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  • Return Of Legal Boomerang

    RETURN OF LEGAL BOOMERANG

    Noyan Tapan
    http://www.nt.am/news.php?shownews=116458
    Au g 15, 2008

    YEREVAN, AUGUST 15, NOYAN TAPAN. "On August 8 Georgian military
    sub-units began, as official representatives stated, "establishing
    constitutional order" in the territory of its former insurgent
    autonomy, currently - the Republic of South Ossetia unrecognized by the
    international community. A number of sources claim this armed operation
    was allegedly provoked by the Ossetian side. However, we have not
    yet found any confirmation of this circumstance by independent sources.

    The Georgian army, which at the moment of starting the military
    operation had a considerable superiority over the Russian peacekeepers
    and the military units of South Ossetia both in terms of their number
    and heavy armement, at the first stage of operations managed to take,
    without much difficulty, control of most of the dominant heights over
    Ossetia's capital of Tskhinval/Tskhinvali and launched an attack on
    the city where half the population of that unrecognized repubublic
    lives. The onslaught on the city was accompanied by the massive use of
    large-calibre artillery, "Grad" ("Hail") units and tanks. Meanwhile,
    the Georgian army rushed to the Roki tunnel in order to gain control
    of the tunnel linking Russia and South Ossetia. To all appearances,
    the blitzkrieg envisaged restoring Tbilisi's power over South Ossetia
    through "enthronement" of the government of Ossetian collaborationist
    Dmitry Sanakoyev.

    However, Georgian troops stuck in street battles in Tskhinval with
    a Russian peacekeeping battalion and Ossetian regular and irregular
    sub-units that offered fierce resistance. The Georgian army also failed
    to reach the intended boundary lines in the area of the Roki tunnel.

    In response to the actions of the Georgian side, Russia sent motorized
    units, tanks and aircraft to help its peacekeepers in South Ossetia. At
    the same time Russia reinforced its peacekeeping contingent in Abkhazia
    and brought the maritime boundaries of this republic (unrecognized by
    the international comunity) under control. The flagship of Russian
    Black Sea Navy - "Moscow" rocket cruiser arrived from Sevastopol
    to Novorossiysk.

    During several days Russian troops forced Georgian sub-units from South
    Ossetia and established full control of the zone of peacekeepers'
    responsibility. They also hit the whole military infrastructure
    of Georgia within the framework of the operation on "enforcement
    of peace". On August 12 the operation was completed, and on August
    13 Russia began withdrawing its troops from Zugdidi and Gori, two
    Georgian cities at the front.

    It is also noteworthy that performing their duty as an ally of
    Ossetins, the sub-units of Abkhazian armed forces succeeded in
    distracting part of the Georgian army and carried out a successful
    special operation of driving Georgian troops out of Abkhazia's Kodori
    gorge which Georgian sub-units entered in 2006 in violation of the
    1994 Moscow Agreements.

    Like in the previous years of intensification of Georgian-South
    Ossetian confrontation (1990-1992 and 2004), it was the civilian
    population of South Ossetia that suffered the greatest losses as
    a result of hostilities: by unspecified data, more than 1,600 were
    left dead, while the number of Ossetian refugees from the conflict
    zone exceeded 30 thousand. 74 Russian servicemen, including about
    15 peacekeepers, were killed. By some expert estimates, the Georgian
    side's losses made 170-180 people. The number of South Ossetian troops
    killed is being specified.

    The United Nations Security Council held discussions on a resolution
    presented by France. To all appearances, the principles, which were
    agreed on during a meeting of French President Nicolas Sarkozy with
    Russian President Dmitry Medvedev in Moscow, will form a basis for
    the resolution.

    We will try to sum up the above mentioned developments:

    - we can assess the actions of official Tbilisi and president Mikhail
    Saakashvili as unsufficiently considered and badly calculated which
    have put Georgia in a very difficult position. The matter concerns
    not only its undermined military infrastructure and irrecoverable
    losses but also the fact that in essence, all the achievements in
    the country's sociopolitical and economic life gained thanks to
    the 2003 "revolution of roses" are now in question. The Georgian
    residents who lived in the zone of the conflicts had to leave their
    homes. Anti-Georgian moods in North Caucasus have reached quite a
    high level.

