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  • Will Russian investors replace Turks and Dutchmen in Azerbaijan?

    Regnum, Russia
    March 10 2006

    Will Russian investors replace Turks and Dutchmen in Azerbaijan?
    Azeri press digest


    Politics. Government



    Armenia's non-constructive position in the Karabakh peace process is
    pushing Azerbaijan into policy revision, Azeri President Ilham Aliyev
    says Mar 1, while opening a village of refugees and displaced people
    in Agdam region. He regrets that the long-term peace talks with
    Armenia have given no fruits, to date. There are certain hopes but
    they all are blasted by Armenia's non-constructive position. Aliyev
    notes that he has always been and will be an advocate of cease-fire.
    Azerbaijan's position is that the Karabakh conflict must be resolved
    by peace, and there is a special format for that: the OSCE Minsk
    Group co-chairs are now consulting, and there are certain
    opportunities for finalizing the key principles. But Armenia is again
    non-constructive and disinterested in having the principles
    finalized. `And so, Azerbaijan should think over what to do,' says
    Aliyev. (AzerTag)

    Speaking of the possibility of new war between Azerbaijan and
    Armenia, well-known Azeri political expert Zardusht Alizade says to
    Echo daily that `the talks have been in stalemate for 14 years
    already.' `I am sure that the Azeri army is absolutely unprepared for
    war. We can't start a war given the present corrupt defeatist
    generals. The potential of the peace process is absolutely intact,
    and there is a vast reserve of unused peace opportunities. The
    parties' inaction means their reluctance to solve the problem and to
    get worthy peace for both Armenians and Azeris. In fact, both Aliyev
    and Kocharyan believe that the conflict must be dragged on and the
    people regularly scared. Ilham Aliyev's statement that Azerbaijan's
    12-year Karabakh talks are already a concession and that the country
    must review its position does not mean that Azerbaijan will shortly
    resume war,' Azeri political expert Rasim Musabekov says to Echo.
    `But this means that Azerbaijan will not talk in the format, tone and
    framework insisted on by Armenia - which, in fact, means ceding not
    only Karabakh but also Kalbajar and Lachin. Aliyev makes it clear
    that one should not expect such a capitulation from Azerbaijan. But
    this also means that Azerbaijan will not bear unlimited occupation of
    its territories. To me, this means an unfolding arms race and
    toughening propaganda. As regards the meeting of the co-chairs, they
    will hardly find a way to thrust an unfavorable solution on
    Azerbaijan - they better use the capacities they have. And the US,
    Russia and Europe do have the capacities to bring Kocharyan round and
    to force him to renounce his exorbitant demands. If they actually
    want to use the levers, they will find a way out of the present
    diplomatic deadlock, if not - they will face the prospect of a real
    arms race. And if Azerbaijan will spend its own money, Armenia will
    have to use the money it gets from the Americans, Russians and
    Europeans.'

    Political expert Eldar Ismaylov is sure that there will be no
    military conflict. `The peace process must actually be in a stalemate
    - for the sides appear to have no single ground in common and, I am
    afraid, can no longer continue the talks. Today, they are showing the
    same approaches they showed 10-15 years ago. I don't like the way the
    talks are going. This all is very much like a continued drag on.'
    (Echo)

    Mar 4 the Puls-R sociological service presented the results of its
    monitoring `Azerbaijan in 2005.' It is the third consecutive
    monitoring by the service. The director of the project, political
    expert Rasim Muzabekov says that despite prevailing optimism, Azeris
    are getting increasingly critical of the present situation in their
    country. Their key concerns are the Karabakh conflict, unemployment
    and poverty. Most people don't share the optimism of foreign
    diplomats that there may be a breakthrough in the Karabakh peace
    process in 2006. Despite improved assessment of unemployment and
    poverty, they show growing discontent with corruption, tyranny, poor
    education and health care. The president and the army are the only
    authorities people have steadily trusted in the last three years.
    They also trust media and, partly, religious institutions. More
    people are beginning to advocate drastic government reforms. Many
    (27.7%) are still for integrating with the EU, while NATO
    sympathizers have grown scarce - from 12.4% in 2004 to 7% in 2005.
    The biggest friend is Turkey, and also Russia and Iran, instead of
    the US in 2004. But the selfsame Iran and Russia are also the 2nd and
    the 3rd biggest enemies. The top enemy is steadily Armenia. It is
    noteworthy that the number of those advocating Islamic values has
    over redoubled - from 6.2% to 14.5%. (Echo)

    Head of OSCE Office in Baku Maurizio Pavesi states the necessity of
    electoral reforms in Azerbaijan. In a Mar 1 seminar `Towards
    Transparency in Politics: a Review of Electoral System and Funding of
    Political Parties in Azerbaijan' Pavesi says: `The OSCE/ODIHR final
    report on the November 2005 parliamentary elections showed that the
    electoral system in Azerbaijan needs some changes in order to match
    European standards.' Pavesi says that his office has got nothing from
    its post-electoral meetings with the Azeri government and opposition
    and will not continue them. He says that from now on his office will
    help the local authorities in technical problems only, but the
    initiative should come from political parties themselves. (Zerkalo)

