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MAMUKA ARESHIDZE: AZERBAIJAN'S BEHAVIOUR, ITS CORRECTNESS AND CAUTION, WERE RECEIVING WITH UNDERSTANDING IN GEORGIA
by R. Kerimov
EKHO
Aug 20 2008
Azerbaijan
Catastrophe for Caucasus
[Kerimov] What is the situation like in Georgia?
[Areshidze] The Russian military commanders are saying that they
are withdrawing heavy equipment, that they are withdrawing the rear
services. Very slowly. I would say that they are still standing in
the positions they have seized.
[Passage omitted: known details of the current situation in Georgia]
[Kerimov] The Russian side has accused the Georgian side of failing
to fulfil the so-called six principles of the conflict resolution...
[Areshidze] You know, this is nonsense as there is no-one left
of those who can create obstacles to fulfilling this agreement at
this point. There is just no-one left. What troops are we talking
about? There is no-one, no-one left. Those who survived have
run away. There is only one unit left and it is stationed outside
Tbilisi. As for the statement that saboteurs have appeared, this is
nonsense. Right now we do not have any forces that would think of
something and tackle some military tasks.
[Kerimov] The active military phase that could be observed during
the initial days has subsided. In your opinion, what is the outcome
of the latest Caucasian conflict?
[Areshidze] I think that this is a catastrophe for the Caucasus. Russia
has demonstrated its force. It has shown to everyone else that it
will punish everyone who defies it, incidentally, including Azerbaijan.
Global politics
[Kerimov] Currently, we are watching the reaction on the part
of the United States and it looks like the confrontation between
the United States and Russia has gone beyond the conflict in the
Caucasus. Condoleezza Rice has started criticizing Russia's policy,
including vis-a-vis the resumption of strategic aviation flights. Do
you think that this conflict had a role to play in the general
deterioration of relations between the two countries?
[Areshidze] I think that this is the case. As far as I can tell,
Russia has no intention of stopping as far as Georgia or Ukraine are
concerned. It is not going to turn its national interests, as people
there put it, into a subject of bargaining. And its national interests
extend far beyond the borders of the former Soviet Union. Incidentally,
they include Iran. For example, Russia is very annoyed by the presence
of five aircraft carriers - four American and one British - in the
Persian Gulf. This issue too affects all the events that are unfolding
here. Naturally, this too is global politics and my country has been
dragged into it.
[Kerimov] It is not being ruled out that a new war in the region could
break out and an attack on Iran carried out. Is this realistic? Have
the events in the Caucasus made it likely that the events will unfold
in such a manner?
[Areshidze] It is a fact that the attitude towards Iran will become
harsher. As for a war against Iran, I do not think that this is how the
events will unfold. On the contrary, the West needs to tackle other
issues right now. Not the Georgian one, obviously. But in general,
because Russia is acting in the international arena as an aggressor
rather than a factor of containment.
[Kerimov] Does this concern the West?
[Areshidze] I can see that it is already worried. According to the
recent reports, the fact that Russia would not withdraw from Georgia
is a heavy blow to the prestige of the EU and, first and foremost
Sarkozy (French president) who holds the presidency of the EU. France
is currently revising its attitude towards Russia. This [process]
started after Sarkozy become the French president but, at this point,
[the relations] are dramatically deteriorating. This can be sensed
in the remarks made by the French ambassador in Tbilisi and in the
remarks made by high-ranking French officials and so on. It has been
a long time since something like that happened.
[Kerimov] What kind of relations will be established between Russia
and the United States, Britain, France and so on? Is a confrontation
between the West and the East possible?
[Areshidze] It is possible. I am familiar with the positions of some
Western countries. It is mainly the Old Europe that wants to be more
liberal vis-a-vis Russia because it has its own interests, its own calm
life. They do not want to change all of it. East European countries,
however, are trying to make them to come to their senses. Naturally,
the United States and Britain are trying to do that too. Currently,
they do not have a common position. I think, however, that this
common position will take shape some time soon. It might have a form
of harsh policy or harsh and liberal policy but it will not be the
same one which they had a few weeks ago.
[Kerimov] Will it become harsher at any rate?
[Areshidze] I think that it will be harsher not because Georgia has
suffered but because their own comfort comes first.
[Kerimov] There is an opinion that the United States has sacrificed
Georgia in order to cause confrontation between Russia and other
countries, specifically, the countries of the West, and to regain
the role of the world order protector...
