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RFE/RL Iran Report - 10/23/2006

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  • RFE/RL Iran Report - 10/23/2006

    RADIO FREE EUROPE/RADIO LIBERTY, PRAGUE, CZECH REPUBLIC
    _________________________________________ ____________________
    RFE/RL Iran Report
    Vol. 9, No. 39, 23 October 2006

    A Review of Developments in Iran Prepared by the Regional Specialists
    of RFE/RL's Newsline Team

    ******************************************** ****************
    HEADLINES:
    * EXECUTIVE BRANCH SEEKS TO EXTEND CONTROL AS LOCAL ELECTIONS NEAR
    * EARLY DISQUALIFICATIONS FROM ASSEMBLY OF EXPERTS RACE
    * CANDIDATES REGISTER FOR PARLIAMENTARY BY-ELECTIONS
    * TEHRAN GETS NEW POLICE CHIEF
    * LEGISLATURE CONSIDERS CLOTHING
    * HEALTH MINISTER SAYS TENS OF THOUSANDS MIGHT BE HIV-INFECTED
    * NEW REFORMIST DAILY PUBLISHED...
    * ...AND SUSPENDED AFTER GOVERNMENT WARNING
    * STUDENTS PROTEST RESTRICTIONS
    * RUNAWAY GIRLS A GROWING PROBLEM
    * IRAN TOPS AGENDA AT ISRAEL-RUSSIA SUMMIT
    * TEHRAN PREDICTS IMPOSITION OF SANCTIONS
    * 'JERUSALEM DAY' COMMEMORATED IN IRAN
    * IRAN INVESTS HEAVILY IN LEBANESE RECONSTRUCTION
    * BAKU POLICE DISPERSE ANTI-IRANIAN DEMONSTRATION
    * NORWEGIAN COMPANY AGREES TO PAY FINE FOR BRIBING IRANIAN
    ****************************************** ******************

    EXECUTIVE BRANCH SEEKS TO EXTEND CONTROL AS LOCAL ELECTIONS NEAR.
    Iranian voters were enthusiastic about the country's first
    local-council elections almost eight years ago, but lower voter
    turnout in 2003 suggested waning interest. Disappointment arguably
    has stemmed from unmet expectations as limited powers and access to
    resources hampered the councils' work.
    Recent steps by Iran's executive branch to control who
    runs for the councils -- combined with previous efforts to further
    curb their powers -- suggest that voter participation might continue
    to fall despite their political significance.
    Registration for prospective candidates for December's
    third round of council elections began on October 16 and will
    continue until October 22.
    The races are not expected to attract the prominent names
    associated with national races -- such as the legislature or the
    Assembly of Experts. Nevertheless, some of those who have registered
    have achieved a modicum of recognition, including Mujtaba Alai,
    deputy head of the presidential protocol office, and Tehran police
    chief Morteza Talai, reported by Baztab on October 17 and the Iranian
    Students News Agency (ISNA) on October 9.
    The Interior Ministry conducts all the country's
    elections and, in most cases, it is the 12-member Guardians Council
    that vets prospective candidates and has supervisory powers. But it
    is the legislature that has supervisory and vetting powers in the
    municipal-council elections. This has previously given candidates who
    might be rejected on factional grounds a much better chance of
    qualifying.
    It became increasingly clear by late September, when the
    Central Committee for Monitoring Council Elections began its
    activities, that this firewall was crumbling. The central committee
    comprised five fundamentalist legislators: Tehran's Hussein
    Fadai, Islamabad-i Gharb's Heshmatollah Falahat-Pisheh,
    Malekan's Salman Khodadadi, Karaj's Rashid Jalali-Jafari, and
    Kerman's Mohammad Ali Movahedi. It selected 90 people from 27
    provinces to monitor the elections, and nearly all of them were
    fundamentalists.
    The committee claimed that it consulted with parliamentarians
    about their constituencies. But reformists said the choices were made
    when the legislature was in recess, and they were ignored. One
    lawmaker, Mohammad Reza Tabesh of Yazd Province, said he is the only
    legislator from his province who is not on the provincial monitoring
    committee, "Etemad-i Melli" reported on September 24.
    Only three of the 90 were from the pro-reform faction. They
    withdrew from the provincial monitoring committee a few days later,
    objecting to what they feared would be a biased screening of
    prospective candidates, "Etemad-i Melli" reported on September 26.

