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RFE/RL Newsline - 10/23/2006

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  • RFE/RL Newsline - 10/23/2006

    RADIO FREE EUROPE/RADIO LIBERTY, PRAGUE, CZECH REPUBLIC
    _________________________________________ __________________
    RFE/RL NEWSLINE Vol. 10, No. 195, Part I, 23 October 2006


    xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxxx
    Headlines, Part I

    * PUTIN YIELDS NOTHING AT RUSSIA-EU SUMMIT

    * HUNDREDS OF FOREIGN NGOS LEFT STRANDED

    * ABKHAZ LEADER REAFFIRMS INDEPENDENCE BID

    END NOTE: WILL MOSCOW FACE A COLD, DARK WINTER?
    xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxxxx


    TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA

    ARMENIAN OPPOSITION PARTY LEADER SAYS FORMER PRESIDENT TO SEEK RETURN
    TO PRESIDENCY. Ararat Zurabian, the leader of the former ruling
    Armenian Pan-National Movement (HHSh), announced on October 20 that
    former Armenian President Levon Ter-Petrosian "will definitely
    participate" in the country's 2008 presidential election, according
    to RFE/RL's Armenian Service. Zurabian added that Ter-Petrosian's
    return to active politics will "completely change the existing
    situation in Armenia," but noted that he was merely "expressing his
    personal view" and admitted that he has not discussed the issue with
    the reclusive former president. Although Zurabian made the same
    announcement before the 2003 presidential election, Ter-Petrosian
    failed to enter that race as predicted and has showed no signs of
    returning to politics. The opposition leader further explained that
    even without Ter-Petrosian, the opposition party still plans on
    putting forth a presidential candidate "in any case," and hinted at a
    possible tactical alliance with other ideologically similar
    opposition parties prior to the May 2007 parliamentary elections.
    Despite a recent attempt at regaining its lost political standing in
    Armenia, the party remains hindered by an internal split between
    rival actions divided among a group loyal to fugitive former Interior
    Minister Vano Siradeghian and a rival faction aligned with the former
    president. RG

    ARMENIAN AND AZERBAIJANI DEFENSE MINISTERS MEET. In a statement
    released in Yerevan, Armenian Defense Ministry spokesman Seyran
    Shahsuvarian confirmed on October 20 that Armenian Defense Minister
    Serzh Sarkisian met with his Azerbaijani counterpart Safar Abiyev at
    the westernmost section of the heavily militarized frontier along the
    Armenian-Azerbaijani border, RFE/RL's Armenian Service reported. The
    ministers, meeting at the initiative of the OSCE officials empowered
    to monitor the so-called "line of contact" separating both sides,
    discussed "issues of mutual concern" related to a recent series of
    cease-fire violations along the border and near Nagorno-Karabakh. RG

    GEORGIAN SOCIAL SECURITY OFFICIAL RELEASED FROM CUSTODY. A Tbilisi
    municipal court ruled late on October 20 to release Zaza Sopromadze,
    the director-general of Georgia's United Fund for Social Security,
    from detention after he agreed to post some 50,000 lari ($28,500) in
    bail, ITAR-TASS reported. Arrested on October 19 with six other
    colleagues, Sopromadze faces criminal charges of "abuse of office,"
    fraud, and embezzlement estimated at roughly 570,000 lari ($325,000).
    The six other senior officials of the Social Security Fund, including
    the deputy head of the fund and several departmental heads, were
    sentenced on October 21 to two months pre-trial detention. RG

    ABKHAZ LEADER REAFFIRMS INDEPENDENCE BID... EU Special Representative
    for the South Caucasus Peter Semneby on October 21 met in Sukhum
    (Sukhumi) with Sergei Bagapsh and Sergei Shamba, who are president
    and foreign minister respectively of the unrecognized Republic of
    Abkhazia, according to apsny.ru and ITAR-TASS. Bagapsh informed the
    EU envoy that the Abkhaz "position remains unchanged" and reaffirmed
    the Abkhaz drive for independence. He added that "we do not consider
    Georgia a reliable partner in the negotiating process" and argued
    that "Georgia is not ready to solve the problem by peaceful means,"
    further warning that "Georgia is actively preparing for a war with
    Abkhazia and South Ossetia." Both Abkhaz leaders stressed that
    Abkhazia is prepared to resume talks with Georgia as soon as that
    country complies with the October 13 UN Security Council resolution
    demanding that it withdraw from the Kodori Gorge the troops it
    deployed there in late July, and also the so-called Abkhaz government
    in exile, in order to "make it possible to resume the dialogue" (see
    "RFE/RL Newsline," October 16, 2006). Accompanied by the German and
    Finnish ambassadors to Georgia, Patricia Flor and Tery Hakala,
    respectively, Semneby said that the European Union continues to "show
    keen interest" in a peaceful settlement of the Georgian-Abkhaz
    conflict. He further argued that an "orientation to Europe will
    create conditions for the economic development" of Abkhazia as "close
    relations with the EU will give guarantees, which are necessary for
    investors" interested in the region. LF/RG

