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AZERBAIJAN: BETWEEN THE KREMLIN AND THE WHITE HOUSE, OR HOW TO LIVE IN A BIPOLAR WORLD?
Today.Az
http://www.today.az/news/politics /47056.html
Aug 19 2008
Azerbaijan
The world has changed after August 8 of 2008.
Whatever some Russian political scientists say, it has again become
bipolar: by its military aggression against Georgia the Kremlin
signaled to the world that the process of the USSR transformation into
a new state, which has the same claims for ruling over the world, has
completed. Today the world needs to base of the fact that Russia is a
real rival of the United States in their fight for world leadership. It
is especially important that such small countries as Azerbaijan need
to realize it, for the combat for influence in the South Caucasus
region between the United States and Russia has just entered a new,
fierce stage of its development.
Bloodless victory of Washington
First of all, it should be noted that only one country-the United
States-has won from Russia's military aggression against Georgia. Let's
see: the United States did not take part in the Russian-Georgian
conflict, which means no victims from its side. But both Georgian and
Russian armed troops had losses. I do not even speak of thousands of
Georgian and Ossetian refugees.
Now let's speak about the diplomatic consequences of this
conflict. Georgia only received a chance to be regarded by the world
society as a small country, which needs protection from Russian
aggression. Moreover, she got a change to make its NATO accession real.
But could this country return South Ossetia and Abkhazia under its
jurisdiction? No. Was it able to secure its cities and ensure security
of the civilians? No. Is there a risk that Georgian people will regard
victims as excessive? Undoubtedly. Especially, if the United States do
not take any real steps for restoration of the territorial integrity of
Georgia, that is for establishing Tbilisi's control over South Ossetia
and Abkhazia. Such actions will never be taken. They are not planned
by the United States, which is used to reach its goal at the cost
of others' blood. These goals have been attained in this very case,
as Russia today has real chances to face international condemnation
of its actions, turning into an isolated country, and there is a
great possibility that the process of Russia's condemnation will
continue. Even Mr.Rogozin admits that relations between NATO and Russia
will change. Now the missile defense is being established in Poland.
Who has lost from it? Certainly, Russia. And who has won? Certainly,
the United States. The White House managed to present Russia
unfavorably for the latter, without a single shoot, without a single
loss among soldiers. Is it possible to say that the White House was
not ready to it, that official Washington was not prepared to Russia's
use of force against Georgia? Certainly, no, as for a superstate,
which could attain USSR collapse, it is ridiculous to speak of the
lack of information in such an issue of nearest perspective. It is
clear to everyone that upon completion of the cold war, the Kremlin
lost control over a big political-economic bloc and the military
alliance-NATO-started to approach its borders, which means that Russia
will try to return its status as soon as possible.
The fact that Mikhail Saakashvili's attempt to settle the problem with
separatists in South Ossetia by force, may lead to military aggression
by Russia, which supports separatists on the whole area of the former
USSR, was also realized in the United States, not only because the
Kremlin has never concealed its antipathy to Saakashvili's Georgia. Not
only because, the Kremlin had a formal ground to get involved into this
conflict under pretense of protecting "the citizens of Russia", but
also because the present-day world system of satellite communication
is being spied by the US e-reconnaissance. Almost all private and
state messages, sent by phones, fax or e-mail are being spied. The
task of the US agency of national security-a giant center, spying
the whole world, which has about 100,000 people, working on it and
whose budget reaches $16,000,000,000, is to spy the telephone calls,
fax, e-mails and satellite signals even of insignificant concern for
the United States. In this connection, it is at least untimely to
say that Washington is not ready to military aggression by Russia
against Georgia.
In these conditions, there is a suggestion that the United States
has just betrayed Georgia in its geopolitical war with Russia.
For me it is a great question who is a bigger criminal: Russia, which
openly demonstrated its aggressive nature, or the United States,
which acted skilfully, attaining the settlement of its tasks at the
cost of the blood of small Georgia?
What are we for the United States and Russia?
