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"Today Azerbaijan Is Not Ready For Either Peace Or War": Interview W

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  • "Today Azerbaijan Is Not Ready For Either Peace Or War": Interview W

    "TODAY AZERBAIJAN IS NOT READY FOR EITHER PEACE OR WAR": INTERVIEW WITH HAYK DEMOYAN

    Regnum, Russia
    Sept 30 2006

    Hayk Demoyan - candidate of historical sciences, expert, author of
    numerous works on Armenian-Turkish and Armenian-Azeri relationsREGNUM:
    After the well-known statement of the OSCE MG co-chairs, the
    Nagorno-Karabakh peace process has got into a stalemate. Whom does
    this situation benefit more and what can we expect from the possible
    future meetings of the Azerbaijani and Armenian presidents and
    FMs?The present situation is the logical result of what is called
    a negotiating process. Despite all efforts and proposals, the sides
    remain diametrically opposite on the key issue - the status of Nagorno
    Karabakh. What is status? Status is what Nagorno Karabakh has today,
    and it would be naïve to hope that Nagorno Karabakh will agree to any
    proposal or referendum that may reduce the existing status, that is,
    the independent existence of Nagorno-Karabakh Republic.

    In this light, I would like to advise not to keep the public opinion
    in Armenia and Nagorno Karabakh under the pressure of the concept
    of unsettled conflict. For Nagorno Karabakh Armenians, who suffered
    aggression on the part of Azerbaijan, the problem has been solved quite
    acceptably. One should not keep society under the strain of negative
    information flows. The problem of the Azerbaijani side is that they
    reject any scenario proposed and get very nervous about the concepts
    of "compromise" and "mutual concessions." Unfortunately, they have
    not realized yet - or they don't want to - that talks with NKR is
    the only acceptable way to peace. Under no pretext or temptation,
    will the Armenian side renounce what it has gained through losses
    and sufferings. It will not agree to pass this road again.

    It is very hard yet to say what exactly the co-chairs will put on the
    negotiating table. However, it is obvious that 2006 is already gone
    for any agreement. Today, Azerbaijan has little room for maneuver,
    and its only tactics are to blame the Armenian side for wrecking the
    negotiating process. However, everybody knows that the key reason of
    failures, so far, has been exactly the "whims" of Baku.

    REGNUM: They in Azerbaijan keep making bellicose statements, like
    "the Armenians are afraid of war," "We will liberate our lands by
    any means" and so on. What are they after?

    First, the situation when, on the one hand, the sides are negotiating
    peace, and, on the other, Baku keeps making revengeful militarist
    statements is beyond any logic. Obviously, in their fit of revenge,
    the Azeri authorities forget that war is something very bad and it
    is bad for the Azeri people too. Second, it seems that the Azeri
    authorities are convincing themselves that they have already won a
    virtual victory over the Armenians and, then, are surprised to see
    that it is not so in reality.

    To keep showing off bravado before cameras in hope that the opposite
    side will be horrified with their empty talk is something the weak
    do. In fact, we all know about bullying, malnutrition, unsanitary
    conditions and corruption in the Azerbaijani army - and about the
    huge peace-time human casualties they are sustaining - allegedly
    because of the Armenians.

    The conclusion is obvious: today, Azerbaijan is not ready for
    either peace or war. So, the Azerbaijani leaders' statements that
    "Azerbaijan's patience has limits" and "Azerbaijan will use any -
    even military - means" to solve the Nagorno-Karabakh problem are
    just irresponsible groundless words - something meant for certain
    sections of the Azerbaijani society and easily accepted by them. At
    the same time, there are many people in Azerbaijan who perfectly
    know what military capacities their country actually has and realize
    what consequences a new war by the Azerbaijani leaders may have
    for Azerbaijan.

    REGNUM: Armenia and Azerbaijan very seldom agree on anything
    in the negotiating process. What do they hope for and what role
    does the information war have at the current stage?Azerbaijan has
    managed to overcome a bit the initially pro-Armenian position in the
    Nagorno-Karabakh peace process. Today, it poses as a victim of the
    Armenian aggression but it forgets that it got into such a situation
    because of its own aggression against the peaceful population of
    Nagorno Karabakh. It is not a secret that for Azerbaijan the only
    acceptable solution to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is "Nagorno
    Karabakh without Armenians."All their promises of autonomy - even
    the highest possible one - are just empty talk with Oriental accent
    for the poorly aware international audience. The war of 1991-1993 has
    shown Azerbaijan's resolution to expel Nagorno-Karabakh Armenians from
    their historical land by any means, while Nagorno-Karabakh Armenians
    have proved their resolution to die for their land.

    Azerbaijan's current policy - particularly, to present Armenians as
    an enemy and to officially support anti-Armenian propaganda - proves
    that the Azerbaijani side has not changed its initial position on
    the Nagorno-Karabakh problem.

