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PRESIDENT ILHAM ALIYEV OF AZERBAIJAN VISITS MOSCOW
Source: RBC Daily, November 9, 2006
Agency WPS
The Russian Business Monitor (Russia)
November 13, 2006 Monday
President Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan started a working visit to Moscow
on Noember 8, arriving there from Brussels.
In contrast to Aliyev's Brussels visit, his Moscow visit has been
downplayed in Azerbaijan - to avoid stirring up the pro-Western
opposition. Announcements in Russia have also been very brief. But
everyone knows the issues of concern to both sides: Baku is trying
to win Moscow's support on Nagorno-Karabakh, while Moscow is trying
to prevent Azerbaijan from joining NATO.
Moscow does not have much economic leverage with Azerbaijan. All
Azeri oil is exported via the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline,
bypassing Russia; gas deliveries account for the lion's share
of trade turnover, but even this source of dependence will be
eliminated once the Shah-Deniz field starts production. However,
given its influence on Armenia, Russia is still an important mediator
in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. This mediation is also vital for
Azerbaijan's biggest investor - the United States. Shareholders in
the BTC pipeline and the new Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum pipeline require
transit security. Moscow cannot side with Azerbaijan, at the risk
of losing Armenia - a member of the CIS Collective Security Treaty
Organization and Russia's sole ally in the Trans-Caucasus.
Foreign Ministry spokesman Mikhail Kamynin said on November 7 that
Russia is prepared to act as a conflict regulation guarantor if Baku
and Yerevan can reach a compromise themselves. But this is unlikely:
Armenian Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanian has already made it clear
that his meeting with his Azeri counterpart on November 14 in Brussels
will not be successful. Oskanian also said recently that if "Russia
recognizes one or more of the unrecognized republics, the Armenian
Foreign Ministry will make an appropriate statement." It is a sticky
situation.
In the meantime, Western countries are trying to draw Azerbaijan
further into their orbit. Citing diplomatic sources, the "Zerkalo"
newspaper (Baku) reports that "Azerbaijan is expected to make an
official application for NATO membership within days." However,
judging by Azeri Foreign Minister Elmar Mamediarov's statement about
Russia's "important role" in the region, Baku is not prepared to take
that step as yet. Sergei Markedonov from the Political and Military
Analysis Institute says: "Azerbaijan understands that joining NATO
would exacerbate tension in relations with Russia, and draw Azerbaijan
into the Iran campaign. So Aliyev has to keep maneuvering."
All the same, according to Azeri political analyst Zafar Guliyev,
Baku's policies could tilt towards the West in the near future. And the
invitation for Aliyev to visit Moscow after Brussels may be regarded
as the Kremlin's attempt to prevent such developments.
Source: RBC Daily, November 9, 2006
Agency WPS
The Russian Business Monitor (Russia)
November 13, 2006 Monday
President Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan started a working visit to Moscow
on Noember 8, arriving there from Brussels.
In contrast to Aliyev's Brussels visit, his Moscow visit has been
downplayed in Azerbaijan - to avoid stirring up the pro-Western
opposition. Announcements in Russia have also been very brief. But
everyone knows the issues of concern to both sides: Baku is trying
to win Moscow's support on Nagorno-Karabakh, while Moscow is trying
to prevent Azerbaijan from joining NATO.
Moscow does not have much economic leverage with Azerbaijan. All
Azeri oil is exported via the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline,
bypassing Russia; gas deliveries account for the lion's share
of trade turnover, but even this source of dependence will be
eliminated once the Shah-Deniz field starts production. However,
given its influence on Armenia, Russia is still an important mediator
in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. This mediation is also vital for
Azerbaijan's biggest investor - the United States. Shareholders in
the BTC pipeline and the new Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum pipeline require
transit security. Moscow cannot side with Azerbaijan, at the risk
of losing Armenia - a member of the CIS Collective Security Treaty
Organization and Russia's sole ally in the Trans-Caucasus.
Foreign Ministry spokesman Mikhail Kamynin said on November 7 that
Russia is prepared to act as a conflict regulation guarantor if Baku
and Yerevan can reach a compromise themselves. But this is unlikely:
Armenian Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanian has already made it clear
that his meeting with his Azeri counterpart on November 14 in Brussels
will not be successful. Oskanian also said recently that if "Russia
recognizes one or more of the unrecognized republics, the Armenian
Foreign Ministry will make an appropriate statement." It is a sticky
situation.
In the meantime, Western countries are trying to draw Azerbaijan
further into their orbit. Citing diplomatic sources, the "Zerkalo"
newspaper (Baku) reports that "Azerbaijan is expected to make an
official application for NATO membership within days." However,
judging by Azeri Foreign Minister Elmar Mamediarov's statement about
Russia's "important role" in the region, Baku is not prepared to take
that step as yet. Sergei Markedonov from the Political and Military
Analysis Institute says: "Azerbaijan understands that joining NATO
would exacerbate tension in relations with Russia, and draw Azerbaijan
into the Iran campaign. So Aliyev has to keep maneuvering."
All the same, according to Azeri political analyst Zafar Guliyev,
Baku's policies could tilt towards the West in the near future. And the
invitation for Aliyev to visit Moscow after Brussels may be regarded
as the Kremlin's attempt to prevent such developments.