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THE PECULIARITIES OF POLARIZED SOCIETY
Lilit Poghosyan
Hayots Ashkhar Daily
02 Dec 08
Armenia
The recent "Gallup" polls which revealed President Serge Sargsyan's
high rating 10 months after the presidential elections raised a
wave of protest and disappointment among the radicals. And now these
people curse the specialists of "Gallup" the same way as they hurled
abuse in the address of "Sociometer" research center and the British
"Populus" organization. Why do the native revolutionaries dislike the
sociologists? To what extent do the "Gallup" polls reflect the true
opinion of the public? Below we present sociologist AHARON ADIBEKYAN's
views with regard to this and many other questions of "Hayots Ashkharh"
"In general, a polarized society does not accept what is considered
relative truth; everyone thinks his/her opinion to be the only
truth. If a 3rd, 4th and 5th party makes assessments and publicizes
certain data which do not coincide with his/her opinion, such statement
is definitely considered false, biased etc.
In this particular case, if the goal was to reveal the opinion of the
public, it should have been mentioned how each social group answered
each particular question, and the proponents of each leader and
political figure should have been singled out based on the place of
their residence, educational background, income e tc. In this respect,
the 'Gallup' polls are not that perfect, although they reflect the
real situation to a certain extent.
In general, our data reveal that 60 percent of society supports the
authorities, and 40 percent supports the opposition. That's to say, the
pre-electoral status quo, by and large, remains unchanged. It's quite
a different matter that there are questions which are more important
in the present-day situation. For instance, the Karabakh issue, the
global economic crisis (i.e. how society responds to the tendencies
of the deepening international crisis and who should bear the whole
burden: the employee whose salary may be reduced, the employer who
may be partially deprived of his incomes or the state which should try
to mitigate the impact of such crisis). These issues are more urgent.
"What about the Karabakh issue? Hasn't it lost its urgency after the
visit of the Minsk Group Co-Chairs?"
"I think the situation has remained unchanged. The hopes that the
Declaration of the Co-Chairs might lead to the settlement of the
conflict purely through political methods evaporated after President
Aliev made certain statements. In fact, Azerbaijan is not against
the prospect of the military 'settlement'. That's to say, they are
not ready to recognize the independence of Karabakh.
The same is the situation here. The vast majority of the population
of=2 0 Armenia does not see Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan. This is
a complex geo-political problem, and by the way, the United States
has had such precedent in its history. But when the conversation goes
around other countries, the Americans, for some reason, forget about
their own history.
If, in the near future, the parties do not find any solution based
on mutual concessions, the Karabakh issue will be frozen for 10-20
years to come. In this period, the Armenians will have to use all
their potentials, include into agenda the issue of the Armenian
refugees deported from Azerbaijan, the problem of the sub-region of
Shahoumyan and the massacres of Sumgayit and Baku. Unfortunately,
the Armenian party is passive, whereas the Azeris pursue the policy
of launching attack and use all the tribunals for moving forward with
their questions."
"To what extent can the global international crisis influence the
public moods and arouse new discontents in society?"
"The deepening of the economic crisis may produce a more essential
impact if the Government fails undertake relevant steps against it. We
are required to re-orient our markets. China may be a perspective
market for us, as it may purchase raw materials such as copper,
molybdenum, pure iron etc.
Besides, we are required to establish close ties with those countries
whose economy has developed a kind of 'immunity' against international
0D crises. If Armenia is integrated to the economic system of Iran
based on the division of labor, such crises will not have a significant
impact on our economic development.
As regards the transfers from foreign countries, I have to mention
that our compatriots who work abroad will never forget about their
relatives living in Armenia, no matter how much the situation may
change for the worse.
Anyway, considering the fact that our budget largely develops due to
the sale of copper and molybdenum and the reprocession of stones,
it's clear that we will suffer certain losses. In such situation,
the Government must try to receive certain loans from the World Bank
and the International Currency Fund for bridging the budgetary gap. I
think the situation will anyway deteriorate in spring and summer,
but if the 20 powerful countries managed to overcome the crisis with
joint efforts, Armenia will also find a way out of this situation
without serious instabilities."