I am sure that we have witnessed just the first stage of confrontation
between the fully consolidated Russia and the United States for
influence in the South Caucasus region. It proves logically that
confrontation between the OSCE Minsk group co-chairing countries will
deepen and Azerbaijan will have to take it into account and try to get
either Russia or the United States out of the list of the OSCE Minsk
Group co-chairs, for the differences between Washington and Moscow
in their views on the future of the South Caucasus and on the ways
of resolution of Nagorno Karabakh conflict may lead to unpleasant
consequences for us.
Despite great differences in the views on the future of the whole South
Caucasus region between Moscow and Washington, it should be admitted
that the attitude to Azerbaijan by both Russia and the United States
is purely of a customer. For example, Russia considers that Azerbaijan
is just a province of this country, which separated from it due to
the weakness of the Russian state, while the United States regards
Azerbaijan as one of the petrol stations, which should be controlled
for it not to go to Russia.
It means that struggle for our oil will deeper and acquire the most
unexpected forms. Well, not only for ours. Let's recall that of
5 countries, which has the biggest oil resources in the world, the
United States does not control only one of them - Iran. There were only
two a couple of years ago, but they have already "freed" Iraq, which
suggests that Washington will try to subdue Iran as well. Naturally,
in the new conditions of a bipolar world, when Russia demonstrated
the whole world its status of a recovered superstate, Washington's
plans about Iran may face Kremlin's tough resistance. Naturally,
Azerbaijan will suffer from this clash.
What should Azerbaijan do in these conditions? It should try to benefit
from the clashes of the superstates in our region. But for this purpose
it should be noted that both the United States and Russia do not care
about the international law. They recognize the only law: the law of
force. This means that we should become the strongest state of the
South Caucasus in all spheres: economic, democratic, diplomatic and
intellectual. We need to get firm and written guarantees of support of
one of the two existent superstates, in the issue of their military and
political assistance to the restoration of the territorial integrity of
Azerbaijan. Events in Georgia showed that it is impossible to believe
simple promises, as it is impossible to believe Moscow and Washington
that they want to see Azerbaijan as an independent and developed
state. For them, we are just a small oil-rich country, which has an
unsettled territorial conflict. For them, we are just the next stage
of confrontation for leadership in the region and the world. If so,
we will base on our pragmatic interests, being aware that we will not
manage to escape confrontation between the two superstates in the new,
bipolar world.
Today.Az
http://www.today.az/news/politics /47056.html
Aug 19 2008
Azerbaijan
The world has changed after August 8 of 2008.
Whatever some Russian political scientists say, it has again become
bipolar: by its military aggression against Georgia the Kremlin
signaled to the world that the process of the USSR transformation into
a new state, which has the same claims for ruling over the world, has
completed. Today the world needs to base of the fact that Russia is a
real rival of the United States in their fight for world leadership. It
is especially important that such small countries as Azerbaijan need
to realize it, for the combat for influence in the South Caucasus
region between the United States and Russia has just entered a new,
fierce stage of its development.
Bloodless victory of Washington
First of all, it should be noted that only one country-the United
States-has won from Russia's military aggression against Georgia. Let's
see: the United States did not take part in the Russian-Georgian
conflict, which means no victims from its side. But both Georgian and
Russian armed troops had losses. I do not even speak of thousands of
Georgian and Ossetian refugees.
Now let's speak about the diplomatic consequences of this
conflict. Georgia only received a chance to be regarded by the world
society as a small country, which needs protection from Russian
aggression. Moreover, she got a change to make its NATO accession real.
But could this country return South Ossetia and Abkhazia under its
jurisdiction? No. Was it able to secure its cities and ensure security
of the civilians? No. Is there a risk that Georgian people will regard
victims as excessive? Undoubtedly. Especially, if the United States do
not take any real steps for restoration of the territorial integrity of
Georgia, that is for establishing Tbilisi's control over South Ossetia
and Abkhazia. Such actions will never be taken. They are not planned
by the United States, which is used to reach its goal at the cost
of others' blood. These goals have been attained in this very case,
as Russia today has real chances to face international condemnation
of its actions, turning into an isolated country, and there is a
great possibility that the process of Russia's condemnation will
continue. Even Mr.Rogozin admits that relations between NATO and Russia
will change. Now the missile defense is being established in Poland.
