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CIS WITHOUT GEORGIA: IS IT GOOD OR BAD?
RIA Novosti
21:14 | 14/ 08/ 2008
Russia
MOSCOW. (RIA Novosti correspondent Valentin Rakhmanov) - Georgian
President Mikheil Saakashvili has publicly declared that his country
is withdrawing from the CIS. Other members of the Commonwealth have
reacted to the news with half surprise and half indifference. There
was little official reaction.
The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry flatly refused to comment on
Saakashvili's announcement prior to Georgia filing the official
documents with the CIS Executive Committee. Kyrgyzstan's political
leaders said their country continues to support the Commonwealth
future. Belarus said it was "a supporter of the CIS". The Foreign
Ministry of Azerbaijan remarked that "Georgia's withdrawal from the
CIS is Tbilisi's own business". The Russian Foreign Ministry implied
that Saakashvili's move would be detrimental to the people of Georgia.
So, the former Soviet Union countries have failed to express solidarity
with Saakashvili over his "Rose Republic's" withdrawal from the
CIS. However, glib diplomatic formulas do not contain any trace of
outrage over his actions. What can one make of this reaction? Will
Tbilisi's withdrawal make a difference to the organization? And if so,
in what way?
These questions have provoked arguments among analysts.
Alexei Vlasov, the director of the Information-Analytical Center for
the Study of the Social and Political Processes in the Post-Soviet
Space, suggested that Georgia's withdrawal from the CIS was good news
for the CIS. "In the past two years the CIS has been an all-purpose
negotiating forum where Vladimir Putin and Mikheil Saakashvili,
the Armenian and Azerbaijani Presidents could meet and talk," he
elaborates. "But at the moment it is no more than a special interest
club which, in spite of attempted reforms - by the Presidents of
Kazakhstan and Russia - remains just that. Therefore nothing real and
practical has been happening within the CIS," Vlasov said. The problem
now, as in the past, is that each member of the Commonwealth adheres
to its own interests. With the withdrawal of Georgia, the number of
countries that have been playing a zero-sum game with Moscow has
diminished. Consequently, there is a chance to reform the CIS and
make it more practical and active.
Mr Vlasov added that Tbilisi's withdrawal may perhaps bring home to
the Russian elite that Russia needs the CIS countries and its fate
depends on it. That would have a positive impact on the fate of the
Commonwealth. The analyst believes that Georgia's move leaves the CIS
with fewer countries which consider the Commonwealth of Independent
States to be "an adjunct to Russian globalism".
Leonid Vardomsky, the head of the CIS and Baltic Center, has a
different opinion. He believes Georgia's withdrawal and the recent
peace-keeping operations will slow down CIS reform.
"The fact of Georgia's withdrawal from the CIS is not all that
important. Of late Tbilisi has hardly signed anything within the
Commonwealth and has used it solely as a negotiating forum. But this
provocative step attracts the attention of the CIS elites to Russia's
use of force against Georgia. The CIS elites are beginning to project
this situation onto themselves and feel mistrust toward Moscow. This
is especially true of Azerbaijan which has the Nagorny Karabakh problem
on its hands", Mr Vardomsky said. New projects within the CIS will most
probably be put on hold until the Georgia-provoked mistrust wears off.
Both analysts agree that in the current situation no other CIS
country is likely to follow Georgia's example. Leonid Vardomsky notes
with reason that Georgia stands to lose very little from pulling
out of the organization, considering the recent economic blockade
by Russia. However, Russian imports into that country at present
stand at the same level as before Saakashvili came to power. There
is also a visa regimen between Russia and Georgia. Other countries,
thanks to the CIS, enjoy visa-free travel for their citizens and have
considerable economic advantages. They will not easily part with an
organization that they find useful.
The reaction of the CIS countries since the beginning of the
Russia-Georgia - South Ossetia conflict has been unclear; in fact
there has been no reaction. This can be attributed to a thousand
reasons, including fear of Russia's military actions or just plain
bewilderment. Perhaps Tbilisi's sudden withdrawal from the Commonwealth
caught the former Soviet Republics by surprise. They simply do not
know how to react and are therefore keeping a reticent neutrality. Be
that as it may, no one has expressed any solidarity with Georgia in
connection with its move.
