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IS THE WEST LOSING TURKEY?
The Economist
October 21, 2006
U.S. Edition
Turkish squabbles with America and Europe
Repair work is needed to mend a deteriorating relationship
THE relationship between Turkey and the West has always been awkward.
The age-old hostility between the rising Muslim empire of the Ottomans
and the declining Christian one of Byzantium still casts a shadow-as
the pope discovered when he unwisely quoted a Byzantine emperor's
negative views of Muhammad. So it is no surprise that tensions
should arise between Turkey and the European Union, or between
Turkey and America. What is worrying is that, at a moment when these
two relationships matter more than ever, both have simultaneously
deteriorated.
Turkey is important to the Americans and Europeans for geographical
reasons: it abuts the EU to its west and the Caucasus, Iran, Iraq and
Syria to its east. It matters for economic reasons: fast-growing GDP
and a rising population have made it an important trade and investment
partner. It is significant militarily, with the biggest NATO army
after America's. But it counts above all as the best exemplar of
a mainly Muslim country that is a thriving democracy and a secular
republic-a rare beast that the West desperately needs to encourage.
Yet Turkey's relations with the United States have been testy ever
since its parliament blocked the passage of American troops to Iraq
in March 2003. Now the Turks are simmering because they say the
Americans have done nothing to stop Kurdish PKK fighters, who have
resumed guerrilla and terrorist activities in Turkey's south-east,
basing themselves in the northern Kurdish area of Iraq. The public
mood in Turkey has turned hostile to America: in one poll this summer,
more Turks had a good opinion of Iran than of the United States.
Ordinary Turks have also become more negative about Europe. In
December 2004, when the government of Recep Tayyip Erdogan won the
promise of an opening of negotiations to join the EU, the reaction
across Turkey was euphoric. But the talks have progressed painfully
slowly. The perception in Ankara is that the EU is piling on big
demands-for constitutional change, economic liberalisation, more
religious tolerance-but offering little in return. Over the past two
years a stream of leaders from such countries as France, Germany and
Austria have made clear that they are against Turkey ever joining
the EU. And now Brussels is threatening to suspend the entry talks
unless Turkey fulfils its promise to open its ports and airports to
the (Greek) Republic of Cyprus, although the EU's effective embargo
of northern Cyprus will remain ()see page 51.
In such a climate, even small gestures can be damaging. The bill just
approved by the French National Assembly to make it a crime to deny the
Armenian genocide of 1915 seems unlikely ever to become law. But it has
created a storm of protest in Turkey, which has never acknowledged the
genocide. In the run-up to next year's election in Turkey, Mr Erdogan,
who leads the mildly Islamist AK party, is understandably inclined to
pander to nationalist (and religious) feeling. Yet he is playing with
fire: radical Islam is gaining fresh recruits, and mutterings can be
heard in the Turkish army, which has a long history of interfering in
politics, about its duty to protect the secular tradition of Ataturk.
Some in Washington might welcome a military intervention if it produced
a more compliant ally. But it would be a huge setback in the impressive
progress that Turkey has made under Mr Erdogan. He would do well to
continue that progress, by returning to the goal that he first chose
in 2003: to prepare Turkey for joining the EU. That also requires a new
engagement by the Europeans. Rather than speaking out against Turkey's
eventual membership, EU leaders should let the negotiations proceed
without prejudice to their outcome. The current Finnish presidency of
the EU also deserves strong support in its efforts to find a compromise
that averts the "train-wreck" over Cyprus which threatens to scupper
the talks. Both America and Europe must pay closer attention to Turkey
in the next few months if they are to avoid the risk of losing it.
The Economist
October 21, 2006
U.S. Edition
Turkish squabbles with America and Europe
Repair work is needed to mend a deteriorating relationship
THE relationship between Turkey and the West has always been awkward.
The age-old hostility between the rising Muslim empire of the Ottomans
and the declining Christian one of Byzantium still casts a shadow-as
the pope discovered when he unwisely quoted a Byzantine emperor's
negative views of Muhammad. So it is no surprise that tensions
should arise between Turkey and the European Union, or between
Turkey and America. What is worrying is that, at a moment when these
two relationships matter more than ever, both have simultaneously
deteriorated.
Turkey is important to the Americans and Europeans for geographical
reasons: it abuts the EU to its west and the Caucasus, Iran, Iraq and
Syria to its east. It matters for economic reasons: fast-growing GDP
and a rising population have made it an important trade and investment
partner. It is significant militarily, with the biggest NATO army
after America's. But it counts above all as the best exemplar of
a mainly Muslim country that is a thriving democracy and a secular
republic-a rare beast that the West desperately needs to encourage.
Yet Turkey's relations with the United States have been testy ever
since its parliament blocked the passage of American troops to Iraq
in March 2003. Now the Turks are simmering because they say the
Americans have done nothing to stop Kurdish PKK fighters, who have
resumed guerrilla and terrorist activities in Turkey's south-east,
basing themselves in the northern Kurdish area of Iraq. The public
mood in Turkey has turned hostile to America: in one poll this summer,
more Turks had a good opinion of Iran than of the United States.
Ordinary Turks have also become more negative about Europe. In
December 2004, when the government of Recep Tayyip Erdogan won the
promise of an opening of negotiations to join the EU, the reaction
across Turkey was euphoric. But the talks have progressed painfully
slowly. The perception in Ankara is that the EU is piling on big
demands-for constitutional change, economic liberalisation, more
religious tolerance-but offering little in return. Over the past two
years a stream of leaders from such countries as France, Germany and
Austria have made clear that they are against Turkey ever joining
the EU. And now Brussels is threatening to suspend the entry talks
unless Turkey fulfils its promise to open its ports and airports to
the (Greek) Republic of Cyprus, although the EU's effective embargo
of northern Cyprus will remain ()see page 51.
In such a climate, even small gestures can be damaging. The bill just
approved by the French National Assembly to make it a crime to deny the
Armenian genocide of 1915 seems unlikely ever to become law. But it has
created a storm of protest in Turkey, which has never acknowledged the
genocide. In the run-up to next year's election in Turkey, Mr Erdogan,
who leads the mildly Islamist AK party, is understandably inclined to
pander to nationalist (and religious) feeling. Yet he is playing with
fire: radical Islam is gaining fresh recruits, and mutterings can be
heard in the Turkish army, which has a long history of interfering in
politics, about its duty to protect the secular tradition of Ataturk.
Some in Washington might welcome a military intervention if it produced
a more compliant ally. But it would be a huge setback in the impressive
progress that Turkey has made under Mr Erdogan. He would do well to
continue that progress, by returning to the goal that he first chose
in 2003: to prepare Turkey for joining the EU. That also requires a new
engagement by the Europeans. Rather than speaking out against Turkey's
eventual membership, EU leaders should let the negotiations proceed
without prejudice to their outcome. The current Finnish presidency of
the EU also deserves strong support in its efforts to find a compromise
that averts the "train-wreck" over Cyprus which threatens to scupper
the talks. Both America and Europe must pay closer attention to Turkey
in the next few months if they are to avoid the risk of losing it.