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October 14, 2006
REGNUM
Viktor Yakubyan: Tbilisi is preparing double strike against Moscow and
Yerevan
The Russian-Armenian inter-governmental commission on economic cooperation
met in Moscow a few days ago. The same day the press reported the sides to
have agreed on how to alleviate the impact Russia's economic sanctions
against Georgia is having on Armenia. To remind, the sanctions were imposed
after the arrest and release of Russian officers in Georgia and,
particularly, concern the sphere of transport, particularly, motor and rail
transportation. This measure has put Armenia in as hard a situation as
Georgia.
"The transit of cargoes from Armenia via Georgia to Russia and vice versa
will not be stopped," the Secretary of the National Security Council of
Armenia, Defense Minister Serzh Sargsyan said after the Moscow meeting. His
colleague, the Russian co-chair of the commission, Russian Transport
Minister Igor Levitin appeared with quite a sensational statement. He said
that "the cargoes from Russia to Armenia and vice versa will be transported
via the port of Samsun (Turkey), from there to the port of Kavkaz (Russia)
and then to Poti (Georgia)." The ministers assured that two train ferries
will be launched between Kavkaz and Poti by the end of this year. Sargsyan
said that, presently, there is one train ferry between the ports that can
carry 20 cars.
All they said implies that the Kavkaz-Poti-Armenia route will not be used
hereinafter. Russia has stopped almost all cargo operations with Georgia and
is now forced to search for quite original ways to communicate with Armenia.
It should be noted that the direct transport communication between Armenia
and Turkey was stopped the moment Armenia proclaimed independence and will
hardly be resumed in the near future.
Thus, Russia is planning to send its cargoes from Kavkaz to Samsun and then
almost back to Batumi or Poti and only then to Armenia. Thus, Turkey is
becoming the second go-between (Georgia remains one in any case) in
Armenian-Russian commodity turnover.
We should take this project with certain skepticism as the point here is not
even in political or technical difficulty but in the lack of any sense and
logic. Such a long way round will be by far more expensive for Russian and
Armenian companies than the long-trodden Poti-Ilichevsk (Ukraine) route and
they will hardly give the latter up. Even without Samsum, Kavkaz-Poti is no
rival to the Ukrainian route due to its low capacity. Presently, its train
ferry can carry only 18 cars at one go.
However, the point is even not that the Russian and Armenian authorities
have "felt" some "original" way out the present situation. In fact, by
offering a Turkish transit route to Armenia, the Russian authorities make it
clear that their sanctions against Georgia will last for long. And it seems
that the other possible way-out for Armenia - via the Caspian Sea and Iran -
is not being considered.
In Moscow Armenian DM Serzh Sargsyan had a number of meetings, particularly,
with the leadership of the Russian Foreign Ministry. The Russian sources
report that the sides discussed the aggravation of Georgian-Russian
relations and the ways for Armenia to come out of the present deadlock.
Naturally, under the current economic pressure, the Georgian authorities are
also considering certain scenarios. Some sources say that Georgia is
actively consulting with the US, Azerbaijan and Turkey about its further
actions. First of all, the Georgian leadership is getting ready for a rise
in the Russian gas price. The sources say that starting from Jan 1 2007 the
price will be raised to $250 per 1,000 c m. Georgia will respond in a
counter-ultimatum: the transit tariff of Russian gas to Armenia will be
raised from $30 to $75 per 1,000 c m (after the first rise of the gas tariff
for Georgia from $55 to $110, Tbilisi raised the transit tariff for Armenia
from $15 to $30). Certainly, Gazprom will reject Georgia's proposal, but the
Georgian authorities will not be "surprised" and will start the practice of
illegal "siphoning" of the gas meant for Armenia.
Meanwhile, as early as Jan 20 Georgia is planning to get the first gas from
Azerbaijan via Baku-Erzurum pipeline. This will mark the beginning of the
plan, reportedly, approved by Washington: Turkey will give its share of the
Azeri gas to Georgia, and this will allow Tbilisi to say that it no longer
needs the Trans-Caucasian gas pipeline, which supplies gas from Russia to
Armenia via Georgia. This will put an end to Gazprom's plans to privatize
the pipeline - the plans that the US strongly objects to.
Thus, the winter 2006 will mark the introduction of new game rules in the
South Caucasus. It will be a kind of test not only for Georgia, who has
become a target for Russia's economic sanctions, but also for Armenia, who
has become an involuntary hostage to the Russian-Georgian contradictions.
Yerevan's only hope is the Iran-Armenian gas pipeline, to be launched by the
end of this year.