Lilit Poghosyan
Hayots Ashkhar Daily
02 Dec 08
Armenia
The recent "Gallup" polls which revealed President Serge Sargsyan's
high rating 10 months after the presidential elections raised a
wave of protest and disappointment among the radicals. And now these
people curse the specialists of "Gallup" the same way as they hurled
abuse in the address of "Sociometer" research center and the British
"Populus" organization. Why do the native revolutionaries dislike the
sociologists? To what extent do the "Gallup" polls reflect the true
opinion of the public? Below we present sociologist AHARON ADIBEKYAN's
views with regard to this and many other questions of "Hayots Ashkharh"
"In general, a polarized society does not accept what is considered
relative truth; everyone thinks his/her opinion to be the only
truth. If a 3rd, 4th and 5th party makes assessments and publicizes
certain data which do not coincide with his/her opinion, such statement
is definitely considered false, biased etc.
In this particular case, if the goal was to reveal the opinion of the
public, it should have been mentioned how each social group answered
each particular question, and the proponents of each leader and
political figure should have been singled out based on the place of
their residence, educational background, income e tc. In this respect,
the 'Gallup' polls are not that perfect, although they reflect the
real situation to a certain extent.
In general, our data reveal that 60 percent of society supports the
authorities, and 40 percent supports the opposition. That's to say, the
pre-electoral status quo, by and large, remains unchanged. It's quite
a different matter that there are questions which are more important
in the present-day situation. For instance, the Karabakh issue, the
global economic crisis (i.e. how society responds to the tendencies
of the deepening international crisis and who should bear the whole
burden: the employee whose salary may be reduced, the employer who
may be partially deprived of his incomes or the state which should try
to mitigate the impact of such crisis). These issues are more urgent.
"What about the Karabakh issue? Hasn't it lost its urgency after the
visit of the Minsk Group Co-Chairs?"
"I think the situation has remained unchanged. The hopes that the
Declaration of the Co-Chairs might lead to the settlement of the
conflict purely through political methods evaporated after President
Aliev made certain statements. In fact, Azerbaijan is not against
the prospect of the military 'settlement'. That's to say, they are
not ready to recognize the independence of Karabakh.
The same is the situation here. The vast majority of the population
of=2 0 Armenia does not see Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan. This is
a complex geo-political problem, and by the way, the United States
has had such precedent in its history. But when the conversation goes
around other countries, the Americans, for some reason, forget about
their own history.
If, in the near future, the parties do not find any solution based
on mutual concessions, the Karabakh issue will be frozen for 10-20
years to come. In this period, the Armenians will have to use all
their potentials, include into agenda the issue of the Armenian
refugees deported from Azerbaijan, the problem of the sub-region of
Shahoumyan and the massacres of Sumgayit and Baku. Unfortunately,
the Armenian party is passive, whereas the Azeris pursue the policy
of launching attack and use all the tribunals for moving forward with
their questions."
"To what extent can the global international crisis influence the
public moods and arouse new discontents in society?"
"The deepening of the economic crisis may produce a more essential
impact if the Government fails undertake relevant steps against it. We
are required to re-orient our markets. China may be a perspective
market for us, as it may purchase raw materials such as copper,
molybdenum, pure iron etc.
Besides, we are required to establish close ties with those countries
whose economy has developed a kind of 'immunity' against international
0D crises. If Armenia is integrated to the economic system of Iran
based on the division of labor, such crises will not have a significant
impact on our economic development.
As regards the transfers from foreign countries, I have to mention
that our compatriots who work abroad will never forget about their
relatives living in Armenia, no matter how much the situation may
change for the worse.
Anyway, considering the fact that our budget largely develops due to
the sale of copper and molybdenum and the reprocession of stones,
it's clear that we will suffer certain losses. In such situation,
the Government must try to receive certain loans from the World Bank
and the International Currency Fund for bridging the budgetary gap. I
think the situation will anyway deteriorate in spring and summer,
but if the 20 powerful countries managed to overcome the crisis with
joint efforts, Armenia will also find a way out of this situation
without serious instabilities."