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BAKU: Will The Georgia Conflict Set An Example?

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  • BAKU: Will The Georgia Conflict Set An Example?

    WILL THE GEORGIA CONFLICT SET AN EXAMPLE?

    AzerNews Weekly
    Aug 20 2008
    Azerbaijan

    The outcome of the Russia-Georgia military stand-off is crucial for
    talks on settling the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict over Upper (Nagorno)
    Garabagh, an influential international expert says.

    The developments in Georgia make the issue of Azerbaijan's territorial
    integrity extremely relevant, said Zeyno Baran, director of the
    Washington-based Center for Eurasian Policy at the Hudson Institute.

    "Even if Russia does recognize Georgia's territorial integrity, by
    taking the latest actions it infringed upon all existing international
    norms. The outcome of Russia's actions against Georgia will set a very
    important example for those who will decide on actions regarding the
    Garabagh problem," she said.

    Baran said the war with Georgia is "a bad start" for the newly-elected
    Russian President, Dmitry Medvedev.

    The crisis was sparked when pro-Western Georgia launched a military
    offensive to retake the pro-Russian region of South Ossetia, which
    broke away from Georgian rule in the early 1990s. Moscow retaliated
    on August 8 by sending troops to the region which struck, with
    overwhelming force, at Georgian positions. In addition to ground
    troops, Russia used its air force to strike strategic facilities in
    Georgia. Russian President Medvedev, on August 12, ordered an end
    to Russia's military actions in Georgia, claiming Moscow said it was
    seeking "to encourage peace."

    Isa Gambar, leader of the Azerbaijani political party Musavat, said
    developments in the neighboring South Caucasus republic are affecting
    not only the Garabagh conflict, but also the situation throughout
    the entire region.

    "It is too early to say whether this impact will be positive or
    negative, as the ongoing process, itself, has yet to reach its final
    stage. But overall, I believe that what is happening in Georgia will
    have a positive impact on [the resolution of] the Garabagh conflict."

    Gambar said Russian authorities had "completely revealed their essence"
    by their military actions.

    "Moscow once again showed that it has no intention to relinquish its
    ambitions for an empire and is sticking to its aggressive policy,"
    he said.

    Gambar said the free world "now realizes that there is no hope for
    Russia's contribution to the solution of problems regarding the
    territorial integrity of South Caucasus states."

    "The West has realized that Russia is not an element of stability
    in the region, but, on the contrary, a destabilizing factor. In
    keeping with this, I think the impact of the developments in Georgia
    on the solution of the Garabagh problem will be positive," the party
    leader said.

    Indeed, notes observers, Russia has demonstrated what it stands for,
    and the point is that Moscow, disregarding international law, is openly
    supporting separatism. This being said, a valid question arises: how
    can a country backing the separatist regimes in Georgia's breakaway
    republics of Abkhazia and South Ossetia be brokering a settlement to
    the Garabagh conflict?

    Russia, along with the United States and France, co-chairs a team
    of diplomats called the OSCE Minsk Group, which is brokering the
    peace process.

    According to the Musavat chairman, the latest developments have shown
    that Russia now has no right to act as a mediator in the resolution
    of any conflicts.

    "And, as long as Russia is among the 'peacekeepers', any solution to
    the Garabagh conflict is out of the question. So, realizing that truth
    will foster a change in the approach to dealing with the problem,"
    he said.

    Azerbaijani analyst Hikmat Hajizada said the developments in Georgia
    would definitely affect the Garabagh settlement.

    "First of all, it has become clear to many Azerbaijanis that we can't
    just go ahead and launch a war in Upper Garabagh. And this is clear,
    as Russia and Armenia are behind Upper Garabagh [the self-proclaimed
    republic], while we don't have anyone behind us. Hence, based on
    what went on in Georgia, everyone understood that you can't wage a
    one-on-one war with Russia."

    Secondly, Armenia will "feel more comfortable" at peace talks with
    Azerbaijan if Moscow strengthens its positions in South Ossetia. These
    are the adverse ramifications.

    "But there are also positive sides to these events. The Russia-Georgia
    conflict has finally drawn the international community's attention
    to the problems facing the South Caucasus," he said.

    Hajizada said the West has realized that these problems "concern it
    as well, and this should be kept in mind."

    "In light of these developments, I believe Azerbaijan has two ways
    to go: to integrate into NATO or find itself a powerful ally so that
    it can counter the Russia-Armenia alliance," Hajizada added.
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