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Europe's Caucasian Moment

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  • Europe's Caucasian Moment

    EUROPE'S CAUCASIAN MOMENT
    By Borut Grgic And Alexandros Petersen

    WSJ
    August 5, 2008

    The European Union is getting closer to the security concerns of
    the Eurasian landmass, in particular the "frozen conflicts" in
    Moldova, Georgia and Azerbaijan. And it's not just due to the EU's
    expansion to the Black Sea. If Europe wants to reduce its dependency
    on Russian energy, it will need alternative oil and gas supplies from
    the Caspian region. But those strategic pipelines are only kilometers
    away from hotspots like Nagorno-Karabakh, Transnistria, South Ossetia
    and Abkhazia.

    Over the weekend, six people were killed in firefights between
    separatist South Ossetian militia and Georgian forces. This new
    outbreak of violence threatens to further complicate peace efforts
    in nearby Abkhazia. After years of neglect, EU heavyweights are
    finally taking action there. Last month, German Foreign Minister
    Frank-Walter Steinmeier developed a three-step strategy to resolve
    the Abkhazia dispute.

    This statelet in northwestern Georgia is run by an ethnically distinct
    minority that demands formal independence from Georgia. Lacking
    international recognition, the Abkhaz -- just like the South Ossetians
    -- won de facto independence with Russian support through a chaotic
    conflagration amid the breakup of the Soviet Union. During a 1992-1993
    war, the secessionists defeated the Georgian army and forced the
    majority ethnic Georgian population to leave. The enclave's isolated
    economy is fueled by Russian business interests, which sit comfortably
    behind a shield of so-called Russian peacekeepers that divide the
    territory from the rest of Georgia.

    So it is no surprise that the conflict plays out in confrontations
    between Tbilisi and Moscow. A Russian aircraft was recently filmed
    shooting down a Georgian surveillance drone. Moscow's "peacekeepers"
    frequently harass ethnic Georgians in the breakaway region, demanding
    protection money or, like last year, forcing them to vote in separatist
    elections. These provocations serve a greater strategic agenda:
    keeping Georgia out of NATO.

    The unresolved conflicts of the two breakaway regions are the greatest
    obstacles to Georgia's ambitions to join the alliance. Moscow holds
    the trump card.

    Mr. Steinmeier's plan was ambitious but realistic. It envisioned a
    stage of confidence-building measures leading to a gradual return
    of displaced peoples, followed by economic revitalization with
    European help. Abkhazia's final status was to be determined in the
    last stage. In a nod to Moscow, Mr. Steinmeier's plan did not demand
    the internationalization of the peacekeeping force.

    Russia gave the plan a green light in private meetings, only to
    reject it when the German foreign minister made it public. Prime
    Minister Vladimir Putin and his successor as Russian president,
    Dmitry Medvedev, see it as in Moscow's interest to preserve the
    simmering status quo. By publicly ambushing the plan, Moscow hopes
    to put an end to what it considers as European meddling in its own
    backyard. Russia wants to sow confusion about its true intentions,
    thus delaying any resolution of the conflict.

    While the first attempt of the German peace plan failed, it nonetheless
    indicates a growing realization among the EU's power brokers that
    it is time to get serious about resolving festering conflicts in
    the union's new neighborhood. Berlin's leadership is particularly
    notable as Germany is closest to Russia among the EU's major member
    states. And yet Berlin's peace initiative showed that it considers
    its diversified investments and diplomatic interests in the Caspian
    region important enough to strengthen Europe's relations with Georgia.

    There is now no time to lose to draft an improved plan that will
    better provide for Abkhaz demands to shape their own destiny, without
    jeopardizing Georgia's sovereignty, democratization and Western
    integration. Any stepped-up effort must include the separatist Abkhaz
    leadership. Isolated and increasingly overshadowed by Moscow, the
    leaders in Sukhumi are no more enthusiastic about Russian dominance
    than the Georgians are. True, the Abkhaz depend on Moscow's support in
    their fight against Tbilisi. But they are worried that in the process
    of getting independence from Georgia, they are being integrated
    into Russia. That's why they have quietly reached out to Western
    capitals. An EU high representative, with a significant staff and
    peacekeeping contingent, would likely be welcomed by the Abkhaz.

    By seeking a resolution to the conflicts, Europe is facilitating
    stability and prosperity in its neighborhood. Reducing tensions
    in the region also benefits Russia. Violence in Abkhazia has been
    linked to unrest in Russia's North Caucasus republics of Chechnya,
    Dagestan and Ingushetia. If Russia got bogged down in a confrontation
    in Abkhazia, violent separatists in the North Caucasus would step up
    their own rebellions.

    Therefore, achieving peace may not be an insurmountable task. The key
    to a resolution in Abkhazia is to convince Russia that stability on its
    southern border is more important than a violent veto over Georgia's,
    and possibly Abkhazia's, Western integration.

    Mr. Grgic is director, and Mr. Petersen policy adviser, at the
    Institute for Strategic Studies in Brussels.
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