Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

An Existential Lebanese Choice?

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • An Existential Lebanese Choice?

    AN EXISTENTIAL LEBANESE CHOICE?
    by Harry Hagopian

    Newropeans Magazine
    http://www.newropeans-magazine.org/conten t/view/8742/1/
    Dec 11 2008
    France

    Over the years, many analysts have lost their political periscopes
    in the treacherous sands of Lebanese politics. Today there are four
    largely inter-related and major issues at the epicentre of the Lebanese
    political discord: the national pan-confessional dialogue under the
    auspices of the president of the republic, the future of arms in
    the hands of different political groups and militias, the future of
    Palestinian refugees and the decisive impetus that Christians will
    in all likelihood inject into the forthcoming parliamentary elections
    of 2009...

    Over the years, many analysts have lost their political periscopes in
    the treacherous sands of Lebanese politics. First, there were "civil
    wars" for almost fifteen years that tore the country up and set it
    aflame. Then, the TaÃ"f Accords ostensibly stepped in to redress the
    ornery behaviour of its leaders but ended up curbing the powers of the
    president of the republic or its Christian communities and admittedly
    placed the country under an Anjar-centred Syrian tutelage. Much later,
    the country witnessed the Independence Intifada of 2005 when new
    neo-revolutionary values unfurled on the streets and vied with older
    realities. But despite all those upheavals, the Cedars of Lebanon have
    remained a political conundrum as they have wrestled time and again
    with sectarian uncertainties let alone political infidelities. Lebanon
    celebrated on 22nd November its much-cherished 65th Independence Day,
    but unlike the Israeli-Palestinian or Iraqi conflicts that exhibit a
    set of unflinching core issues, one can never presume to predict what
    political ghoul would come out of which Lebanese corner at any moment.

    Today, I would suggest that there are four largely inter-related and
    major issues at the epicentre of the Lebanese political discord. They
    consist of the national pan-confessional dialogue under the auspices
    of the president of the republic, the future of arms in the hands of
    different political groups and militias, the future of Palestinian
    refugees both inside and outside their camps and last but not least
    the decisive impetus that Christians will in all likelihood inject
    into the forthcoming parliamentary elections of 2009.

    The national dialogue: in some way, it is a by-product of the Doha
    main deal that facilitated the election of a new president and the
    formation of a "national unity" cabinet that houses diametrically
    opposite standpoints. It was also meant to foster reconciliation
    between the warring factions and address the unresolved standoff about
    the legitimacy of arms outside the remit of the army. This dialogical
    exercise, I believe, would only be a cosmetic exercise that does not
    have much chance for real progress but will nonetheless hopefully
    keep the peace amongst major players who have committed publicly to
    the Doha process. It could also be a catalyst in restraining all
    parties from unilateral and bellicose moves that would wrench the
    lid off the present insecure calm.

    The future of arms that Hizbullah, the Party of God, has in its
    possession: this is meant to be a central plank for the national
    reconciliation dialogue. However, most seasoned commentators are aware
    that this issue cannot be resolved before the parliamentary elections
    in the spring of 2009. No way will this party, let alone its allies
    or protagonists, surrender their arms whilst they maintain the need
    for resistance against an Israel that still occupies small plots of
    Lebanese land and exhibits what they consider an expansionist threat
    on the country. So much so in fact that the Free Patriotic Movement
    leader General Michel Aoun returned from a recent visit to Iran and
    presented his blueprint for a national defence strategy that is
    based on his 2005 Memorandum of Understanding with Hizbullah. It
    called for combining the Resistance and the Lebanese army into a
    "community resistance" that would command the loyalty and resources
    of the state along with all its institutions and citizens. What this
    blueprint for a defence strategy actually imputed is a negation of
    the need for UNSC Resolutions 1701 and 1559.

    But this blueprint that aims to mobilise all the citizens of the state
    could become another dangerous recipe for further civil wars. As the
    leader of the Progressive Socialist Party Walid Jumblatt counter-argued
    in the weekly newsletter al-Anba'a, General Aoun's proposition would
    transform Lebanon into a "constant war field, which topples stability,
    torpedoes investment and increases emigration." Taken one step nearer
    toward at least one of its logical conclusions, Jumblatt's viewpoint
    translates into the fact that the state is the sole authority, and that
    any defence strategy that does not respect the pluralism of the state
    cannot be taken into consideration in any future discussions. After
    all, was the temporary takeover of the western districts of Beirut
    by Hizbullah and Amal elements on the fateful night of 7th May not
    a dangerously implicit manifestation of consensus by coercion?