    ...AND SOUTH OSSETIAN LEADER RULES OUT REJOINING GEORGIA. South
    Ossetian President Eduard Kokoity reiterated on October 21 his
    opposition to any reunification with Georgia, according to Interfax
    and ITAR-TASS. President Kokoity characterized the South Ossetian
    history as a part of Georgia as one of "our people being threatened
    with genocide," Interfax reported. The South Ossetia leader echoed
    the resolve of Abkhaz President Sergei Bagapsh, who similarly
    contended that Abkhazia "can never live with Georgia" as a unitary
    state and reaffirmed the Abkhaz drive for independence (see above).
    Abkhazia also recently appealed to the Russian parliament for formal
    recognition as an independent state (see "RFE/RL Newsline," October
    17 and 19, 2006). RG

    GEORGIA REJECTS ANY ATTEMPT TO RESOLVE CONFLICTS BY FORCE... Georgian
    Foreign Minister Gela Bezhuashvili pledged on October 21 that Tbilisi
    will not use force to resolve its conflicts with Abkhazia or South
    Ossetia, ITAR-TASS reported. The foreign minister added that the
    Georgian government has in fact "prepared a statement that sets forth
    the position of the Georgian authorities on a peaceful solution to
    these conflicts," and affirmed that Tbilisi pursues "a clear line
    towards peaceful settlement of these conflicts on the basis of plans
    drafted by the country's leadership and approved by the OSCE and
    other international organizations." Bezhuashvili's remarks follow
    recent statements by Russian President Vladimir Putin during a news
    conference after an informal EU-Russia summit in which he blamed the
    Georgian leadership for worsening relations between Moscow and
    Tbilisi, and accusing Tbilisi of seeking "a favorable climate" for
    "solving the problems with South Ossetia and Abkhazia by force
    through bloodshed." RG

    ...AFTER U.S. RULES OUT SUPPORT FOR ANY MILITARY MOVE BY GEORGIA.
    U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Daniel Fried warned on October 20
    that the United States would not support military action by Georgia
    to regain control of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, stating that there
    is "no military solution to any of these conflicts," ITAR-TASS
    reported. RG

    OPPOSITION SLAMS GEORGIAN PRESIDENT'S CALL FOR EARLY ELECTIONS.
    Opposition parties and political figures expressed outrage on October
    20 at President Mikheil Saakashvili's announcement the previous day
    that he plans to submit to parliament a bill on bringing forward by
    eight months the date of the presidential election due in January
    2009, Caucasus Press reported. Saakashvili reasoned that it would
    save "time and energy" to hold the presidential ballot concurrently
    with the parliamentary election. Pikria Chikhradze of the New
    Conservatives (aka New Rightists) suggested that Saakashvili is
    concerned at the dwindling popularity of his United National
    Movement, while Zviad Dzidziguri commented that Saakashvili wants to
    eradicate the Georgian opposition, Caucasus Press reported. Davit
    Usupashvili of the opposition Republican Party suggested
    Saakashvili's proposal was a response to both domestic disillusion
    and criticism by the EU and U.S. of his policy. Former Foreign
    Minister Salome Zourabichvili accused Saakashvili of seeking to
    prevent a redistribution of forces within parliament and to establish
    totalitarian rule, Caucasus Press reported on October 21. LF

    CLASH ERUPTS BETWEEN HUNDREDS OF KAZAKH, TURKISH WORKERS. A regional
    prosecutor in the Kazakh Caspian Sea port of Atyrau, Rakhimbek
    Mamyrbaev, reported on October 20 that a mass brawl between Kazakh
    and Turkish construction workers left nearly 140 people injured,
    Interfax reported. The clash, involving as many as 300 Kazakh and 100
    Turkish workers, left 115 seriously wounded and requiring medical
    attention. The laborers, contracted for the Tengizchevroil joint
    venture, are working on the construction of a plant near the Tengiz
    oil field, according to "Kazakhstan Today." RG