The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not
necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.
RIA Novosti
21:14 | 14/ 08/ 2008
Russia
MOSCOW. (RIA Novosti correspondent Valentin Rakhmanov) - Georgian
President Mikheil Saakashvili has publicly declared that his country
is withdrawing from the CIS. Other members of the Commonwealth have
reacted to the news with half surprise and half indifference. There
was little official reaction.
The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry flatly refused to comment on
Saakashvili's announcement prior to Georgia filing the official
documents with the CIS Executive Committee. Kyrgyzstan's political
leaders said their country continues to support the Commonwealth
future. Belarus said it was "a supporter of the CIS". The Foreign
Ministry of Azerbaijan remarked that "Georgia's withdrawal from the
CIS is Tbilisi's own business". The Russian Foreign Ministry implied
that Saakashvili's move would be detrimental to the people of Georgia.
So, the former Soviet Union countries have failed to express solidarity
with Saakashvili over his "Rose Republic's" withdrawal from the
CIS. However, glib diplomatic formulas do not contain any trace of
outrage over his actions. What can one make of this reaction? Will
Tbilisi's withdrawal make a difference to the organization? And if so,
in what way?
These questions have provoked arguments among analysts.
Alexei Vlasov, the director of the Information-Analytical Center for
the Study of the Social and Political Processes in the Post-Soviet
Space, suggested that Georgia's withdrawal from the CIS was good news
for the CIS. "In the past two years the CIS has been an all-purpose
negotiating forum where Vladimir Putin and Mikheil Saakashvili,
the Armenian and Azerbaijani Presidents could meet and talk," he
elaborates. "But at the moment it is no more than a special interest
club which, in spite of attempted reforms - by the Presidents of
Kazakhstan and Russia - remains just that. Therefore nothing real and
practical has been happening within the CIS," Vlasov said. The problem
now, as in the past, is that each member of the Commonwealth adheres
to its own interests. With the withdrawal of Georgia, the number of
countries that have been playing a zero-sum game with Moscow has
diminished. Consequently, there is a chance to reform the CIS and
make it more practical and active.
Mr Vlasov added that Tbilisi's withdrawal may perhaps bring home to
the Russian elite that Russia needs the CIS countries and its fate
depends on it. That would have a positive impact on the fate of the
Commonwealth. The analyst believes that Georgia's move leaves the CIS
with fewer countries which consider the Commonwealth of Independent
States to be "an adjunct to Russian globalism".
Leonid Vardomsky, the head of the CIS and Baltic Center, has a
different opinion. He believes Georgia's withdrawal and the recent
peace-keeping operations will slow down CIS reform.
"The fact of Georgia's withdrawal from the CIS is not all that
important. Of late Tbilisi has hardly signed anything within the
Commonwealth and has used it solely as a negotiating forum. But this
provocative step attracts the attention of the CIS elites to Russia's
use of force against Georgia. The CIS elites are beginning to project
this situation onto themselves and feel mistrust toward Moscow. This
is especially true of Azerbaijan which has the Nagorny Karabakh problem
on its hands", Mr Vardomsky said. New projects within the CIS will most
probably be put on hold until the Georgia-provoked mistrust wears off.
Both analysts agree that in the current situation no other CIS
country is likely to follow Georgia's example. Leonid Vardomsky notes
with reason that Georgia stands to lose very little from pulling
out of the organization, considering the recent economic blockade
by Russia. However, Russian imports into that country at present
stand at the same level as before Saakashvili came to power. There
is also a visa regimen between Russia and Georgia. Other countries,
thanks to the CIS, enjoy visa-free travel for their citizens and have
considerable economic advantages. They will not easily part with an
organization that they find useful.
The reaction of the CIS countries since the beginning of the
Russia-Georgia - South Ossetia conflict has been unclear; in fact
there has been no reaction. This can be attributed to a thousand
reasons, including fear of Russia's military actions or just plain
bewilderment. Perhaps Tbilisi's sudden withdrawal from the Commonwealth
caught the former Soviet Republics by surprise. They simply do not
know how to react and are therefore keeping a reticent neutrality. Be
that as it may, no one has expressed any solidarity with Georgia in
connection with its move.
The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not
necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.