Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

We are not afraid of war

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • We are not afraid of war

    October 14, 2006
    REGNUM » We are not afraid of war,.
    We are not afraid of war, but we don't want it: Interview with Armenian
    Defense Minister

    The Secretary of the presidential National Security Council, Defense
    Minister of Armenia Serzh Sargsyan has given an interview to REGNUM news
    agency (Russia) and El Pais newspaper (Spain)
    Mr. Minister, what do you think about the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh?
    There is a view that Armenia is unwilling to cede Nagorno-Karabakh but is
    unable to develop it. Is it true?
    This may be just one of the numerous personal views that do not reflect the
    real situation. What do they mean: Armenia is developing or not developing
    Nagorno-Karabakh? Nagorno-Karabakh Republic is an independent state and its
    economic growth is quite comparable with that of Armenia. In Armenia the
    annual GDP growth is 12%. Of course, we seek even better results but, you
    must agree that not all post-Soviet republics have such a rate.
    Perhaps, those who express such a view think that Armenia should more
    actively support Nagorno-Karabakh? I don't dispute that. And
    Nagorno-Karabakh residents, people who live in NKR, certainly, think
    likewise. However, you should understand that the situation "neither peace
    nor war" is not attractive for investors and businessmen. On the other hand,
    Nagorno-Karabakh is steadily developing. The situation you could see some
    few years ago is quite incomparable with what you can see now. The
    difference is obvious.
    You have qualified the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh as "neither peace nor
    war." For how long can this situation last now that Azerbaijan is quite
    actively strengthening its economy?
    The Azeri economy is really developing, but in 2005 Armenia had bigger
    economic growth. This year, due to growing oil revenues, Azerbaijan is
    developing a bit more actively.
    However, it would be wrong to say that the economic growth in Azerbaijan may
    force the Armenian side to capitulate. On the contrary, it may urge us to
    work better and to seek improvement not only in the economy but in other
    sectors - to become a developed state with a modern, highly efficient army.
    Only this will allow us to effectively oppose Azerbaijan in case of new war.
    I would like to say that one can't built an efficient army on money only.
    Besides, Azerbaijan does not have an overwhelming economic advantage over
    Armenia. It will take Azerbaijan several decades to attain the advantages it
    had in the early 1990s. As you remember, even then, despite its big
    advantages, the Azeri side lost the war. So, I would like to advise all
    those relying on money to come to their senses and to consider the lessons
    of the war Azerbaijan has once unsuccessfully unleashed against the
    indigenous population of Nagorno-Karabakh.
    However, can we say that today Nagorno-Karabakh is supported by Armenia's
    national budget?
    To tell the truth, I can't say exactly how much Armenia has subsidized to
    Nagorno-Karabakh for 2007. At the same time, we should not forget that
    Nagorno-Karabakh is an independent republic, who can freely dispose of its
    incomes. I mean that NK's budget consists not only of Armenia's subsidies
    but also of own incomes: tax revenues and other payments. The greater part
    of the humanitarian assistance comes from the Diaspora - Armenians living
    outside Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh. Nagorno-Karabakh lives the life all
    democratically developing states normally live.
    In one of you interviews you have said that Armenia has 45,000-strong army
    and it is much for the country. How much does Armenia budget for its army?
    In 2007 Armenia plans to spend 3.5% of its GDP on military needs - some
    $270mln-280mln, depending on the rate of the national currency - AMD. This
    may be much for Armenia, but, compared with some other countries, this is
    not enough for building a modern efficient army. As they say, everything is
    relative.
    Do you think that the Nagorno-Karabakh problem can be resolved by peace?
    Of course, it can. Perhaps, my comparison is a bit primitive but - any peace
    agreement implies agreement of the sides. This is like marriage. There is no
    marriage without mutual agreement. So, if we seek to solve the problem,
    while Azerbaijan - not, we can't help it. We believe that this problem must
    be solved exclusively peacefully on the basis of compromise.
    What kind of compromise will it be? Can you imagine the return of refugees
    from Azerbaijan to Nagorno-Karabakh?
    When we say peaceful resolution, we mean stable peace. Of course, at some
    time in the future I see some possibility of the refugees' return. After
    all, we can't isolate our countries from each other, we can't build "a Great
    Wall of China" and say that we will not contact with Azerbaijan any more,
    can we? History has shown that we can't. We have had conflicts and wars
    before but we still continued our contacts: after some time, Armenians and
    Azeris returned and began living together.
    However, now that the problem is yet unresolved, now that people have not
    yet healed the wounds they got during the war, the return of refugees is
    impossible.
    You know, the compromise is not about this. The people who left
    Nagorno-Karabakh 14-15 years ago have long settled down in new environments
    and are hardly prepared to leave everything they have there and to go back
    to Nagorno-Karabakh. The compromise is about something quite different -
    about Azerbaijan's recognizing the right of the Nagorno-Karabakh people to
    live independently, so they can feel themselves really secure and no longer
    rely on the security zone. There are other important components, too. The
    compromise must concern security - only then it will lead to stable peace.
