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  • ANKARA: Turkey's Caucasus boat likely to sail

    Today's Zaman, Turkey
    Aug 24 2008

    Turkey's Caucasus boat likely to sail


    Turkey is in a bid to be the shipyard for the construction of a boat
    called "Caucasia Stability and Cooperation Platform," with five
    sailors on the boat having "deep-frozen conflicts" with each other.


    Views regarding the proposed platform differ, with some suggesting
    that this boat is destined to sink even before setting sail for the
    first time, while others say that it may be a good idea for those five
    sailors -- Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Russia and Turkey -- to be on
    their own in the high seas so they can put their heads together to
    discuss their issues with each other. Ankara's proposal for the
    platform came after a regional crisis erupted following a Georgian
    military offensive in its Russian-backed breakaway region of South
    Ossetia earlier this month. In the first half of August, PM Recep
    Tayyip ErdoÄ?an paid successive visits to Moscow and Tbilisi and
    earlier this week traveled to Baku to promote and gain support for the
    proposed platform. Both Georgian and Russian leaders said they would
    welcome the idea, while a joint statement released by ErdoÄ?an
    and Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev said Baku had approached the
    proposal "positively."

    Armenia and Azerbaijan are in a state of enmity due to Armenia's
    continued occupation of Nagorno-Karabakh in Azerbaijan, and observers
    say a regional alliance including both countries as members may be
    difficult to implement. With Armenian troops still in
    Nagorno-Karabakh, Azerbaijani leadership is unlikely to warm to any
    sort of cooperation with Yerevan.

    Speaking at a joint press conference with Aliyev, ErdoÄ?an did
    not refer to Armenia and said instead Turkey was willing to further
    cooperation with Azerbaijan and Georgia for peace and stability in the
    Caucasus. He also said the Nagorno-Karabakh problem should be resolved
    on the basis of principles of international law and through peaceful
    ways. Aliyev thanked Turkey for its supportive stance.

    Ahead of his departure for Baku on Aug. 20, however, ErdoÄ?an
    disclosed Ankara's eagerness for Armenia's participation in a
    "Caucasus alliance," as he said it would greatly increase regional
    stability. He said the form of talks with Armenia would be set
    following Babacan's consultations with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey
    Lavrov.

    In the meantime, as of Aug. 16 and 17, Babacan initiated a hectic
    telephone diplomacy, having talks with US Secretary of State
    Condoleezza Rice; EU term president France's Foreign Minister Bernard
    Kouchner; German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier; Council of
    Europe term president Swedish Foreign Minister Carl Bildt; and
    Alexander Stubb, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in
    Europe (OSCE) chairman-in-office and Finnish foreign minister.

    His talks focusing on Turkey's proposal took place before he departed
    for Brussels to participate in a key meeting of NATO foreign
    ministers, who had emergency talks to reconsider the alliance's ties
    with Russia after the conflict in Georgia.

    As of Thursday this week, remarks by Georgian Ambassador to Turkey
    Grigol Mgaloblishvili, who firmly said that his country would not
    participate in the proposed cooperation platform for the Caucasus as
    long as Russia doesn't entirely withdraw its forces from Georgian
    soil, led to curiosity over whether Tbilisi's initial welcome to the
    idea was just out of courtesy.

    In an initial reaction to the Turkish plans to involve Armenia in the
    Caucasus talks, Armenian Foreign Minister Edward Nalbandian said
    Yerevan welcomed the Turkish initiative. "Armenia was always in favor
    of dialogue and talks, particularly on the issues concerning
    cooperation and security in our region. The Turkish prime minister's
    statement on the intention to start talks with Armenia on this agenda
    could be welcomed," he said in a statement in response to a question
    posed by Today's Zaman on Wednesday.

    It is not clear what shape the planned talks with Armenia will
    take. Turkey severed its ties with Armenia in the early 1990s in
    protest of the Armenian occupation of Nagorno-Karabakh. According to
    official Turkish policy, normalization of ties depends on Armenian
    withdrawal from Nagorno-Karabakh, the termination of the Armenian
    policy of supporting claims of an Armenian genocide at the hands of
    the Ottoman Empire and an official endorsement by Armenia of the
    current borders between the two countries.

    As of Friday afternoon Babacan, as expected, initiated a telephone
    conversation with Russia's Lavrov and spoke of the proposed platform.

    "During the conversation, Mr. Babacan conveyed our concrete proposals
    concerning the Caucasia Stability and Cooperation Platform to the
    Russian side," Foreign Ministry spokesperson Burak
    Ã-zügergin told the Anatolia news agency. The two ministers
    decided to meet next week within this framework, Ã-zügergin
    said, noting that the two also decided to hold another meeting in
    early September.

    Russia's 'one package for all'

    If this platform can at least bring together in Ankara the foreign
    ministers of the two sides -- Georgia and Russia, who say that they
    will not meet with each other for the time being -- then it will take
    an important step on the way to building peace and stability in the
    Caucasus, believes Associate Professor Kasım Kamer.

