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`Eastern Partnership' has been adopted to keep the balance of power

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  • `Eastern Partnership' has been adopted to keep the balance of power

    PanARMENIAN.Net

    `Eastern Partnership' has been adopted to keep the balance of power
    that was upset on the post-Soviet territory

    Unlike Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan, as well as Moldova and Belarus
    have not yet determined their position in priorities: whether to
    choose the European way or to finally head for Russia.
    04.12.2008 GMT+04:00

    South Caucasus states made another step towards European
    integration. The European Commission decided to back the initiative of
    `Eastern Partnership', which presupposes closer cooperation with
    Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Moldova, and the Ukraine. According to
    Jose Manuel Barroso, the Commission president, only with strong
    political will and commitment on both sides will the Eastern
    Partnership achieve its objective of political association and
    economic integration. `We need to make an even greater investment in
    mutual stability and prosperity. This will be quickly compensated by
    important political and economic benefits and will lead to more
    stability and security both for the EU and for our Eastern partners,'
    Barroso stated.

    /PanARMENIAN.Net/ After August 2008 developments in the Caucasus, as
    well as in the whole world sped up, and `Eastern Partnership' was
    adopted to keep the balance of power upset on the post-Soviet
    territory. In our opinion, with this move the EU first of all aims to
    cut down Russia's influence and power in the region, as well as to
    have a more unyielding position in talks with Moscow. After the latest
    NATO summit in Brussels, when Georgia and Ukraine were refused into
    Membership Action Plan (MAP), stance of the West in the region may
    become more vulnerable. Unlike Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan, as
    well as Moldova and Belarus have not yet determined their position in
    priorities: whether to choose the European way or to finally head for
    Russia. On the whole, in either case the post-Soviet countries are
    subject to obedience, and it is still a question which Big Brother
    would be better to choose. In fact, in such cases the notion of good
    or bad is generally replaced by the concept of
    «expediency», and there is no choice as such. Neither
    are there clear perspectives as to the outcome of partnership with the
    EU or Russia.

    The draft communique proposes holding an "Eastern Partnership Summit"
    in June 2009 to launch the project. Follow-up meetings of EU and
    Eastern Partnership foreign ministers are to take place each Spring,
    while "Senior officials" from the "27 + 5(6)" countries are to meet
    twice yearly to prepare for the ministerials. The European Partnership
    is to raise the EU's per capita spending in the region twice by 2013
    and 3.3 times by 2020. The shift will cost Ð?2.1 billion, atop
    the lost income of Ð?75 million per year as a result of waiving
    EU visa costs. Under the EU's `Eastern Partnership' initiative, talks
    would be conducted on creating visa free travel in the long-term, the
    six countries ` Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova and
    Ukraine ` would be eligible for comprehensive free trade agreements,
    and EU-funded educational, environmental and energy supply exchange
    programmes would be organized.

    According to The Financial Times, the plan's primary purpose is to
    raise the EU's profile and reinforce political and economic stability
    in the area between the 27-nation bloc and Russia ` a region that
    Dmitry Medvedev, the Russian president, laid claim to as a
    `privileged' sphere of influence after the fighting in Georgia.

    In the words of Karen Bekaryan, Head of the `European Integration'
    NGO, changing the format of relations between the EU and the European
    Neighborhood Policy (ENP) states was dictated by time and by the
    problems that the ENP faced in the process of its realization. `As to
    the benefit Armenia can derive from the Eastern Partnership, it's
    apparent. New programs will be launched, economic cooperation will
    expand; Armenia will be rendered assistance in implementation of
    reforms it needs so much,' Bekaryan noted.

    However, Azerbaijan has a different view on the matter. According to
    Azeri political analyst Zardusht Alizade, democracy ideals are alien
    to the current Azerbaijani leadership, that is why instead of getting
    down to work, it will take to imitation. `Some laws will definitely be
    amended, but, most apparently, they will not work. Any measures
    suggested under the program `Eastern Partnership' and aimed at
    creation of active civil society in Azerbaijan will be met with bitter
    hostility by the authorities. The latter have no state, and,
    accordingly, they see no point for Azerbaijan to integrate into the
    EU,' Alizade believes. And, basically, he is right. Official Baku
    greatly fears democracy, which will not tolerate intimidating the
    public and making a fool of them. As for EU membership, Azerbaijan,
    like Armenia, is still too far from it. But unlike Armenia that either
    by word of mouth or in practice does not yearn for integration into
    the European Union, as it can see by Turkey's example how difficult it
    is, Azerbaijan for some reason is sure that sooner or later it will
    become a EU member and for the sake of oil which, by the way, will
    soon be over Brussels should turn a blind eye to complete absence of
    democracy in the country. Though, if the pipelines continue
    functioning, violation of human rights can be treated quietly, but
    it's a long way in the future and Turkey's example is again
    educational. No matter how hard Ankara tried, Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan did
    not serve as a permit to Europe in spite of the fact that certain
    reforms are being carried out in Turkey - though slowly, unwillingly,
    something is being done anyway. Baku lacks even slow development,
    which cannot be said about Armenia. And, as we have mentioned more
    than once, it may even happen so, that with successful course of
    events and with a change of balance in the region, Armenia should
    become a EU member sooner than Turkey. And in that case `Eastern
    Partnership' might serve as an additional stimulus for Armenia to
    refuse care from Moscow.

    Karine Ter-Sahakyan
    «PanARMENIAN.NetÂ&#xB B; analytical department
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