[Areshidze] I have heard this. Maybe. But I cannot say that, if they
did so, it was a sacrifice. It was an experiment. If this theory
is correct, they wanted to see how Russia will behave to show it to
others... Everyone who works on these issues, including myself, knew
about a plan which the Russian General Staff and the Russian leadership
has carried out. I published this plan in the Georgian press on 10
July of this year. Going back to the issue, however, this theory does
have a logic to it. You know, I can ask you a counter-question. Why
was a grenade detonated in a mosque in Azerbaijan?
[Kerimov] There are different theories.
[Areshidze] The same holds true here. Nothing happens without a reason.
Azerbaijan's position received "with understanding"
[Kerimov] Georgia made a statement on its withdrawal from the CIS. What
repercussions could this decision have for Georgia itself?
[Areshidze] There are positive and negative aspects to this issue. The
CIS by itself is a lifeless organization. The CIS leadership did not
even react to what happened between Georgia and Russia. As for the
withdrawal, of course, Georgia will incur certain losses. But these
losses can be recouped. Yes, the Russian side said that Georgia will
lose 300m dollars but I do not believe this. These are not the figures
named by our economists, who are working in this direction.
[Kerimov] Let me rephrase the question: will Georgia's withdrawal
from the CIS result in more losses or gains for Georgia itself?
[Areshidze] At this point, there is more to gain, of course.
[Kerimov] When President Mikheil Saakashvili made a statement on
Georgia's withdrawal from the CIS, he called on other countries to
follow this example. Against this background, official Baku stated that
Azerbaijan is not considering the issue of its withdrawal from the
CIS but, at the same time, respects Georgia's choice. How did people
in Georgia perceive Azerbaijan's decision not to withdraw from the CIS?
[Areshidze] This is not even being discussed. Azerbaijan has the
right to settle its problems itself.
[Kerimov] Perhaps, in private conversations...
[Areshidze] This is not being discussed because, at this stage,
Azerbaijan is doing everything it can in terms of humanitarian aid
and support in general. As for discussions at high levels, I do
not know this but I think that this issue is not being raised there
either. What matters is that the countries maintain the agreements
that we signed with them within the framework of the CIS.
[Kerimov] How do people in Georgia view Azerbaijan's position in
this conflict?
[Areshidze] In general, Azerbaijan's behaviour, its correctness and
caution, were received with understanding in Georgia, let us put it
this way. And this is true because there was nothing else Azerbaijan
could do. Manoeuvres are about to begin in Armenia. Azerbaijan has
found itself in a difficult situation because it had to shut down a
pipeline, suffered certain losses. An uncomfortable situation took
shape. The Azerbaijani authorities know that manoeuvres are about to
begin. Right now, Azerbaijan itself is not in a comfortable position
and I think that it is incorrect, wrong and counterproductive to raise
issues about why Azerbaijan did or did not behave in a certain way.
[Kerimov] What will happen to the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars transport artery?
[Areshidze] I think that, if the implementation of these plans is
postponed, it will be postponed for a short period of time. I think
that these plans will be postponed. At this point, nothing should be
done, let alone building. Everything is out of the question as long
as the [Russian] troops are on the territory of Georgia proper. I
think that the construction will be suspended for a while but will
be resumed later.
[Kerimov] What is the degree of trust enjoyed by Saakashvili among
the population given the ongoing events?
[Areshidze] It has, of course, decreased. The sociological surveys
that have been carried out give that feeling.
[Passage omitted: Areshidze says he cannot predict whether Georgia
has lost Abkhazia and South Ossetia]
[Kerimov] There are opinions that these events will affect the Nagornyy
Karabakh conflict...
[Areshidze] As I said, it is hard to make a forecast. I cannot make
it because I do not know how the manoeuvres that are about to be
carried out in Armenia will end. The genie is out of the bottle,
Russia is carrying out an aggressive policy vis-a-vis the South
Caucasus in general and Ukraine. You can draw your own conclusions.
[Kerimov] What about Ukraine's and Georgia's accession to NATO?
[Areshidze] Some bargaining is taking place behind Georgia's and
Ukraine's back too. I can feel it but I cannot say what the subject of
bargaining is, what they are trying to agree on. I think that the door
to NATO is open for Ukraine but it will be hard for Georgia. On the one
hand, it is open, but it is hard to say how this is going to happen
given that there are Russian troops on its territory. Georgia cannot
[recognize] the independence of these republics right now [and say]:
"There are no conflicts so I can join NATO now."
[Kerimov] There is an opinion that Georgia will join NATO but will
lose South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Do you consider this to be feasible?