    Why does Armenia strongly object to the transfer of the Nagorno-Karabakh
    conflict to the UN. Aren't you interested in discussion?
    Armenia objects to the transfer of the problem to any instance from the
    format of its present discussion. What can this transfer give us, after all?
    We have OSCE Minsk Group, whose members are all on the UN Security Council.
    What will the transfer change? Do you really believe that people
    representing, say, Somalia or some other far-away country are sufficiently
    competent of the Nagorno-Karabakh problem to give us sensible advice? I
    think that the whole point is that we should not prevent the work of the
    OSCE MG who is expert in the matter.
    Azerbaijan is trying to involve GUAM in the peace process. You in Yerevan
    say that, by doing it, Azerbaijan is leading the negotiating process into a
    deadlock. Do you think that under such conditions Nagorno-Karabakh may be
    involved in the process and at what stage?
    Nagorno-Karabakh's involvement in the negotiating process will be beneficial
    at any stage.
    Then why isn't it involved in the talks?
    Azerbaijan does not want it to. They say that, if Nagorno-Karabakh is
    involved in the talks, they will stop the negotiating process. We had to
    choose: either to negotiate without NK or not to negotiate at all. Judge
    yourselves what is better. You know, when there are no negotiations, the
    situation is fraught with new war. I have repeatedly said that we are not
    afraid of war, but we do not want it to resume. We do not fear this war, but
    we realize what catastrophic consequences it may have for both nations.
    Is war possible in the coming five years?
    I have always said and am saying now that Defense Minister, especially the
    Defense Minister of Armenia, must be always ready for war and must show high
    responsibility for his country's security. On the other hand, I believe that
    there will be no war in the near future. First, I am deeply convinced that
    today the Azeri army is not capable of waging a large-scale war. Second, the
    world community will strictly react to such actions as, in fact, a new war
    in Nagorno-Karabakh will spur up new wars in very many other places. We must
    know it and must think about security.
    What exactly has the OSCE MG achieved, so far? Does it have any
    achievements?
    Of course, it has. For 12 years already there has been truce in the region -
    there is no war. And this is the most important thing. What the
    international community wants is to prevent the resumption of the conflict,
    to prevent people from killing each other. And we have it. Second, once we
    were very close to solution. This problem is so difficult that one shouldn't
    expect a magician to come, wave his magic wand and solve it. One should work
    hard to solve it. The people involved in the peace process should be well
    informed of the situation.
    Could you specify when exactly the sides were close to solution?
    I think we were close to solution in Bucharest, in Paris, then, there was
    Key-West. One can't say that today Armenia or Azerbaijan reject the MG's
    proposals pointblank. On the other, show me any single person who really
    believes that the problem will be solved the moment it is put on the UN
    agenda. If there are such people, let's listen to them.
    You mean if there is no war, it is already good?
    Of course, it is.
    The Turkish and Azeri sections of Armenia's state border are blocked. It is
    clear that Azerbaijan will not open the border until the Nagorno-Karabakh is
    resolved. And what about Turkey? Has Armenia negotiated this problem with
    the Turkish side?
    We have repeatedly and firmly said that we are ready to establish diplomatic
    relations with Turkey with no preliminary conditions. I think that
    diplomatic relations are established exactly like that. However, the Turks
    are setting some conditions, avoiding dialogue - what can we do?
    Unfortunately, the initial talks have been stopped, and we still have no
    diplomatic relations.
    Do you have any contacts now?
    No, we have no serious official contacts. In the last three-four years there
    have been several contacts between our foreign ministries but these were
    once-time actions that can hardly be qualified as state relations.
    Why is Ankara so persistently refusing to establish relations?
    You know, it is a thankless thing to comment on the questions that are
    beyond my competence. Obviously, they in Turkey will give you a clearer
    answer, though, speaking personally, I have not heard anything specific from
    them, so far.
    I think that we must express our position and the Turks theirs and the
    international community should judge who is right and who is wrong. The
    international community should decide who complies with the principles of
    the European community and who does not. I would like to say once again -
    our position is very clear: Armenia is ready to establish relations with
    Turkey with no preliminary conditions. Even more, we believe that the talks
    for Turkey's admission into the EU may be useful for Armenia. You know, we
    want to have predictable neighbors.
    Today the situation over Iran is quite controversial. What consequences may
    its aggravation have for Armenia?
    Naturally, this will have negative consequences for Armenia. I don't even
    want to think about it as the situation will be really hard. First, Iran
    borders on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict zone. Second, for Armenia, Iran is
    an outlet into the outer world. So, any instability there is quite
    undesirable for Armenia.
    Armenia has good relations with Iran. How can you explain this - what is the
    formula of these relations? Are the tensions over Iran having any direct or
    indirect influence on the atmosphere of Armenian-Iranian relations?
    There is no such influence. Concerning our relations, I have already said
    that Iran immediately borders on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict zone.
    Besides, Iran is Armenia's key economic partner. It is rich in energy
    resources and it is extremely important for Armenia to effectively plan its
    energy security.