    South Ossetia, Abkhazia and Nagorno-Karabakh are all "frozen
    conflicts," Kamer, a Caucasia expert of the Ankara-based International
    Strategic Research Organization (ISRO/ USAK), first of all noted,
    while speaking with Sunday's Zaman.

    "OSCE [the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe] is
    ineffective in regards to the Nagorno-Karabakh issue, since Russia is
    one of the co-chairs in the OSCE Minsk Group. If such a Caucasia
    platform is established, Russia's participation in this body is
    inevitable, and if Turkey can get Russia and Georgia together under
    the same roof, then this will be a success by itself," Kamer said.

    "Both Russia and Georgia do not want to give up South Ossetia and
    Abkhazia at the same time. However there may be a bargaining on the
    two regions, while Georgia will definitely be very stubborn, as it
    considers both of the regions its own soil. On the other side, there
    is a deep lack of confidence vis-à-vis Russia, a lack of
    confidence which makes expectation of great consequences from this
    platform in the short run very difficult. Russia's main goal was to
    topple Saakashvili with its recent move; it would either walk to
    Tbilisi in order to enter the capital or it would force Georgia to
    give major concessions, like withdrawing half of its troops from the
    disputed regions. Nevertheless, none took place, and it seems
    Saakashvili will remain in power for a considerable time. Thus Russia
    couldn't reach its eventual goal," he explained.

    The Nagorno-Karabakh factor

    When asked about the possibility of any improvement in resolution of
    the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijan in the
    event of their sitting around the same table within the framework of
    the proposed platform, Kamer underlined that Armenia's acceptance of
    Turkey's mediation in the international legal sense doesn't seem
    possible, since Turkey is a party in this dispute. On the other hand,
    the same thing applies to Russia's mediation from the point of view of
    Azerbaijan, as according to Azerbaijan, Russia is a party in this
    dispute, he said.

    "What could happen is this: The parties come together around the same
    table, and they can take steps regarding secondary issues related to
    Nagorno-Karabakh, for example the refugee issue. In the long run,
    Russia has a tendency to introduce the issues of Nagorno-Karabakh,
    South Ossetia and Abkhazia in one package, which will not be
    acceptable for a large majority of the international community because
    the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh is entirely different from all
    others, since Armenia is de facto on Azerbaijan soil via invading
    Nagorno-Karabakh. Following the unilateral declaration of Kosovo's
    independence and its recognition by the world, Russia has become
    increasingly aggressive concerning the issue of Nagorno-Karabakh. But
    it is impossible to put these issues in the same file -- neither
    geographically nor historically [can this be done]. Even looking at
    the significant differences of population between Kosovo and these
    regions make this point clear," Kamer said.

    "We also have this triangle of Caucasia, the United States and
    Turkey. The US is actually looking favorably at all kinds of moves of
    rapprochement between Turkey and Armenia. Yet a significant step by
    Armenia is not easy to be taken in the short term due to the clout of
    the hard-liner Karabakh clan with the leadership of the country. As a
    matter of fact, Turkey's conditions for reopening the border and
    re-establishing diplomatic relations are quite moderate," he added.

    Does anyone have a better idea?

    According to retired Ambassador Ã-zdem Sanberk, a former Foreign
    Ministry undersecretary and an esteemed foreign policy analyst,
    Turkish diplomacy has taken a very appropriate step that deserves
    appreciation -- via maturation of the idea of the Caucasia
    platform. Sanberk also has a strong conviction that this initiative is
    destined to "take off," given that Russia, one of the two countries
    key to rendering the initiative successful, has approached Turkey's
    idea positively. The other is the United States, which should
    definitely not be excluded from this process, he says.

    "If someone has a better idea, then s/he should come forward and tell
    us this better idea," Sanberk told Sunday's Zaman, saying that he
    could not agree with those analysts and politicians who suggest that
    Turkey's proposed platform is "a stillborn idea."

    "Such an initiative could not be taken without having Russia's
    consent, and Turkey gained this consent. Nobody takes initiatives with
    consequences or success being taken for granted, as there is always a
    calculated risk. When Turkey initiated the Black Sea Economic
    Cooperation back in the early 1990s, the same kinds of comments were
    made, suggesting that the idea was not realistic at all. But it took
    off. Later it lost its vigorousness due to neglect by the governments
    of the time, starting from 1996," Sanberk said, while bringing to mind
    a similar idea for constituting a Caucasia cooperation platform put
    forward in 1999 by the then-President Süleyman Demirel.

    "Unfortunately the coalition government led by late Prime Minister
    Bülent Ecevit and the next president, Ahmet Necdet Sezer,
    neglected the idea put forward by Demirel purely on political
    concerns, since it was not first floated by them, and it failed before
    it was born," Sanbek continued.

    As for the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) coming to
    power for the first time in 2002, it handled the European Union
    membership process as a priority and made a very appropriate decision
    by doing so, Sanberk said, adding however, he wished the AK Party
    government had also made the Caucasus platform idea a priority and had
    matured it simultaneously with the other priorities, such as playing a
    key role in the Middle East.