    Limiting Local Autonomy

    The municipal councils already have limited powers and
    responsibilities. They deal with issues like construction permits,
    garbage collection, and roadwork. The central government is
    responsible for everything else -- such as education, electricity,
    and the provision of water.
    President Mahmud Ahmadinejad's administration tried to
    reduce the powers even more through a new law on city and village
    councils. Under the amended law, the councils would be subordinate to
    the Interior Ministry and would require its approval before
    performing many of their functions.
    Councils also currently select mayors. But under the proposed
    law, the Interior Ministry would essentially perform that function.
    A member of the Tehran council, Hassan Bayadi, warned that
    the objective of the new law is to eliminate the councils completely,
    "Etemad" reported on May 23. Another legislator, Kazem Jalali, said
    the provisions of the law would run counter to the constitution,
    "Hambastegi" reported on June 1.
    With roughly two months to go before the elections, it
    appears that the law has been allowed to fade into the background.

    Co-opting Provincial Institutions

    President Ahmadinejad is doing other things that could weaken
    existing provincial government institutions and create new ones that
    are more closely connected to the executive branch. It is the
    presidential administration -- through the Interior Ministry -- that
    appoints provincial governors-general. On October 17, Ahmadinejad
    issued a directive that linked every provincial office of the
    Management and Planning Organization with the provincial
    governor-general. The head of the Management and Planning
    Organization, Farhad Rahbar, has objected to this development, and
    the legislature declared its intention to review the plan for any
    illegalities. If this measure is implemented, it will strengthen the
    Interior Ministry's hold over provincial affairs.
    Ahmadinejad's frequent trips to the provinces also serve
    to undermine municipal councils and other local institutions. As his
    staff collects citizens' written complaints and he deals with
    their problems on a case-by-case basis, the president shows that he
    can provide immediate relief and is a man of action. Already weakened
    through legislation and without the financial resources of the
    executive branch, the councils are stuck with the difficult task of
    developing macro-policies that help entire communities, not just one
    citizen.
    A spokesman for the Executives of Construction Party, Hussein
    Marashi, asked whether "the problems of our country [will] be solved
    by turning the national government into a mobile provincial planning
    council." He called that the administration's biggest
    achievement. But Marashi added that Iran must be the only place in
    the world where the central government takes on responsibilities that
    normally fall under the purview of the provinces, "Etemad-i Melli"
    reported on September 16.

    Whence And Whither?

    The concept of councils at the local level was enshrined in
    the Iranian Constitution of 1979. But the first council elections did
    not take place until 20 years later. Then-President Mohammad
    Khatami's administration sought to decentralize the state
    apparatus and increase public participation in political affairs and,
    in general, it emphasized the significance of the councils.
    Scholar Kian Tajbakhsh asserted at the August 2006 Conference
    on Iranian Studies in London that the reformists viewed the councils
    as civil-society organizations. But he noted that reformists did not
    clarify their agenda, address legal ambiguities, distinguish
    councils' responsibilities, or even place local institutions in
    the broader context of an authoritarian state. Tajbakhsh said
    "energy" for the local councils was closely connected with the wider,
    national reform movement. When that movement faded, he argued, so did
    local councils' momentum.
    Public disillusionment with the councils appears to have led
    to a sharp fall in voter turnout in 2003. The decline was most acute
    in major cities like Isfahan, Mashhad, Shiraz, and Tehran -- where
    turnout was between 12 percent and 20 percent. At the same time,
    reformists fared poorly in the big cities, although turnout in other
    parts of the country was around 50 percent.
    It would be reasonable to expect a continuing decline in
    official turnout figures if people reacted unfavorably to
    government-imposed restrictions. But three factors suggest it is too
    early to make such a prediction. First, the government controls the
    election process entirely, so outside observers will find it
    difficult to detect fraud. Indeed, a number of prominent Iranians
    remarked on the prevalence of fraud in the 2005 presidential
    election.
    Second, the holding of simultaneous elections -- for the
    councils, the Assembly of Experts, and four parliamentary seats -- is
    likely to increase overall turnout.
    Finally, the government is basing its population estimates on
    a 1996 census. The general manager of the Interior Ministry's
    elections office, Ali Asqar Karandish, said that population changes
    in big cities are far from clear, "Farhang-i Ashti" reported on
    September 21.
    Regardless of the final outcome, the Ahmadinejad
    administration is likely to continue its effort to extend and
    strengthen its control throughout the country. It has met some
    resistance from the legislature -- even from conservative
    parliamentarians -- but it has up to seven more years to keep trying.
    (Bill Samii)

