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Today's Zaman, Turkey
Aug 11 2008
Russia flexes muscles in Caucasus: End of post-Soviet era?
Did Georgia's young and ambitious President Mikhail Saakashvili
miscalculate everything when he ordered an offensive in his country's
breakaway region of South Ossetia?
Given the scale of the defeat his army suffered at the hands of the
Russian forces responding to the Georgian offensive, this appears to
be a reasonable conclusion. But whether his miscalculation is to blame
for the latest tragedy in the troubled Caucasus or not, it is a clear
fact that Russia's backlash was massive and ominous in threatening to
shift the power balances prevailing in the Caucasus since the end of
the Cold War.
And as Moscow teaches Georgia the lesson that there is no way to
return to the status quo before the South Ossetia offensive, there is
little the West can do to stop Russia from overrunning Tbilisi's
ambitions to assert control over its breakaway regions despite
statements from the US administration that it supports Georgia's
`territorial integrity.' The Russian military victory over tiny
Georgia is also a painful message to both Tbilisi and its Western
allies that Georgian desires to join NATO, a milestone in Georgia's
eventual integration with the US-led West, are unlikely to become a
reality anytime soon.
"My heart aches at this repetitious history of Russian dominance and
aggression, whether Czarist, Bolshevik or Oligarchic," said Thomas
Goltz, a US expert on the Caucasus. "We can ask the question: Did
Misha [Saakashvili] go too far or get pulled into a trap? But it
really makes no difference right now. Russia has just declared the
'post-Soviet era' over and a new age has begun."
South Ossetia is one of the breakaway regions in Georgia which
declared independence in the early 1990s and ran its own affairs
without any international recognition. It has been one of the "frozen
conflicts" of the Caucasus in the post-Cold War era and thus its
turning into a full-scale conflict like this is no surprise to
observers. But it is very important to note that this is the first
time in the post-Cold War era that Russia has resorted to military
action on such a scale to defend its interests in a region it sees as
its backyard.
"One of the most important features of the post-Cold War era is the
emergence of 'geopolitical pluralism,'" said Ã-zdem Sanberk, a
former undersecretary of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, referring to
the emergence of new states in what used to be the Soviet Union
territory during the Cold War years. But a combination of what Russia
sees as a hostile encirclement by the rival West -- through US moves
to build an anti-missile shield system in eastern Europe and Western
support for Kosovo's independence from Russian ally Serbia -- and
growing Russian power thanks partly to rising oil prices, now prompts
Russia to take steps to destroy this "geopolitical pluralism" in the
Caucasus. "That means a return to the Cold War era," Sanberk said.
A New York Times analysis said yesterday that the US administration
officials acknowledge that "Moscow is in the driver's seat," given the
fact that Russia's emerging aggressiveness is now also timed with
America's preoccupation with Iraq and Afghanistan and a looming
confrontation with Iran. The newspaper quoted George Friedman, the
chief executive of Stratfor, a geopolitical analysis and intelligence
company, as saying: "We've placed ourselves in a position that
globally we don't have the wherewithal to do anything. One would think
under those circumstances, we'd shut up."
Saakashvili won the last elections on promises of NATO membership,
something which Georgia hopes will give it Western protection against
former ruler Russia, and control over the breakaway regions. But
NATO's Bucharest summit earlier this year disappointed the Georgian
administration, saying it still has problems in ensuring its
territorial integrity.
Russia, on the other hand, sees Georgia's NATO membership as part of
the hostile encirclement by the West. After Russian diplomacy failed
to stop Kosovo's independence earlier this year, Russian leaders
warned this would be a precedent for breakaway regions in the
Caucasus, including South Ossetia.
Georgia is the most loyal US ally in the Caucasus and is of key
importance in the transfer of natural gas and oil from Caspian fields
to the West via a non-Russian route. But now, having paid a high price
for its high-stake offensive in South Ossetia, Georgia, and others who
counted so far on the West to counterbalance Russia, are being forced
to reconsider their trust in the US and NATO. The Russian victory in
South Ossetia may well force a change of power in Georgia, with
Saakashvili eventually being replaced by a less pro-Western leader in
a blow to US interests in the region.
Russian experts, on the other hand, argue that the Russian position is
promising and peaceful. Moscow-based political analyst Dmitry Peskov
argues that in fact Russia was not preparing for this conflict. "With
our president on vacation and our prime minister at the Olympics,
Russian officials were not ready for such a fast-paced and dramatic
story," he said. Speaking to Today's Zaman yesterday, Peskov said that
following three days of Georgia's offensive a humanitarian crisis had
erupted and a number of Russian soldiers had died in Ossetia. The
Russian society is considering the question of when and where it will
be ready to stop the military action. "With Georgian troops outside
Ossetia and with peacekeepers, working under a UN mandate, Russia will
stop immediately," he said.
Turkey, which is cooperating with Georgia in all key trans-Caucasus
transportation and energy transfer projects and is helping Tbilisi
modernize its army, has also been caught in a difficult situation.
Despite its strong support for Georgia's integration with Western
institutions and the reliance on Tbilisi to reach the region due to
problems with neighboring Armenia, siding with Georgia in its conflict
with Russia is not a smart policy move. Trade with Russia has grown
tremendously over the past years and Russia is Turkey's largest
natural gas supplier, providing about 70 percent of its annual gas
needs.
