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TURKEY'S 'CAUCASUS ALLIANCE' PROPOSAL: HOW LIKELY IS ITS SUCCESS? (1)
By Guner Ozkan
Today's Zaman
Aug 19 2008
Turkey
Amid desperate EU attempts and increasingly tough words from the US
to Moscow for an immediate cease-fire and the withdrawal of Russian
forces in the war between Russia and Georgia, Turkey has suggested
the establishment of the "Caucasus Alliance."
Turkey is surely acting in good faith, as it has, with some
reservations, good economic, political and social relationships with
both Moscow and Tbilisi; it seeks a durable peace on its doorstep. So
what does the Turkish proposal include? How likely is its success in
a region as complex as the Caucasus, and why?
Goals and means of the 'alliance'
Though still in the process of creation, after prompt visits to Moscow
and Tbilisi Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan outlined the
purpose and content of the Caucasus Alliance. Its main objective is
to establish permanent peace and security in the region by bringing
all regional states together in a joint formation. To this end,
it envisages a structure in which regional states are expected
once again to reassure each other of respect of state sovereignty,
restraint from the use and threat of force, the inviolability of
state borders and non-harmful economic and energy security in their
common space of the Caucasus. Principles such as state sovereignty,
inviolability of borders and so on in the formation will take their
main references from the charter of the Organization for Security and
Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), of which Russia, Turkey and all other
Caucasian states are members.
Erdogan is seeing that the establishment of lasting peace and security
is the principal aim here, and he believes that this goal can be
achieved through the increase of economic cooperation among regional
states. In order to better present this idea, he gave the examples
of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC), Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum (BTE) and
Baku-Tbilisi-Kars (BTK) projects as economic ventures contributing
significantly to regional peace and security. He pointed out the
necessity to develop more such projects and to expand them in such
a way that would connect all peoples in the Caucasus.
Russia and Georgia appear to have accepted the new formation in
principle, and the foreign ministries of the three states are going to
work on the details, as Turkey gets ready to offer the plan first to
Azerbaijan and Armenia and then to the EU for their participation. The
Turkish side is particularly hopeful that the Caucasus Alliance in
the offing will resolve the other most important regional security
issue, the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Baku and Yerevan, once
and for all.
Interdependence as security solution
In fact, the proposal Turkey is now presenting is a method that
has been discussed in international relations security studies for
years, mainly between liberal and realist security thinkers. Turkey's
suggestion of an "alliance" for the Caucasus takes its logical base
from liberal views on security solutions that have developed primarily
as responses to those of the state-centric realist perspectives in
interstate relations.
Of others, neo-liberal institutionalists principally suggest that there
are various diverse and important actors in domestic and international
levels, which function outside the strict control of governments.
Intergovernmental organizations as well as private ones, with their
diverse agendas, can and do influence governments' decisions, pushing
them to cooperate among themselves further and thereby allowing states
to get over a number of inter and intrastate disputes. Basically, the
liberal school suggests that the presence of complex interdependence
among societies and states allows multiple channels to open
between those actors in their trans-governmental and transnational
relations. This "complex web of linkages" between formal and informal
actors deals with a myriad of issues in which the military security
and/or survival of the state prioritized by the realists is not
supposed to take top priority. Rather, it is assumed that if or when
states manage to construct a complex interdependence among themselves,
such as improved trade relations and joint economic projects in a
particular region, the risk of the use of military force will be,
to a large extent, avoided.
Realist perspectives on security, on the other hand, do not share
much of those liberal views on security. For them, though complex
interdependence is a source of cooperation and an important method
for problem solving, or at least decreasing the tension among states,
the same sources are the scarce commodities for which individuals
and states often strive for control, paving the way for inter and
intrastate military conflicts. Indeed, realists argue that states
always seek to maximize their power in line with their national
interests in economic, military and security issues and minimize the
risks in the same matters. Realists see that complex interdependence
can only work so long as all parties are satisfied, and yet this is
often impossible to succeed in and hard to sustain. So interdependence
resembles no more than a fierce competition for power and domination
over scarce resources. As continuous rivalry over scarce resources
is a never-ending phenomenon, conflict cannot always be avoided. In
this never-ending state of rivalry, intergovernmental organizations,
for the realists, are no more than instruments in the hands of states
to promote their national/security interests.
*Assistant Professor Guner Ozkan is a Caucasus expert at the
Ankara-based International Strategic Research Organization (ISRO-USAK)
and a lecturer at Mugla University.
