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Is Ukraine Next? Georgian War Exacerbates Russia-Ukraine Relations

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  • Is Ukraine Next? Georgian War Exacerbates Russia-Ukraine Relations

    IS UKRAINE NEXT? GEORGIAN WAR EXACERBATES RUSSIA-UKRAINE RELATIONS
    Richard Weitz

    World Politics Review
    15 Aug 2008

    World Politics Review Exclusive

    The War in Georgia has seriously exacerbated relations between Russia
    and Ukraine's pro-Western government. On Aug. 12, Ukrainian President
    Victor Yushchenko joined the leaders of four other former Soviet states
    in Tbilisi to show solidarity with Georgia and its embattled president,
    Mikheil Saakashvili. Yushchenko told the crowd that had assembled in
    Tbilisi's central square: "You will never be left alone! . . . We
    have come to reaffirm your sovereignty, your independence, your
    territorial integrity. These are our values. Independent Georgia is
    and independent Georgia will always be!"

    The following day, President Yushchenko boldly imposed severe
    restrictions on the movement of Russian military units in
    Ukraine. Specifically, he directed that Russian warships, warplanes,
    or other military units give 72 hours' notice before moving within
    Ukrainian territory. The order also applies to ships of the Russian
    Black Sea Fleet seeking to reenter their home base at Sevastopol. The
    Russian Foreign Ministry attacked the measures as a "serious, new
    anti-Russian step."

    Ukrainian officials claimed that the restrictions were not a direct
    result of the Russian military intervention in Georgia. Instead, they
    maintain that they had long sought to regulate more effectively Russian
    operations at the Sevastopol base, but that Moscow had repeatedly
    delayed commencing talks on the issue by arguing that it had no plan
    to employ the Black Sea Fleet in foreign military operations.

    Nevertheless, the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry had stated at the onset
    of the war that they would not necessarily allow Russian warships to
    return to Sevastopol if they supported military operations against
    Georgia. "We have information confirmed by our specialists that
    several vessels of the Black Sea Fleet left Sevastopol and either made
    their way or were making their way toward the territory of Georgia,"
    Ukraine Foreign Minister Volodymyr Ohryzko explained while in Georgia
    on Aug. 10. "Obviously, if this is confirmed we will have to reconsider
    the conditions under which these vessels would be able to be stationed
    on the territory of Ukraine."

    On Aug. 13, moreover, the Ukrainian Security Council issued a statement
    declaring that the presence of foreign warships in its waters "poses a
    potential threat to Ukraine's national security, particularly if parts
    of Russia's Black Sea Fleet are used against third countries." The
    Ukrainian government has long insisted it will not renew Russia's
    lease regarding Sevastopol when it expires on May 28, 2017.

    For their part, Russian officials denounced the Ukrainian government
    for siding with Saakashvili, who Moscow holds responsible for starting
    the war and committing war crimes against Russian citizens in South
    Ossetia. After the Georgian War began, Sergei Shoigu, Russia's
    minister for emergency situations, expressed indignation that,
    "One week before these events, we send a column of humanitarian
    aid to Ukraine to help flood victims and the next we find they're
    offering military aid, arms for the destruction of civilians." One
    month prior to the invasion, Ukrainian troops participated in a large,
    multinational military exercise in Georgia, "Immediate Response 2008"
    which also involved Azeri, Armenian and American soldiers.

    After the war ended in an overwhelming Russian military victory,
    former Georgian President Eduard Shevardnadze, who as the last Soviet
    foreign minister helped dismantle the Soviet Union -- a development
    that Putin called the "greatest geopolitical catastrophe" of the
    20th century -- warned that "Ukraine most likely'" would be the next
    country to experience increased Russian military pressure to abandon
    foreign and defense policies opposed by Moscow.

    There are certainly many disturbing parallels in the situations Ukraine
    and Georgia find themselves with respect to Moscow. Pro-Western
    governments came to power following popular revolutions in both
    countries -- in Georgia in 2003 and Ukraine in 2004. Along with
    Georgia, the Ukrainian government is seeking to join NATO. At this
    April's NATO summit in Bucharest, the alliance's communique said that
    both countries "will become NATO members" eventually. The Georgian
    and Ukrainian governments also have collaborated to pursue energy
    transit routes linking the Caspian Sea to Europe that bypass Russia.

    Unfortunately, Ukraine shares some of Georgia's vulnerabilities as
    well. The Ukrainian region of Crimea has a majority Russian-speaking
    population. Some of its members would like to join Russia. The
    peninsula also hosts an important naval base that Russia does not want
    to relinquish. The Kremlin might be able to instigate a pro-Russian
    uprising in the Crimea in which the insurgents, following the South
    Ossetian precedent, would appeal for Russian military intervention
    to protect them from Kiev.

    Various Russian leaders have suggested that, if Ukraine actually joins
    NATO or attempts to expel the Russian Black Sea Fleet from Sevastopol,
    then Russia might annex the Crimea. After the Bucharest summit,
    Putin told a news conference that, "The appearance on our borders of a
    powerful military bloc . . . will be considered by Russia as a direct
    threat to our country's security." Army Gen. Yury Baluyevsky, chief of
    the Russian General Staff, said that the entry of Ukraine or Georgia
    into NATO would lead Moscow to "undoubtedly take measures to ensure
    its security near the state border. These will be both military and
    other measures." Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov likewise said Moscow
    "will do everything possible to prevent the accession of Ukraine and
    Georgia to NATO." These statements appear aimed at stoking tensions
    with Ukraine to exacerbate the country's internal differences and
    reinforce West European reluctance to allow Ukrainian entry into NATO.

    Nevertheless, there are certain major differences between Georgia and
    Ukraine. First, the Ukrainian armed forces are much stronger than those
    of Georgia. Whereas Georgia's prewar military had approximately 37,000
    soldiers under arms, the Ukrainian military numbers over 200,000. The
    Russian armed forces is still five times larger, but would find
    a war with Ukraine, with a population -- which, though divided
    about NATO membership, would presumably rally to defend Ukraine's
    territorial integrity -- some 10 times larger than that of Georgia,
    a much greater challenge.

    In addition, the United States and some other NATO countries have
    belatedly sought to reinforce their political-military position
    in the former Soviet bloc. The Bush administration appears to have
    accepted Saakashvili's warning that the weak U.S. response to the
    Russian intervention was creating a situation in which "America is
    losing the whole region" to Russia.

    After days of supporting the Georgian position with nothing but
    rhetoric, President Bush announced on Aug. 13 that the U.S. military
    would conduct a relief operation in Georgia. Whatever humanitarian
    assistance it might provide the Georgian people would pale in
    significance to the deployment's symbolic importance as reaffirming
    Washington's continuing role and interests in Russia's neighborhood.

    The announcement that NATO would hold a special meeting on the
    conflict, as well as the long-awaited consummation of a Polish-American
    deal on basing U.S. missile interceptors in Poland, also signaled
    that Washington and some of its allies were now determined to shore
    up their presence in the region to dissuade further Russian predations.

    Richard Weitz is a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute and a World
    Politics Review contributing editor.
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