    EARLY DISQUALIFICATIONS FROM ASSEMBLY OF EXPERTS RACE. Guardians
    Council spokesman Abbas Ali Kadkhodai announced on October 14 that
    three people signed up twice as candidates for the Assembly of
    Experts elections in mid-December, so the actual number of
    prospective candidates is 492, state television reported. An initial
    examination of credentials suggests that 60 people are in no way
    educationally or professionally qualified to be candidates, Kadkhodai
    added.
    Individuals whose religious learning is questioned will have
    the opportunity to take a written exam on October 27, and those who
    pass the test will be invited for interviews, he said. Kadkhodai
    explained that one need not be a cleric to stand in the election, as
    long as the candidate attains the desired level of ijtihad (the
    ability to interpret Islamic law).
    Turning to the race itself, Kadkhodai said that campaigning
    can begin once the names of candidates are published, and candidates
    who are Friday prayer leaders cannot lead official congregations in
    the two weeks immediately prior to the election date of December 15.
    (Bill Samii)

    CANDIDATES REGISTER FOR PARLIAMENTARY BY-ELECTIONS. When registration
    closed on October 13, 246 people had signed up as candidates in four
    parliamentary by-elections in Iran slated for December 15, the
    Iranian Labor News Agency (ILNA) reported on October 15. The
    by-elections will be held for two seats in Tehran, one in the
    southwestern city of Ahvaz, and one in the southeastern city of Bam.
    (Bill Samii)

    TEHRAN GETS NEW POLICE CHIEF. Brigadier General Ahmad Reza Radan has
    been selected as the new police chief in Tehran, the Islamic Republic
    News Agency (IRNA) reported on October 19, citing the daily "Seda-yi
    Edalat." Radan served previously as a police chief in Khorasan Razavi
    Province.
    Radan succeeds Morteza Talai, who resigned recently. There
    are conflicting reports about the resignation -- either he did so to
    run as a candidate for upcoming local council elections or to protest
    the violent arrest of a Tehran cleric and his supporters,
    RFE/RL's Radio Farda reported on October 16 (see "RFE/RL Iran
    Report," October 16, 2006).
    Fars news agency reported on October 9 that Talai resigned,
    as required by the law, to become a candidate for municipal elections
    in December. However, a letter cited by Radio Farda from a deputy
    head of the Intelligence Ministry to the head of clerical affairs at
    the office of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei that was
    reportedly published on October 15, states that Talai had threatened
    to resign if the state acted against Ayatollah Hussein
    Kazemeyni-Borujerdi, who differs with the regime over religious
    affairs.
    Separately, one of Kazemeyni-Borujerdi's followers, who
    was arrested and then released on October 10, told Radio Farda on
    October 16 that "we have no accurate reports of Mr. Borujerdi's
    situation," though authorities have interrogated his supporters and
    told them to shun the cleric. Muhaddaseh Saberi told Radio Farda that
    "in the interrogations they presented Mr. Borujerdi as a corrupt
    individual." (Bill Samii, Vahid Sepehri)

    LEGISLATURE CONSIDERS CLOTHING. The Iranian legislature has begun
    serious debate over a number of issues related to clothing, "Etemad"
    reported on October 12. The topics range from a national dress code
    to mandatory uniforms in the workplace to the protection of the
    domestic clothing industry. "The parliament's view is that
    fashion and clothing graduates and manufacturers and the private
    sector should embark on the design and production of varied clothes
    themselves with support from the government in the form of
    subsidies," legislator Fatemeh Alia told "Etemad. This should be
    based on the country's Islamic and ethnic identity, she added.
    Alia said the presence of ethnic groups will contribute to diversity
    and people can choose for themselves. Laleh Eftekhari, a
    representative from Tehran, also stressed that homogeneity is not
    being considered.
    The legislature passed two articles of a bill relating to
    fashion and clothing on October 10, "Jomhuri-yi Islami" reported the
    next day. One article is aimed at discouraging people from adopting
    foreign fashions that are incompatible with Iran's national and
    Islamic culture and encouraging them to buy locally produced clothes
    that are based on domestic patterns. Various ministries, state radio
    and television, and designers and manufacturers' guilds will form
    a committee to consider ways to accomplish that task. (Bill Samii)

