Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Aliyev's visit to Moscow: Tough talks over energy issues

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Aliyev's visit to Moscow: Tough talks over energy issues

    EurasiaNet, NY
    Nov 11 2006


    AZERBAIJANI PRESIDENT'S VISIT TO MOSCOW: TOUGH TALKS OVER THE ENERGY
    ISSUES
    Rovshan Ismayilov 11/10/06



    Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev and his Russian counterpart
    Vladimir Putin seem to have engaged in some hard bargaining over
    energy and security issues when the two met in the Kremlin on
    November 9. While Russia has used its energy assets as tool of
    coercion against many former Soviet states, Azerbaijan's own energy
    abundance and export capability enables it to engage Russia on more
    of a parity basis.

    Aliyev arrived in Moscow for talks with Putin after visiting
    Brussels, where the Azerbaijani leader signed a memorandum on energy
    cooperation with the European Union, as well as lobbied EU officials
    for support on the Nagorno-Karabakh peace talks. [For background see
    the Eurasia Insight archive]. He also met with top officials of the
    North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Azerbaijan's ability to act as an
    independent energy player in Europe is a source of vexation for
    Russian officials, who have pursued policies aimed at achieving
    Moscow's lasting dominance as an EU energy supplier. [For background
    see the Eurasia Insight archive].

    Azerbaijani and Russian officials remained tight-lipped on the
    specifics of the two presidents' discussions. All indicators,
    however, suggested that Aliyev and Putin jousted over energy and
    strategic issues. Publicly, Putin lauded the improvement in
    Azerbaijani-EU energy ties. Behind closed doors, Azerbaijani experts
    believe the Russian president spared no effort in trying to bind Baku
    closer to Russia, and thus get Azerbaijan to moderate energy
    cooperation with the EU and strategic ties with the United States and
    NATO. Another factor in the discussions likely was Azerbaijan's own
    purchase of Russian natural gas. The price and amount of Russian gas
    to be imported by Azerbaijan in 2007 remains up in the air. [For
    background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

    Azerbaijan has long pursued policies that have sought to concurrently
    strengthen ties with the United States, EU and Russia. Politically,
    Aliyev favors tight control of the democratization process, generally
    following Putin's "managed democracy" model, in which the state keeps
    a lid on dissent and the non-governmental sector. In the energy and
    security spheres, meanwhile, Azerbaijan leans toward the West.

    Aliyev is one of the few regional leaders to have good working
    relationships with both Putin and US President George W. Bush. [For
    background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

    But balancing US and Russian interests is becoming increasingly
    difficult for Azerbaijani leaders as they pursue their top policy
    priorities, namely energy exports and a Karabakh settlement that
    allows Baku to retain control of the territory.

    According to a November 10 analytical report published by Kommersant,
    Aliyev indicated to Putin that Baku would take Russia's interests
    into account in Azerbaijani-EU energy matters. "We work together with
    you, don't we; that's just what I told them [EU officials],"
    Kommersant quoted Aliyev as telling Putin, citing a Russian official
    source. At the same time, Aliyev reportedly rebuffed Putin's efforts
    to get Azerbaijan to go along with Russia's economic blockade of
    Georgia. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. The
    Russian energy giant Gazprom recently announced a drastic price
    increase for its gas exports to Georgia, from $110 per thousand cubic
    meters (tcm) to $230 tcm, a hike that Georgian officials have
    denounced as politically motivated. [For background see the Eurasia
    Insight archive].

    Azerbaijan's own vast reserves of oil and gas enable Aliyev to say
    "no" to Moscow. It also gives Baku the ability to pursue an
    independent security course. This independence has Russian officials
    increasingly worried. At present, Azerbaijan is engaging in a rapid
    military buildup, and officials in Moscow worry that this defense
    spending binge could be a harbinger of a rapid Azerbaijani move
    toward NATO integration. The Kommersant analysis also suggested the
    buildup could be a precursor to the establishment of an American
    military base in Azerbaijan, although Azerbaijani officials have
    repeatedly dismissed the possibility.

    Lacking an energy trump card to play against Azerbaijan, Putin has
    few levers at his disposal to influence Azerbaijani decision-making.
    During their November 9 meeting, Putin reportedly offered significant
    economic investment and lucrative arms deals, but neither offer
    seemed appealing from the standpoint of enhancing Azerbaijan's
    sovereignty.

    While Russia may have little that it can offer Baku, distrust of the
    United States and other Western countries seems to be on the rise not
    only within Azerbaijani governing circles, but on the grass-roots
    level as well. Political analyst Arif Yunusov, in an interview with
    the Russian news agency Regnum, said "disappointment with US policy"
    was widespread in Azerbaijan, explaining that resentment was growing
    over what he characterized as a "hypocritical" Bush administration
    policy toward Baku.

    "They [Bush administration officials] keep saying that the only thing
    they are thinking about is to build democracy in Azerbaijan, but, in
    fact, the only thing they are thinking about is how to get our oil
    and how to use our territory against Muslims," Yunusov said. [For
    background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

    Many Azerbaijanis are frustrated by the lack of follow-up on the US
    democratization rhetoric, while officials in Baku continue to worry
    about the possibility of Azerbaijani being caught in the middle of a
    possible US-Iran conflict.

    After his visits to Brussels and Moscow, Aliyev will likely have
    trouble making choices that keep all parties - the United States, the
    EU, Russia, as well as Georgia - happy. Experts in Baku are reluctant
    to predict the country's future geopolitical course. "We should
    follow the situation for the coming few month before we can make
    clear conclusions. We have to follow Azerbaijan's position in the
    `Georgia issue,' and the pace of country's NATO integration," said
    Zafar Guliyev, a political analyst for the Turan analytical group.


    Editor's Note: Rovshan Ismayilov is a freelance reporter based in
    Baku.
Working...
X