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THERE'S NO SMOKE WITHOUT FIRE
The Messenger
Dec 17 2008
Georgia
This is a popular Russian saying. We are using it here because
this column concerns Russia's conduct in the occupied territories
of Georgia.
Since Russia occupied parts of Georgia in August it has continually
reinforced its occupying army and is now introducing even more troops,
tanks and other assault weapons onto Georgian territory. Neither
Georgia nor the Western powers can do anything to stop this. This
already serious situation is being further aggravated by information
spread in the Georgian media that there is a real possibility of
Moscow repeating its aggression in a very short while, maybe before
the new US Administration starts fully functioning.
Some days ago Georgian news agency Media News reported that Putin had
recently considered two different plans to attack Georgia. One was
submitted by the Russian Defence Ministry, another by the External
Intelligence Service. The Defence Ministry plan was proposed by the
head of the General Headquarters of the Russian Armed Forces, Nikolai
Makarov, and envisages the storming and taking of Tbilisi as quickly
as possible, because if Georgia manages to introduce an efficient air
defence system Russian aviation will lose its effectiveness. Makarov's
plan envisages a sudden attack by airborne forces under the command
of General Evtukhovich and Russian paratroopers from the Tskhinvali
region town of Akhalgori, which would take approximately 3 hours. Other
Russian paratroopers will take Tbilisi International Airport and other
important sites in and around the capital, so that within the first
few hours of the conflict they will suppress the resistance of the
Georgian Armed Forces. At the same time, Russian troops will block
the Georgian central highway so that Georgian troops in the Western
part of the country will not be able to relieve Tbilisi.
Makarov's plan is confident that street fights and severe resistance
will take place in Tbilisi, but even in such a situation the Russian
political leadership should not take the decision to stop fulfilling
its intention.
The head of the External Intelligence Service, Mikhail Fradkov, has
greatly criticised Makarov's plan, saying that it may have no fault
from the military point of view but is politically unacceptable. The
Russian Intelligence Service is sure that storming Tbilisi will be
militarily successful, but Moscow must then forget about installing a
pro-Russian government in Georgia. The Russian Intelligence Service
also thinks that such a storming of Tbilisi might give the USA and
Turkey legal grounds to assist Georgia militarily. Its bosses have
offered Putin an alternative plan: a blockade of Tbilisi. According
to this, Russian paratroopers will occupy Poti and block the
Tbilisi-Gori highway so that Georgian troops cannot reach the
capital. Simultaneously Russian troops deployed in Armenia will
block all the roads entering Georgia from the south, thus preventing
humanitarian cargo from reaching Tbilisi through Batumi and Turkey. At
the same time, serious pressure will be put on Azerbaijan, to prevent
it sending humanitarian assistance to Georgia. This plan envisages
creating a humanitarian catastrophe in the capital within a fortnight,
and the fall of Tbilisi, bloodlessly, in a few days.
Georgian commentators think such a thing is possible. Military analyst
Irakli Sesiashvili told Versia newspaper that he suspects this idea
of Russia's intentions is close to reality, and could become so in
a shorter period than we could imagine. It should be said that if
Georgia takes some serious and efficient steps immediately, Russia's
plans will be frustrated. But Georgia will suffer if Moscow starts
implementing either plan. Both these options are wicked, and one more
barbaric than the other.
Maybe we could suggest that such speculations about external threats
are being deliberately broadcast to divert people's attention from
internal problems. But in late spring and early summer of this year
the Georgian media disseminated information about a possible Russian
attack in August. This warning was ignored by our Western friends,
but the attack happened. Russia again has the means to create any kind
of provocation, its politicians are sure they can persuade European
leaders not to interfere, and the US is in the process of transition
from old to new administration.
The Russians say it - No smoke without fire.
The Messenger
Dec 17 2008
Georgia
This is a popular Russian saying. We are using it here because
this column concerns Russia's conduct in the occupied territories
of Georgia.
Since Russia occupied parts of Georgia in August it has continually
reinforced its occupying army and is now introducing even more troops,
tanks and other assault weapons onto Georgian territory. Neither
Georgia nor the Western powers can do anything to stop this. This
already serious situation is being further aggravated by information
spread in the Georgian media that there is a real possibility of
Moscow repeating its aggression in a very short while, maybe before
the new US Administration starts fully functioning.
Some days ago Georgian news agency Media News reported that Putin had
recently considered two different plans to attack Georgia. One was
submitted by the Russian Defence Ministry, another by the External
Intelligence Service. The Defence Ministry plan was proposed by the
head of the General Headquarters of the Russian Armed Forces, Nikolai
Makarov, and envisages the storming and taking of Tbilisi as quickly
as possible, because if Georgia manages to introduce an efficient air
defence system Russian aviation will lose its effectiveness. Makarov's
plan envisages a sudden attack by airborne forces under the command
of General Evtukhovich and Russian paratroopers from the Tskhinvali
region town of Akhalgori, which would take approximately 3 hours. Other
Russian paratroopers will take Tbilisi International Airport and other
important sites in and around the capital, so that within the first
few hours of the conflict they will suppress the resistance of the
Georgian Armed Forces. At the same time, Russian troops will block
the Georgian central highway so that Georgian troops in the Western
part of the country will not be able to relieve Tbilisi.
Makarov's plan is confident that street fights and severe resistance
will take place in Tbilisi, but even in such a situation the Russian
political leadership should not take the decision to stop fulfilling
its intention.
The head of the External Intelligence Service, Mikhail Fradkov, has
greatly criticised Makarov's plan, saying that it may have no fault
from the military point of view but is politically unacceptable. The
Russian Intelligence Service is sure that storming Tbilisi will be
militarily successful, but Moscow must then forget about installing a
pro-Russian government in Georgia. The Russian Intelligence Service
also thinks that such a storming of Tbilisi might give the USA and
Turkey legal grounds to assist Georgia militarily. Its bosses have
offered Putin an alternative plan: a blockade of Tbilisi. According
to this, Russian paratroopers will occupy Poti and block the
Tbilisi-Gori highway so that Georgian troops cannot reach the
capital. Simultaneously Russian troops deployed in Armenia will
block all the roads entering Georgia from the south, thus preventing
humanitarian cargo from reaching Tbilisi through Batumi and Turkey. At
the same time, serious pressure will be put on Azerbaijan, to prevent
it sending humanitarian assistance to Georgia. This plan envisages
creating a humanitarian catastrophe in the capital within a fortnight,
and the fall of Tbilisi, bloodlessly, in a few days.
Georgian commentators think such a thing is possible. Military analyst
Irakli Sesiashvili told Versia newspaper that he suspects this idea
of Russia's intentions is close to reality, and could become so in
a shorter period than we could imagine. It should be said that if
Georgia takes some serious and efficient steps immediately, Russia's
plans will be frustrated. But Georgia will suffer if Moscow starts
implementing either plan. Both these options are wicked, and one more
barbaric than the other.
Maybe we could suggest that such speculations about external threats
are being deliberately broadcast to divert people's attention from
internal problems. But in late spring and early summer of this year
the Georgian media disseminated information about a possible Russian
attack in August. This warning was ignored by our Western friends,
but the attack happened. Russia again has the means to create any kind
of provocation, its politicians are sure they can persuade European
leaders not to interfere, and the US is in the process of transition
from old to new administration.
The Russians say it - No smoke without fire.