    The US gives high attention to the protection of Azerbaijan's sea
    borders and systematically aids the country's navy, US Ambassador to
    Azerbaijan Reno Harnish says Mar 1. He says that the bigger part of
    the aid is given to sea border guards, with the navy getting mostly
    technical assistance: `we are presently helping them to repair
    several worn-out ships.' Harnish notes that the US will further
    continue to help Azerbaijan to protect its sea borders. (Azeri Press)


    Opposition

    The Azeri opposition continues disintegrating as its key forces are
    brawling harder - Musavat party, who has decided to work in the
    parliament, and Democratic Party, whose leader is Rasul Guliyev, ex
    parliamentary speaker and US resident since 1996.

    In an interview to Azeri-Press Guliyev says that after the
    parliamentary elections, he no longer regards Musavat as an
    opposition party. Asked what he thinks about Musavat's decision to
    work in the parliament, Guliev says: `This is a painful stab in the
    back for democracy hopes in Azerbaijan. I regret that the party whose
    70%-80% are true democrats and intellectuals has failed to prevent an
    incompetent decision by 2-3 ambitious and adventurous leaders. How
    then can it fight the regime?' They let people down during the
    presidential race 2003 - they crushed their hopes and have not even
    begged their pardon for being unable to protect their votes for Isa
    Gambar (Musavat party leader - REGNUM). Now too, like in Apr 1920,
    they prefer defeat. Then too Musavat sought cooperation with the
    Bolsheviks, but the Bolsheviks refused. The same is now: Musavat
    wants to cooperate with the authorities, but the authorities will
    also refuse... Musavat is not longer an opposition to me. They are just
    4-5 MPs that think they are a party. Once again I express my regret
    that the party's worthy members have allowed such a situation."

    Azerbaijan-Armenia. Karabakh problem

    In a talk with Azeri journalists US Ambassador to Azerbaijan Reno
    Harnish says that the resolution of the Karabakh conflict is not far
    off. He hopes that the US will help the conflicting parties to solve
    the problem. He quotes OSCE MG US co-chair Steven Mann as calling
    2006 the year of the conflict's resolution. Neither Armenia nor
    Azerbaijan have elections this year, and their politicians will have
    enough time to solve complex problems. Harnish notes that if the
    conflict is not resolved in 2006, there are other scenarios - one of
    them being war. But war will be a real tragedy for the Caucasus. And
    so, Harnish urges all politicians, foreign ministers and presidents
    to use the chance to find a way out. (Azeri Press)

    The statement that Nagorno Karabakh may join Armenia is only adding
    to the tensions in the region and is giving it nothing good, US
    Ambassador to Azerbaijan Reno Harnish says Mar 3 in comment on the
    last statement by Armenian President Robert Kocharyan. He says that
    the US wants the negotiating process to continue and encourages the
    presidents and the FMs to continue their peace dialogue. (Echo)

    `Lately, a number of European countries have shown unawareness and,
    sometimes, even bias concerning some issues,' says the head of the
    department of foreign relations of the Azeri president's executive
    staff Novruz Mamedov, commenting on the European Parliament's
    decision to acknowledge the fact of destruction of Armenian
    cemeteries in Julfa region of Nakhchivan AR. He says that the
    European MPs should have studied the region better. He notes that
    almost totally destroyed are over 1,000 Azeri historical and cultural
    monuments registered by UNESCO and located in the territories
    `occupied' by Armenians. Mamedov is displeased with Europe's
    partiality on some issues - from the Mohammed cartoons to the Julfa
    cemeteries. He notes that the West's wrong position in the world
    processes may lead it to a tragedy. One should show one's position
    through fair decisions only. (New Time)

    Iran

    Aljazeera.Net gives an article by former UN inspector in Iraq Scott
    Ritter. Ritter urges the world not to believe the Bush administration
    when it speaks of `diplomacy' and a desire for a `peaceful'
    resolution to the Iranian question.

    In his article `The US War with Iran has Already Begun' Ritter says
    that there are several actions ongoing against Iran.

    To the north, in neighboring Azerbaijan, the US military is preparing
    a base of operations for a massive military presence that will
    foretell a major land-based campaign designed to capture Tehran.




    Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld's interest in Azerbaijan may
    have escaped the blinkered Western media, but Russia and the Caucasus
    nations understand only too well that the die has been cast regarding
    Azerbaijan's role in the upcoming war with Iran.




    The ethnic links between the Azeri of northern Iran and Azerbaijan
    were long exploited by the Soviet Union during the Cold War, and this
    vehicle for internal manipulation has been seized upon by CIA
    paramilitary operatives and US Special Operations units who are
    training with Azerbaijan forces to form special units capable of
    operating inside Iran for the purpose of intelligence gathering,
    direct action, and mobilizing indigenous opposition to the Mullahs in
    Tehran.