    Whether Azerbaijan likes it or not, Nagorno-Karabakh Republic is
    a fully-fledged state and, if somebody does not like it, let him
    continue calling NKR "so-called." This changes nothing at all. This
    is just self-complacency. Azerbaijan's provisos that "the status of
    Nagorno-Karabakh cannot be determined under continuing occupation and
    ethnic cleansing" is just a political slyness. The Armenian side has a
    big experience of work with the Azeri "peacemakers" and knows well that
    any one-sided concession is just the beginning of new - and probably
    bigger - ones. They in Baku must put up with the fact that Azeri
    territory is no longer 86,600 sq km, as it was in the Soviet times,
    and that in the West Azerbaijan will border on two Armenians states,
    who are ready to rebuff any military adventures and aggressive plans.

    REGNUM: Recently the Azerbaijani press reported that the Heydar
    Aliyev Foundation and Azerbaijani MPs are going to appeal to the
    Hague War Crimes Court against the Armenian and NKR leaders. How
    are they going to succeed in the matter?If I were in their shoes,
    I would not do it as there are plenty of counter-facts. Azerbaijan's
    propaganda machine is searching for new refined ways to compromise
    Armenia and its leaders. They don't notice the log in their own eye:
    in fact, the Azeri leaders are the best candidates for appearing in
    the Hague for answering the following charges: 1. For unleashing a
    cruel war against the peaceful population of Nagorno-Karabakh and
    borderline regions of Armenia,

    2. For blocking roads and transport arteries for humanitarian
    cargoes, particularly, for the regions ridden by earthquake in
    1988,3. For applying internationally prohibited arms against peaceful
    civilians,4. For using the tactics of "human wave" during the war -
    tactics that consumed lots of young and untrained Azeri recruits
    as cannon fodder,5. For recruiting thousands of international
    terrorists and hirelings against the national-liberation movement of
    the Nagorno-Karabakh Armenians, 6. For enrolling hundreds of criminals
    into war against peaceful Armenian population,

    7. For applying air-raids against peaceful settlements and for using
    pellet air bombs,8. For barbarously destroying lots of Armenian
    historical-cultural monuments in Azerbaijan and Nakhichevan.This
    is not the full list of what Azerbaijan has done. The "Azerbaijani
    dossier" for the Hague may be easily complied from neutral sources and
    international observers' reports about Azerbaijan's criminal aggression
    against the peaceful population of Nagorno Karabakh.Ilham Aliyev's
    statement that Armenia will never be match to Azerbaijan economically
    is an element of the psychological attack Azerbaijan used both during
    and after the war. Such statements are just for calming themselves
    down. Aliyev perfectly understands that Azerbaijan will never get
    everything and at once.When alleging that Armenia is isolated from
    all international projects and that almost half of its population
    is starving, the Azeri authorities forget that, in terms of economic
    and human potential, Azerbaijan is much weaker than Armenia, NKR and
    Diaspora taken together and that, if they synchronize and mobilize
    their resources, they will be by far stronger than Azerbaijan. The
    Azeri authorities should better think about their own people.REGNUM:
    There is a view that Azerbaijan will not benefit from the return of
    territories. Is it true?

    If, hypothetically, Azerbaijan gets 2-3 districts around NKR, it is
    hard to imagine that people will go back there. Most of the people
    who lived there before have either emigrated from Azerbaijan or have
    well integrated into the Absheron social-economic infrastructure.

    The factor of time in the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process is not just
    threats that "in due time we will become rich and strong and will
    get back our lands." One should not forget that much has changed in
    the conflict zone and in the psychology of people in the past years.

    There is a whole generation of youths who have no idea about their
    neighbors and regard them only as enemies. Those people have no
    memories about peaceful co-existence and good neighbor cooperation.

    This point is never considered in the abstract rhetoric of conflicts
    resolution, but it should be considered - as hasty decisions and
    pressure by third sides can spur up new dangerous developments in
    the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict zone.

    As regards the concept of restoration of territorial integrity as
    opposed to the self-determination of already self-determined nations,
    it already sounds like anachronism and is fraught with new calamities
    and ruined lives.

    In fact, they in the West perfectly understand that the post-Soviet
    "metropolises" will never get back their ethnic autonomies, but
    they consider it a movais tone to talk about it. The new parade of
    independences - Eritrea, East Timor, self-determined Montenegro and the
    Kosovo process - can only add to the arguments for the independence of
    the former Soviet autonomies. The independence of NKR was proclaimed
    on the basis of the international law and in line with the Soviet
    legislation. In this light, the last initiative of GUAM is certainly
    a challenge but its outcome is pre-determined. Azerbaijan believes it
    to be a diplomatic success, but it is just a small temporary tactical
    advantage which is good for propaganda only and will give the country
    no dividends at all. Let's not forget that the 4 UN resolutions on
    Nagorno Karabakh - the documents Azerbaijan has failed to peruse but
    keeps referring to - were ignored by its own self.

    --Boundary_(ID_7ZqiKdsYJIDPLT+eQ+x0gA)--
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