    KAZAKH PRESIDENT'S DAUGHTER CRITICIZES INDIAN OWNER FOR TRAGIC MINING
    ACCIDENT... The daughter of Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbaev on
    October 20 accused the Indian-born steel magnate Lakshmi Mittal of
    responsibility for the deaths of more than 80 Kazakh coal miners in
    the past three years, RFE/RL reported, citing the weekly "Karavan"
    newspaper's website. In a "Karavan" interview, Nazarbaeva criticized
    the Arcelor Mittal group and its executives for failing to ensure
    adequate safety conditions at several of the coal mines that they
    operate in Kazakhstan. Nazarbaeva, who holds a seat in the
    parliament, added that Kazakhstan must improve its labor laws and
    called for greater legislative oversight over foreign investors.
    After protests over a gas explosion in September that killed 41
    Kazakh miners, the Arcelor Mittal group raised the monthly salaries
    of its employees to the equivalent of at least $700 and pledged to
    address safety concerns in the mines. RG

    ...AFTER KAZAKH PROSECUTORS ANNOUNCE ANOTHER ARREST. Prosecutors in
    the central Kazakh region of Qaraghandy announced on October 19 the
    arrest of a fifth coal-mine employee over the gas explosion that
    claimed 41 lives in September (see "RFE/RL Newsline," September 21,
    2006), according to "Kazakhstan Today." The latest arrest, which
    reportedly took place on October 14, follows the arrest of four other
    mine officials on charges of criminal negligence. RG

    PLANNED MEETING BETWEEN KYRGYZ AUTHORITIES AND OPPOSITION CANCELED. A
    planned meeting between Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek Bakiev and leaders
    of the opposition was canceled on October 21 after some opposition
    leaders objected to the size of the presidential delegation, RFE/RL's
    Kyrgyz Service reported. The meeting was intended to ease tensions
    between the opposition and the Kyrgyz president before a planned
    opposition rally set for November 2 in Bishkek. Galina Kulikova, the
    leader of the Menin Olkom (My Country) party, said that opposition
    For Reforms movement leader Temir Sariev was responsible for calling
    off the meeting, although "the presidential administration was
    prepared" to meet "all the conditions presented" by the opposition
    for the talks. Tursunbek Akun, the head of the presidential Human
    Rights Commission, blamed both sides and urged them to engage in a
    constructive dialogue. RG

    KYRGYZ PARLIAMENTARIAN SAYS PRESIDENT OFFERED SENIOR POSTS TO
    OPPOSITION DEPUTIES. Kyrgyz opposition lawmaker Azimbek Beknazarov
    announced on October 20 that he and two other opposition leaders
    declined an offer of state jobs by President Kurmanbek Bakiev,
    AKIpress and the 24.kg website reported. Speaking to reporters in
    Bishkek, Beknazarov said that he was offered the position of Supreme
    Court chairman, while former Trade Minister Almazbek Atambaev was
    promised the prime ministerial post and Omurbek Tekebaev was offered
    his former position as parliamentary speaker. A second opposition
    parliamentarian, Melis Eshimkanov, also reported to the parliament
    that he was given assurances from an unnamed senior presidential
    official that Bakiev would meet with opposition leaders. RG

    PLAY BY TURKMEN PRESIDENT OPENS IN ASHGABAT THEATERS. A play
    purportedly written by Turkmen President Saparmurat Niyazov opened in
    five theaters in the capital, Ashgabat, on October 21, according to
    Interfax. An unnamed Culture Ministry official explained that the
    theaters chose to offer stage productions based on Niyazov's
    "immortal works." In a televised address the same day, Niyazov
    appealed to the Turkmen public to not praise him so often, saying
    that "it is hard for me to listen to applause meant only for me." RG

    TURKMEN PRESIDENT ADMITS HEART CONDITION. President Niyazov admitted
    on October 20 for the first time that he suffers from a heart
    condition, the ferghana.ru website reported. In a speech to a "world
    congress of ethnic Turkmen," President Niyazov explained that he is
    unable to fast during the holy Muslim month of Ramadan because he has
    to take medication for an unspecified "heart ailment." Niyazov's
    health has long been the object of speculation, exacerbated by
    reports in the state-controlled media that has undergone medical
    checkups twice this year. RG