    HEALTH MINISTER SAYS TENS OF THOUSANDS MIGHT BE HIV-INFECTED. Kamran
    Baqeri-Lankarani said in Tehran on October 15 that his ministry has
    identified more than 13,000 Iranians as infected with HIV, the virus
    that causes AIDS, but that the real figure for infections is likely
    between 60,000-70,000 "in the worst-case scenario," IRNA reported. He
    said AIDS is still a disease restricted to specific groups in the
    country, but "if we do not act against it with care, it could become
    a generalized disease." He said that even the highest estimate for
    infections "is not so [high] compared to many neighboring countries."
    He added that more state money is needed for HIV and flu-related
    treatments in the country, amid the rising price of some
    pharmaceutical products. (Vahid Sepehri)

    NEW REFORMIST DAILY PUBLISHED... A new daily, "Ruzegar" (Times), was
    published on October 16 and is seen as an unofficial successor to the
    banned reformist daily "Sharq," which was closed on September 11,
    Reuters and AFP reported. The daily's managing editor is Farzaneh
    Kharqani, and members of the former "Sharq" staff are working on the
    new daily, although they are "none of the well-known faces," Reuters
    reported, citing Mohammad Atrianfar, a former member of the "Sharq"
    policymaking board.
    Separately, ILNA reported on October 16 that three
    journalists were arrested "last week" at the offices of their
    Kurdish-language weekly, "Rujheh Halat." It reported that agents with
    a court order arrested Farhad Aminpur, Reza Alipur, and Saman
    Suleimani, without specifying why they were arrested or where the
    publication is based.
    On October 17, Justice Minister Jamal Karimi-Rad assured ISNA
    that the government is not trying to curb "critical" media but wants
    them to observe the government's "conduct" and "generosity" and
    "return to their true position and mission." He said unnamed domestic
    media have been "unkind" to the Ahmadinejad government, and "some of
    the opinions of government critics are baseless." (Vahid Sepehri)

    ....AND SUSPENDED AFTER GOVERNMENT WARNING. A new daily newspaper in
    Iran has suspended its publication just three days into its print run
    after the Islamic Culture and Guidance Ministry told it that it could
    not cover political news. Many of the "Ruzgar" (Times) employees were
    former contributors to a leading reformist daily, "Sharq," that
    authorities shut down in September.
    Officials' quick intervention has fueled suspicion that
    they simply won't tolerate a moderate voice on Iranian
    newsstands.
    The ministry's warning came in a letter that said the
    "Ruzgar" license does not include political coverage and thus
    prohibits it from publishing political news.
    In the face of that threat, its managers decided to suspend
    publication after just three issues.
    Iran's ILNA news agency excerpted the ministry's
    letter on October 18 and reported that "Ruzgar" would begin appearing
    without political coverage. But ILNA soon removed the story from its
    website and said it should not be used.
    A "Ruzgar" editor, Abdolreza Tajik, told AFP that the
    decision to suspend publication was made after warnings to avoid
    politics and to change the newspaper's format.
    "Ruzgar" politics staffer Mohammad Atrianfar accused the
    Culture Ministry of "tightening the noose [on] reformists." He said
    that at least two other conservative papers with similar licenses,
    "Hamshahri" and "Jam-i Jam," cover political events.Atrianfar headed
    the policymaking committee of the now-defunct reformist daily
    "Sharq," and he noted that authorities still have not announced legal
    reasons for that newspaper's closure.

    Beleaguered Existence

    The "Ruzgar" launch had been characterized as the entry of a
    moderate daily to a market that has witnessed many closures. More
    than 100 reformist and moderate publications have been shut down by
    Iranian authorities in recent years.
    Mashallah Shamsolvaezin, a prominent journalist and former
    editor of four banned dailies, is also a spokesman for the Society to
    Defend Press Freedom. He tells RFE/RL that the targeting of "Ruzgar"
    demonstrates that powerful conservatives will not tolerate criticism
    or dissent.
    "Our friends should have come to the conclusion by now that
    [conservatives] are opposed to the intellectual current of
    'Sharq' and 'Ruzgar' and not to their mastheads.
    Conservatives are only satisfied with a single-voice media that is
    led by the establishment, so they will fight any effort to bring
    different voices to the media. One example is the fact that they
    couldn't even tolerate the very moderate publications
    'Sharq' and 'Ruzgar.'"
    "Ruzgar" was launched as a 24-page color daily.
    Representatives had insisted it was not meant to be a substitute for
    "Sharq." But just weeks before its launch, a conservative daily
    reported that "Sharq" was returning to publication under the new
    title "Ruzgar."

