Tweet
PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE REMAINS URGENT PROBLEM IN NAGORNO KARABAKH
Lragir, Armenia
Nov 13 2006
Although many people connected the problem of the NKR presidential
election with the adoption of the draft constitution by the parliament,
the meeting of parliament on November 1 did not bring about anything
important. The members of parliament approved the draft constitution,
which will be put to popular voting. The rumors about the relation
between the decision of the parliament and the upcoming presidential
election have diminished. The country is going to hold a referendum and
find out the attitude of the citizens of NKR towards the constitution.
It is possible that more people have realized that one decision or
another of President Arkady Ghukasyan on his further political career
has little relation to the Constitution. Moreover, in his October
11 statement President Ghukasyan explained his decision by other
circumstances than the adoption.
Certainly, the general political problems also have importance, both
home and international. Despite deep doubts about the statement of
President Ghukasyan (most people detect symptoms of preparations for
a third term in the actions of his team), some aides are asserting the
president's unlikelihood to run a third term. Moreover, the discussion
about the new president is said to be underway among his aides.
One way or another, both the government and the society are facing the
necessity to discuss the problem of electing a new president of NKR. In
this connection, Nagorno Karabakh is specific. The usual practice of
waiting until the next president is named will not work here. First,
NKR is a small country and everyone knows in person the figures around
the president. And in this connection, President Ghukasyan cannot be
proud at all. He has been heard speak about the difficulty of naming
the next president.
Of course, this does not mean that there are no candidates
in Karabakh. Most probably, there are no candidates around the
president. The names of the Secretary of State Security Bako Sahakyan
and Speaker Ashot Ghulyan mentioned recently hardly mean anything to
the society. And if the public is not delighted about these persons
who have a negative image, other high-ranking officials around the
president, as the results of polls suggest, are not perceived by the
society as new leaders of NKR.
This circumstance shows that the figures, who are not seen beside
President Ghukasyan, will most probably have a greater chance to
be named. These are not only figures from the opposition but also
government officials, who belong to the so-called reformist branch
of the government. This state of things appears natural, considering
another specific feature of the political life in NKR.
Here there is no gap between the government system and the society
unlike other post-Soviet states. In other words, the visible opposition
of forces is between the top officials and pro-government members of
parliament on one side and the society with the majority of public
officials on the other. This circumstance undoubtedly acquires a
political meaning. The example was the election of the mayor of
Stepanakert in 2004 when the candidate of the opposition Edward
Aghabekyan was supported by not only the society but also most
public officials, which helped the candidate of the opposition win
the election.
It is not accidental that presently the attention of the society
focuses on the deputy minister of foreign affairs Masis Mayilyan. The
loyalty of even the radical opposition and the mass media to this
figure is already evident. If the events develop similarly, it is
possible that naming a new president of Nagorno Karabakh will be
based on a scheme of an expansive consensus among the society of NKR.
This is an interesting phenomenon against the background of the
underdeveloped party systems of such states like NKR, and the social
and economic reality typical of the rule of the same regime lasting
for a decade.
It is clear that the traditional influence of the government and
political forces of Armenia will also be observed in the upcoming
presidential race in Nagorno Karabakh. However, with the current
state of indefiniteness in Armenia this influence will hardly have
a deciding role. There can be a sudden shift in this influence only
in case of an inadequate behavior of President Ghukasyan, for the
rumors about the third term in NKR is widely perceived in Armenia
as an effort to create as a precedent for Armenia. In the context of
the upcoming elections in Armenia the idea of this precedent arouses
a strong nihilistic approach not only among the opposition but also
the potential presidential candidates in Armenia.
Lragir, Armenia
Nov 13 2006
Although many people connected the problem of the NKR presidential
election with the adoption of the draft constitution by the parliament,
the meeting of parliament on November 1 did not bring about anything
important. The members of parliament approved the draft constitution,
which will be put to popular voting. The rumors about the relation
between the decision of the parliament and the upcoming presidential
election have diminished. The country is going to hold a referendum and
find out the attitude of the citizens of NKR towards the constitution.
It is possible that more people have realized that one decision or
another of President Arkady Ghukasyan on his further political career
has little relation to the Constitution. Moreover, in his October
11 statement President Ghukasyan explained his decision by other
circumstances than the adoption.
Certainly, the general political problems also have importance, both
home and international. Despite deep doubts about the statement of
President Ghukasyan (most people detect symptoms of preparations for
a third term in the actions of his team), some aides are asserting the
president's unlikelihood to run a third term. Moreover, the discussion
about the new president is said to be underway among his aides.
One way or another, both the government and the society are facing the
necessity to discuss the problem of electing a new president of NKR. In
this connection, Nagorno Karabakh is specific. The usual practice of
waiting until the next president is named will not work here. First,
NKR is a small country and everyone knows in person the figures around
the president. And in this connection, President Ghukasyan cannot be
proud at all. He has been heard speak about the difficulty of naming
the next president.
Of course, this does not mean that there are no candidates
in Karabakh. Most probably, there are no candidates around the
president. The names of the Secretary of State Security Bako Sahakyan
and Speaker Ashot Ghulyan mentioned recently hardly mean anything to
the society. And if the public is not delighted about these persons
who have a negative image, other high-ranking officials around the
president, as the results of polls suggest, are not perceived by the
society as new leaders of NKR.
This circumstance shows that the figures, who are not seen beside
President Ghukasyan, will most probably have a greater chance to
be named. These are not only figures from the opposition but also
government officials, who belong to the so-called reformist branch
of the government. This state of things appears natural, considering
another specific feature of the political life in NKR.
Here there is no gap between the government system and the society
unlike other post-Soviet states. In other words, the visible opposition
of forces is between the top officials and pro-government members of
parliament on one side and the society with the majority of public
officials on the other. This circumstance undoubtedly acquires a
political meaning. The example was the election of the mayor of
Stepanakert in 2004 when the candidate of the opposition Edward
Aghabekyan was supported by not only the society but also most
public officials, which helped the candidate of the opposition win
the election.
It is not accidental that presently the attention of the society
focuses on the deputy minister of foreign affairs Masis Mayilyan. The
loyalty of even the radical opposition and the mass media to this
figure is already evident. If the events develop similarly, it is
possible that naming a new president of Nagorno Karabakh will be
based on a scheme of an expansive consensus among the society of NKR.
This is an interesting phenomenon against the background of the
underdeveloped party systems of such states like NKR, and the social
and economic reality typical of the rule of the same regime lasting
for a decade.
It is clear that the traditional influence of the government and
political forces of Armenia will also be observed in the upcoming
presidential race in Nagorno Karabakh. However, with the current
state of indefiniteness in Armenia this influence will hardly have
a deciding role. There can be a sudden shift in this influence only
in case of an inadequate behavior of President Ghukasyan, for the
rumors about the third term in NKR is widely perceived in Armenia
as an effort to create as a precedent for Armenia. In the context of
the upcoming elections in Armenia the idea of this precedent arouses
a strong nihilistic approach not only among the opposition but also
the potential presidential candidates in Armenia.