    RUSSIA

    PUTIN YIELDS NOTHING AT RUSSIA-EU SUMMIT... Meeting with EU leaders
    on October 20 in Lahti, Finland, for what Britain's "Financial Times"
    described as a "tense" summit dinner, President Vladimir Putin did
    not agree to guarantee Russia's international contracts, open up its
    energy market, or ratify in its present form the Energy Charter,
    which Moscow signed with the EU in 1994 and which would require it to
    open up access to its pipelines, international media reported (see
    "RFE/RL Newsline," October 20, 2006). EU leaders by and large went to
    great pains to present a united front and stressed the importance of
    transparency and observing legal norms in developing mutually
    beneficial energy ties. But the "Financial Times" added that "the
    meeting with...Putin served as an embarrassing reminder to European
    leaders that their attempt to build a more equal energy partnership
    with Russia has yielded few positive results." The summit came
    against a backdrop of recent Russian moves against Georgia and
    Georgians living in Russia, the unresolved murder of critical
    journalist Anna Politkovskaya, questionable Kremlin behavior over the
    Sakhalin-2 gas production-sharing agreement (PSA) and other PSAs, and
    remarks by Putin that appeared to make light of serial rape. French
    President Jacques Chirac, who favors strong ties with Russia as a
    "counterweight" to the United States, said that "moral issues [and]
    economic interests...should not be connected." In response, Estonian
    Prime Minister Andrus Ansip said that "we have to take a very strong
    position...[and] find a good balance between [human rights] values
    and economic interests. It is totally wrong to pay attention only to
    [economic] interests." PM

    ...BUT OFFERS SOME QUIPS OF HIS OWN... Georgia and human rights
    played only a "marginal role" at the October 20 EU-Russia summit at
    Lahti, Finland, Germany's "Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung" wrote on
    October 23. But President Putin stressed that Georgia is to blame for
    the current tensions, saying that Russia's aim is to "avoid
    bloodshed." An unnamed "furious diplomat" told the "Financial Times"
    of October 23 that French President Chirac "hung Georgia out to dry"
    by refusing to let that issue get in the way of energy discussions.
    Putin, whom the London daily described as an "implacable dinner
    guest," sought once again to divide some of the older EU members from
    the newer ones by "taking pleasure in appearing to confuse Latvia and
    Lithuania." In a manner reminiscent of Soviet rebuttals of U.S.
    criticism of Soviet human rights practices by referring to U.S.
    racial inequalities, Putin responded to negative comments about
    Russian democracy by noting the extent of corruption in Spanish
    municipalities, London's "The Guardian" reported on October 23. He
    left Italian Prime Minister Romano Prodi "without words" by pointing
    out that "mafia" is an Italian word. Putin nonetheless appeared to
    win at least some approval around the table by remarking that the
    EU's most important challenge is to "safeguard Christianity in
    Europe." PM

    ...WHILE TRYING TO BE UPBEAT. President Putin left the October 20
    Lahti EU-Russia summit by saying that he is that even the "most
    controversial" differences with the EU can be resolved, RFE/RL
    reported. The two sides will hold a full summit meeting in Helsinki
    on November 24. The EU hopes to use that session to launch talks on a
    new comprehensive cooperation agreement to replace the current
    Partnership and Cooperation Agreement, which runs out in 2007. Putin
    said in Lahti that he would like the new accord to be called a
    Strategic Partnership Treaty, but also suggested energy issues might
    need to be tackled outside of it. The German Foreign Ministry, which
    is controlled by the Social Democratic Party (SPD), has drawn up a
    position paper independent of Chancellor Merkel and her Christian
    Democratic Union (CDU-CSU), in which the ministry aims to develop the
    EU's relations with Russia on the basis of an expanding network of
    interrelationships (see "RFE/RL Newsline," September 5 and October 19
    and 20, 2006). In January 2007, Germany will take the rotating chairs
    of the EU and the Group of Eight (G8) leading industrialized
    countries. PM

