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KOLEROV: WHAT RUSSIA DID DURING CRISIS IN THE CAUCASUS PREVENTED ITS GLOBAL GEOPOLITICAL DEFEAT
Dmitry Yermolayev
WPS Agency
DEFENSE and SECURITY (Russia)
December 24, 2008 Wednesday
Russia
AN INTERVIEW WITH REGNUM NEWS AGENCY MANAGING DIRECTOR MODEST KOLEROV;
An interview with Regnum News Agency Managing Director Modest Kolerov.
Question: How would you appraise the year of 2008? What were its
central events?
Modest Kolerov: Crisis and deployment of the Russian army in
hostilities abroad, the first such experience in two decades. The way
I see it, President Dmitry Medvedev Enhanced Coverage LinkingDmitry
Medvedev -Search using: Biographies Plus News News, Most Recent
60 Days formulated a new policy with regard to nearby foreign
countries. Bilateral contacts with these countries are to take
precedence over inefficient coalitions.
Question: What conclusions if any did the Russian authorities draw
from the crisis in the Caucasus?
Modest Kolerov: First, that Russia should be always ready for nasty
surprises. Second, that no foreign political rhetorics will protect
national interests or spare Russia outright hostility.
Question: This new doctrine of relations with post-Soviet
states... What are its prospects?
Modest Kolerov: This is a doctrine of the zones of privileged
interests. Acknowledgement of the reality will be the worst problem
encountered in the course of promotion of the doctrine. We have to
acknowledge the fact that foreign structures have all but killed
the idea of a new European security framework. They even torpedoed -
or at least tried to - the more understandable platform of stability
and security suggested by Turkey.
The West needs time to recover from the shocking discovery of its own
inefficiency. The West has been shown that its provocative militarist
behavior backfires.
As a matter of fact, the Western community is already recovering from
the shock. It found a scapegoat to pin the blame on - Saakashvili
the mad.
I expect no changes in connection with the future US Administration. It
is clear I believe that the West is not going to make NATO and other
Euro-Atlantic structures less aggressive.
Question: What do you expect in terms of processes of integration in
the Commonwealth?
Modest Kolerov: They will continue against the background of
ever increasing impoverishment and problems fomented by the
global crisis. Sure, unification with Belarus would have been
better on grounds and in the conditions healthier than Belarussian
default. Still, it will but offer additional stimuli for a common
economic zone. Same goes for Kazakhstan, by the way.
As for the CIS Collective Security Treaty Organization, I reckon that
it will keep restricting its influence and importance as a defense
alliance as well as its importance as an organization that requires
a great deal of solidarity. Not merely because Medvedev called it
an organization which is political first and military second. And
not because Organization Secretary General Bordyuzha said that
every member state is entitled to its own decision with regard to
Abkhazia and South Ossetia, i.e. their recognition. Not even because
this whole Organization flatly refuses to acknowledge the problem
of Nagorno-Karabakh, a vital problem for one of the members of the
Organization. It will simply happen. Importance of bilateral contacts
will keep increasing.
Question: Do you think Russia has sufficient mechanisms for promotion
of a foreign policy in the post-Soviet zone?
Modest Kolerov: No, I don't think so. What really counts, however,
is that the foreign political measures our adversaries take are
usually combined - and that goes for all measures from humanitarian to
economic to political to military. We lack any even remotely analogous
consolidation. Interdepartmental rivalry and jealousy exists which in
itself is not bad. Whenever there is an energetic foreign policy, it is
this policy itself that formulates the agenda, and then even the least
energetic ministries and departments cannot help cleaning up their act.
Unfortunately, Russia's foreign policy comes down to reaction rather
than to action. I sincerely believe that Medvedev's and Putin's
decisions this August were truly heroic... I really mean it.
Question: Russia is back in the Caucasus. What consequences will the
recent developments foment?
Modest Kolerov: Well, problems do exist. There is the problem posed by
Georgia that lacks stability. There is Turkey and there is Azerbaijan,
each of these countries increasing its clout with Georgia. All of that
is putting Armenia, Russia's natural ally, in an even tighter blockade.
It is clear that should the Western community offer Georgia and
Azerbaijan some form of conditional or reduced membership in NATO (say,
without the voting rights but so that their military infrastructure
will be complete absorbed by the Alliance's), Armenia will be placed
in a position where it will have to aspire to NATO membership too. It
will be its only way out.
Russia's actions this August spared it a global geopolitical defeat. On
the other hand, what it accomplished did not solve all of the problems
by a long shot.
Question: What do you expect from the Karabakh situation now?
Modest Kolerov: Armenia's adversaries will do everything in their power
to have Armenia withdraw from the security zone without guarantees
of Karabakh's future status.
Question: What about Ukraine then?
Modest Kolerov: Ukraine is drowning in a socioeconomic chaos. It's
of paramount importance for Russia not to be lured into pursuing
false objectives where Ukraine is concerned. Same goes for Ukraine,
by the way. In the meantime, a false objective is being forced
on Ukraine these days. I mean the conflict in the Crimea. There
are no Russian-Ukrainian conflicts on the peninsula. It is a
Slav-Tatar conflict that is more likely there. The Crimean Tatars
lack consolidation themselves because the Mejlis represents only
about one third of the Crimean Tatar population. It is certain
external forces that would like Kiev (and Moscow for that matter)
to concentrate on this false conflict. Yuschenko will definitely
benefit from a conflict, meaning that Russia should always remember
that it is walking on thin ice.
Question: A few words on Central Asia now. Considering the global
financial crisis, do you think it's possible to avoid a social
explosion in the region? Will Russia have to step in?
