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Armenian Reporter - 11/04/2006

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  • Armenian Reporter - 11/04/2006

    ARMENIAN REPORTER
    PO Box 129
    Paramus, New Jersey 07652
    Tel: 1-201-226-1995
    Fax: 1-201-226-1660
    Web: http://www.armenianreporteronline.com
    Email: [email protected]

    November 4, 2006

    1. Armenia will invite long-term election observers, President
    Kocharian confirms

    2. Former Pentagon official: Azerbaijan's oil revenue will not make a
    military difference

    3. President Kocharian confirms details of Russia-Armenia pipeline deal

    4. Vincent Lima is the new editor of the "Armenian Reporter"

    5. Editorial: Vote

    ******************************************** *******************************

    1. Armenia will invite long-term election observers, President
    Kocharian confirms

    YEREVAN--President Robert Kocharian confirmed on October 27 that
    Armenia would invite Western monitors to observe the 2007 National
    Assembly elections, which are expected to be held in May. The
    invitation would include "both long-term and short-term international
    monitoring missions," the president told a meeting of the ambassadors
    of European Union countries in Yerevan.

    Long-term monitors generally arrive up to 100 days before an election
    to meet with local and national officials and observe electoral
    campaigns. The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe
    (OSCE), which observes elections through its Warsaw-based Office for
    Democratic Institutions and Human Rights, sends observers six to eight
    weeks before election day.

    According to National Assembly chairperson Tigran Torosian,
    observation missions have not yet been invited because no date has
    been set for the elections.

    An elections expert at one of the international organizations in
    Yerevan told the Armenian Reporter that Armenia does not need to issue
    formal invitations before January. Timing is more critical in the
    reform of the electoral code, which is now underway. Amendments to the
    law on elections are likely to be signed into law in January, which
    will put training and implementation on a very tight schedule, the
    expert noted.

    ****************************************** *****************************

    2. Former Pentagon official: Azerbaijan's oil revenue will not make
    military difference

    by Emil Sanamyan; special to the "Armenian Reporter"

    WASHINGTON, D.C.--"Outlines of a settlement in Nagorno Karabakh are
    very clear.... The Armenians get Karabakh and Lachin corridor and the
    Azeris get the surrounding territories."

    E. Wayne Merry, a former State and Defense Department official who
    dealt with the conflict, said this in a lecture on Wednesday, October
    25, 2006, titled "Diplomacy and War in Karabakh: An Unofficial
    American Perspective," hosted by the Johns Hopkins University's
    Central Asia Caucasus Institute.

    Speaking in an unofficial capacity, Mr. Merry said that in the case of
    Karabakh it makes no sense for the U.S. to cling to Soviet-era
    administrative borders drawn up by Soviet dictator Josef Stalin.

    In the end, Mr. Merry stressed, "The solution is to recognize reality
    and redraw the borders."

    In 1991, Nagorno-Karabakh used existing laws and international norms
    to secede from Soviet Azerbaijan following years of brutal
    anti-Armenian pogroms and Soviet government-enforced crackdowns and
    violence against the population of Karabakh. Azerbaijan subsequently
    launched a full-scale war, trying to expel Karabakh's Armenian
    population. The war eventually resulted in Azerbaijan's defeat and a
    cease-fire agreement in May 1994. While Armenian-Azerbaijani talks
    have continued since then, Azerbaijan's government has grown
    increasingly bellicose, demanding control over Armenian-populated
    Karabakh and threatening renewed use of force.

    But the Pentagon's former Caucasus expert argued that Azerbaijan's
    growing oil revenue would not give it sufficient advantage to resolve
    the issue militarily. Mr. Merry said there were five main reasons for
    this: geography, firepower, reserves, military art, and strategic
    depth.

    According to Mr. Merry, Armenians have a clear geographic advantage,
    with their forces dug in on higher ground along most of the Line of
    Contact. This in turn creates an opportunity for a more effective use
    of firepower--even if both sides have similar military hardware.
    Armenians can also count on ample reserves of both combat veterans and
    ammunition.

    "To put it bluntly, Azerbaijan would run out of young men before
    Armenians run out of ammunition," Mr. Merry explained.