Viktor Yakubyan, expert on South Caucasus
REGNUM
Viktor Yakubyan: Tbilisi is preparing double strike against Moscow and
Yerevan
The Russian-Armenian inter-governmental commission on economic cooperation
met in Moscow a few days ago. The same day the press reported the sides to
have agreed on how to alleviate the impact Russia's economic sanctions
against Georgia is having on Armenia. To remind, the sanctions were imposed
after the arrest and release of Russian officers in Georgia and,
particularly, concern the sphere of transport, particularly, motor and rail
transportation. This measure has put Armenia in as hard a situation as
Georgia.
"The transit of cargoes from Armenia via Georgia to Russia and vice versa
will not be stopped," the Secretary of the National Security Council of
Armenia, Defense Minister Serzh Sargsyan said after the Moscow meeting. His
colleague, the Russian co-chair of the commission, Russian Transport
Minister Igor Levitin appeared with quite a sensational statement. He said
that "the cargoes from Russia to Armenia and vice versa will be transported
via the port of Samsun (Turkey), from there to the port of Kavkaz (Russia)
and then to Poti (Georgia)." The ministers assured that two train ferries
will be launched between Kavkaz and Poti by the end of this year. Sargsyan
said that, presently, there is one train ferry between the ports that can
carry 20 cars.
All they said implies that the Kavkaz-Poti-Armenia route will not be used
hereinafter. Russia has stopped almost all cargo operations with Georgia and
is now forced to search for quite original ways to communicate with Armenia.
It should be noted that the direct transport communication between Armenia
and Turkey was stopped the moment Armenia proclaimed independence and will
hardly be resumed in the near future.
Thus, Russia is planning to send its cargoes from Kavkaz to Samsun and then
almost back to Batumi or Poti and only then to Armenia. Thus, Turkey is
becoming the second go-between (Georgia remains one in any case) in
Armenian-Russian commodity turnover.
We should take this project with certain skepticism as the point here is not
even in political or technical difficulty but in the lack of any sense and
logic. Such a long way round will be by far more expensive for Russian and
Armenian companies than the long-trodden Poti-Ilichevsk (Ukraine) route and
they will hardly give the latter up. Even without Samsum, Kavkaz-Poti is no
rival to the Ukrainian route due to its low capacity. Presently, its train
ferry can carry only 18 cars at one go.
However, the point is even not that the Russian and Armenian authorities
have "felt" some "original" way out the present situation. In fact, by
offering a Turkish transit route to Armenia, the Russian authorities make it
clear that their sanctions against Georgia will last for long. And it seems
that the other possible way-out for Armenia - via the Caspian Sea and Iran -
is not being considered.
In Moscow Armenian DM Serzh Sargsyan had a number of meetings, particularly,
with the leadership of the Russian Foreign Ministry. The Russian sources
report that the sides discussed the aggravation of Georgian-Russian
relations and the ways for Armenia to come out of the present deadlock.
Naturally, under the current economic pressure, the Georgian authorities are
also considering certain scenarios. Some sources say that Georgia is
actively consulting with the US, Azerbaijan and Turkey about its further
actions. First of all, the Georgian leadership is getting ready for a rise
in the Russian gas price. The sources say that starting from Jan 1 2007 the
price will be raised to $250 per 1,000 c m. Georgia will respond in a
counter-ultimatum: the transit tariff of Russian gas to Armenia will be
raised from $30 to $75 per 1,000 c m (after the first rise of the gas tariff
for Georgia from $55 to $110, Tbilisi raised the transit tariff for Armenia
from $15 to $30). Certainly, Gazprom will reject Georgia's proposal, but the
Georgian authorities will not be "surprised" and will start the practice of
illegal "siphoning" of the gas meant for Armenia.
Meanwhile, as early as Jan 20 Georgia is planning to get the first gas from
Azerbaijan via Baku-Erzurum pipeline. This will mark the beginning of the
plan, reportedly, approved by Washington: Turkey will give its share of the
Azeri gas to Georgia, and this will allow Tbilisi to say that it no longer
needs the Trans-Caucasian gas pipeline, which supplies gas from Russia to
Armenia via Georgia. This will put an end to Gazprom's plans to privatize
the pipeline - the plans that the US strongly objects to.
Thus, the winter 2006 will mark the introduction of new game rules in the
South Caucasus. It will be a kind of test not only for Georgia, who has
become a target for Russia's economic sanctions, but also for Armenia, who
has become an involuntary hostage to the Russian-Georgian contradictions.
Yerevan's only hope is the Iran-Armenian gas pipeline, to be launched by the
end of this year.
Viktor Yakubyan, expert on South Caucasus