By Guner Ozkan
Today's Zaman
Aug 19 2008
Turkey
Amid desperate EU attempts and increasingly tough words from the US
to Moscow for an immediate cease-fire and the withdrawal of Russian
forces in the war between Russia and Georgia, Turkey has suggested
the establishment of the "Caucasus Alliance."
Turkey is surely acting in good faith, as it has, with some
reservations, good economic, political and social relationships with
both Moscow and Tbilisi; it seeks a durable peace on its doorstep. So
what does the Turkish proposal include? How likely is its success in
a region as complex as the Caucasus, and why?
Goals and means of the 'alliance'
Though still in the process of creation, after prompt visits to Moscow
and Tbilisi Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan outlined the
purpose and content of the Caucasus Alliance. Its main objective is
to establish permanent peace and security in the region by bringing
all regional states together in a joint formation. To this end,
it envisages a structure in which regional states are expected
once again to reassure each other of respect of state sovereignty,
restraint from the use and threat of force, the inviolability of
state borders and non-harmful economic and energy security in their
common space of the Caucasus. Principles such as state sovereignty,
inviolability of borders and so on in the formation will take their
main references from the charter of the Organization for Security and
Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), of which Russia, Turkey and all other
Caucasian states are members.
Erdogan is seeing that the establishment of lasting peace and security
is the principal aim here, and he believes that this goal can be
achieved through the increase of economic cooperation among regional
states. In order to better present this idea, he gave the examples
of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC), Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum (BTE) and
Baku-Tbilisi-Kars (BTK) projects as economic ventures contributing
significantly to regional peace and security. He pointed out the
necessity to develop more such projects and to expand them in such
a way that would connect all peoples in the Caucasus.
Russia and Georgia appear to have accepted the new formation in
principle, and the foreign ministries of the three states are going to
work on the details, as Turkey gets ready to offer the plan first to
Azerbaijan and Armenia and then to the EU for their participation. The
Turkish side is particularly hopeful that the Caucasus Alliance in
the offing will resolve the other most important regional security
issue, the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Baku and Yerevan, once
and for all.
Interdependence as security solution
In fact, the proposal Turkey is now presenting is a method that
has been discussed in international relations security studies for
years, mainly between liberal and realist security thinkers. Turkey's
suggestion of an "alliance" for the Caucasus takes its logical base
from liberal views on security solutions that have developed primarily
as responses to those of the state-centric realist perspectives in
interstate relations.
Of others, neo-liberal institutionalists principally suggest that there
are various diverse and important actors in domestic and international
levels, which function outside the strict control of governments.
Intergovernmental organizations as well as private ones, with their
diverse agendas, can and do influence governments' decisions, pushing
them to cooperate among themselves further and thereby allowing states
to get over a number of inter and intrastate disputes. Basically, the
liberal school suggests that the presence of complex interdependence
among societies and states allows multiple channels to open
between those actors in their trans-governmental and transnational
relations. This "complex web of linkages" between formal and informal
actors deals with a myriad of issues in which the military security
and/or survival of the state prioritized by the realists is not
supposed to take top priority. Rather, it is assumed that if or when
states manage to construct a complex interdependence among themselves,
such as improved trade relations and joint economic projects in a
particular region, the risk of the use of military force will be,
to a large extent, avoided.
Realist perspectives on security, on the other hand, do not share
much of those liberal views on security. For them, though complex
interdependence is a source of cooperation and an important method
for problem solving, or at least decreasing the tension among states,
the same sources are the scarce commodities for which individuals
and states often strive for control, paving the way for inter and
intrastate military conflicts. Indeed, realists argue that states
always seek to maximize their power in line with their national
interests in economic, military and security issues and minimize the
risks in the same matters. Realists see that complex interdependence
can only work so long as all parties are satisfied, and yet this is
often impossible to succeed in and hard to sustain. So interdependence
resembles no more than a fierce competition for power and domination
over scarce resources. As continuous rivalry over scarce resources
is a never-ending phenomenon, conflict cannot always be avoided. In
this never-ending state of rivalry, intergovernmental organizations,
for the realists, are no more than instruments in the hands of states
to promote their national/security interests.
*Assistant Professor Guner Ozkan is a Caucasus expert at the
Ankara-based International Strategic Research Organization (ISRO-USAK)
and a lecturer at Mugla University.