    Further, the Armenian side has a proven ability to conduct military
    operations. "Azerbaijan has armed forces, Armenia has a military" Mr.
    Merry noted. In terms of strategic depth, only Turkey is likely to
    support Azerbaijan. The four other major players, including Russia,
    Iran, United States, and the Europeans, have no interest in imposing
    an Azerbaijani solution on Armenians.

    According to Mr. Merry, Azerbaijan would need to overcome all of these
    obstacles to claim victory. "I doubt they could overcome any.... If
    Azerbaijan resumes armed conflict, it will be defeated," Mr. Merry
    warned. "People [in Azerbaijan] who say 'let's go to war because we
    won't be any worse off' are very dangerous people, because wars always
    make things worse--often unpredictably and catastrophically worse."

    Mr. Merry argued that there are three major forces in international
    affairs: demography in the long term, economics in the middle term,
    and war in the short term. "Diplomacy is not a force, it is a
    mechanism," he said. "This is a mechanism for ratifying, not reversing
    the battlefield." But, Mr. Merry said, most of the diplomatic effort
    around the Karabakh conflict focused on management of the conflict
    rather than resolving it. The major reason for this is that a
    continued status quo is politically an easier option for each side,
    while a solution would require difficult compromises.

    Mr. Merry's remarks were welcomed by two former U.S. ambassadors to
    Armenia in the audience. Retired ambassador Harry Gilmore (1993-95)
    noted that a "great opportunity" was missed in April 2001, when
    Armenian and Azerbaijani presidents met under the mediation of the
    U.S. secretary of state at the time, Colin Powell, in Key West, Fla.
    According to credible reports, a deal discussed at the time also
    entailed Karabakh's formal unification with Armenia.

    Ambassador John Evans (2004-06), speaking in a private capacity, noted
    that a breakthrough in the Karabakh peace process remains unlikely.
    Ambassador Evans noted in a February 2005 lecture that placing
    Karabakh within Azerbaijan, as the latter demands, would be "a
    disastrous step."

    During his 26-year career with the U.S. Foreign Service, Mr. Merry
    dealt with the Karabakh conflict while serving as a political officer
    at the U.S. Embassy in Russia (1991-94), during a tour with the
    Department of Defense as its regional director for Russia, Ukraine,
    and Eurasia (1995-97) and as senior adviser to the U.S. Commission on
    Security and Cooperation in Europe (1997-98). Merry is currently a
    senior associate at the American Foreign Policy Council, a D.C. think
    tank.

    ************************************* **************************************

    3. President Kocharian confirms details of Russia-Armenia pipeline deal

    YEREVAN (Combined sources)--President Robert Kocharian confirmed on
    Monday, October 30, 2006, that Russia's state-run Gazprom monopoly
    would gain a controlling stake in Armenia's national gas distribution
    company that will likely own the incoming gas pipeline from Iran.

    Mr. Kocharian gave the information as he met with Russian president
    Vladimir Putin in the Kremlin. "I would like to immediately inform you
    that all of our serious agreements on energy projects with Gazprom are
    entering the implementation phase," he said in remarks posted on the
    Kremlin's website. "Just a few days ago, they were finally approved by
    the Gazprom board."

    On the previous Friday, Gazprom's board had approved and announced the
    issuance of additional shares in the ArmRosGazprom (ARG) operator,
    saying that it will buy all of them and thereby raise its ARG stake
    from 45 percent to 58 percent. Karen Karapetian, director general of
    the ARG network, said Tuesday that Gazprom will pay $118.8 million to
    increase its shares.

    The Armenian government has until now owned another 45 percent of ARG,
    with the remaining 10 percent belonging to ITERA, a private Russian
    gas exporter.

    The pipeline deal was among the economic issues on the agenda of Mr.
    Kocharian's talks this week with Mr. Putin. The latter described as
    "shameful" the fact that Russia is only the third largest foreign
    investor in Armenia. "I say 'shameful' because it is odd that Russia
    does not occupy the first place in terms of investments in the economy
    of its strategic partner," Mr. Putin said.

    ******************************************* ********************************

    4. Vincent Lima is the new editor of the "Armenian Reporter"; Aris
    Sevag steps down

    Minneapolis, Minn.--Vincent Lima has been appointed the editor of the
    "Armenian Reporter," CS Media Enterprises, LLC, the newspaper's
    publisher, announced. Aris Sevag stepped down last week, after 15
    years as the paper's managing editor.

