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Haykakan Zhamanak , Armenia
Aug 12 2008
The conflict is defrozen
The dramatic developments in neighbouring Georgia in recent days and
the hostilities which claimed thousands of human lives are bound to
cause serious concern and analysis in other countries of the South
Caucasus.
In fact, we witnessed how one of the frozen conflicts in the region
exploded in a few hours and this will affect settlement of other
conflicts. As the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict was almost equated to the
South Ossetian, Abkhaz and Dniester conflicts from the point of view
of international perception and presentation during the last years,
the events that took place in South Ossetia are crucial for Nagornyy
Karabakh and Armenia in this regard. Analysts believe that the
practice of military settlement of the regional conflicts after a
ceasefire that lasted for years is causing concern.
Comments by Azerbaijani, Armenian analysts
Meanwhile, there are opinions that irrespective of the outcome of the
events in Georgia, they have already created a precedent, successful
or not, and can influence to some extent the further policies of the
states involved in the regional conflicts. We have already reported
that that during the first hours of the hostilities a certain
inspiration and activity could be seen in Azerbaijan, statements were
made from there that Azerbaijan should also follow Georgia's example
- to restore its territorial integrity. Yesterday [11 August]
Azerbaijani political analysts and experts discussed this topic
again. In particular, an Azerbaijani political analyst Ilgar
Mammadov, called upon the Azerbaijani government to provide support
to Georgia, as "Georgia's success is important for Azerbaijan". He
said that "Azerbaijan should provide full support to Georgia, and
military support, if necessary. Only in that case we will manage to
oust Russia from the South Caucasus. Azerbaijan can have an advantage
in the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict and carry out hostilities - to
settle the conflict only after it ousts the Russian Federation."
An Azerbaijani military expert, Yasar Cafarli, said that Azerbaijan's
economic strengthening irritates Russia, and while choosing its
actions, Azerbaijan should take into account that Russia can at any
moment attack Azerbaijan as well. "The Kremlin understands that if it
yields South Ossetia to Georgia, then a number of defeats will follow
this, separatists will be destroyed in Abkhazia, in Nagornyy Karabakh
and Dniester," Azerbaijani expert Akbar Hasanov wrote yesterday [11
August].
The reaction to what goes on is, naturally, much more reserved in
Armenia. A political expert, Aghasi Yenokyan, believes that it cannot
be ruled out that as a result of the events in Georgia we will see
some change in Azerbaijan's policy; what is important is that the war
has brought about a few tendencies. The first one is the tendency of
military settlement of territorial disputes, the second one - creating
an updated and changed notion of sovereignty of the states in the
region. "Russia did not take into account any sovereignty, and we mean
not just that of South Ossetia, but the hostilities carried out beyond
its territory [in Georgia proper]," Yenokyan says, adding that
Azerbaijan might act like Georgia.
Official reaction
However, although opinions of political scientists and experts are
very important in such cases as they create a general understanding of
the sentiments in a specific country, official statements made by
governments are much more important. The Armenian and Azerbaijani
foreign ministries made corresponding statements on Friday [8
August]. Azerbaijan backed Georgia's territorial integrity and
announced that the South Ossetian issue should be settled based on the
principle of territorial integrity. The Azerbaijani government also
announced that they back the actions of the Georgian government in
South Ossetia and find those lawful and in compliance with
international law norms. The Armenian Foreign Ministry expressed
concern over what happened in Georgia and voiced hope that the issue
will be settled in a peaceful way.
[Passage omitted: The statement of the breakaway Nagornyy Karabakh
republic which calls to stop bloodshed and says that military
settlements of such issues has no future]
The head of the Nagornyy Karabakh's parliamentary committee for
foreign relations, Vahram Atanesyan, said yesterday [11 August] at a
news conference that Georgia's attempt to return South Ossetia has
failed. Atanesyan described Georgia's steps as an adventure, and
Russia's reaction as an equivalent. Atanesyan did not rule out that
the NKR government can provide humanitarian assistance to South
Ossetia, and also stressed that that the events showed that attempts
of military settlement of conflicts are doomed [to fail].
The most important one is the statement made yesterday [11 August ] by
the spokesman for the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry [Xazar Ibrahim]
about continuing the negotiations on settling the Nagornyy Karabakh
conflict in the framework of the OSCE Minsk Group. Accordingly,
Azerbaijan is not going to review the issue of Russia's chairmanship
in the OSCE Minsk Group due to the position of the Russian government
in the Georgian-Ossetian conflict. However, what complicates the
situation is that the positions of countries can change at any time.