    The future of Palestinian refugees: to start with the tactical
    considerations, it is helpful to recall that disarming Palestinian
    factions outside the camps was meant to have already been decided
    during the first national dialogue in 2006 prior to the war with
    Israel in July. So their status strictu sensu is not in my legal
    opinion lite pendente anymore. However, political calculations have
    prevented implementing its provisions practically on the ground.

    Insofar as the Palestinian camps are concerned, it is also important to
    recall that the idea of tawtin (or the granting of residency through
    Lebanese citizenship to those refugees in the camps across Lebanon)
    that would push up the Sunni quota in the country if ever implemented
    is a political non-sequitur used by politicians as a ruse to prop
    up their own political ends. The Lebanese government, and the PLO as
    the legitimate representative of the Palestinian people, have already
    agreed that no tawtin will occur in Lebanon since such a move would
    undermine inter alia the validity under International law of UNSC
    194 calling for the right of return [to their homelands].

    Indeed, the Palestinian-Lebanese Dialogue Committee (LPDC) works
    pan-politically to defuse such malingering chronicles, as well as to
    rebuild Nahr el Bared near Tripoli that was destroyed substantially
    following the battles between the Lebanese army and the Fatah al
    Islam radical movement. It also strives to improve the long-standing
    and truly deplorable conditions in some of those camps. Such efforts
    must not only be maintained, but also re-doubled seriously, without
    opening rifts between the Lebanese and Palestinian peoples that would
    be a throwback to the bloody battles three decades ago. Moreover,
    the issue of tawtin should not be dragged into the electoral ring by
    the Cassandras of Lebanon who believe that purveying bad news would
    inevitably strengthen their flanks.

    Christian performance in the forthcoming elections: all my contacts
    with different Lebanese pundits confirm that the battle for Christian
    votes will arguably be the hub of political alliances or lobbies in
    the months ahead. The recent Shi'i-Sunni 'summit' between Sayyed Hassan
    Nasrallah and Sa'ad Hariri resulted in a 'reconciliation' of sorts with
    both leaders excluding any electoral alliance between them. So the
    Sunni and Shi'i seats are almost clear pickings in most districts -
    with few notable exceptions. Even a putative future meeting between
    Walid Jumblatt and Hassan Nasrallah will in my opinion not result
    in any electoral pact and therefore cannot alter substantially the
    calculus of their respective seats in the next parliament. All this
    leaves the Christian candidates to fight it out amongst themselves -
    cleaved as they are between the March 8th and 14th coalitions.

    But the present dynamics are dangerous as they reflect Christian
    tensions inter partes that have not mimicked the corresponding easing
    of tensions within Muslim camps. This has led to occasional verbal
    attacks against the institutional pillars of Christian society,
    namely the Maronite patriarch and even the president. With baffling
    alliances so characteristic of Lebanese intra-politics, one way of
    engendering support seems to be through the dangerous exhumation of
    past demons and animosities. There is real fear as to the outcome of
    those votes in view of the way that candidates are being chosen by
    the different parties. Indeed, with diametrically opposite political
    platforms, strategies and even expectations, I would suggest that the
    Christian voter is faced with clear-cut choices that are not solely
    binary but also organic in their ramifications on the overall future
    of the country.

    This is why we keep hearing alarm bells hither and thither, with
    dichotomous positions over the impact of the TaÃ"f Accords, and
    international alliances and regional influences being exercised by
    Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Syria and Iran, let alone the USA and Europe,
    over issues that centre upon freedom, pluralism, religion and
    resistance. Indeed, Christian divisions can even be seen at the
    micro-level of national governance. Just observe how the small
    but influential Armenian parties - namely the Tashnag party - have
    heretofore broken their legendary collective neutrality in support
    of the presidential powers-to-be and have now forged new cross-party
    political alliances.

    In fact, this sense of constant political realignments is becoming a
    talking point of the forthcoming parliamentary elections as everyone
    eyes the stance of President Michel Suleiman. It seems an independent,
    middle-of-the-road national parliamentary bloc that has a Christian
    ethos and owes its organic allegiance to the president is an idea
    that is rapidly gaining currency in the country. In fact, if such a
    bloc emerges after the parliamentary elections, it could conceivably
    sway the power politics of the country and affect the clout of both
    principal coalitions.