    Selective Enforcement

    A moderate news website, roozna.ir, has cast doubt on the
    ministry's claim, saying Iran's press law allows newspapers
    with cultural and social content to publish two pages of political
    news. Roozna.ir adds that "Ruzgar" appears to have been deprived of
    that right.
    Reza Moini is an Iran specialist with French media watchdog
    Reporters Without Borders (RSF). He describes the Culture
    Ministry's order against "Ruzgar" as an excuse to prevent
    journalists from doing their work, and says it comes amid increasing
    pressure on reporters.
    "[On October 18] we said in a statement about three other
    publications whose journalists have been harassed that the Islamic
    republic uses all the possibilities and tools at its disposal to
    prevent publications and journalists from expressing themselves
    freely," Moini says. "[The "Ruzgar"] case is the same. The excuse
    that the publication should not have political pages is really
    laughable."
    RSF notes that six journalists have been arrested in Iran in
    recent weeks. It accuses Iranian authorities of shutting down media
    that "do not defend the government's vision of the Islamic
    revolution" and arresting journalists "without warrants and without
    reason."

    Chilling Stories

    Moini tells RFE/RL that state pressure on journalists is
    resulting in harassment and self-censorship.
    "When they arrest a journalist and then put him under
    interrogation and then free him on a heavy bail -- but he can be sent
    back to prison at any time -- how can he work?" Moini asks. "There
    isn't only self-censorship -- this is imposed censorship."
    Iran's government denies that it censors the media and
    says it welcomes criticism.
    Officials have not yet reacted to the suspension of the
    "Ruzgar" print run, and the daily's managers have not said
    whether it will return.
    The European Union roundly criticized Tehran as recently as
    October 5 for closing newspapers and harassing journalists. (Golnaz
    Esfandiari)

    STUDENTS PROTEST RESTRICTIONS. Students from Tehran's Amir Kabir
    University, formerly known as the Polytechnic, protested perceived
    pressure on students and dissidents in Iran and the three-week
    detention of Kayvan Ansari, a former member of the university's
    Islamic Students Association, RFE/RL's Radio Farda and ISNA
    reported on October 16 and 17. Protesters called for the release of
    political and student prisoners, and the suspension of the Basij
    association in the university, Radio Farda reported. Basijis are
    members of a militia affiliated with Iran's Revolutionary Guards
    Corps.
    A student identified only as Qaragozlu told ISNA on October
    16 that "they may have damaged the buildings of the Islamic
    association" of students, referring to unspecified agents, "and as
    they say the...association has no headquarters; but if they want to
    continue like this, we shall gather in the university and stop them.
    This is the Polytechnic, and we will not let them do [whatever] they
    like."
    Former student Ahmad Batebi has returned to prison after a
    short leave, his father told RFE/RL's Radio Farda on October 17,
    adding that his son is unwell and "wasting away" in prison. Batebi
    was jailed for participating in 1999 student demonstrations in
    Tehran. His father said rights groups have done nothing to win his
    release, and the judiciary has told the family that Batebi must
    remain in prison for 15 years. "Our lives have been destroyed and my
    son is wasting away...we are stuck in a place where nobody...is
    accountable," he said.
    Separately, a court in Zanjan, northwestern Iran, sentenced
    former student Reza Abbasi to a year's imprisonment for allegedly
    insulting Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Radio Farda reported
    on October 17. Activist Abdullah Momeni told the broadcaster that
    Abbasi has been detained since late June on a temporary arrest
    warrant for taking part in demonstrations by Iranian Azeri-speakers
    (see "RFE/RL Iran Report," May 29, 2006). A
    Tehran court has also fined former Yazd University student
    Mohammad Reza Rahimi for insulting state officials and ordered that
    he be given 30 lashes for insulting a Yazd University security guard
    when he was a student there, ISNA reported on October 17.
    Human Rights Watch (HRW) on October 19 called on the Iranian
    government to immediately cease restricting student activists'
    attendance at universities, hrw.org reported. In a report titled
    "Denying the Right to Education," HRW noted that the government has
    barred 12 students, and that another 54 were allowed to resume going
    to school only after pledging not to engage in political activities.
    HRW asserted that the Ministry of Intelligence and Security is behind
    the campaign, and in the last year the judiciary has given more than
    20 students prison sentences. Another 32 students have been suspended
    by their universities, and 10 student associations have been banned
    or suspended.
    As the repression of student activists continues, Supreme
    Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei met with top-grade students in Tehran
    on October 17. He told them that while restlessness is a part of
    student life, "politicization" is "not approved" among student
    formations, ISNA reported. "Politicization and political games are
    not approved, but an inclination for politics and to win the power of
    political understanding and analysis is a...necessity among students
    and universities," he said. He urged student formations "relying on
    Islam and Islamic teachings" not to "weaken" each other.
    Clearly, he said, "the enemy is investing on some student
    currents, and America and Israel's espionage services are even
    ready to help student formations affiliated with the masses and
    left-wing currents, whose presence is now meaningless with the
    collapse" of communist states. Western enemies, he said, are trying
    "by all possible means and under various names like royalists and
    others" to harm "genuine student currents," ISNA reported. (Vahid
    Sepehri, Bill Samii)