Modest Kolerov: I think the explosion is inevitable and there is
preciously little Russia can do about it. Unfortunately, I do not think
that our leadership is fully aware of the gravity of the situation.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
Dmitry Yermolayev
WPS Agency
DEFENSE and SECURITY (Russia)
December 24, 2008 Wednesday
Russia
AN INTERVIEW WITH REGNUM NEWS AGENCY MANAGING DIRECTOR MODEST KOLEROV;
An interview with Regnum News Agency Managing Director Modest Kolerov.
Question: How would you appraise the year of 2008? What were its
central events?
Modest Kolerov: Crisis and deployment of the Russian army in
hostilities abroad, the first such experience in two decades. The way
I see it, President Dmitry Medvedev Enhanced Coverage LinkingDmitry
Medvedev -Search using: Biographies Plus News News, Most Recent
60 Days formulated a new policy with regard to nearby foreign
countries. Bilateral contacts with these countries are to take
precedence over inefficient coalitions.
Question: What conclusions if any did the Russian authorities draw
from the crisis in the Caucasus?
Modest Kolerov: First, that Russia should be always ready for nasty
surprises. Second, that no foreign political rhetorics will protect
national interests or spare Russia outright hostility.
Question: This new doctrine of relations with post-Soviet
states... What are its prospects?
Modest Kolerov: This is a doctrine of the zones of privileged
interests. Acknowledgement of the reality will be the worst problem
encountered in the course of promotion of the doctrine. We have to
acknowledge the fact that foreign structures have all but killed
the idea of a new European security framework. They even torpedoed -
or at least tried to - the more understandable platform of stability
and security suggested by Turkey.
The West needs time to recover from the shocking discovery of its own
inefficiency. The West has been shown that its provocative militarist
behavior backfires.
As a matter of fact, the Western community is already recovering from
the shock. It found a scapegoat to pin the blame on - Saakashvili
the mad.
I expect no changes in connection with the future US Administration. It
is clear I believe that the West is not going to make NATO and other
Euro-Atlantic structures less aggressive.
Question: What do you expect in terms of processes of integration in
the Commonwealth?
Modest Kolerov: They will continue against the background of
ever increasing impoverishment and problems fomented by the
global crisis. Sure, unification with Belarus would have been
better on grounds and in the conditions healthier than Belarussian
default. Still, it will but offer additional stimuli for a common
economic zone. Same goes for Kazakhstan, by the way.
As for the CIS Collective Security Treaty Organization, I reckon that
it will keep restricting its influence and importance as a defense
alliance as well as its importance as an organization that requires
a great deal of solidarity. Not merely because Medvedev called it
an organization which is political first and military second. And
not because Organization Secretary General Bordyuzha said that
every member state is entitled to its own decision with regard to
Abkhazia and South Ossetia, i.e. their recognition. Not even because
this whole Organization flatly refuses to acknowledge the problem
of Nagorno-Karabakh, a vital problem for one of the members of the
Organization. It will simply happen. Importance of bilateral contacts
will keep increasing.
Question: Do you think Russia has sufficient mechanisms for promotion
of a foreign policy in the post-Soviet zone?
Modest Kolerov: No, I don't think so. What really counts, however,
is that the foreign political measures our adversaries take are
usually combined - and that goes for all measures from humanitarian to
economic to political to military. We lack any even remotely analogous
consolidation. Interdepartmental rivalry and jealousy exists which in
itself is not bad. Whenever there is an energetic foreign policy, it is
this policy itself that formulates the agenda, and then even the least
energetic ministries and departments cannot help cleaning up their act.
Unfortunately, Russia's foreign policy comes down to reaction rather
than to action. I sincerely believe that Medvedev's and Putin's
decisions this August were truly heroic... I really mean it.
Question: Russia is back in the Caucasus. What consequences will the
recent developments foment?
Modest Kolerov: Well, problems do exist. There is the problem posed by
Georgia that lacks stability. There is Turkey and there is Azerbaijan,
each of these countries increasing its clout with Georgia. All of that
is putting Armenia, Russia's natural ally, in an even tighter blockade.
It is clear that should the Western community offer Georgia and
Azerbaijan some form of conditional or reduced membership in NATO (say,
without the voting rights but so that their military infrastructure
will be complete absorbed by the Alliance's), Armenia will be placed
in a position where it will have to aspire to NATO membership too. It
will be its only way out.
Russia's actions this August spared it a global geopolitical defeat. On
the other hand, what it accomplished did not solve all of the problems
by a long shot.
Question: What do you expect from the Karabakh situation now?
Modest Kolerov: Armenia's adversaries will do everything in their power
to have Armenia withdraw from the security zone without guarantees
of Karabakh's future status.
Question: What about Ukraine then?
Modest Kolerov: Ukraine is drowning in a socioeconomic chaos. It's
of paramount importance for Russia not to be lured into pursuing
false objectives where Ukraine is concerned. Same goes for Ukraine,
by the way. In the meantime, a false objective is being forced
on Ukraine these days. I mean the conflict in the Crimea. There
are no Russian-Ukrainian conflicts on the peninsula. It is a
Slav-Tatar conflict that is more likely there. The Crimean Tatars
lack consolidation themselves because the Mejlis represents only
about one third of the Crimean Tatar population. It is certain
external forces that would like Kiev (and Moscow for that matter)
to concentrate on this false conflict. Yuschenko will definitely
benefit from a conflict, meaning that Russia should always remember
that it is walking on thin ice.
Question: A few words on Central Asia now. Considering the global
financial crisis, do you think it's possible to avoid a social
explosion in the region? Will Russia have to step in?
Modest Kolerov: I think the explosion is inevitable and there is
preciously little Russia can do about it. Unfortunately, I do not think
that our leadership is fully aware of the gravity of the situation.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress