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ARMENIA: PICKING UP THE PIECES
International Crisis Group
http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id =5385&l=1
April 8 2008
Belgium
Armenia's flawed presidential election, the subsequent lethal crackdown
against a peaceful protest rally, the introduction of a state of
emergency and extensive arrests of opposition supporters have brought
the country to its deepest crisis since the war against Azerbaijan
over Nagorno-Karabakh ended in 1994. The situation deprives Serzh
Sarkisian, scheduled to be inaugurated as president on 9 April 2008,
of badly needed legitimacy and handicaps prospects for much needed
democratic reform and resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict
alike. Unless the U.S., EU and others with significant diplomatic
leverage over the regime in Yerevan exert pressure, Armenia is
unlikely to make progress on either. The Sarkisian administration
must urgently seek credible dialogue with the opposition, release
prisoners detained on political grounds, stop arrests and harassment
of the opposition and lift all measures limiting freedom of assembly
and expression. Unless steps are taken to address the political crisis,
the U.S. and EU should suspend foreign aid and put on hold negotiations
on further and closer cooperation.
On 1 March 2008, police and security troops broke up a peaceful
demonstration that had been going on continuously in Yerevan's Liberty
Square to protest the announced official result of the 19 February
presidential election. Clashes with demonstrators intensified later
in the day, and the violence, involving firearms, arson and looting,
left seven civilians and one police officer dead.
More than 450 people were reportedly injured, including several dozen
police and troops.
Outgoing President Robert Kocharian reacted by declaring a sweeping
twenty-day state of emergency, which suspended many basic civil
rights and temporarily banned independent media reporting. The
authorities used the claim that an attempt, involving a vague
"international conspiracy", had been made to topple the government
as justification for arresting over 100 opposition figures. Though
the state of emergency was officially lifted on 21 March, President
Kocharian signed a new law into effect four days earlier placing new
controls on political manifestations.
Sarkisian, prime minister since 2007, is Kocharian's hand-picked
successor, but questions about his election and its violent aftermath
will undermine his authority. The 19 February election was marred
by serious irregularities, and the subsequent use of excessive force
and wide arrests by the authorities has caused a deep rift in society.
Unless opposition figures are freed, dialogue resumed and justice
pursued, this division will deepen.
Armenia's democracy has in most respects been in retreat for over a
decade. Some constitutional and legal reforms have been undertaken,
but they are mostly formalistic and the exception. The rule has been
flawed elections, concentration of power in the hands of the executive,
an army and security services which enjoy virtual impunity, a court
system subservient to and manipulated by the government, and increased
government censorship and control of key media outlets. Though the
economy has performed relatively well and poverty has decreased,
corruption and cronyism still seriously restrict sustainable,
equitable growth.
Armenia needs to address the electoral violence as well as more
fundamental questions regarding the country's governance. If the
incoming presidency takes the right course, the EU and U.S. need to
help foster reconciliation and deeper institutional reform. Their
reaction to the flawed election and lethal crackdown, however,
has been inadequate. The international community needs to send a
stronger message to ensure that Armenia remains a democratic state,
with a functional opposition that does not live in fear, and where
basic human rights, including the right to freedom of assembly and
expression, are guaranteed.
To avoid a crisis of legitimacy and the concomitant political
instability, the Armenian authorities should:
-release persons detained due to their political activity and cease
arrests and threats against the opposition, including against the
runner-up in the 19 February election, former President Levon
Ter-Petrosian; -authorise an independent investigation, with
international participation, into the 1 March violence and follow
through on the pledge to punish police officers who illegally used
weapons against civilians; -revoke the amendments to the law on
freedom of assembly adopted during the emergency rule and allow
peaceful protests in locations where they will not cause a threat
to public order; -lift remaining media restrictions and refrain
from new restrictions on the media or access to the internet;
-investigate claims of violence and attacks against political party
vote monitors at polling stations and initiate criminal proceedings
against perpetrators; and -pursue a credible dialogue process with
the opposition in an effort to lower political tensions.
To defuse tensions, the Armenian opposition should:
-agree immediately and without preconditions to enter into dialogue
with the government; -impress upon supporters that protests which aim
to stir unrest, such as blockading government buildings and impeding
the work of government ministries, will not be condoned; and -appeal
the Constitutional Court's decision on the elections to the European
Court of Human Rights and consider the same course with respect to
other court decisions when all domestic remedies are exhausted.
To facilitate a way out of the impasse, the EU and U.S. should:
-encourage all major Armenian political forces to engage in direct
negotiations to find ways to defuse tensions and speed reconciliation;
and -deliver clear messages to the Sarkisian administration that
business as usual will not be possible until serious steps are taken
to reconcile the Armenian polity as well as to address the root causes
of the current instability.
If the government does not take credible steps to implement the
measures recommended above and if arrests of opposition members
continue:
-the EU and U.S. should suspend foreign aid; -the Council of Europe
should consider suspending Armenia's membership; and -the U.S., EU
and EU member states should consider, especially if there is more
violence, initiating a diplomatic embargo on visits by President
Sarkisian and senior officials of the security services.