    RUNAWAY GIRLS A GROWING PROBLEM. Iranian newspapers have carried an
    increasing number of reports about runaway girls over the last few
    years, Radio Farda reported on October 19, and female police officers
    are tasked with dealing with these girls in the environs of the
    shrine of Imam Reza in Mashhad. Many of the girls sleep in the open,
    Radio Farda reported, and some have taken to prostitution. It was
    reported that some girls as young as 9 years old have been found as
    runaways. (Bill Samii)

    IRAN TOPS AGENDA AT ISRAEL-RUSSIA SUMMIT. Israeli Prime Minister Ehud
    Olmert and Russian President Vladimir Putin discussed Iran and a
    variety of issues related to the Middle East on October 18,
    international media reported. Olmert said that heading the agenda was
    "everything connected to the Iranian problem, which bothers
    everyone." He hailed Putin and recalled the promise Putin made last
    year that Russia's relations in the Middle East will no longer be
    one-sided. For his part, Putin said the relations between the two
    countries are based on mutual trust. He added that "in recent years,
    relations between the Russian Federation and Israel have acquired an
    entirely new quality.... We have fundamentally changed our attitude
    to our compatriots -- we think of them as our compatriots -- who
    moved to Israel for permanent residence from Russia and the former
    republics of the Soviet Union."
    Olmert's hosts also included Defense Minister Sergei
    Ivanov and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, who said that Iran poses
    no immediate threat. Israel is pushing for sanctions against Iran
    over Tehran's nuclear programs while Russia opposes the move.
    Olmert argued that "if the leader of such a country as Iran openly
    states that he wants to destroy our country, we have no choice but to
    prepare for a response." For his part, Putin said that "the situation
    requires all parties to show responsibility and restraint. Only a
    just and comprehensive settlement accepted by all peoples in the
    region can be reliable and long-lasting."
    Foreign Minister Lavrov said in Moscow on October 18 that "it
    is necessary [for the international community] to act on Iran, but
    that action should be in direct proportion to what is really
    happening," RIA-Novosti reported. He added that "what is really
    happening is what the IAEA reports to us. And the IAEA is not
    reporting to us about the presence there of a threat to peace and
    security."
    Elsewhere, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Kislyak told
    Interfax that Russia's position in the UN Security Council on
    Iran will not be influenced by the U.S. sanctions against
    Russia's main arms exporter, Rosoboroneksport, and the aircraft
    manufacturer Sukhoi. He said that "these are two separate, serious
    issues. We will tackle them separately." His remarks appeared to
    contradict somewhat recent statements by Russian UN Ambassador Vitaly
    Churkin linking the two issues. (Patrick Moore)