    EADS WELCOMES RUSSIA AS 'STRATEGIC' PARTNER. Thomas Enders, who is
    the German co-chief executive of the European aerospace firm EADS,
    which is primarily a Franco-German enterprise, has welcomed the
    Russian state's acquisition of a stake in the company, diewelt.de
    reported on October 23. Enders says cooperation with the Russian
    aerospace industry is of "strategic importance" for EADS. Russia's
    state-owned Vneshtorgbank recently confirmed it holds a stake of just
    over 5 percent in EADS, the parent company of Airbus. But German
    Chancellor Angela Merkel and the management of EADS, which seeks
    lucrative U.S. defense contracts, have blocked Russian plans to
    acquire blocking rights and a seat on the board (see "RFE/RL
    Newsline," September 20, and October 10, 11, and 13, 2006). He added
    that Russia is valuable to EADS not only as a market but as a source
    of "multifaceted experience in the development and construction of
    aircraft." Russia's new United Aircraft Company (OAK) seeks a strong
    foreign partnership to modernize Russia's moribund aerospace
    industry, which London's "The Times" recently described as a
    "glorious junkyard." PM

    U.S. SECRETARY OF STATE DISCUSSES IRAN, NORTH KOREA IN MOSCOW... U.S.
    Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice sought support from top Russian
    officials in Moscow on October 21 regarding the nuclear programs of
    North Korea and Iran, news agencies reported (see "RFE/RL Newsline,"
    October 18 and 19, 2006). But even before she arrived, Russian
    Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov repeated his opposition to tough
    sanctions against Iran. He told the Kuwaiti news agency KUNA that
    "any measures of influence should encourage creating conditions for
    talks." Lavrov added that "we won't be able to support and will
    oppose any attempts to use the Security Council to punish Iran or to
    use Iran's [nuclear] program [as an excuse] to promote the idea of
    regime change there." In addition to discussing North Korea, Rice
    appealed to Russia and Georgia to reduce the tension between their
    countries. PM

    ...AND MEETS WITH SLAIN JOURNALIST'S FAMILY. During her one-day
    Moscow visit on October 21, Secretary of State Rice gave an interview
    to "Novaya gazeta," the newspaper for which critical journalist
    Politkovskaya wrote before her recent murder, news agencies reported
    (see "RFE/RL Newsline," October 10, 11, 12, and 16, 2006). She also
    met with Politkovskaya's son. An unnamed senior U.S. State Department
    official told "The Moscow News" of October 23 that "we planned this
    not as a poke in the eye [of the Putin regime], but [as] an
    absolutely necessary and human step." The official also described the
    meeting with Politkovskaya's family as very emotional for Rice. She
    told reporters that "the fate of journalists in Russia is a major
    [U.S.] concern. Anna Politkovskaya was a particularly well-known and
    well-respected journalist, so I think it's important to note that."
    In a commentary on the case, London's "The Economist" wrote on
    October 14 that "whoever killed [Politkovskaya], Putin shares the
    blame for having made independent journalism both rare and
    perilous.... It is not there yet, but Russia sometimes seems to be
    heading towards fascism." PM

    HUNDREDS OF FOREIGN NGOS LEFT STRANDED. U.S. Secretary of State Rice
    also sought information in Moscow on October 21 about the fate of
    several hundred foreign NGOs, which are being forced under new
    legislation to reregister under highly complex and somewhat arbitrary
    rules in what is widely seen as an attempt to close many of the NGOs,
    news agencies reported (see "RFE/RL Newsline," September 21 and
    October 17 and 20, 2006). She said that "in some cases [the
    legislation] is being implemented in ways that is making it difficult
    for NGOs to operate, and so I think we have to go over that." U.S.
    Assistant Secretary of State Daniel Fried met with federal human
    rights ombudsman Vladimir Lukin to discuss the law and said later
    there had been progress. The "Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung"
    reported on October 21 that about 400 out of some 500 foreign NGOs
    have at least temporarily suspended their operations in Russia
    pending word from the authorities as to whether they have been
    reregistered. Many smaller NGOs have left Russia altogether, saying
    that the complex and drawn-out procedure exhausted their meager
    resources. Among the NGOs awaiting word of their fate are Amnesty
    International and Human Rights Watch, as well as the institutes
    linked to the two major U.S. political parties, namely the National
    Democratic Institute (NDI) and International Republican Institute
    (IRI). The Kremlin has linked those two institutes to the 2004 Orange
    Revolution in Ukraine and the 2003 Rose Revolution in Georgia. The
    German daily added that Foreign Minister Walter Steinmeier has
    contacted his colleague Lavrov to ensure that German NGOs are not
    subjected to arbitrary bureaucratic obstacles. PM