    However, such an emergent movement could damage General Aoun's
    electoral self-anointed position as sole Lebanese Christian
    leader. After all, the former deputy prime minister and Metn
    powerbroker Michel al-Murr has withdrawn from his bloc, a move
    that could tip the balance in the Metn and impact the neighbouring
    Kesrouan - alongside any probable Armenian shifts in their own
    electoral platforms. No wonder then that Syrian channels are trying
    to prevent such fragmentation by bolstering General Aoun's standing
    with Lebanese Christian constituents and proclaiming him "leader of
    Christians in the Orient" with an "historic mission" and an "objective,
    national Lebanese personality" who harbours "a strategic insight that
    understands Arab and regional powers."

    Another major underlying focus in all those alliances is the definition
    of the role Syria ought to play in Lebanon. There is a battle being
    waged between those supportive of an active role, and those who reject
    it, and Syria itself is heavily involved in spinning the outcome. All
    this explains somewhat the reason why an almost surreal episode played
    out on Syrian New TV quite recently, with the televised confessions
    of alleged Fatah al-Islam members attempting to discredit the March
    14th coalition in the person of Sa'ad Hariri's Sunni Al-Mustaqbal
    (Future) party by associating it with terrorism. But this ill-advised
    and frankly unpolished strategy seems to have yielded no concrete
    results. I understand that the prosecuting judge of the International
    Tribunal mandated by UNSC 1701 to look into the assassination of
    former Lebanese PM Rafik Hariri and 21 others on February 14 2005,
    as well as a string of subsequent political murders, is close to
    submitting his report to the UN Security Council.

    Mind you, logic would dictate that such allegedly "terrorist members"
    in Syrian custody should be handed over to the Lebanese authorities
    investigating those murders. After all, the 'security coordination'
    mooted between Lebanon and Syria following an earlier visit to
    Damascus by the Lebanese Interior Minister Ziad Baroud should fulfil
    its coordinating role within a clear judicial remit, or else the
    whole concept of 'coordination' becomes an Orwellian concept that
    would bear a less edifying intent.

    However, all polarisations, reservations and even fears surrounding
    the pending judgment of the tribunal should not stunt the progress
    of the much-touted diplomatic relations between Lebanon and
    Syria. Whether half the Lebanese populace likes it or not, Syria is
    one of the most critical players in Lebanon and the Arab World. Its
    larger global geo-strategic interests will not allow it to eclipse
    entirely - certainly not at the present time. The establishment
    of embassies between Lebanon and Syria before end-year is therefore
    quintessential. However, for such progress not to be merely ephemeral,
    it is important to proceed equally with the demarcation and proper
    control of borders. And given that Syria opposes such demarcation
    starting from the litigious zone of the Shaba'a Farms, I suggest
    initiating the process from the north, followed by a revision by a
    parliamentary commission of previous bilateral accords, and an enquiry
    by the International Red Cross into Lebanese citizens in Syrian gaols.

    Lebanon today is perched precariously between life and death,
    facing success and failure in co-equal dimensions. It is therefore
    vital for it to enter into a necessary accommodation with Syria that
    would introduce an element of stability into the region let alone
    into Lebanon itself but would definitively not jeopardise Lebanese
    territorial integrity or sovereignty. I admit candidly that this is a
    difficult balance in view of the different political variables at play,
    and I can observe how twisted French foreign diplomacy has become of
    late as President Nicolas Sarkozy tries to square the political circle
    by strengthening Lebanon as an independent state whilst re-introducing
    Syria onto the international scene and re-engaging with its regional
    responsibilities. But the fact remains that any other skewed outcome
    would mean that the parliamentary elections could well take place,
    but they will fail to unravel the Gordian knot that is undermining
    Lebanon and its hardy citizens.

    Perhaps what might be helpful is the introduction of a quality of
    change that respects the National Pact guaranteeing the coexistence
    of all communities in Lebanon, whilst also not shying away from the
    onus of renegotiating the structure of power in Lebanon. Without being
    a naïve theoretician, I judge that the president of the republic,
    alongside the UN as guarantor, could provide such a political egress
    from this standoff. But for such a development to germinate in the
    country, political leaders must desist from thinking or acting like
    militia or clan leaders anymore and metamorphose into statesmen
    who use the appropriate tools to build up government capacity and
    nation-building in a bottom-up process that reflects the real global
    architecture of our common future.

    Openly put, Lebanon requires an existential choice that would take
    it forward. Otherwise, what I fear we will witness in this period of
    electioneering - and also thereafter when the votes have been counted
    and the stalemates have re-surfaced in different formats and numbers
    - is not only a status quo ante but a much more perilous and radical
    heightening of tensions that could result in a screeching collision
    of the bullet with the ballot box.

    --Boundary_(ID_v9NKR3XG1iGWIfv9ypHHXQ)--
Working...
X