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All stick and no carrot
The Messenger, Georgia
Oct 20 2006
Russia still insists the mass deportations of Georgians are just
what any western country would do: expel illegal immigrants. However,
as Russian newspaper Kommersant pointed out, when western countries
deport illegal immigrants they make sure that they are given the
proper care, and don't let them die on the way to the plane.
The latest crisis amply demonstrates failure of Russian policy on
Georgia. Russia has pushed Georgia away probably for ever by its
actions, and now seems intent on just destabilising the country. This
short-sighted policy is all the more stupid when considering that
if they really do manage to push Georgia over the edge then Russia's
North Caucasus will fall of the map with it.
Not even the most optimistic Kremlin apparatchik can be under the
illusion that a pro-Moscow force will ever come to power in Georgia
now. That might have been a possibility once, Moscow could have offered
to help return the separatist territories, and in return Georgia would
have been eternally grateful, but that time has long since passed.
Yesterday US Assistant Secretary of State for Eurasian affairs Dan
Fried said that a stable Georgia is in Russia's interests. Though
that is patently obvious, it seems that no one in the Kremlin is
willing to accept the fact. Russia can only benefit from a peaceful,
predictable Georgia, and that means a democratic and united Georgia.
It is clear that any formal recognition of Abkhazia or South Ossetia
would compel the Georgian leadership to go to war, however disastrous
that would be. It is equally clear that the current status quo makes
it all but impossible for Russia and Georgia to have normal relations.
Russia has legitimate security interests of course, including not
wanting to see Georgia in NATO, or at the very least not in NATO and
with US bases on its soil, but there is more than one way to skin a
cat: deals can be struck. Georgia would almost certainly agree to most
Russian demands if Abkhazia was on the table, the all-stick-no-carrot
approach pays no dividends. Georgia bashing just makes Georgia ever
more determined to join NATO, as every time Russia lashes out it
proves that Georgia is in need of protection.
The situation as it stands could develop in two possible ways,
Russia could make good on the statements of some of its more
radical politicians and turn Georgia into a failed state. This
would be catastrophic for Georgia, but also for Russia. With
barely contained tensions in North Ossetia, Ingushetia, Chechnya and
Kabardino-Balkaria-all on Georgia's border-any chaos in Georgia would
snowball. There is also the possibility that a freefalling Georgia
would bring Azerbaijan and Armenia with it, which would really be
a disaster.
The other scenario is the Baltic one, Russia's isolation of Georgia
forces the latter to find new markets, democratise and westernise
quickly and pay global prices for energy, and eventually, begrudgingly,
Russia is compelled to treat Georgia as an equal partner. Whether
Georgia meets with triumph or disaster is now largely down to the
sanity of Russian decision makers. In the latest crisis, Russia has
as much to lose as Georgia does.
The Messenger, Georgia
Oct 20 2006
Russia still insists the mass deportations of Georgians are just
what any western country would do: expel illegal immigrants. However,
as Russian newspaper Kommersant pointed out, when western countries
deport illegal immigrants they make sure that they are given the
proper care, and don't let them die on the way to the plane.
The latest crisis amply demonstrates failure of Russian policy on
Georgia. Russia has pushed Georgia away probably for ever by its
actions, and now seems intent on just destabilising the country. This
short-sighted policy is all the more stupid when considering that
if they really do manage to push Georgia over the edge then Russia's
North Caucasus will fall of the map with it.
Not even the most optimistic Kremlin apparatchik can be under the
illusion that a pro-Moscow force will ever come to power in Georgia
now. That might have been a possibility once, Moscow could have offered
to help return the separatist territories, and in return Georgia would
have been eternally grateful, but that time has long since passed.
Yesterday US Assistant Secretary of State for Eurasian affairs Dan
Fried said that a stable Georgia is in Russia's interests. Though
that is patently obvious, it seems that no one in the Kremlin is
willing to accept the fact. Russia can only benefit from a peaceful,
predictable Georgia, and that means a democratic and united Georgia.
It is clear that any formal recognition of Abkhazia or South Ossetia
would compel the Georgian leadership to go to war, however disastrous
that would be. It is equally clear that the current status quo makes
it all but impossible for Russia and Georgia to have normal relations.
Russia has legitimate security interests of course, including not
wanting to see Georgia in NATO, or at the very least not in NATO and
with US bases on its soil, but there is more than one way to skin a
cat: deals can be struck. Georgia would almost certainly agree to most
Russian demands if Abkhazia was on the table, the all-stick-no-carrot
approach pays no dividends. Georgia bashing just makes Georgia ever
more determined to join NATO, as every time Russia lashes out it
proves that Georgia is in need of protection.
The situation as it stands could develop in two possible ways,
Russia could make good on the statements of some of its more
radical politicians and turn Georgia into a failed state. This
would be catastrophic for Georgia, but also for Russia. With
barely contained tensions in North Ossetia, Ingushetia, Chechnya and
Kabardino-Balkaria-all on Georgia's border-any chaos in Georgia would
snowball. There is also the possibility that a freefalling Georgia
would bring Azerbaijan and Armenia with it, which would really be
a disaster.
The other scenario is the Baltic one, Russia's isolation of Georgia
forces the latter to find new markets, democratise and westernise
quickly and pay global prices for energy, and eventually, begrudgingly,
Russia is compelled to treat Georgia as an equal partner. Whether
Georgia meets with triumph or disaster is now largely down to the
sanity of Russian decision makers. In the latest crisis, Russia has
as much to lose as Georgia does.