    TEHRAN PREDICTS IMPOSITION OF SANCTIONS. Expediency Council Secretary
    Mohsen Rezai said in Tehran on October 16 that he considers the
    imposition of "mild" sanctions against Iran over its nuclear program
    "not unlikely" in the coming weeks, ISNA reported. But he added that
    China, Russia, and "even Western states" might not enforce them. He
    said the permanent members of the Security Council and Germany are
    agreed on "some form of mild sanctions...like those approved for
    North Korea, which does not include an oil embargo or foreign
    exchange revenues." Sanctions, he said, would be "symbolic" and aimed
    at maintaining U.S. prestige, since Iran has effectively pushed the
    United States to a "dead-end" with its resistance. "I think
    [sanctions] will not be successful," Rezai said, adding that they
    would likely last but a few months. "A hesitant resolution will be
    issued imposing sanctions...on the one hand, and insisting on the
    continuation of talks on the other," ISNA reported. He said Iran has
    withstood worse sanctions and would change its trading partners.
    Kamal Daneshyar, the head of the parliament's Energy
    Committee, said in the southwestern Ahvaz on October 16 that "oil
    sanctions against Iran are like oil sanctions on consumer countries,"
    ISNA reported. Iran would suffer, he admitted, but the sanctioning
    countries "that are mostly consumer countries" would suffer "10 times
    as much." He said if Iran's 2.5 million barrels of oil per day
    are taken out of the global market, "it is true that Iran no longer
    has oil revenues, but the price of oil will rise to $150 a barrel."
    Iran, he said, could meet its own needs "through domestic production"
    and would "guide society toward self-sufficiency."
    EU foreign ministers met in Luxembourg on October 17 and were
    reportedly ready to back the imposition of sanctions, described by
    news agencies as mild and incremental, on Iran in response to its
    refusal to end sensitive nuclear-fuel-making activities, Reuters
    reported. EU External Relations Commissioner Benita Ferrero-Waldner
    was quoted as saying that Iran must see that there is a united
    international response to its contested program, although a Spanish
    official said sanctions will be "gradual," as Iran remains an EU oil
    supplier, Reuters reported.
    U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said on October 16
    in Washington that the UN Security Council will "begin to work this
    week on an Iran sanctions resolution," AFP reported. Rice said Iran
    and North Korea are two countries "that violate their pledges to
    respect the [Nuclear] Nonproliferation Treaty."
    EU High Representative for Common Foreign and Security Policy
    Javier Solana said in Luxembourg before the October 17 meeting that
    the doors to talks with Iran remain open and there is "always hope"
    that negotiations might resume, AFP reported.
    EU foreign ministers stated in Luxemburg on October 17 that
    they feel obliged to support incremental UN sanctions on Iran for its
    refusal to curb its nuclear activities in line with Western demands,
    agencies reported on October 17 and 18. Iran and the EU have been
    talking for months as the EU has sought to persuade Iran to abandon
    nuclear fuel-making activities -- which can also be used to make
    nuclear bombs -- in return for economic incentives. In rejecting this
    deal, Iran "leaves us no choice but to take the Security Council
    route," Reuters quoted French Foreign Minister Philippe Douste-Blazy
    as saying. He proposed "gradual, reversible measures proportionate to
    Iranian actions." EU officials have said they are not ruling out the
    resumption of talks.
    Iran's top nuclear negotiator, Ali Larijani, immediately
    reacted to the move and said the EU would lose, not Iran. Larijani
    said in Tehran on October 18 that a UN Security Council resolution
    against Iran would radicalize the situation and jeopardize Iranian
    cooperation, Reuters reported. He said the "carrot-and-stick policy
    is a failed policy." He told Mehr "if they want flexibility, real and
    effective flexibility will never come out of talks under pressure."
    Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Mohammad Ali Husseini said
    in Tehran on October 18 that the EU foreign ministers' statement
    announcing Europe's decision to back sanctions is unrealistic,
    and any move to undermine the "effectiveness" of "responsible bodies"
    like the IAEA would hamper the resolution of the dispute, IRNA
    reported. He said Iran will defend its rights using "legal and
    political channels," and has no doubt it is on the "right path" and
    has an "evident right to utilize nuclear energy for peaceful
    purposes."
    Separately, the head of the parliament's National
    Security and Foreign Policy Committee, Alaedin Borujerdi, told ISNA
    on October 18 that the EU statement and Iran's comparison with
    "other countries" is "unacceptable and unjust," and shows Europe is
    "submitting" to "political pressure" by the United States. He said
    Iran is presently ready for more talks on its dossier, but if this is
    "taken toward sanctions," inspections of Iranian installations by
    IAEA inspectors "will no longer be a possibility," ISNA reported.
    (Vahid Sepehri)

