inc. All rights reserved.

    The "RFE/RL Balkan Report" is prepared by Patrick Moore based on
    sources including reporting by RFE/RL's South Slavic and Albanian
    Languages Service. It is distributed once a month.

    Direct content-related comments to Patrick Moore in Prague at
    [email protected] or by phone at (+4202) 2112-3631.
    For information on reprints, see:
    http://www.rferl.org/about/content/request.as p
    Back issues are online at http://www.rferl.org/reports/balkan-report/
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