Who has lost from it? Certainly, Russia. And who has won? Certainly,
the United States. The White House managed to present Russia
unfavorably for the latter, without a single shoot, without a single
loss among soldiers. Is it possible to say that the White House was
not ready to it, that official Washington was not prepared to Russia's
use of force against Georgia? Certainly, no, as for a superstate,
which could attain USSR collapse, it is ridiculous to speak of the
lack of information in such an issue of nearest perspective. It is
clear to everyone that upon completion of the cold war, the Kremlin
lost control over a big political-economic bloc and the military
alliance-NATO-started to approach its borders, which means that Russia
will try to return its status as soon as possible.
The fact that Mikhail Saakashvili's attempt to settle the problem with
separatists in South Ossetia by force, may lead to military aggression
by Russia, which supports separatists on the whole area of the former
USSR, was also realized in the United States, not only because the
Kremlin has never concealed its antipathy to Saakashvili's Georgia. Not
only because, the Kremlin had a formal ground to get involved into this
conflict under pretense of protecting "the citizens of Russia", but
also because the present-day world system of satellite communication
is being spied by the US e-reconnaissance. Almost all private and
state messages, sent by phones, fax or e-mail are being spied. The
task of the US agency of national security-a giant center, spying
the whole world, which has about 100,000 people, working on it and
whose budget reaches $16,000,000,000, is to spy the telephone calls,
fax, e-mails and satellite signals even of insignificant concern for
the United States. In this connection, it is at least untimely to
say that Washington is not ready to military aggression by Russia
against Georgia.
In these conditions, there is a suggestion that the United States
has just betrayed Georgia in its geopolitical war with Russia.
For me it is a great question who is a bigger criminal: Russia, which
openly demonstrated its aggressive nature, or the United States,
which acted skilfully, attaining the settlement of its tasks at the
cost of the blood of small Georgia?
What are we for the United States and Russia?
I am sure that we have witnessed just the first stage of confrontation
between the fully consolidated Russia and the United States for
influence in the South Caucasus region. It proves logically that
confrontation between the OSCE Minsk group co-chairing countries will
deepen and Azerbaijan will have to take it into account and try to get
either Russia or the United States out of the list of the OSCE Minsk
Group co-chairs, for the differences between Washington and Moscow
in their views on the future of the South Caucasus and on the ways
of resolution of Nagorno Karabakh conflict may lead to unpleasant
consequences for us.
Despite great differences in the views on the future of the whole South
Caucasus region between Moscow and Washington, it should be admitted
that the attitude to Azerbaijan by both Russia and the United States
is purely of a customer. For example, Russia considers that Azerbaijan
is just a province of this country, which separated from it due to
the weakness of the Russian state, while the United States regards
Azerbaijan as one of the petrol stations, which should be controlled
for it not to go to Russia.
It means that struggle for our oil will deeper and acquire the most
unexpected forms. Well, not only for ours. Let's recall that of
5 countries, which has the biggest oil resources in the world, the
United States does not control only one of them - Iran. There were only
two a couple of years ago, but they have already "freed" Iraq, which
suggests that Washington will try to subdue Iran as well. Naturally,
in the new conditions of a bipolar world, when Russia demonstrated
the whole world its status of a recovered superstate, Washington's
plans about Iran may face Kremlin's tough resistance. Naturally,
Azerbaijan will suffer from this clash.
What should Azerbaijan do in these conditions? It should try to benefit
from the clashes of the superstates in our region. But for this purpose
it should be noted that both the United States and Russia do not care
about the international law. They recognize the only law: the law of
force. This means that we should become the strongest state of the
South Caucasus in all spheres: economic, democratic, diplomatic and
intellectual. We need to get firm and written guarantees of support of
one of the two existent superstates, in the issue of their military and
political assistance to the restoration of the territorial integrity of
Azerbaijan. Events in Georgia showed that it is impossible to believe
simple promises, as it is impossible to believe Moscow and Washington
that they want to see Azerbaijan as an independent and developed
state. For them, we are just a small oil-rich country, which has an
unsettled territorial conflict. For them, we are just the next stage
of confrontation for leadership in the region and the world. If so,
we will base on our pragmatic interests, being aware that we will not
manage to escape confrontation between the two superstates in the new,
bipolar world.