[Areshidze] No, because this is an opinion, not a position. It is
fatal for Georgia, for Georgia's role to have a Russian grouping
stationed so close to the Transcaucasian road.
by R. Kerimov
EKHO
Aug 20 2008
Azerbaijan
Catastrophe for Caucasus
[Kerimov] What is the situation like in Georgia?
[Areshidze] The Russian military commanders are saying that they
are withdrawing heavy equipment, that they are withdrawing the rear
services. Very slowly. I would say that they are still standing in
the positions they have seized.
[Passage omitted: known details of the current situation in Georgia]
[Kerimov] The Russian side has accused the Georgian side of failing
to fulfil the so-called six principles of the conflict resolution...
[Areshidze] You know, this is nonsense as there is no-one left
of those who can create obstacles to fulfilling this agreement at
this point. There is just no-one left. What troops are we talking
about? There is no-one, no-one left. Those who survived have
run away. There is only one unit left and it is stationed outside
Tbilisi. As for the statement that saboteurs have appeared, this is
nonsense. Right now we do not have any forces that would think of
something and tackle some military tasks.
[Kerimov] The active military phase that could be observed during
the initial days has subsided. In your opinion, what is the outcome
of the latest Caucasian conflict?
[Areshidze] I think that this is a catastrophe for the Caucasus. Russia
has demonstrated its force. It has shown to everyone else that it
will punish everyone who defies it, incidentally, including Azerbaijan.
Global politics
[Kerimov] Currently, we are watching the reaction on the part
of the United States and it looks like the confrontation between
the United States and Russia has gone beyond the conflict in the
Caucasus. Condoleezza Rice has started criticizing Russia's policy,
including vis-a-vis the resumption of strategic aviation flights. Do
you think that this conflict had a role to play in the general
deterioration of relations between the two countries?
[Areshidze] I think that this is the case. As far as I can tell,
Russia has no intention of stopping as far as Georgia or Ukraine are
concerned. It is not going to turn its national interests, as people
there put it, into a subject of bargaining. And its national interests
extend far beyond the borders of the former Soviet Union. Incidentally,
they include Iran. For example, Russia is very annoyed by the presence
of five aircraft carriers - four American and one British - in the
Persian Gulf. This issue too affects all the events that are unfolding
here. Naturally, this too is global politics and my country has been
dragged into it.
[Kerimov] It is not being ruled out that a new war in the region could
break out and an attack on Iran carried out. Is this realistic? Have
the events in the Caucasus made it likely that the events will unfold
in such a manner?
[Areshidze] It is a fact that the attitude towards Iran will become
harsher. As for a war against Iran, I do not think that this is how the
events will unfold. On the contrary, the West needs to tackle other
issues right now. Not the Georgian one, obviously. But in general,
because Russia is acting in the international arena as an aggressor
rather than a factor of containment.
[Kerimov] Does this concern the West?
[Areshidze] I can see that it is already worried. According to the
recent reports, the fact that Russia would not withdraw from Georgia
is a heavy blow to the prestige of the EU and, first and foremost
Sarkozy (French president) who holds the presidency of the EU. France
is currently revising its attitude towards Russia. This [process]
started after Sarkozy become the French president but, at this point,
[the relations] are dramatically deteriorating. This can be sensed
in the remarks made by the French ambassador in Tbilisi and in the
remarks made by high-ranking French officials and so on. It has been
a long time since something like that happened.
[Kerimov] What kind of relations will be established between Russia
and the United States, Britain, France and so on? Is a confrontation
between the West and the East possible?
[Areshidze] It is possible. I am familiar with the positions of some
Western countries. It is mainly the Old Europe that wants to be more
liberal vis-a-vis Russia because it has its own interests, its own calm
life. They do not want to change all of it. East European countries,
however, are trying to make them to come to their senses. Naturally,
the United States and Britain are trying to do that too. Currently,
they do not have a common position. I think, however, that this
common position will take shape some time soon. It might have a form
of harsh policy or harsh and liberal policy but it will not be the
same one which they had a few weeks ago.
[Kerimov] Will it become harsher at any rate?
[Areshidze] I think that it will be harsher not because Georgia has
suffered but because their own comfort comes first.
[Kerimov] There is an opinion that the United States has sacrificed
Georgia in order to cause confrontation between Russia and other
countries, specifically, the countries of the West, and to regain
the role of the world order protector...
