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What to do about Georgia?
Reuters AlertNet, UK
Oct 6 2006
What to make of the latest spat between Georgia and Russia, following
Georgia's arrest of four Russian military officers accused of
spying? It needs to be taken seriously, say two scholars in an
International Herald Tribune commentary.
The situation in the Southern Caucasus is already heating up, write
Anatol Lieven and John Hulsman, authors of "Ethical Realism: A Vision
for America's Role in the World". The Russia-backed Georgian province
of South Ossetia is set to hold referendum on independence in November
and Georgia is angry about this. On the other hand, the Georgians now
have a trained and equipped army for the first time since independence
thanks to U.S. help.
"...the stage may be set for an armed clash with grave repercussions
extending far beyond the Caucasus, and affecting above all the future
of the Middle East," warn Lieven and Hulsman.
Then there is the question of Kosovo. Russian President Vladimir
Putin has already warned that granting independence to Kosovo would
set a precedent for solving disputes over independence in Abkhazia
and South Ossetia. Western governments don't agree.
Lieven and Hulsman reproach the West for its different approaches to
conflicts such as Kosovo, Georgia, Palestine and Nagorno-Karabakh,
while each time proclaiming "adherence to 'universal principles'".
That is why both Russia and the West should apply "'a community of
reason', shaped not by legal but by rational and moral constraints,"
they say.
This, of course, would not be acceptable to legalists in the West,
but they should think twice before in effect encouraging new fighting
and ask themselves this: Is it worth risking a U.S.-Russian clash just
so Georgia can rule South Ossetia? Is the West prepared for body bags
from a future Caucasian conflict?
The fact that the Russian army officers were released by Georgia
absolutely doesn't mean that the tensions between two countries have
eased, says Karel De Gucht, chairman-in-office of the Organization for
Security and Cooperation in Europe, in a commentary in St Petersburg
Times, sees the arrest of the four Russians by Georgia as "an attempt
to escalate a dispute with Moscow to a level where Western powers
will have no choice but to intervene". It warns that there are no
quick solutions to the problem.
The paper makes a series of recommendations for both sides: Georgia
should become such a prosperous country that South Ossetia and
Abkhazia stop dreaming of being part of Russia; it should also offer
concessions to the separatist regimes in the provinces to avoid any
serious military clash. Russia, for its part, should not seek regime
change in Georgia as this may lead to the country becoming a failed
state and fertile ground for insurgent groups that would target Russia,
the paper concludes.
Reuters AlertNet, UK
Oct 6 2006
What to make of the latest spat between Georgia and Russia, following
Georgia's arrest of four Russian military officers accused of
spying? It needs to be taken seriously, say two scholars in an
International Herald Tribune commentary.
The situation in the Southern Caucasus is already heating up, write
Anatol Lieven and John Hulsman, authors of "Ethical Realism: A Vision
for America's Role in the World". The Russia-backed Georgian province
of South Ossetia is set to hold referendum on independence in November
and Georgia is angry about this. On the other hand, the Georgians now
have a trained and equipped army for the first time since independence
thanks to U.S. help.
"...the stage may be set for an armed clash with grave repercussions
extending far beyond the Caucasus, and affecting above all the future
of the Middle East," warn Lieven and Hulsman.
Then there is the question of Kosovo. Russian President Vladimir
Putin has already warned that granting independence to Kosovo would
set a precedent for solving disputes over independence in Abkhazia
and South Ossetia. Western governments don't agree.
Lieven and Hulsman reproach the West for its different approaches to
conflicts such as Kosovo, Georgia, Palestine and Nagorno-Karabakh,
while each time proclaiming "adherence to 'universal principles'".
That is why both Russia and the West should apply "'a community of
reason', shaped not by legal but by rational and moral constraints,"
they say.
This, of course, would not be acceptable to legalists in the West,
but they should think twice before in effect encouraging new fighting
and ask themselves this: Is it worth risking a U.S.-Russian clash just
so Georgia can rule South Ossetia? Is the West prepared for body bags
from a future Caucasian conflict?
The fact that the Russian army officers were released by Georgia
absolutely doesn't mean that the tensions between two countries have
eased, says Karel De Gucht, chairman-in-office of the Organization for
Security and Cooperation in Europe, in a commentary in St Petersburg
Times, sees the arrest of the four Russians by Georgia as "an attempt
to escalate a dispute with Moscow to a level where Western powers
will have no choice but to intervene". It warns that there are no
quick solutions to the problem.
The paper makes a series of recommendations for both sides: Georgia
should become such a prosperous country that South Ossetia and
Abkhazia stop dreaming of being part of Russia; it should also offer
concessions to the separatist regimes in the provinces to avoid any
serious military clash. Russia, for its part, should not seek regime
change in Georgia as this may lead to the country becoming a failed
state and fertile ground for insurgent groups that would target Russia,
the paper concludes.