11 August 2008, Monday
FATMA DEMIRELLI, MAHIR ZEYNALOV TODAY'S ZAMAN
Aug 11 2008
Russia flexes muscles in Caucasus: End of post-Soviet era?
Did Georgia's young and ambitious President Mikhail Saakashvili
miscalculate everything when he ordered an offensive in his country's
breakaway region of South Ossetia?
Given the scale of the defeat his army suffered at the hands of the
Russian forces responding to the Georgian offensive, this appears to
be a reasonable conclusion. But whether his miscalculation is to blame
for the latest tragedy in the troubled Caucasus or not, it is a clear
fact that Russia's backlash was massive and ominous in threatening to
shift the power balances prevailing in the Caucasus since the end of
the Cold War.
And as Moscow teaches Georgia the lesson that there is no way to
return to the status quo before the South Ossetia offensive, there is
little the West can do to stop Russia from overrunning Tbilisi's
ambitions to assert control over its breakaway regions despite
statements from the US administration that it supports Georgia's
`territorial integrity.' The Russian military victory over tiny
Georgia is also a painful message to both Tbilisi and its Western
allies that Georgian desires to join NATO, a milestone in Georgia's
eventual integration with the US-led West, are unlikely to become a
reality anytime soon.
"My heart aches at this repetitious history of Russian dominance and
aggression, whether Czarist, Bolshevik or Oligarchic," said Thomas
Goltz, a US expert on the Caucasus. "We can ask the question: Did
Misha [Saakashvili] go too far or get pulled into a trap? But it
really makes no difference right now. Russia has just declared the
'post-Soviet era' over and a new age has begun."
South Ossetia is one of the breakaway regions in Georgia which
declared independence in the early 1990s and ran its own affairs
without any international recognition. It has been one of the "frozen
conflicts" of the Caucasus in the post-Cold War era and thus its
turning into a full-scale conflict like this is no surprise to
observers. But it is very important to note that this is the first
time in the post-Cold War era that Russia has resorted to military
action on such a scale to defend its interests in a region it sees as
its backyard.
"One of the most important features of the post-Cold War era is the
emergence of 'geopolitical pluralism,'" said Ã-zdem Sanberk, a
former undersecretary of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, referring to
the emergence of new states in what used to be the Soviet Union
territory during the Cold War years. But a combination of what Russia
sees as a hostile encirclement by the rival West -- through US moves
to build an anti-missile shield system in eastern Europe and Western
support for Kosovo's independence from Russian ally Serbia -- and
growing Russian power thanks partly to rising oil prices, now prompts
Russia to take steps to destroy this "geopolitical pluralism" in the
Caucasus. "That means a return to the Cold War era," Sanberk said.
A New York Times analysis said yesterday that the US administration
officials acknowledge that "Moscow is in the driver's seat," given the
fact that Russia's emerging aggressiveness is now also timed with
America's preoccupation with Iraq and Afghanistan and a looming
confrontation with Iran. The newspaper quoted George Friedman, the
chief executive of Stratfor, a geopolitical analysis and intelligence
company, as saying: "We've placed ourselves in a position that
globally we don't have the wherewithal to do anything. One would think
under those circumstances, we'd shut up."
Saakashvili won the last elections on promises of NATO membership,
something which Georgia hopes will give it Western protection against
former ruler Russia, and control over the breakaway regions. But
NATO's Bucharest summit earlier this year disappointed the Georgian
administration, saying it still has problems in ensuring its
territorial integrity.
Russia, on the other hand, sees Georgia's NATO membership as part of
the hostile encirclement by the West. After Russian diplomacy failed
to stop Kosovo's independence earlier this year, Russian leaders
warned this would be a precedent for breakaway regions in the
Caucasus, including South Ossetia.
Georgia is the most loyal US ally in the Caucasus and is of key
importance in the transfer of natural gas and oil from Caspian fields
to the West via a non-Russian route. But now, having paid a high price
for its high-stake offensive in South Ossetia, Georgia, and others who
counted so far on the West to counterbalance Russia, are being forced
to reconsider their trust in the US and NATO. The Russian victory in
South Ossetia may well force a change of power in Georgia, with
Saakashvili eventually being replaced by a less pro-Western leader in
a blow to US interests in the region.
Russian experts, on the other hand, argue that the Russian position is
promising and peaceful. Moscow-based political analyst Dmitry Peskov
argues that in fact Russia was not preparing for this conflict. "With
our president on vacation and our prime minister at the Olympics,
Russian officials were not ready for such a fast-paced and dramatic
story," he said. Speaking to Today's Zaman yesterday, Peskov said that
following three days of Georgia's offensive a humanitarian crisis had
erupted and a number of Russian soldiers had died in Ossetia. The
Russian society is considering the question of when and where it will
be ready to stop the military action. "With Georgian troops outside
Ossetia and with peacekeepers, working under a UN mandate, Russia will
stop immediately," he said.
Turkey, which is cooperating with Georgia in all key trans-Caucasus
transportation and energy transfer projects and is helping Tbilisi
modernize its army, has also been caught in a difficult situation.
Despite its strong support for Georgia's integration with Western
institutions and the reliance on Tbilisi to reach the region due to
problems with neighboring Armenia, siding with Georgia in its conflict
with Russia is not a smart policy move. Trade with Russia has grown
tremendously over the past years and Russia is Turkey's largest
natural gas supplier, providing about 70 percent of its annual gas
needs.
11 August 2008, Monday
FATMA DEMIRELLI, MAHIR ZEYNALOV TODAY'S ZAMAN