Aug 12 2008
The conflict is defrozen
The dramatic developments in neighbouring Georgia in recent days and
the hostilities which claimed thousands of human lives are bound to
cause serious concern and analysis in other countries of the South
Caucasus.
In fact, we witnessed how one of the frozen conflicts in the region
exploded in a few hours and this will affect settlement of other
conflicts. As the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict was almost equated to the
South Ossetian, Abkhaz and Dniester conflicts from the point of view
of international perception and presentation during the last years,
the events that took place in South Ossetia are crucial for Nagornyy
Karabakh and Armenia in this regard. Analysts believe that the
practice of military settlement of the regional conflicts after a
ceasefire that lasted for years is causing concern.
Comments by Azerbaijani, Armenian analysts
Meanwhile, there are opinions that irrespective of the outcome of the
events in Georgia, they have already created a precedent, successful
or not, and can influence to some extent the further policies of the
states involved in the regional conflicts. We have already reported
that that during the first hours of the hostilities a certain
inspiration and activity could be seen in Azerbaijan, statements were
made from there that Azerbaijan should also follow Georgia's example
- to restore its territorial integrity. Yesterday [11 August]
Azerbaijani political analysts and experts discussed this topic
again. In particular, an Azerbaijani political analyst Ilgar
Mammadov, called upon the Azerbaijani government to provide support
to Georgia, as "Georgia's success is important for Azerbaijan". He
said that "Azerbaijan should provide full support to Georgia, and
military support, if necessary. Only in that case we will manage to
oust Russia from the South Caucasus. Azerbaijan can have an advantage
in the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict and carry out hostilities - to
settle the conflict only after it ousts the Russian Federation."
An Azerbaijani military expert, Yasar Cafarli, said that Azerbaijan's
economic strengthening irritates Russia, and while choosing its
actions, Azerbaijan should take into account that Russia can at any
moment attack Azerbaijan as well. "The Kremlin understands that if it
yields South Ossetia to Georgia, then a number of defeats will follow
this, separatists will be destroyed in Abkhazia, in Nagornyy Karabakh
and Dniester," Azerbaijani expert Akbar Hasanov wrote yesterday [11
August].
The reaction to what goes on is, naturally, much more reserved in
Armenia. A political expert, Aghasi Yenokyan, believes that it cannot
be ruled out that as a result of the events in Georgia we will see
some change in Azerbaijan's policy; what is important is that the war
has brought about a few tendencies. The first one is the tendency of
military settlement of territorial disputes, the second one - creating
an updated and changed notion of sovereignty of the states in the
region. "Russia did not take into account any sovereignty, and we mean
not just that of South Ossetia, but the hostilities carried out beyond
its territory [in Georgia proper]," Yenokyan says, adding that
Azerbaijan might act like Georgia.
Official reaction
However, although opinions of political scientists and experts are
very important in such cases as they create a general understanding of
the sentiments in a specific country, official statements made by
governments are much more important. The Armenian and Azerbaijani
foreign ministries made corresponding statements on Friday [8
August]. Azerbaijan backed Georgia's territorial integrity and
announced that the South Ossetian issue should be settled based on the
principle of territorial integrity. The Azerbaijani government also
announced that they back the actions of the Georgian government in
South Ossetia and find those lawful and in compliance with
international law norms. The Armenian Foreign Ministry expressed
concern over what happened in Georgia and voiced hope that the issue
will be settled in a peaceful way.
[Passage omitted: The statement of the breakaway Nagornyy Karabakh
republic which calls to stop bloodshed and says that military
settlements of such issues has no future]
The head of the Nagornyy Karabakh's parliamentary committee for
foreign relations, Vahram Atanesyan, said yesterday [11 August] at a
news conference that Georgia's attempt to return South Ossetia has
failed. Atanesyan described Georgia's steps as an adventure, and
Russia's reaction as an equivalent. Atanesyan did not rule out that
the NKR government can provide humanitarian assistance to South
Ossetia, and also stressed that that the events showed that attempts
of military settlement of conflicts are doomed [to fail].
The most important one is the statement made yesterday [11 August ] by
the spokesman for the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry [Xazar Ibrahim]
about continuing the negotiations on settling the Nagornyy Karabakh
conflict in the framework of the OSCE Minsk Group. Accordingly,
Azerbaijan is not going to review the issue of Russia's chairmanship
in the OSCE Minsk Group due to the position of the Russian government
in the Georgian-Ossetian conflict. However, what complicates the
situation is that the positions of countries can change at any time.