    EXTREMISTS WRECK GALLERY WITH 'COSMOPOLITAN' ART. Numerous
    ultranationalist young men ransacked Moscow's Gelman Gallery on
    October 21, "The Moscow News" reported on October 23. They beat owner
    Marat Gelman and destroyed paintings by the Georgian-born artist
    Aleksandr Dzhikia, as well as computers. Gelman later described the
    attack as "monstrous." The attackers divided into groups to perform
    specific tasks, the daily "Kommersant" noted. One day earlier, the
    artworks were en route to an exhibition in London when police took
    them off a plane at Sheremetyevo Airport. One collage showed a
    scantily clad President Putin frolicking in bed with a similarly
    dressed U.S. President George W. Bush and Osama bin Laden. An
    investigation into the attack is reportedly under way.
    Ultranationalists and other far-right extremists see the Gelman
    Gallery as "a hotbed of cosmopolitanism and anti-Russian values,"
    Vladimir Pribylovsky, president of the Panorama think tank, told the
    daily. "Cosmopolitanism" is a Stalin-era anti-Semitic term. Matthew
    Bown was transporting the 11 pieces of art from the gallery to his
    own gallery London when he was ordered off his plane and questioned
    by police. Officials confiscated the artwork, telling Bown he had
    been detained because several of the pieces "contain representations
    of heads of state." "Kommersant" described the incident with the
    headline: "Art Critics In Black Shirts." PM

    LAWSUIT BEING READIED OVER THEATER HOSTAGE INCIDENT. With Moscow set
    to mark the fourth anniversary on October 23 of the Dubrovka theater
    hostage taking by Chechen militants, relatives of those who died say
    they plan to sue officials for negligence, news agencies reported. At
    least 129 hostages and 42 militants died during a bungled rescue bid
    at the theater, where the musical "Nord-Ost" was playing. Tatyana
    Karpova, co-chairwoman of a group of former hostages and victims'
    relatives, said the authorities did not provide proper medical care
    to freed captives, among other alleged errors. The militants took
    about 800 people hostage, demanding Russia end the Chechen war. Three
    days later, special forces pumped a narcotic gas into the theater to
    knock out the hostage takers. Nearly all the victims died as a result
    of the effects of the gas. PM

    MAYORAL ELECTION IN FAR EAST CANCELLED. Electoral authorities in
    Dalnegorsk in Primorsky Krai decided on October 21 to drop plans to
    hold a mayoral run-off election the following day after the remaining
    candidates withdrew, Russian news agencies reported. The withdrawals
    came in response to popular anger following the murder of former
    mayor and prominent candidate Dmitry Fotyanov, (see "RFE/RL
    Newsline," October 19 and 20, 2006). He was one of at least two
    first-round candidates belonging to the pro-Kremlin Unified Russia
    party. In other news, in the central city of Samara on October 23,
    election officials announced that Viktor Tarkhov of the Party of Life
    defeated incumbent Mayor Georgy Limansky of Unified Russia in the
    mayoral race there the previous weekend, Russian news agencies
    reported. The Party of Life is one of three leftist parties that are
    joining together to form a Kremlin-sponsored "loyal opposition" for
    the 2007 parliamentary elections (see "RFE/RL Newsline," October 12,
    2006). PM

    NALCHIK RAID SUSPECT'S PRETRIAL DETENTION EXTENDED. Rasul Kudayev,
    who was detained on October 18 2005 on suspicion of having commanded
    one of the detachments of young militants who attacked police and
    security facilities in Nalchik five days earlier, is to remain in
    pretrial detention for a further six months, until April 17, 2007,
    according to kavkaz,memo.ru as reposted on October 20 by
    kavkazweb.net. The rationale cited for that decision was the need for
    further investigation in light of the "complicated" nature of his
    case. Kudayev was captured by U.S. forces in Afghanistan in 2001 and
    held for three years as Guantanamo Bay in Cuba before being released
    for lack of evidence. His relatives claim he is a semi-invalid and
    was not physically capable of participating in last year's attacks
    (see "RFE/RL Newsline," October 24, 2005). LF

    OSSETIAN YOUTH GROUP WARNS AGAINST ABUSE OF INTERNET. In an October
    22 statement posted on the independent website ingushetiya.ru, the
    Patriotic Union of Youth of North Ossetia expressed concern that the
    Internet is being abused in both North Ossetia and Ingushetia as a
    weapon in the dispute over rival territorial claims to North
    Ossetia's Prigorodny Raion. The statement appeals to unnamed "forces
    that are trying to destroy the fragile peace in the North Caucasus"
    to eschew "manifestations of nationalism, xenophobia, and hate
    speech." The union advocates transferring Prigorodny Raion to
    Ingushetia in order to end the dispute (see "RFE/RL Newsline," August
    16 and October 2, 2006). On October 20, ingushetiya.ru reported that
    Ingushetia's two largest Internet providers are blocking access to
    its site to users within that republic. LF

    END NOTE

    WILL MOSCOW FACE A COLD, DARK WINTER?