[Areshidze] I have heard this. Maybe. But I cannot say that, if they
did so, it was a sacrifice. It was an experiment. If this theory
is correct, they wanted to see how Russia will behave to show it to
others... Everyone who works on these issues, including myself, knew
about a plan which the Russian General Staff and the Russian leadership
has carried out. I published this plan in the Georgian press on 10
July of this year. Going back to the issue, however, this theory does
have a logic to it. You know, I can ask you a counter-question. Why
was a grenade detonated in a mosque in Azerbaijan?
[Kerimov] There are different theories.
[Areshidze] The same holds true here. Nothing happens without a reason.
Azerbaijan's position received "with understanding"
[Kerimov] Georgia made a statement on its withdrawal from the CIS. What
repercussions could this decision have for Georgia itself?
[Areshidze] There are positive and negative aspects to this issue. The
CIS by itself is a lifeless organization. The CIS leadership did not
even react to what happened between Georgia and Russia. As for the
withdrawal, of course, Georgia will incur certain losses. But these
losses can be recouped. Yes, the Russian side said that Georgia will
lose 300m dollars but I do not believe this. These are not the figures
named by our economists, who are working in this direction.
[Kerimov] Let me rephrase the question: will Georgia's withdrawal
from the CIS result in more losses or gains for Georgia itself?
[Areshidze] At this point, there is more to gain, of course.
[Kerimov] When President Mikheil Saakashvili made a statement on
Georgia's withdrawal from the CIS, he called on other countries to
follow this example. Against this background, official Baku stated that
Azerbaijan is not considering the issue of its withdrawal from the
CIS but, at the same time, respects Georgia's choice. How did people
in Georgia perceive Azerbaijan's decision not to withdraw from the CIS?
[Areshidze] This is not even being discussed. Azerbaijan has the
right to settle its problems itself.
[Kerimov] Perhaps, in private conversations...
[Areshidze] This is not being discussed because, at this stage,
Azerbaijan is doing everything it can in terms of humanitarian aid
and support in general. As for discussions at high levels, I do
not know this but I think that this issue is not being raised there
either. What matters is that the countries maintain the agreements
that we signed with them within the framework of the CIS.
[Kerimov] How do people in Georgia view Azerbaijan's position in
this conflict?
[Areshidze] In general, Azerbaijan's behaviour, its correctness and
caution, were received with understanding in Georgia, let us put it
this way. And this is true because there was nothing else Azerbaijan
could do. Manoeuvres are about to begin in Armenia. Azerbaijan has
found itself in a difficult situation because it had to shut down a
pipeline, suffered certain losses. An uncomfortable situation took
shape. The Azerbaijani authorities know that manoeuvres are about to
begin. Right now, Azerbaijan itself is not in a comfortable position
and I think that it is incorrect, wrong and counterproductive to raise
issues about why Azerbaijan did or did not behave in a certain way.
[Kerimov] What will happen to the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars transport artery?
[Areshidze] I think that, if the implementation of these plans is
postponed, it will be postponed for a short period of time. I think
that these plans will be postponed. At this point, nothing should be
done, let alone building. Everything is out of the question as long
as the [Russian] troops are on the territory of Georgia proper. I
think that the construction will be suspended for a while but will
be resumed later.
[Kerimov] What is the degree of trust enjoyed by Saakashvili among
the population given the ongoing events?
[Areshidze] It has, of course, decreased. The sociological surveys
that have been carried out give that feeling.
[Passage omitted: Areshidze says he cannot predict whether Georgia
has lost Abkhazia and South Ossetia]
[Kerimov] There are opinions that these events will affect the Nagornyy
Karabakh conflict...
[Areshidze] As I said, it is hard to make a forecast. I cannot make
it because I do not know how the manoeuvres that are about to be
carried out in Armenia will end. The genie is out of the bottle,
Russia is carrying out an aggressive policy vis-a-vis the South
Caucasus in general and Ukraine. You can draw your own conclusions.
[Kerimov] What about Ukraine's and Georgia's accession to NATO?
[Areshidze] Some bargaining is taking place behind Georgia's and
Ukraine's back too. I can feel it but I cannot say what the subject of
bargaining is, what they are trying to agree on. I think that the door
to NATO is open for Ukraine but it will be hard for Georgia. On the one
hand, it is open, but it is hard to say how this is going to happen
given that there are Russian troops on its territory. Georgia cannot
[recognize] the independence of these republics right now [and say]:
"There are no conflicts so I can join NATO now."
[Kerimov] There is an opinion that Georgia will join NATO but will
lose South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Do you consider this to be feasible?
[Areshidze] No, because this is an opinion, not a position. It is
fatal for Georgia, for Georgia's role to have a Russian grouping
stationed so close to the Transcaucasian road.