International Crisis Group
http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id =5385&l=1
April 8 2008
Belgium
Armenia's flawed presidential election, the subsequent lethal crackdown
against a peaceful protest rally, the introduction of a state of
emergency and extensive arrests of opposition supporters have brought
the country to its deepest crisis since the war against Azerbaijan
over Nagorno-Karabakh ended in 1994. The situation deprives Serzh
Sarkisian, scheduled to be inaugurated as president on 9 April 2008,
of badly needed legitimacy and handicaps prospects for much needed
democratic reform and resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict
alike. Unless the U.S., EU and others with significant diplomatic
leverage over the regime in Yerevan exert pressure, Armenia is
unlikely to make progress on either. The Sarkisian administration
must urgently seek credible dialogue with the opposition, release
prisoners detained on political grounds, stop arrests and harassment
of the opposition and lift all measures limiting freedom of assembly
and expression. Unless steps are taken to address the political crisis,
the U.S. and EU should suspend foreign aid and put on hold negotiations
on further and closer cooperation.
On 1 March 2008, police and security troops broke up a peaceful
demonstration that had been going on continuously in Yerevan's Liberty
Square to protest the announced official result of the 19 February
presidential election. Clashes with demonstrators intensified later
in the day, and the violence, involving firearms, arson and looting,
left seven civilians and one police officer dead.
More than 450 people were reportedly injured, including several dozen
police and troops.
Outgoing President Robert Kocharian reacted by declaring a sweeping
twenty-day state of emergency, which suspended many basic civil
rights and temporarily banned independent media reporting. The
authorities used the claim that an attempt, involving a vague
"international conspiracy", had been made to topple the government
as justification for arresting over 100 opposition figures. Though
the state of emergency was officially lifted on 21 March, President
Kocharian signed a new law into effect four days earlier placing new
controls on political manifestations.
Sarkisian, prime minister since 2007, is Kocharian's hand-picked
successor, but questions about his election and its violent aftermath
will undermine his authority. The 19 February election was marred
by serious irregularities, and the subsequent use of excessive force
and wide arrests by the authorities has caused a deep rift in society.
Unless opposition figures are freed, dialogue resumed and justice
pursued, this division will deepen.
Armenia's democracy has in most respects been in retreat for over a
decade. Some constitutional and legal reforms have been undertaken,
but they are mostly formalistic and the exception. The rule has been
flawed elections, concentration of power in the hands of the executive,
an army and security services which enjoy virtual impunity, a court
system subservient to and manipulated by the government, and increased
government censorship and control of key media outlets. Though the
economy has performed relatively well and poverty has decreased,
corruption and cronyism still seriously restrict sustainable,
equitable growth.
Armenia needs to address the electoral violence as well as more
fundamental questions regarding the country's governance. If the
incoming presidency takes the right course, the EU and U.S. need to
help foster reconciliation and deeper institutional reform. Their
reaction to the flawed election and lethal crackdown, however,
has been inadequate. The international community needs to send a
stronger message to ensure that Armenia remains a democratic state,
with a functional opposition that does not live in fear, and where
basic human rights, including the right to freedom of assembly and
expression, are guaranteed.
To avoid a crisis of legitimacy and the concomitant political
instability, the Armenian authorities should:
-release persons detained due to their political activity and cease
arrests and threats against the opposition, including against the
runner-up in the 19 February election, former President Levon
Ter-Petrosian; -authorise an independent investigation, with
international participation, into the 1 March violence and follow
through on the pledge to punish police officers who illegally used
weapons against civilians; -revoke the amendments to the law on
freedom of assembly adopted during the emergency rule and allow
peaceful protests in locations where they will not cause a threat
to public order; -lift remaining media restrictions and refrain
from new restrictions on the media or access to the internet;
-investigate claims of violence and attacks against political party
vote monitors at polling stations and initiate criminal proceedings
against perpetrators; and -pursue a credible dialogue process with
the opposition in an effort to lower political tensions.
To defuse tensions, the Armenian opposition should:
-agree immediately and without preconditions to enter into dialogue
with the government; -impress upon supporters that protests which aim
to stir unrest, such as blockading government buildings and impeding
the work of government ministries, will not be condoned; and -appeal
the Constitutional Court's decision on the elections to the European
Court of Human Rights and consider the same course with respect to
other court decisions when all domestic remedies are exhausted.
To facilitate a way out of the impasse, the EU and U.S. should:
-encourage all major Armenian political forces to engage in direct
negotiations to find ways to defuse tensions and speed reconciliation;
and -deliver clear messages to the Sarkisian administration that
business as usual will not be possible until serious steps are taken
to reconcile the Armenian polity as well as to address the root causes
of the current instability.
If the government does not take credible steps to implement the
measures recommended above and if arrests of opposition members
continue:
-the EU and U.S. should suspend foreign aid; -the Council of Europe
should consider suspending Armenia's membership; and -the U.S., EU
and EU member states should consider, especially if there is more
violence, initiating a diplomatic embargo on visits by President
Sarkisian and senior officials of the security services.