    "When governments give clear signals about their priorities, the
    people of Turkey read this message and act accordingly and make the
    necessary sacrifices falling on their shoulders. In the case of the
    absence of clear signals and messages, extreme ideas such as Turkey
    joining the Shanghai Five or its establishing a new front with Iran
    and Russia gain currency in the town," the veteran diplomat said,
    highlighting the influence of foreign policy messages on domestic
    politics as well.

    Turning back to the proposed Caucasia platform, Sanberk said that
    today's circumstances were not sustainable for Russia, although it had
    manipulated very good chess maneuvers in the recent incidents by
    showing off its military capacity at a time when the European
    continent's security capacity was overstretched.

    "But now it needs sustainable power, and it cannot rely forever and
    solely upon the ups and downs in natural gas prices to maintain its
    power. This should be well explained by Turkey to Russia, with which
    it has a strategic relationship. Moscow should understand that the
    Soviet Union cannot be re-established and that the current situation
    is not in its interests, either. As for the Georgian ambassador's
    remarks, they are not surprising, Tbilisi is naturally trying to
    maintain its position at this phase.

    "I find comments suggesting that a new cold war era has started as
    exaggerated, but it is obvious that the cards are being
    redistributed. And that this is happening -- putting forward
    constructive and positive ideas -- as Ankara has been doing, is
    extremely good," Sanberk said. "The fact that this idea has not been
    rejected spells that it will be able to stand on its own feet. Even if
    these five countries come together and set a date for their second
    meeting without making a concrete decision over disputed issues, this
    will be a real success."

    `EU, US should be well informed'

    As of Tuesday, during a briefing at the US State Department's Foreign
    Press Center on the "Situation in Georgia and Implications for the
    Caucasus," Prime Minister Recep Tayyip ErdoÄ?an's proposal for a
    Caucasus cooperation platform appeared to have received a lukewarm
    response from the State Department's top diplomat for Eurasian and
    Caucasian affairs.

    "I must say I was surprised," Matt Bryza, the US deputy assistant
    secretary of state for European and Eurasian affairs, was quoted as
    saying by the Anatolia news agency at the briefing. "I hadn't been
    briefed that that was going to happen. We have a partnership with
    Turkey on the Caucasus, and I presume that we'll be able to work
    together very closely now with our allies in Turkey since we do have
    clearly shared interests, not to mention values, throughout the
    Caucasus with our Turkish ally."

    According to Associate Professor Kasım Kamer, the United States
    would like to actively take place in such a platform, and those
    remarks reflect their disappointment over the perception they got as
    if they were being excluded on purpose from this platform by Turkey.

    "Russia's actions in Gori led to an environment of cold war, and
    Washington was actually not expecting such action by Russia, which
    fuelled already existing doubts over Moscow's respect for Georgia's
    sovereignty. All of these facts might have led to such a distanced
    manner by the United States; however, in the long term, this platform
    is also in the interest of the United States," Kamer, of the
    Ankara-based International Strategic Research Organization (ISRO/
    USAK), told Sunday's Zaman.

    Retired Ambassador Ã-zdem Sanberk, a former Foreign Ministry
    undersecretary, was actively involved in 2001 in the arrangement and
    conduct of series of conferences under the title "Seeking Stability in
    the Caucasus," initiated by the Ä°stanbul-based Turkish Economic
    and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV).

    The late Ä°smail Cem, then foreign minister, had also attended
    those conferences -- during which establishment of a Caucasus
    Stability Pact was discussed.

    "Then we were discussing the involvement of the United States and Iran
    in the issue; today there is no US aspect of the issue at the time
    being, but Washington should definitely be persuaded to effectively
    support this initiative," Sanberk told Sunday's Zaman.

    "The Western world in general, for example via NATO, and the United
    States in particular should be appropriately briefed that their
    interests in the region will be protected. In this regard,
    Mr. Babacan's telephone talks are very positive. Yet I believe that
    the level should be upgraded with Mr. Prime Minister [Recep Tayyip]
    ErdoÄ?an holding talks with EU term president France's leader
    Nicolas Sarkozy as well as with the EU's foreign policy chief Javier
    Solana," the veteran diplomat added.

    Approached by Sunday's Zaman on Friday and invited to comment on the
    Turkish proposal, US Embassy Press Attaché Kathryn Schalow
    first of all praised Turkey's efforts as a regional player.

    "As we have seen in the recent past, Turkey has played an important
    role in the region, and we hope that Turkey's new efforts to promote
    stability in the South Caucasus will be in harmony with other
    international efforts to promote peace, prosperity and stability in
    the Caucasus -- including through NATO, the EU and the OSCE," Schalow
    told Sunday's Zaman. "And we look forward to consulting with Ankara on
    its Caucasus platform concept," she added. Ankara Today's Zaman

    24 August 2008, Sunday
    EMÄ°NE KART ANKARA
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