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  • The First Casualty of the CIS

    WPS Agency, Russia
    What the Papers Say (Russia)
    August 13, 2008 Wednesday



    THE FIRST CASUALTY OF THE C.I.S.

    by Svetlana Gamova, Anatoly Gordiyenko

    Georgia withdraws from the CIS and calls on other countries to follow;
    Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili has announced that Georgia is
    withdrawing from the CIS. He called on Ukraine and other former Soviet
    republics to follow this example. Most CIS countries have been slow to
    comment on the South Ossetia conflict.

    The end of the war in South Ossetia, announced yesterday by Russian
    President Dmitri Medvedev, has coincided with another ending - in the
    Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). Georgian President Mikheil
    Saakashvili told his fellow citizens that Georgia is withdrawing from
    the CIS. He called on Ukraine and other former Soviet republics to
    follow this example. But the governments of other CIS countries are in
    no hurry to submit those resignations. Neither are they rushing to
    express opinions about the recent events in Georgia's conflict
    zones. Most of Russia's CIS partners - including its closest friends
    and allies, Belarus and Kazakhstan - did not express support for the
    peacekeeping operation aimed at compelling Georgia to make peace. But
    neither did they express support for Tbilisi. Clear statements
    regarding Moscow were issued by Ukraine and Azerbaijan: they expressed
    support for Georgia's territorial integrity. The other CIS countries
    still remain silent.

    Speaking at a rally in Tbilisi on August 12, Saakashvili announced
    that the Georgian government decided on August 11 to withdraw from the
    CIS. The 100,000 people at the rally responded to this news with
    applause. Saakashvili said that in making this decision, Georgia is
    bidding its final farewell to the Soviet Union. He called on Ukraine
    and other former Soviet republics to join Georgia in withdrawing from
    the CIS, which is run by Russia. Moreover, Saakashvili announced that
    the Georgian government has made the decision to revoke all previous
    decisions regarding Russia's peacekeeping mission. Saakashvili said:
    "As of today, we regard the Russian troops in Abkhazia and South
    Ossetia as occupation forces and regard these regions as occupied
    territories. And we won't stop fighting until the last occupying
    soldier has left our land."

    No other CIS countries have responded to Georgia's move as yet, but
    Ukraine may follow its example. Meanwhile, however, friendly capitals
    remain silent - delaying any evaluations of recent events in South
    Ossetia. Kazakhstan attempted to make a statement yesterday, but it
    wasn't very convincing.

    Kazakh Foreign Ministry spokesman Erzhan Ashikbayev said at a briefing
    on August 12: "The Ministry has no statements to make at this time,
    although this doesn't mean that Kazakhstan has no stance on the issue
    in question." Ashikbayev said: "We support political regulation of the
    conflict." He also noted that Kazakhstan is "closely following
    developments in the conflict zone, and will continue to monitor the
    situation," and "will certainly participate in any CIS consultations
    about resolving the situation in Georgia, if the country holding the
    CIS chair initiates such consultations."

    Kyrgyzstan is currently chairing the CIS - but it hasn't called any
    meetings so far. Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek Bakiyev said: "The
    situation in South Ossetia should be resolved by political methods."
    He instructed the Kyrgyz Foreign Ministry to hold consultations with
    the foreign affairs ministries of other CIS countries. Then Bakiyev
    left for his summer vacation. His press service told us that he is in
    Issyk-Kula and will be taking a break there until the end of next
    week. Thus, we shouldn't expect any urgent CIS meetings, not even at
    the level of foreign affairs ministers - let alone a heads of state
    summit.

    There is also silence from the government of Uzbekistan - Russia's
    strategic and military partner. Another friend of Moscow, Tajikistan,
    hasn't given an evaluation of events in South Ossetia
    either. Turkmenistan remains neutral, as usual. But most surprising of
    all is the silence from Minsk. Only a year ago, Belarusian President
    Alexander Lukashenko showed support for Moscow on all its foreign
    policy issues; but now he hasn't said a word about what happened in
    Tskhinvali.

    The only unequivocal statements have come from members of the GUAM
    alliance. Ukraine not only announced that it is siding with Georgia,
    but told Russia that it is treating a neighbor-state inappropriately,
    and even threatened to prevent Russian warships from returning to
    their Sevastopol base. Khazar Ibragim, spokesman for the Foreign
    Ministry of Azerbaijan, upheld the territorial integrity of Georgia
    and expressed support for Tbilisi's actions. He also emphasized
    Nagorno-Karabakh: "If it becomes necessary, Azerbaijan will act in
    accordance with international law to re-establish its territorial
    integrity." However, in contrast to Ukraine, Azerbaijan has not
    condemned Russia's actions.

    Moldova confined itself to an expression of support for the European
    Union's stance: calling for a cease-fire from both sides. Armenia did
    the same. President Nursultan Nazarbayev of Kazakhstan met with Prime
    Minister Vladimir Putin in Beijing; he said that the peacekeeping
    mandate for South Ossetia was issued by the CIS heads of state, and
    only they could withdraw it - but this statement hasn't been followed
    up. In contrast to the UN Security Council, which has met five times
    to discuss this problem, the CIS hasn't organized any summits in
    relation to the war. This fact tells us a great deal about the
    effectiveness of the CIS in general, as well as indicating serious
    problems with bilateral relations between Russia and its former
    allies.

    These countries have taken a waiting stance because they don't wish to
    quarrel with either Moscow or Washington. Everyone understands that
    the voting rights in the South Ossetia conflict are held by Russia and
    the USA, not Russia and Georgia. Central Asian states aren't the only
    ones to be cooperating actively with the USA and other Western
    countries. Even Lukashenko has hired a Western image-maker; thus, he
    is trying to save face in this complicated situation. Moreover,
    experts say that a number of CIS countries are looking at the South
    Ossetia situation and applying it to their own cases.

    A number of political analysts in Kyrgyzstan maintain that the next
    round of the "game" should be expected to focus on the Manas airbase:
    controlled by the Coalition Forces in Afghanistan de jure, and by the
    USA de facto. Analyst Mars Sariyev says: "There is an American
    military base in Kyrgyzstan - as well as a Russian airbase. Therefore,
    we will be forced to decide between them. The Communist Party of
    Kyrgyzstan has already called for the Manas airbase to be removed from
    Bishkek. We are in a difficult situation. Both Russia and the USA will
    be putting pressure on us." Another analyst, Askarbek Mambetaliyev,
    says: "If South Ossetia is successfully separated from Georgia, this
    would set a precedent for the Russian president to 'defend the lives
    and honor of Russian citizens wherever they may be' by using such
    methods."

    Similar apprehensions are being expressed in Ukraine - but in that
    country, they are coming from the Foreign Ministry. Azerbaijan,
    Armenia, and Moldova all have unresolved territorial problems; they
    are watching events and awaiting the conclusion of the story that
    started with Georgia fighting South Ossetia, then changed to Russia
    fighting Georgia. These countries are looking to either copy Georgia's
    experience or refrain from doing so. They are also trying to figure
    out whom to blame and what to blame them for - if any such situation
    should arise.

    Source: Nezavisimaya Gazeta, No. 169, August 13, 2008, pp. 1-2

    Translated by InterContact
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