    Mr. Lima joined the senior management of CS Media in March. He has
    worked closely in that capacity with Mr. Sevag and Sylva Boghossian,
    publisher of the "Armenian Reporter."

    "Vincent brings a wide range of skills and experience, as well as
    energy and excellent judgment to the 'Reporter,'" said John Waters,
    vice president of CS Media. "He is charged now with making the
    'Reporter' a resource that can inform, entertain, and inspire ever
    more readers."

    Mr. Lima has long had a high profile in the Armenian-American
    community as an editor and public intellectual. He edited the
    scholarly journal "Armenian Review" from 1989 to 1996. He then started
    "Armenian Forum: A Journal of Contemporary Affairs" with his colleague
    Ara Sarafian. He served also as director of the Gomidas Institute,
    which has published dozens of books in the last few years.

    "As editor, I hope to build on the strengths of the 'Armenian
    Reporter,'" said Mr. Lima. "One of these strengths is our coverage of
    Armenian-American community affairs and advocacy. Next week, we will
    start introducing new talent that is joining us to bring greater depth
    to this coverage."

    Asking readers to be vocal about their opinions, Mr. Lima said, "We
    have ambitious plans for the newspaper, both in print and online. We
    will roll out many innovations over the weeks, months, and years to
    come. As we do so, we will be listening closely to what our readers
    have to say."

    "The 'new' 'Armenian Reporter' is going to be true to its roots and
    loyal to our faithful readers," said Sylva Boghossian, publisher of
    the "Armenian Reporter." "But we are also reaching out to a new
    generation of readers. I am looking forward to working closely with
    Vincent as we make this happen together. I also want to take this
    opportunity to wish Aris the best at his new job. I will miss the
    close collaboration we have had over the years, and credit him with
    helping make the 'Armenian Reporter' such a vital part of our
    community."

    Before joining CS Media, Mr. Lima worked in the testing industry,
    where he developed content for high-stakes tests. For the American
    Institute of Certified Public Accountants, he worked on innovative
    products (such as auditing simulations) for the Uniform CPA
    Examination; prior to that he wrote and reviewed questions for the
    Analytical sections of the GRE and the Critical Reasoning sections of
    the GMAT.

    Mr. Lima is a graduate of the New School for Social Research in New
    York City. He did graduate work there under Eric J. Hobsbawm; he
    continued his graduate studies in history at the University of
    Michigan, Ann Arbor, under Ronald Grigor Suny and Juan Cole. He has
    taught at the University of Michigan and Tufts University. He recently
    moved to Yerevan with his partner Martha Boudakian and their two
    daughters.

    ********************************** *****************************************

    5. Editorial: Vote

    Day in and day out, American citizens of Armenian descent reach out to
    their elected representatives by letter, by e-mail, by phone, and
    through their lobbying and advocacy organizations. We give generously
    to the campaigns of our friends.

    That is every day. But November 7, Election Day, is the moment of truth.

    Will we show up at the polls and elect the candidates who best
    represent our values and our interests? Will we display the collective
    might that our lobbying efforts claim on our behalf? We believe so.

    We urge our readers to vote on Election Day.

    * * *

    Voters in Armenia, meanwhile, will get to exercise their right to vote
    in just over six months.

    We welcome President Kocharian's announcement this week confirming
    that Armenia will invite international monitors to observe the
    elections. An important element of the announcement was that the
    invitations would encompass long-term observers. These observers will
    follow the campaign season closely. Their presence will help
    discourage violations and ensure that voters are aware of all their
    options on Election Day.

    Indeed, while our focus today is on Election Day, we must not lose
    sight of the ongoing nature of democratic participation. There is no
    question that Armenia's elections must be free and fair. But the
    hallmark of a true democracy is a culture of vigorous and thoughtful
    debate on the issues that matter to the country and its people.

    Still, it is on Election Day that the people make their choices. And
    it is then that they gain--or lose--faith that their voice counts.

    ***************************************** **********************************
    Direct your inquiries to [email protected]
    (c) 2006 CS Media Enterprises LLC. All Rights Reserved
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