    - the unreasoned force operation of Tbilisi resulted in the fact that
    Georgia questioned its ability to settle its conflicts with Abkhazia
    and South Ossetia without methods involving force,

    - given the existence of the Kosovo precedent, South Ossetia and
    Abkhazia took a significant step to realization of their plans of
    secession from Tbilisi,

    - many today ask themselves the question about whether Mikhail
    Saakashvili's actions were sanctioned by Washington or not. Strange
    as it may seem, in both cases this can be seen as failure of
    the U.S. policy in the South Caucasus. If Americans sanctioned
    M. Saakashviki's actions, it turns out that they were mistaken in
    their military and political forecasts, while on the other hand they
    did not give the appropriate support to their ally. If the action
    was not sanctioned by Washington, it turns out that M.

    Saakashvili has involved the Bush administration in an extremely
    dangerous adventure and questioned some important positions of the
    U.S. in the region.

    How expedient is it to deal with such a hardly predictable leader?

    - the readiness of numerous volunteers from North Caucasus to take
    part in military operations against Georgia on the side of Abkhazia
    and South Ossetia showed once again that North and South Caucasus are
    two parts of one geopolitical system. Thus, any political planning
    in the region of Greater Caucsus is doomed to fail when it does not
    take this circumstance into consideration,

    - as a result of its strict response actions against Georgia, Russia
    has considerably strengthened its positions in North Causasus - at the
    time these positions were undermined by two wars in Chechnya. Moreover,
    Russia's rating has risen not only in the Russian regions of the South
    Federal Okrug but also in such regions as Adygei, Karachai-Cherkess,
    Kabardino-Balkaria, and certainly North Ossetia. Besides, the
    demonstration of Moscow's force capacities in its confrontation
    with Georgia became a convincing argument for radicals in Chechnya,
    Ingushetia and Dagestan. We do not state that these actions have
    resulted in final liquidation of the danger of separatism in North
    Caucasus but it is definite that the number of its supporters will
    not grow in the foreseeable future,

    - Russia's use and demonstration of force will make Baku consider
    everything seriously before taking a decision on solution of the
    Nagorno-Karabakh problem by force,

    - the "problemness" of Georgia may slow down the development of
    projects on realization of hyfrocarbon raw material supply routes
    from Central Asia to the West via the South Caucasus by bypassing
    Russia. This in its turn means tendencies of strengthening positions
    of Russia in Central Asia. Baku and Central Asian countries will think
    over South Caucasian routes for supply of power-bearing substances
    and the possible actions of Moscow in a crisis situation,

    - in the foreseeable future the U.S. can hardly use bridgeheads in
    the South Caucasus for military operations against Iran,

    At the moment Russia is being accused of violating a number of rules
    of international law. There may be some grounds for it but the fact
    remains that it is Georgia and not Russia that began the military
    operation and that Tbilisi acted in violation of the 1992 Dagomys
    Agreements.

    On the other hand, what can be done about the precedents of violation
    of international law in former Yugoslavia, Iraq and Kosovo which were
    set at the time by the U.S, West and the same NATO? At the time they
    did much so that the right of force rather than the force of law
    could triumph in a number of conflicts. Now the legal boomerang is
    coming back.

    It can be stated that the currently forming situation in the South
    Caucasian region will cause Washington and the West to use considerable
    resources for restoration of the previous (before the recent conflict
    in South Ossetia) status quo.

    Meanwhile the regional players, including official Yerevan, which had
    sustained a long pause throughout the conflict, hurried to demonstrate
    their loyalty to the winner - Moscow. However, until recently president
    Serzh Sargsyan tried to maneuver between the West and Russia because
    of the not simple internal political situation."

    David Petrosian, political correspondent of Noyan Tapan center.

    From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
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