    But this is only one use the US has planned for Azerbaijan. American
    military aircraft, operating from forward bases in Azerbaijan, will
    have a much shorter distance to fly when striking targets in and
    around Tehran.




    A much shorter route to Tehran now exists - the coastal highway
    running along the Caspian Sea from Azerbaijan to Tehran.




    US military planners have already begun war games calling for the
    deployment of multi-divisional forces into Azerbaijan.




    Logistical planning is well advanced concerning the basing of US air
    and ground power in Azerbaijan.



    Commenting on the article to Echo, well-known Azeri political expert
    Zardusht Alizade says: `I think that however bad at rule, the Azeri
    leaders are still quite good at self-preservation. Those people will
    never allow to use themselves in a game against Iran, because this
    bodes big and simply unpredictable consequences.'

    Business-scandal

    The Azeri authorities have given start to expelling Turkish Barmek,
    an LTD enjoying monopoly in electricity supply in Baku and some
    regions. `If Barmek fails to clear its faults by our deadline, we may
    stop our contract with them,' Azeri Economic Development Minister
    Haydar Babayev says Mar 2. He says that Barmek is defaulting on its
    investment commitments: `Any foreign company operating in Azerbaijan
    should respect the law and the contract.' Azeri President Ilham
    Aliyev has also criticized Barmek in a recent conference. (525th
    Daily)

    Mar 2 Barmek President Huseyn Arabul gave a press-conference to
    express his attitude towards Aliyev's criticism. In a conference
    chaired by Aliyev President of AzerEnergy Etibar Pirverdiyev said
    that Barmek was defaulting on its contractual commitments, was
    under-investing in its network and so on. Aliyev instructed relevant
    bodies to inquire into Barmek's activities. Arabul says that he has
    received many presidential instructions and has no objections. Arabul
    says that the conference misinformed Aliyev of the Barmek's
    activities. Arabul is ready to regularly report to Aliyev on his
    company's activities. He has tried to meet with Aliyev, but failed as
    he was very busy. At the same time, Arabul notes that, if need be, he
    will leave Azerbaijan.

    Mar 3 the Azeri Public Prosecutor's Office brought a criminal action
    against Barmek President Huseyn Arabul. The action followed an
    inspection of the company's activities by the anti-corruption
    department, experts from the ministries of finances, taxes, economic
    development, industry and energy and the audit chamber. Oct 13 2001
    the Azeri Economic Development Ministry agreed with Turkish Barmek
    Holding A.S. to give it the right to manage Bakuelectricshebeke for
    25 years. The ministry undertook the obligations of the Azeri side.
    Barmek pledged to invest a total of $51 mln in 5 years, but has spent
    almost nothing, so far.

    The company is also accused of non-compliance with several points of
    its 25-year contract. It has under-invested, embezzled state
    property, got involved in financial machinations. The Public
    Prosecutor's Office reports complicity by the former economic
    development minister, now political detainee Farhad Aliyev and Barmek
    Azerbaijan President Huseyn Arabul. Particularly, Aliyev is reported
    to pay big ministerial money to some British company for something it
    did not do. (AzerTag)

    Meanwhile, Echo reports that the contract with Barmek will shortly be
    annulled, and one of the most probable substitutes is RAO UES Russia.
    Some sources say that this was discussed during recent visits by
    Russians to Baku. One source is Arabul himself, who says that RAO UES
    is showing interest in the Baku electric networks - something RAO
    does not even try to hide in its interview to Echo.

    Quite recently AzerEnergy President Etibar Pirverdiyev said that
    Barmek was failing to meet its contractual obligations and President
    Aliyev ordered an inspection in the company. As a result, the
    contract may be annulled and the Azeri side will have to pay off all
    Barmek's investments in the country. Barmek may stop its activities
    in Azerbaijan and leave vacant the grids in Baku, Sumqayit and some
    other northern regions. The general rumor is that Barmek will be
    replaced by a big energy company by some top official, while experts
    say that coming instead will be some foreign - probably Russian -
    company.

    Echo reports President of the Association of Engineers and Energy
    Experts of Azerbaijan Rasul Suleymanov to say that, in fact, it was
    German Siemens who first won the right to manage the electric
    networks in Baku, Sumqayit and other northern regions. `But for some
    objective reasons, that company refused and gave its rights to the
    second company in the tender - Barmek. But neither Bayva nor Barmek
    have managed to ensure normal payment collection rate.'

    It should be noted that almost all Farhad Aliyev-time contracts are
    being criticized and annulled. Curtailing activities is Dutch Fondel
    Metal, who has a 25-year contract to manage Azerbaijan's aluminum
    complex. The Dutch may be replaced by Russians - RUSAL - even though
    the new economic development minister Haydar Babayev is sure that the
    situation with Fondel has nothing to do with RUSAL's wish to start up
    in Azerbaijan, says Echo.
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