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U.S.-Turkish Relations on the Brink?
By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross
Counterterrorism Blog, New Jersey
Oct 7 2006
For many years, Turkey -- a secular democracy with a predominantly
Muslim population -- has been a staunch U.S. ally. Since Turkey has
served as a bulwark of stability in the Middle East, it's important
that the U.S. recognize the disturbing manner in which Turkish public
opinion has been turning against the country's alliance with the
United States and ties with the West -- and how recent events may
further widen the rift between the U.S. and Turkey.
The change in Turkish public opinion is reflected in the annual
survey of public opinion released by the German Marshall Fund in
early September. The New York Times noted this survey in a September
10 editorial:
The survey's most striking finding is the degree to which Turks now
question their ties to the United States and Europe, and have warmed
to Iran, their neighbor to the east. The discontent appears anchored
in Turks' overwhelming disapproval of President Bush's handling of
international affairs and growing disapproval of European Union
leadership. Both are manifest in waning Turkish support for the
institutions that have bound Turkey to the West. Though Turkey has
been a staunch NATO member since 1952, only 44 percent of Turks in
this year's survey agreed that NATO was essential for Turkey's
security, versus 52 percent in 2005. Even though Turkey opened
official membership talks with the European Union last year -- after
strenuous efforts to meet the union's criteria -- only 54 percent of
Turks now view membership as a good thing, versus 73 percent in 2004.
Beyond that, both Turkey and the U.S. have recently made moves that
damage the countries' bilateral relationship. In late September, the
Senate Banking Committee blocked U.S. Export-Import Bank funding for
a proposed railway project that would connect Turkey with Azerbaijan
through Georgia, bypassing Armenian territory. This measure was
backed by the Armenian lobby, which argued that the railway amounted
to "an economic embargo against Armenia." For its own part, the
Turkish government did itself no favors with respect to its relations
with the U.S. when it decided not to freeze the assets of Yasin
el-Kadi, who appears on the UN's list of terrorism financiers.
Turkish prime minister Recep Erdogan said of El-Kadi: "I believe in
him as I believe in myself." One source opined that these actions by
the U.S. and Turkey are "a textbook example of the failure of
diplomacy and foreign policy: get nothing and pay a dear price for
it."
All this is occurring against the backdrop of Turkey's battle against
Kurdish separatist terrorism. As I have previously discussed on this
blog, the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) and Kurdistan Freedom
Falcons (TAK) have both launched a series of attacks that serve to
undermine the Turkish economy, with the PKK targeting oil and gas
pipelines while the TAK targets the tourist industry. These attacks
have further damaged U.S.-Turkish relations, as Turkish popular
perception holds that the U.S. isn't doing enough to help Turkey
combat Kurdish separatist terror. There are even allegations -- fed
by a recent interview with the brother of jailed PKK leader Abdullah
Ocalan -- that the U.S. has been funding and supporting the PKK.
Turkey is a significant ally in the war on terror for a number of
reasons. The direction of Turkish public opinion coupled with recent
events provides cause for concern about the state of U.S.-Turkish
relations. Ultimately, the New York Times was correct when it
editorialized: "The United States must not ever take Turkey for
granted."
Kyle Dabruzzi contributed research for this analysis.
By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross
Counterterrorism Blog, New Jersey
Oct 7 2006
For many years, Turkey -- a secular democracy with a predominantly
Muslim population -- has been a staunch U.S. ally. Since Turkey has
served as a bulwark of stability in the Middle East, it's important
that the U.S. recognize the disturbing manner in which Turkish public
opinion has been turning against the country's alliance with the
United States and ties with the West -- and how recent events may
further widen the rift between the U.S. and Turkey.
The change in Turkish public opinion is reflected in the annual
survey of public opinion released by the German Marshall Fund in
early September. The New York Times noted this survey in a September
10 editorial:
The survey's most striking finding is the degree to which Turks now
question their ties to the United States and Europe, and have warmed
to Iran, their neighbor to the east. The discontent appears anchored
in Turks' overwhelming disapproval of President Bush's handling of
international affairs and growing disapproval of European Union
leadership. Both are manifest in waning Turkish support for the
institutions that have bound Turkey to the West. Though Turkey has
been a staunch NATO member since 1952, only 44 percent of Turks in
this year's survey agreed that NATO was essential for Turkey's
security, versus 52 percent in 2005. Even though Turkey opened
official membership talks with the European Union last year -- after
strenuous efforts to meet the union's criteria -- only 54 percent of
Turks now view membership as a good thing, versus 73 percent in 2004.
Beyond that, both Turkey and the U.S. have recently made moves that
damage the countries' bilateral relationship. In late September, the
Senate Banking Committee blocked U.S. Export-Import Bank funding for
a proposed railway project that would connect Turkey with Azerbaijan
through Georgia, bypassing Armenian territory. This measure was
backed by the Armenian lobby, which argued that the railway amounted
to "an economic embargo against Armenia." For its own part, the
Turkish government did itself no favors with respect to its relations
with the U.S. when it decided not to freeze the assets of Yasin
el-Kadi, who appears on the UN's list of terrorism financiers.
Turkish prime minister Recep Erdogan said of El-Kadi: "I believe in
him as I believe in myself." One source opined that these actions by
the U.S. and Turkey are "a textbook example of the failure of
diplomacy and foreign policy: get nothing and pay a dear price for
it."
All this is occurring against the backdrop of Turkey's battle against
Kurdish separatist terrorism. As I have previously discussed on this
blog, the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) and Kurdistan Freedom
Falcons (TAK) have both launched a series of attacks that serve to
undermine the Turkish economy, with the PKK targeting oil and gas
pipelines while the TAK targets the tourist industry. These attacks
have further damaged U.S.-Turkish relations, as Turkish popular
perception holds that the U.S. isn't doing enough to help Turkey
combat Kurdish separatist terror. There are even allegations -- fed
by a recent interview with the brother of jailed PKK leader Abdullah
Ocalan -- that the U.S. has been funding and supporting the PKK.
Turkey is a significant ally in the war on terror for a number of
reasons. The direction of Turkish public opinion coupled with recent
events provides cause for concern about the state of U.S.-Turkish
relations. Ultimately, the New York Times was correct when it
editorialized: "The United States must not ever take Turkey for
granted."
Kyle Dabruzzi contributed research for this analysis.