    'JERUSALEM DAY' COMMEMORATED IN IRAN. People across Iran
    participated in Qods (Jerusalem) Day rallies on October 20, news
    agencies reported. The previous day, President Mahmud Ahmadinejad
    said in the Tehran Province town of Islamshahr that "the existence of
    the Quds-occupying regime" is the biggest problem facing mankind,
    state television reported. "It is a bogus regime.... It is the root
    of discrimination, oppression, and bullying in the world." He added
    "We have said repeatedly and our nation has said repeatedly that this
    regime is illegitimate in its very foundation; it is forged, it has
    been imposed on nations of the region and it cannot survive." After
    ranting in this vein and then flinging accusations at the United
    States for its support of Israel, Ahmadinejad turned to the nuclear
    issue and said Iran will not forsake its perceived rights. (Bill
    Samii)

    IRAN INVESTS HEAVILY IN LEBANESE RECONSTRUCTION. Hesam Khoshnevis,
    who heads an Iranian delegation to Lebanon, announced in Beirut on
    October 13 that Iran will build 60 schools in the southern suburbs of
    Beirut and another 40 in the Bekaa Valley, IRNA reported. Those are
    two areas predominantly inhabited by Shi'ite Muslims and
    controlled by Hizballah. Khoshnevis added that Iran will equip the
    schools. Khoshnevis went on to say that five hospitals in southern
    Beirut, four in the Bekaa, and 10 more in the south are being built
    by Iran. Iran is rebuilding mosques, Husseiniehs (Shi'ite
    religious centers), and other religious structures in Beirut, the
    Bekaa, and the south, as well as roads and bridges. The total cost,
    Khoshnevis said, will be $35 million-$50 million.
    In Tehran on October 13, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali
    Khamenei discussed Lebanese affairs in his Friday Prayers sermon,
    state radio reported. He said the United States suffered a defeat in
    the July-August conflict between Israel and Hizballah. Khamenei said
    the conflict teaches a lesson: "Nations have once again seen and
    experienced that the path of victory and liberation is only in
    resistance against the bullies, the aggressors and the despots."
    Retaliation for the alleged defeat in this conflict will include the
    creation of ethnic strife, Khamenei warned. (Bill Samii)

    BAKU POLICE DISPERSE ANTI-IRANIAN DEMONSTRATION. Azerbaijani police
    forcibly dispersed on October 13 some 30 demonstrators near the
    Iranian Embassy in Baku, Turan reported. The demonstration was
    organized to protest Iran's "suppression of the cultural and
    national rights" of ethnic Azeris and to campaign for Azeri-language
    education for the Azeri minority in Iran. Police detained around 10
    participants in the protest. Baku police broke up a similar
    demonstration late last month in front of the Iranian embassy.
    (Richard Giragosian)

    NORWEGIAN COMPANY AGREES TO PAY FINE FOR BRIBING IRANIAN. The
    Norwegian oil company Statoil announced on October 13 that it will
    pay a $21 million fine for violating the U.S. Foreign Corrupt
    Practices Act after it bribed an Iranian official and failed to
    properly account for the payment in its bookkeeping, Radio Farda
    reported. The statement acknowledged payment of bribes to an Iranian
    official in 2002 and 2003 so he would help the company win contracts
    for the development of three phases of the South Pars gas field.
    Statoil will pay fines of $10.5 million to the U.S. Securities and
    Exchange Commission and $10.5 million to the U.S. Justice Department,
    but $3 million in fines paid to the Norwegian government will be
    subtracted from the total.
    The case relates to Statoil's $15.2 million deal with
    Horton Investments, a London-based consulting company associated with
    Mehdi Hashemi, the managing director of the Organization for
    Optimization of Energy Consumption, which is a subsidiary of the
    National Iranian Oil Company. Hashemi is the son of former Iranian
    President Ali-Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani (see "RFE/RL Iran Report,"
    September 22 and 29, October 6, 13, and 27, and November 10, 2003,
    and 5 July 2004). (Bill Samii)

    ****************************************** ***************
    Copyright (c) 2006. RFE/RL, Inc. All rights reserved.

    The "RFE/RL Iran Report" is a weekly prepared by A. William Samii on
    the basis of materials from RFE/RL broadcast services, RFE/RL
    Newsline, and other news services. It is distributed every Monday.

    Direct comments to A. William Samii at [email protected].
    For information on reprints, see:
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