    By Roman Kupchinsky

    Last winter, the Ukrainians were left shivering after Russia
    cut off gas supplies. This year, there's a chance it could be the
    Russians feeling the freeze.
    There are concerns that domestically Russia's
    state-controlled gas monopoly Gazprom will be unable to supply
    electricity-generating companies with enough gas. If that happens, it
    could mean brownouts and blackouts this winter.
    Such a scenario nearly occurred last year. Mosenergo, the
    majority shareholder in Russia's Unified Energy Systems (EES)
    electricity monopoly, supplies electricity to the Moscow region.
    In the winter of 2005-2006, it was faced with a severe lack
    of gas to power its generating plants. Gazprom was forced to briefly
    limit supplies to Europe in order to keep the lights on in Moscow.
    EES head Anatoliy Chubais is concerned. He has placed the
    blame for the potential gas deficit squarely on Gazprom, which
    controls 25 percent of the world's gas reserves and 94 percent of
    Russia's natural gas. Chubais has said that Gazprom is unable or
    unwilling to supply generating companies in Russia with enough gas
    and this has forced them to buy more expensive diesel fuel to power
    their plants.
    In 2006 alone, the cost of diesel has risen by over 85
    percent, while the price consumers are charged for electricity has
    remained low.
    Gas shortages began during the winter of 2005-2006 and EES
    instructed its thermal-generation plants to switch to other fuels --
    diesel and coal. In the first eight months of 2006 the use of diesel
    increased by 35 percent and coal by 9 percent.
    According to Chubais, the gas shortage makes the present cost
    of diesel fuel equivalent to a price of $185 per 1,000 cubic meters
    of gas. EES buys gas from Gazprom at $46 per 1,000 cubic meters.
    Chubais told the "Vedomosti" business daily on September 28
    that when he met with Gazprom CEO Aleksei Miller to discuss this
    problem, Miller told him to switch to other fuels.
    EES is also buying electricity from abroad. In October, EES
    entered into negotiations with the Ukrainian Fuel and Energy Ministry
    to buy excess electricity. According to the October 2 issue of the
    "Kommersant" daily, EES has agreed to purchase from Ukraine some 6
    billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) to make up for expected shortfalls in
    the European part of Russia.
    Most experts agree that Russia's domestic gas shortage is due
    to Gazprom's paltry investments and the company's desire to expand in
    too many directions at once.
    With Gazprom's main gas fields running low, industry analysts
    say the company has not done enough to invest in exploration and
    development of new fields in the Yamal Peninsula. Instead, the
    company, which is $38 billion in debt, has concentrated on noncore
    activities such as buying into European energy companies. In
    September 2005, Gazprom spent $13 billion to buy oil giant Sibneft in
    order to transform itself into an integrated energy company.
    It looks like the Putin-Miller team might have overextended
    itself. Many analysts believe that Putin's promise in March to supply
    China with 30-35 billion cubic meters of gas by 2025 is unrealistic
    as is Gazprom's decision to develop the giant Shtokman gas field
    without the help of foreign partners.
    One possible solution to the gas deficit could be the
    liberalization of Russia's gas market -- something the European Union
    is pushing for.
    Chubais believes that the gas market should be liberalized
    along European lines and that Gazprom's pipelines be opened to
    independent gas producers. He says that the extra income generated by
    these reforms could be used to construct new underground gas storage
    facilities.
    In September, Russian Energy Minister Viktor Khristenko said
    that a liberalized gas market in Russia is possible and that it could
    encompass over 100 billion cubic meters of domestic gas sales.
    However, a liberalized gas market could cause consumer electricity
    prices to rise as it would spell the end of Gazprom's subsidized
    pricing system.
    The new Russian strategy to expand nuclear power generation
    could well be a feasible long-term solution to declining gas
    supplies, but in the meantime, residents of Moscow and St. Petersburg
    should brace themselves for a frosty winter.

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