    On the other hand, Armenia is signatory to the agreement on nonproliferation
    of weapons of mass destruction and strictly complies with all of its
    requirements. That's why our priority in relations with Iran is economic
    cooperation, while, in security, we just exchange views and regular visits.
    We always remember that, though being an Islamic country and an OIC member,
    Iran shows restrained position on our conflict. Few countries in the OIC
    show similar stance.
    Could it be otherwise?
    Of course, it could. We should be realistic.
    Will the blockade of Iran exacerbate the blockade of Armenia?
    Of course, it will. If this happens, we will have only the Georgian road
    left.
    And what if the situation in Abkhazia and South Ossetia worsens.
    It will be very bad, too. Any instability in Georgia is a threat for
    stability in Armenia. Our main road runs via Georgia. As a matter of
    principle, landlocked countries often get in such situations.
    Will Georgia's aspiration to join NATO have any impact on Armenian-Georgian
    relations or, particularly, on the prospects of the Nagorno-Karabakh
    conflict settlement?
    I don't think that Georgia's aspiration to join NATO will have any impact on
    the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh.
    Besides, I don't think that we should tell Georgia which security system to
    join or how to ensure its national interests. I hope that, whatever security
    system Georgia joins, it will preserve friendly relations with Armenia. I
    think we are very close neighbors. Besides, Georgia is home to quite many
    Armenians who are citizens of that country.
    Do you have similar arguments for Azerbaijan's joining NATO?
    I would like to say once again - Armenia welcomes the predictability of the
    policies and values of its neighbors. I see nothing bad in our neighbors'
    aspiration to join an organization propagating human values. The richer our
    strategy the better.
    Do you recognize the territorial integrity of Georgia?
    We have long recognized Georgia as a state, exchanged instruments,
    demarcated borders.
    I mean in the light of the conflicts in Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
    It is Georgia's business.
    Do you mean it is Georgia's internal affair?
    We do not permit ourselves to give any assessments of the matter. We are not
    involved in those processes, and I see no sense in talking about them.
    Does Armenia expect any advantages from its participation in the Collective
    Security Treaty Organization (CSTO)?
    This organization is exactly for giving its members advantages. This is a
    collective security treaty, which means that its signatories should
    collectively oppose the challenges each of them may face. On the other hand,
    the signatory states are not yet fully prepared for sending their troops to
    each others' territories should any of them suffer from aggression or face a
    challenge.
    If Azerbaijan attacks Armenia, will you ask the CSTO for help? Will they
    help?
    I think you better ask this question to the heads of the CSTO states - they
    may give you an exhaustive answer. I can't answer in their stead. In any
    case, one can hope that if he is a member of some organization, he has the
    right to rely on its partners. In the modern world, one can't build its
    security on one's own. Even a strong country like the US does not act alone
    and leans on its partners. We all know that.
    That's why one can't ensure one's security without integration and
    collective efforts. Do you really think that 45,000 soldiers can ensure
    Armenia's security. Of course, they can't. By the way, we will shortly
    complete a strategy of national security. An inter-department commission has
    been working on it for already a year. Its basic principles have been
    approved by leading professional world centers, particularly, by the
    Academic Committee of the US National Defense University and was considered
    by a NATO international expert commission. Shortly, we will send the
    document to Moscow for the consideration of an expert group of the Russian
    State Administration Academy. Armenia's National Security Strategy clearly
    says that international integration is a guarantee of Armenia's security.
    Do you mean integration on the Caucasian level?
    I mean both regional and global integration, cooperation in the widest
    possible context.
    Is it possible for Armenia to integrate with Azerbaijan and Georgia on the
    Caucasian level?
    Why not. Integration with Azerbaijan will be possible only after the
    resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Until our soldiers are
    confronting each other in trenches, we can hardly speak about any serious
    integration. On the other hand, we can see some signs of integration within
    international organizations. For example, joint participation in BSEC and
    the CIS. With Azerbaijan and Georgia we are also integrating in the
    framework of NATO, particularly, under the IPAP. All the three countries are
    involved in some groups and indirectly cooperate within peacekeeping
    actions. However, full integration will be possible only after the
    resolution of the conflict, when we will stop regarding each other as
    enemies. As regards Georgia, we already cooperate on very many issues.
    Being CSTO member, Armenia actively cooperates with NATO. Experts see some
    contradiction in it. What is your position on the matter?
    You know, if I thought that these two directions contradict each other, I
    would not be hear. I take part in this process and consider that it is very
    important.
    Judge yourselves, why can Finland be outside NATO but, at the same time, be
    EU member and have normal relations with Russia? By the way, members of the
    PACE monitoring commission visited us yesterday and one of them was from
    Finland. One more example is Austria. Of course, I don't say that in
    development and expenses Armenia is on the same level with developed
    European countries, but we will reach their level some day.
    Under the NATO IPAP we plan to raise our armed forces to the world standards
    by 2015. Why should we think that we can't do it. If we go back to the
    1990 - then people could not even imagine that Armenia might some day have
    an army it has today. We are receiving very favorable reports about our
    forces in the Balkans and Iraq. We have to bring our whole army to this
    level.
Working...
X