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WHY RUSSIA IS REALLY WEAK
Kavkaz Center, Turkey
19.09.2006
News stories about Russia these days follow a predictable theme. The
country is resurgent and strong, and the West must adjust to this
new reality.
But that story line is wrong. Russia is weak and getting weaker.
Take the conventional index of power-military might.
Yes, Moscow is testing advanced missiles systems and talks buoyantly
about countering a U.S. antiballistic-missile system with a
new generation of warheads that can evade interceptors. Yet
note the failure earlier this month of the highly touted Bulava
submarine-launched missile. The United States experiences such mishaps,
too, of course. But in Russia they are signs of something deeper. It's
no secret that, for all Russia's new oil wealth, its Army remains
poorly trained, malnourished and demoralized.
Alcoholism, suicide and corruption are rife. Weaponry is aging and
newer models arrive at a trickle: India has bought more Russian tanks
since 2001 than the Russian Army.
Russia gets credit for economic growth-nearly 7 percent this year,
according to the IMF. But the boom has been propelled mainly by rising
energy prices.
What happens when-not if-oil and gas prices begin to retreat? New
investment in production capacity is insufficient to sustain current
levels of exports.
Meanwhile, economic reform has stalled, state control over strategic
economic industries has increased and foreign investment remains
low. Of the 8.1 billion in foreign investment worldwide in 2004, only
.6 billion went to Russia. Not surprisingly, Russia rates poorly in
globalization rankings. The 2005 Foreign Policy/A.T. Kearney survey
placed it 52nd in a list of 62 countries-a drop of five places
from 2004.
Russia's human capital is being ravaged. The population is declining
by some 750,000 annually because of low birthrates and unusually high
death rates among males; it's also aging rapidly and will therefore
become increasingly less productive.
Alcoholism remains pervasive, as does drug use. Russia has the highest
rate of tuberculosis in Europe. AIDS has yet to crest. Suicide is
one the rise. According to WHO data on 46 countries between 1998
and 2003, Russia, with 71 cases per 100,000 of the male population,
topped the list.
A nation's power also rests on the strength of its institutions. Here,
too, Russia is growing weaker.
Putin's authoritarianism has brought order to a once chaotic political
scene. But Parliament has been neutered. So have independent civic
organizations, political parties and media. The secret police,
military and security services-no friends of the rule of law-occupy
prominent political positions. Official corruption flourishes.
Abroad, Russia's influence continues to ebb. Its closest
allies-Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan-are poor and politically
unstable.
Energy-rich Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan resent Russia's grip on
their exports. Armenia, loyal but penurious, remains embroiled in the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict with increasingly prosperous Azerbaijan. The
Kremlin's meddling in Georgia has deepened Tblisi's determination
to join NATO and strengthened anti-Russian sentiment. Belarus's
dictatorial president envisions union with Russia, but his Soviet-style
political order repels many ordinary Russians.
On the wider global stage, Putin displays seeming strength and new
confidence. Russian support is key to the negotiations over Iran's
nuclear program. Its Security Council veto gives it an important say
on various international issues, from Kosovo's independence to the
United Nations peacekeeping force in Lebanon. Yet Putin's rhetoric
increasingly strikes themes of Great Russia-imperial, nostalgic,
nationalistic. However much it resonates with a particular Russian
political class, that rhetoric can itself breed weakness.
You see this in the sharp rise of race-related hate crimes in Russia,
most recently the clash between Russian xenophobes and Chechens
in the north- western town of Kondopga, when a bar brawl triggered
huge rallies of ultranationalists demanding the expulsion of ethnic
minorities. Right-wing racism and Russia-for-Russians chauvinism augur
ill for a multiethnic, multiconfessional Russia, which has near 25
million Muslims.
Kavkaz Center, Turkey
19.09.2006
News stories about Russia these days follow a predictable theme. The
country is resurgent and strong, and the West must adjust to this
new reality.
But that story line is wrong. Russia is weak and getting weaker.
Take the conventional index of power-military might.
Yes, Moscow is testing advanced missiles systems and talks buoyantly
about countering a U.S. antiballistic-missile system with a
new generation of warheads that can evade interceptors. Yet
note the failure earlier this month of the highly touted Bulava
submarine-launched missile. The United States experiences such mishaps,
too, of course. But in Russia they are signs of something deeper. It's
no secret that, for all Russia's new oil wealth, its Army remains
poorly trained, malnourished and demoralized.
Alcoholism, suicide and corruption are rife. Weaponry is aging and
newer models arrive at a trickle: India has bought more Russian tanks
since 2001 than the Russian Army.
Russia gets credit for economic growth-nearly 7 percent this year,
according to the IMF. But the boom has been propelled mainly by rising
energy prices.
What happens when-not if-oil and gas prices begin to retreat? New
investment in production capacity is insufficient to sustain current
levels of exports.
Meanwhile, economic reform has stalled, state control over strategic
economic industries has increased and foreign investment remains
low. Of the 8.1 billion in foreign investment worldwide in 2004, only
.6 billion went to Russia. Not surprisingly, Russia rates poorly in
globalization rankings. The 2005 Foreign Policy/A.T. Kearney survey
placed it 52nd in a list of 62 countries-a drop of five places
from 2004.
Russia's human capital is being ravaged. The population is declining
by some 750,000 annually because of low birthrates and unusually high
death rates among males; it's also aging rapidly and will therefore
become increasingly less productive.
Alcoholism remains pervasive, as does drug use. Russia has the highest
rate of tuberculosis in Europe. AIDS has yet to crest. Suicide is
one the rise. According to WHO data on 46 countries between 1998
and 2003, Russia, with 71 cases per 100,000 of the male population,
topped the list.
A nation's power also rests on the strength of its institutions. Here,
too, Russia is growing weaker.
Putin's authoritarianism has brought order to a once chaotic political
scene. But Parliament has been neutered. So have independent civic
organizations, political parties and media. The secret police,
military and security services-no friends of the rule of law-occupy
prominent political positions. Official corruption flourishes.
Abroad, Russia's influence continues to ebb. Its closest
allies-Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan-are poor and politically
unstable.
Energy-rich Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan resent Russia's grip on
their exports. Armenia, loyal but penurious, remains embroiled in the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict with increasingly prosperous Azerbaijan. The
Kremlin's meddling in Georgia has deepened Tblisi's determination
to join NATO and strengthened anti-Russian sentiment. Belarus's
dictatorial president envisions union with Russia, but his Soviet-style
political order repels many ordinary Russians.
On the wider global stage, Putin displays seeming strength and new
confidence. Russian support is key to the negotiations over Iran's
nuclear program. Its Security Council veto gives it an important say
on various international issues, from Kosovo's independence to the
United Nations peacekeeping force in Lebanon. Yet Putin's rhetoric
increasingly strikes themes of Great Russia-imperial, nostalgic,
nationalistic. However much it resonates with a particular Russian
political class, that rhetoric can itself breed weakness.
You see this in the sharp rise of race-related hate crimes in Russia,
most recently the clash between Russian xenophobes and Chechens
in the north- western town of Kondopga, when a bar brawl triggered
huge rallies of ultranationalists demanding the expulsion of ethnic
minorities. Right-wing racism and Russia-for-Russians chauvinism augur
ill for a multiethnic, multiconfessional Russia, which has near 25
million Muslims.